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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.09 15:24:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Daerkannon Shimmerscale So.. thanks for the ISK!
Gratitude is best sent via Isk wire transfer!
My Latest Auction!! |
Daerkannon Shimmerscale
Gallente Paxton Industries Paxton Federation
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Posted - 2007.12.09 15:43:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Gratitude is best sent via Isk wire transfer![/justify]
I said I was grateful, not insane! --- Honest officer, the dwarf was on fire when I got here! Can't find a mechanical engineering agent? Need a non-Caldari Navy agent? http://www.eve-agents.com/ for all your agent needs! |
Amicus Pauperi
ASGARD SECURITY SHIPPING PRODUCTION SMASH Alliance
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Posted - 2007.12.09 20:07:00 -
[33]
Logistics issues since Trinity are keeping supply bottled up. Although I suspect Adv Mats will settle at a price higher than before - they are unlikely to stay this high. I predict one event in particular will cause prices to tank. Economic PvP - Cornering Jita 4-4 |
VScorpion
Gallente Koshaku Interstellar Starbase Syndicate
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Posted - 2007.12.10 12:40:00 -
[34]
I for my part can just state that this price hick is the best thing that has happened to me for quite a while but then it is starting to impact prices for raw materials quite a bit as well which makes me not quite the happy camper I could be. But what the hell... good times if you have a reaction chain in place atm
VScorpion
Please resize image to a maximum of 400 x 120, not exceeding 24000 bytes, ty. If you would like further details please mail [email protected] - Cortes |
Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.10 12:50:00 -
[35]
Yes, I started loading up on materials today and WOAH! Mother of an increse, damn the market took a wallop.
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Admiral Nova
Strike Team Nova
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Posted - 2007.12.10 13:37:00 -
[36]
At this downtime my POS dumped all the materials that it had failed to mine since the patch into the silos. Expect supply to pickup if bridges are fixed also. (not sure on that yet)
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Algorithm 5
Caldari Hakata Group Blade.
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Posted - 2007.12.11 11:48:00 -
[37]
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 11:55:29 You want the low down?
Here's what has happened.
1. Reactor cores for ships jump massively to sell new t2 ships at vastly inflated "new ship" prices.
2. People buy more in advance, to hedge against their Marauder production (since half the mission runners in eve will be buying them) pushing the prices even higher.
3. With profit rates on reactors at 20m per factory slot per day (even at 100k per reactor) the prices of the two dyspro and promethium advanced materials skyrockets.
4. As those two go up vastly, the prices of dysprosium and promethium go through the roof.
5. MOST of the market ignores the rest of the advanced materials market, concentrating on t2 invention etc.
6. Now speculators like me are convinced that the dyspro/promethium prices are here to stay, we factor those prices into our computer models.
7. The models tell us that there's about 6 intermediate and advanced materials (I'm not saying which) with massive stocks on the market at below the cost of production if you factor in the higher dyspro/promethium prices.
8. Those speculators focus on those materials, buy out the entire market, and move the prices for those goods to where the future stable price WILL be, factoring in the new dyspro prices.
And thus, specific intermediate and advanced materials double in price overnight.
For my part, I'll put my hand up and take responsibility for the Hyperflurite price spike, I grabbed about 80% of the market yesterday for 3b or so and by the time I got home from work and had access to investor funds from my alliance mates, the smaller players nabbed the rest.
Bought in at 7k, my computer model suggests 15-20k as the correct price.
Of course, the risk is that you get it wrong.
I also bought the entire heavy water market at 15-20 a while back, and it's still only at 55... I'd modelled something closer to 80-100 as the stable pricing once the Rorqual was switched to use it as fuel.
I'm still not sure who it's not at 100, although it's gradually creeping up, so I'm hoping it's just the insane stockpiles people had because of the supply imbalance slowly selling off.
But to summarise, the reason that advanced materials are spiking, is because there's people with large amounts of isk that are better at math than you :)
(and of course, mostly better than me) :)
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.11 12:19:00 -
[38]
Edited by: Tres Farmer on 11/12/2007 12:19:23
Originally by: Algorithm 5 You want the low down?
Hm.. not really. But I'm very thankfull (in words ) that you gave me (and the attendant readers naturally) some deeper insight.
Originally by: Algorithm 5 But to summarise, the reason that advanced materials are spiking, is because there's people with large amounts of isk that are better at math than you :)
(and of course, mostly better than me) :)
Hehe.. glad you added that last part with the edit, otherwise I would have replied something offending
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Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Atrum Tempestas Foedus
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:07:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Algorithm 5 Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 11:55:29 *stuff*
The doubling of compression lines is effectively halving Rorqual HW use. Plus there simply aren't enough Rorquals in use (nor will there ever be) to suck up all of the HW. The price is up obviously, but I can't imagine it hitting 80-100. ---- FREE Explorer Lead Megalomanic EVE Automated Influence Map |
Jon Asus
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:10:00 -
[40]
Anyone want 16.8k of Hexite and Ceramic Powder? It's 4 or 5 jumps out of Jita, msg me
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Algorithm 5
Caldari Hakata Group Blade.
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:18:00 -
[41]
Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 13:24:13 Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 13:20:41
Originally by: Verite Rendition
Originally by: Algorithm 5 Edited by: Algorithm 5 on 11/12/2007 11:55:29 *stuff*
The doubling of compression lines is effectively halving Rorqual HW use. Plus there simply aren't enough Rorquals in use (nor will there ever be) to suck up all of the HW. The price is up obviously, but I can't imagine it hitting 80-100.
My guess was mostly based on the observation that the base price of both are the same, and the 0.0 ice they come from in the highest quantities is also symmetrical.
That is, there's ice that gives twice as much ozone as hw (dark glitter), and vica versa.
Thus, MOST 0.0 volume miners SHOULD be mining at a 2-1 ozone to hq ratio if they can (and any Alliance with about half a region can).
It was obvious from the bargain basement prices that demand for ozone was more than twice that for HW, but there was no secondary market for the hw to get dumped to, unlike ozone (cynos get cheaper...) so the price of HW was trending to zero due to unusable excess supply.
The advent of a secondary market should have meant that the excess supply has a sink now (cheap, almost free, operation of the ore compression). Since profitability of ice mining is based on the composite prices for ozone, hw and stront, that should have meant a reduction in the ozone component of the equation, and an increase in the HW component.
As for the numbers of Rorquals though, you are right.
The hw price IS slowly rising though (although I suspect more reactor pos helps by a larger factor, since they consume enormous amounts of HW).
But I think you underestimate how much miners loath the refinery taxes at 0.0 outposts. They'll do quite a bit to avoid that 10% or 20%. So there SHOULD be a reasonable amount of compression on an ongoing basis in most 0.0 alliances.
The question is, will it be enough to push HW closer to price equality with ozone... even if it does hit my target price, TBH it's taken far FAR longer than I would have liked, but my stockpile is so large I can't just dump it on the market without crashing it, so it will take a while to clear it... so I'll wait it out and bail once I see price equality.
Or I could always just try feeding it into towers and treat it as the biggest HW hedging exercise ever :)
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.11 13:28:00 -
[42]
Edited by: Kirjava on 11/12/2007 13:29:17 The prices are probably there to stay for quite a while, the Ferrogel has increased dramaticly in price aswell as it snowballs together. I am allready facepalming that it doubled again last night..... bugger
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Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.12.11 17:27:00 -
[43]
I can't log in right now, don't suppose anyone could post a list of jita prices for advanced moon minerals?
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Maldad Asesino
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Posted - 2007.12.11 22:21:00 -
[44]
The ferrogel tip was cool, when I thought some more about it I found nanotransistors too were and are still way underpriced. Shouldn't be too hard making alot of money out of that!
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Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.11 23:07:00 -
[45]
Just ran over the data, assuming that all moon raw materials lock at what they are NOW, then ferrogel will probably level out ar arouns 18k/unit. This is largely due to Dysprosium reaching 57k/unit
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.11 23:29:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Kirjava Just ran over the data, assuming that all moon raw materials lock at what they are NOW, then ferrogel will probably level out ar arouns 18k/unit. This is largely due to Dysprosium reaching 57k/unit
Now that's cheating! I see ferrogel changing hands at still quite high prices. Way over 18K per unit, in many cases well over double that.
My Latest Auction!! |
Nyphur
Pillowsoft Total Comfort
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Posted - 2007.12.12 04:12:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Shar Tegral
Originally by: Kirjava Just ran over the data, assuming that all moon raw materials lock at what they are NOW, then ferrogel will probably level out ar arouns 18k/unit. This is largely due to Dysprosium reaching 57k/unit
Now that's cheating! I see ferrogel changing hands at still quite high prices. Way over 18K per unit, in many cases well over double that.
If you have been following the correlation between dysprosium/promethium prices and ferrogel prices, you'd realise that your 18k estimate is very conservative. I fully expect prices to be vastly in excess of 18k when they level out.
Eve-Tanking.com - We're sorry, something happened. |
Kylar Renpurs
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.12.12 05:52:00 -
[48]
Quote: 5. MOST of the market ignores the rest of the advanced materials market, concentrating on t2 invention etc.
I'd like to push that a little further saying that most of the T2 production market ignores each other part unless it's your part. Fatal mistake for a lot of people. Managed to save 25% on material costs on numerous occasions thanks to people selling massively below manufacture cost
Improve Market Competition! |
Arithron
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Posted - 2007.12.12 09:54:00 -
[49]
The reason for the massive upsurge in prices is demand (the main market driver) and the large increase in Dysprosium etc. 1 month ago Dysprosium was 14k a unit. I brought a load up and resold at 20k. It sold Thus, I wondered how high a price players would pay. I brought up at 25 (entire Jita stock) and resold initially at 44k a unit- it sold, although then a lot of stock went up for sale as players cashed in/hauled in.
Trinity hit- I brought up all Jita stock last Friday at 38k a unit, stuck it back on at 65k...guess what- all sold before others stuck more stock on for less. Guess I'll now just wait till prices fall down a little more from players undercutting etc, then try for a new ceiling...
Arithron
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Arithron
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Posted - 2007.12.12 10:00:00 -
[50]
There are other minerals that will increase by at least 25%, that most players are overlooking at the moment. With a little investigation, its not hard to see what they are....any of the new BPC will show you the way!
Speculation is an integral part of any economy. Smart investment (with a little elbow grease in researching possible future trends) lowers the risk of losing a vast fortune. It doesn't take a rocket scientist at the moment to see what the future trends will be. Of course, most players are too late to take any advantage of these trends...
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Tres Farmer
Gallente Federation Intelligence Service
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Posted - 2007.12.12 11:19:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Kylar Renpurs I'd like to push that a little further saying that most of the T2 production market ignores each other part unless it's your part. Fatal mistake for a lot of people. Managed to save 25% on material costs on numerous occasions thanks to people selling massively below manufacture cost
How do you know?
Different regions have different prices for different stuff at different times.. So, you're in NO POSITION whatsoever, for judging what kind of manufacturing costs any market sell order has.. you can assume, yes, but not more. And you can say if something is really undervalued (if the components in all regions never had been that cheap - like 'minerals I mine a free'). But you never can say how somebody calculations look like, so better stay quiet or use your money and capitalize on their stuff..
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Arithron
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Posted - 2007.12.12 23:23:00 -
[52]
Ahh, that mineral I was talking about earlier has already increased 12% today since DT.
With the tech 2 moon minerals being so high, and once the new ship production stabilises, anyone care to hazard a guess as to what level Dysprosium may stablise at? Pre-expansion prices???
Ari
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.12.12 23:51:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Arithron Anyone care to hazard a guess as to what level Dysprosium may stablise at? Pre-expansion prices???
I'm not even going to try. While it may not have a sudden impact I do know that one Dysprosium moon has been put into reinforced earlier today. The fireworks that will result when that comes out.... Woooohwweeeee. Love to be fly on the wall for that.
My Latest Auction!! |
VScorpion
Gallente Koshaku Interstellar Starbase Syndicate
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Posted - 2007.12.13 12:30:00 -
[54]
Now that was a very short and hard spike... Ferrogel hit 28k and now it is back to 20k... and I sold my stock right before the spike. stupid me, at least I got a very happy customer now
VScorpion
Please resize image to a maximum of 400 x 120, not exceeding 24000 bytes, ty. If you would like further details please mail [email protected] - Cortes |
Kirjava
Lothian Quay Industries Zzz
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Posted - 2007.12.13 12:34:00 -
[55]
Originally by: VScorpion Now that was a very short and hard spike... Ferrogel hit 28k and now it is back to 20k... and I sold my stock right before the spike. stupid me, at least I got a very happy customer now
Dont feel too bad, I did the same thing. Such a spike cannot be predicted and hence you are not to blame.
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