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Qordel
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:21:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Qordel on 20/01/2009 22:21:51 This past weekend, we reached 48,000 online. With the M10 expansion being in retail stores, we will certainly see some new records. I don't think we have the current numbers on how many copies are being shipped to how many stores across what regions, but what do you predict the highest record we will reach between M10 and the Winter Expansion will be?
My prediction is that it will climax at 56,000 at some point during that period and then not increase beyond it until at least the Winter Expansion. I suspect CCP will report a playerbase of 320,000 people by the Winter Expansion, also (assuming they are currently at the 300,000 they tend to claim).
While I expect a few major MMO related sites to announce the expansion and the retail version, I do not expect Xplay or Giant Bomb or any other major sites cover it, Reviewers and game related content producers tend to hear "EVE" and think "oh, that's the game from like 2003, right?". And with even more limited staffing resources than ever, I suspect they won't afford much coverage to this game. Otherwise, I would estimate a much higher climax than 56,000.
So... your prediction on either/both stats?
PS: I hope this thread catches on so that it replaces the "Any hot dudes play EVE?" thread as my biggest thread on eve-search. I suspect that thread, done in jest, may give people the wrong impression about me. Not that there'd be anything wrong with that. --
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Nova Fox
Gallente Novafox Shipyards
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:25:00 -
[2]
thought we where past the 330k mark as of the ny comic con =============
Pre Order your Sisters of Eve ship today |
Blastil
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:25:00 -
[3]
I suspect a massive rise in lowsec ganks in the 72 hours after the expansion's release.
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Zeba
Minmatar Pator Tech School
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:33:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Blastil I suspect a massive rise in lowsec ganks in the 72 hours after the expansion's release.
Indeed but that number will pale to insignificance compared to all the 'newb' rant threads our lovely proffesional forum trolls will have queued up in notepad to spam the forums with. You know the ones: "wtf i just started playing yestarday and i gotz killed buy sum mean guyz after takin sum stuff from a can in a belt labled 'free stuff' omg ccp nerf this nerf that or i emoragekwit and eve be a dyin playce without my moniez! u suk cccpz!!!! omgomg...."
inappropriate signature. ~WeatherMan |
Fujiko MaXjolt
Caldari Templar Republic Arcane Alliance
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:36:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Zeba stuff
That's funny, I was just thinking about all the "OMGWTF UBER LAG UNPLAYABLE GAME!!!" threads we're gonna see from the people that wander into jita/motsu/etc and lag out for some reason or other (yes, this still happens on some machines)
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Dirk Magnum
Royal Hiigaran Navy
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:37:00 -
[6]
There's always hope that the long-awaited improvement to the new player experience is included in M10. Specifically, a mandatory set of messages headed with "ATTN: MAYBE YOU PLAYED OTHER MMO'S BEFORE, BUT HERE'S HOW IT WORKS IN OUR WORLD. RULE #1: "THIS GAME IS TOO HARD" WHINES WILL NOT BE TOLERATED."
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Gnomes Rock
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Posted - 2009.01.20 22:37:00 -
[7]
By M10 the old, unsubbed people using the 5 days trial of Eve offer will be gone again, so i'm expecting maybe 50-51k online.
-also realising that if i'm way off someone will quote this. |
Mia Sin
Amarr
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Posted - 2009.01.20 23:18:00 -
[8]
I wonder if Rookie Help will explode. Would also be interesting to know if it'll get 23/7 moderation or if they are fine with it being completely jammed by ISK spam and lots of newbies who don't have the slightest idea how to block the spam. |
Qordel
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2009.01.20 23:20:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Mia Sin I wonder if Rookie Help will explode. Would also be interesting to know if it'll get 23/7 moderation or if they are fine with it being completely jammed by ISK spam and lots of newbies who don't have the slightest idea how to block the spam.
You can't block the spam. You can only block a limited number of people once they have already spammed, which does little good with the quantity of spamming accounts out there. :/ |
Dirk Magnum
Royal Hiigaran Navy
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Posted - 2009.01.20 23:57:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Gnomes Rock Since when weren't whines tolerated? I look around this forum and see constant whining. Hell, even newbie guides are disguised whines nowadays. (i'm looking at you Bellum)
Well not anti-whine in general, but anti-"new players whining about how this game isn't like other MMO's, without having played this game for any substantial length of time" whines. |
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Qordel
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2009.01.21 00:00:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Dirk Magnum
Originally by: Gnomes Rock Since when weren't whines tolerated? I look around this forum and see constant whining. Hell, even newbie guides are disguised whines nowadays. (i'm looking at you Bellum)
Well not anti-whine in general, but anti-"new players whining about how this game isn't like other MMO's, without having played this game for any substantial length of time" whines.
Ten thousand additional people calling things a god damned "toon". Grr. |
Armoured C
Gallente Federation of Freedom Fighters Executive Outcomes
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Posted - 2009.01.21 00:58:00 -
[12]
ooh that was good
oooh wrong type of climax LMAO |
Qordel
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2009.01.21 01:03:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Armoured C ooh that was good
oooh wrong type of climax LMAO
No, that's pretty much how I have reacted to every expansion. :) |
Kessiaan
Minmatar Army of One
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Posted - 2009.01.21 02:48:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Qordel I do not expect Xplay or Giant Bomb or any other major sites cover it, Reviewers and game related content producers tend to hear "EVE" and think "oh, that's the game from like 2003, right?".
Mainstream gaming publications get more irrelevant every day. Why do you think they keep downsizing / going out of business?
Myself and everyone I know trusts peer reviews more than official reviews (as official reviews are universally seen as biased anymore), the few people I know who still get gaming magazines view them as secondary to online news sources, and only look at online gaming sites to see what's coming up that's new and read (again, peer) reviews.
I don't think the big sites will say much about the box other than, maybe, "CCP released a boxed version of EvE online, that game from 2003 that we never really understood and don't see how 300K people are still playing". But since you can get the game online for free whenever you want, I don't think the box is targeted at the same people who read these sites. It's more for people who *don't* read any kind of gaming news who've never heard of EvE before - there's lots and lots and lots of those people, you know.
And it'll be just the like the free trial, only with extra-long 60-day trials. Many will try, some will stay, most won't. In the end EvE will be more populated with more people to shoot at though, so it's a good thing :). |
Zeba
Minmatar Pator Tech School
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Posted - 2009.01.21 04:26:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Kessiaan And it'll be just the like the free trial, only with extra-long 60-day trials. Many will try, some will stay, most won't. In the end EvE will be more populated with more people to shoot at though, so it's a good thing :).
Exactly. What people should be doing now is not worrying about the new skill set for t3 or how pretty the new effects will be but rather how can they take advantage of the incoming hoards.
inappropriate signature. ~WeatherMan |
Qordel
Caldari School of Applied Knowledge
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Posted - 2009.01.21 04:53:00 -
[16]
If the mainstream gaming resources don't cover it, it doesn't get much press. If it doesn't get much press, you don't know it exists. You can not simply rely on a swarm of people randomly stumbling onto your game on a shelf in a store. |
Zeba
Minmatar Pator Tech School
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Posted - 2009.01.21 05:01:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Qordel If the mainstream gaming resources don't cover it, it doesn't get much press. If it doesn't get much press, you don't know it exists. You can not simply rely on a swarm of people randomly stumbling onto your game on a shelf in a store.
One would assume that if they are going through atari for the retail distribution that they will do all the normal media things like tv adverts, magazine ads and the plethora of other things you do at the time of a retail release. The media spam will probably commence a few weeks before it hits the shelves. |
CHAOS100
Widowmakers
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Posted - 2009.01.21 05:03:00 -
[18]
I hope it will be in PC gamer US version, other wise i will be pretty ****ed off, considering they get every WoW expansions and Lotro and give them a review and rating, but no word on eve except its relatively low rating in 2003. Maybe the boxed released will be considered an expansion. The story about the GHSC heist did drag a lot of people to eve after they read how in depth the game could be. |
Kyra Felann
Gallente Noctis Fleet Technologies
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Posted - 2009.01.21 05:06:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Qordel
Originally by: Dirk Magnum
Originally by: Gnomes Rock Since when weren't whines tolerated? I look around this forum and see constant whining. Hell, even newbie guides are disguised whines nowadays. (i'm looking at you Bellum)
Well not anti-whine in general, but anti-"new players whining about how this game isn't like other MMO's, without having played this game for any substantial length of time" whines.
Ten thousand additional people calling things a god damned "toon". Grr.
Oh gawd. I can handle an influx of newbies who expect this game to be WoW in space, but I can't handle "toon". |
Diek Ran
Amarr Autonums
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Posted - 2009.01.21 05:21:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Dirk Magnum There's always hope that the long-awaited improvement to the new player experience is included in M10. Specifically, a mandatory set of messages headed with "ATTN: MAYBE YOU PLAYED OTHER MMO'S BEFORE, BUT HERE'S HOW IT WORKS IN OUR WORLD. RULE #1: "THIS GAME IS TOO HARD" WHINES WILL NOT BE TOLERATED."
This rule is also perfectly suited for CPP game designers - please don't try to glue stuff on the game that is derived from other games' concepts. Be original and true to yourselves. Don't listen to any marketing analysts and other talking heads, they're here for bailouts, let them GTFO and concentrate on technical problems instead. The game earns the money, blabbering doesn't. |
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Nikita Alterana
Gallente The Antikythera Mechanism
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Posted - 2009.01.21 05:26:00 -
[21]
numbers go down in the summer so maybe there'll be an initial peak, but I suspect it will fall back down to the normal summer lull of 20-30k players, maybe with the M10 influx will get up into the low 40s but I doubt we'll be setting records until January when the snow traps everyone inside again. |
MotherMoon
Huang Yinglong
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Posted - 2009.01.21 05:43:00 -
[22]
Edited by: MotherMoon on 21/01/2009 05:44:06
Originally by: Nikita Alterana numbers go down in the summer so maybe there'll be an initial peak, but I suspect it will fall back down to the normal summer lull of 20-30k players, maybe with the M10 influx will get up into the low 40s but I doubt we'll be setting records until January when the snow traps everyone inside again.
the normal lull?
based on what, one summer?
2 summers ago the normal "lull" was 10-20,000 players.
the summer before that was 4-9,000 players
edit:I read the rest of your post
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Permadocked Panda
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Posted - 2009.01.21 08:43:00 -
[23]
Climax estimations? 30 seconds, give or take depending on which hand was used.
OWAIT
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Sade Onyx
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Posted - 2009.01.21 09:22:00 -
[24]
Im not at liberty to reveal my performance expectations of this product.
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Ratchman
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Posted - 2009.01.21 10:20:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Dirk Magnum There's always hope that the long-awaited improvement to the new player experience is included in M10. Specifically, a mandatory set of messages headed with "ATTN: MAYBE YOU PLAYED OTHER MMO'S BEFORE, BUT HERE'S HOW IT WORKS IN OUR WORLD. RULE #1: "THIS GAME IS TOO HARD" WHINES WILL NOT BE TOLERATED."
This can be seen as trying to put new players off before they've even started. If you put that rule in, can we also put in Rule #2: "This game is full of noobs" whines will not be tolerated.
You need to be a little more patient with new players, and help them into it. I had a friend who decided to give EVE a try. I took him through a few missions, explained quite a few things to him, and helped him get off the ground, so to speak. He loved the graphics, and the ships, but he just couldn't get on with the game. It was to steep a learning curve, and required too much attention for his liking. I suspected it wouldn't be his kind of game, but I gave him a chance to get to know it.
The point is, those people who find it too difficult, will naturally drop out after the initial period. You don't need to 'drive them off'. The worst you will have to put up with is a few questions in the chat windows.
Personally, I'd love to see an influx of players (as long as the lag doesn't get too bad, but with increased income should come bigger and better hardware). There are times I feel that EVE is a little underpopulated (although people do tend to naturally congregate around certain hubs), and I know there are plenty of pirates who will be itching to blast their noob asses out of the sky at the first given opportunity. |
Ratchman
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Posted - 2009.01.21 10:24:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Qordel If the mainstream gaming resources don't cover it, it doesn't get much press. If it doesn't get much press, you don't know it exists. You can not simply rely on a swarm of people randomly stumbling onto your game on a shelf in a store.
This is exactly how I found this game. Never even heard of it before I saw it on special offer ina shop and thought, "meh, I'll give it a go." |
Ratchman
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Posted - 2009.01.21 10:34:00 -
[27]
Originally by: CHAOS100 I hope it will be in PC gamer US version, other wise i will be pretty ****ed off, considering they get every WoW expansions and Lotro and give them a review and rating, but no word on eve except its relatively low rating in 2003. Maybe the boxed released will be considered an expansion. The story about the GHSC heist did drag a lot of people to eve after they read how in depth the game could be.
That's weird, In the UK version of PC Gamer, it got a very high review, and is still in their "recommended MMO" list, alongside WoW. They have had a number of articles on it since, although not as many as I'd like.
Guess it was just too much for the American reviewer. It does seem to have that effect on those more used to Grand Theft Auto-style instant action, than strategic thinking.
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