Salvos Rhoska wrote:I think you grossly underestimate how many pirates will appear in LS, after removing cynos means material transport is vulnerable, and removing caps removes overwhelming force.
We are talking about HUGE value moving, by necessity, through NS and HS, in both directions, daily, via gates, rather than lol-cynoing through it under a cap umbrella.
Hundreds, probably thousands of players/alts will redirect their efforts to intercepting them.
Yeah... I don't think it will work that way.
The server has between 20K and 40K logged in at most points. There are hundreds of low-sec routes for various null-sec organizations to travel on. While I agree you could have 500 additional gatecamping pirates at any time in low-sec... that would be more like 50 different 10-man gatecamps in various systems from non-aligned groups... not 500 massed along a single travel route.
The large null-sec groups will scout ahead of time. They'll know what is in the area. They're not going to make a run if there is a chance they'll lose. They'll KNOW it's a safe route because their enemies can't drop on them.
Then they'll move. They'll blob the heck out of the route... smashing through those various 10 man gatecamps with 200 member fleets. The freighters will start moving... and the opposition will have what.... 30 minutes? An hour? That's all they'll have to marshall up a somewhat organized fleet capable of taking down a 200 man operation and get it to one of maybe 5-10 systems in low-sec along the route without cynoing.
Those groups won't be stopped or even hindered by this. It will be the smaller null-sec renters, the low-sec residents, FW participants and a few members of larger alliances who are unwilling to wait for the organized ops who get picked off. It will literally be everyone BUT the largest null-sec groups.
This isn't like a reinforcement timer where everyone knows when the action is starting and both sides show up ready to go. This is one group dictating the place and time and the other trying to react in brief period. That's the advantage the null-sec groups with large numbers have. By taking away mechanics that let solo/small groups get their basic market logistics work done (which is what jump freighters do), you make it so that only those who can manage large scale "traditional" logistics can keep prospering.
And that's the large null-sec alliances.