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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
69
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Posted - 2012.04.06 18:46:00 -
[31] - Quote
Bad Bobby wrote:[quote=Phoenix Pryde]
But, and this is a big but: there is a significant amount of risk in my portfolio. TornSoul is looking for "sure things".
Yup the "sure thing" (99%) is an obvious hurdle.
--
RE all the "buy and hold" comments :
You have to think of this in terms of *having* to make 1% each month.
Ie. you can't "make nothing" for 3-4 months and then make 4% the last month.
It has to be a stable income.
Not easy at the double-digit trillion mark - Hence why I've named it a "challenge" :-)
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Adunh Slavy
Ammatar Trade Syndicate
534
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Posted - 2012.04.06 22:23:00 -
[32] - Quote
Maybe the question is being asked the wrong way.
Perhaps the better question would be, how to increase the wealth 1% when NAV is that high, and not the amount of ISK. For example, looking back over that 2007-2009 price deflation period, if you held your NAV in ISK, you're more wealthy in relative terms. Now, with the mineral move, having your wealth there might be the thing to have done.
By all indications, CCP is attempting to reduce the amount of ISK while decreasing the amount of supply, at least in minerals. Which will move more quickly upwards in value in relative terms, and at a pace that someone with that much NAV can manage.
How quickly you can move that wealth between sectors becomes the question versus how much ISK you have blinking at you. The game is the same as ever, buy low and sell high, you need to see it a year in advance and what you buy and sell may not even be something you can put on the market. |
Gilbaron
Free-Space-Ranger
Ev0ke
181
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Posted - 2012.04.06 22:47:00 -
[33] - Quote
Have you looked at the character market? I'm pretty sure there is a lot of isk to make in the next year if you want to invest a few trillions in mining and industry toons
Also long term investments in PI stuff not used much right now (dust is coming) |
opati
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.04.06 23:15:00 -
[34] - Quote
If I had trillions I would make my own hulkageddon/ice interdiction, buy loads of isotopes in the next 1-2 months, after that period put a bounty on Mackinaws, hulks and orcas killed in certain systems. Make sure that message is heard loud and clearly and pay the bounty for a few days, give out prices for comedy killmails, the guy who kills most barges stuff like that
people will start to speculate on ice like crazy, price will go up a 'few' percent. Cash out
you don't make the profit on the interdiction itself, but more on the people who start speculating as soon as the message goes out
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Jita Bloodtear
Bloodtear Labs
118
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Posted - 2012.04.07 03:51:00 -
[35] - Quote
1% a month isn't that high at all, you'd end up losing isk due to inflation. You'd be better off just buying a hard product like PLEX and sitting on them in that case. If you want to minimize the effort you'd put into massive large scale investments, then the choice is obvious, you need to start a personal banking scheme where you give out 120% collateralized loans and only ask for 1% return a month.
It's fairly obvious that an active player micromanaging their finances can get 1% a month return on small to midrange investment schemes - and if not, they can always rat up enough isk to cover the difference. Thus lending out isk to many players is the best way to scale nearly infinitely.
Since you wouldn't be calling for any investments trust wouldn't be a huge issue by the public. Collateral exchange could be done through contracts for the isk, and the only risk is that you'd cut and run with their 120% collateral. Obviously that's not good for your long term interests, so you'd get many takers. The more popular and stable you are the more loans you'd be giving out. Having a fancy website to track such things would also be neat. |
Svodola Darkfury
Heaven's End
League of Infamy
14
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Posted - 2012.04.08 07:25:00 -
[36] - Quote
I am literally astounded by you genius bastards. You could be completely blowing smoke out your asses but to a laymen pve,pvp person it's like reading the kama sutra and realizing there is more than missionary. |
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
57
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Posted - 2012.04.08 07:40:00 -
[37] - Quote
Svodola Darkfury wrote:I am literally astounded by you genius bastards. You could be completely blowing smoke out your asses but to a laymen pve,pvp person it's like reading the kama sutra and realizing there is more than missionary.
With the lights on and with the lights off?
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Brewlar Kuvakei
Adeptio Gloriae
36
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Posted - 2012.04.08 08:14:00 -
[38] - Quote
Surely just buying PLEX is 100% sure fire way to get positive ROI. Eve one day is going to die and when people stop spending real dollars PLEX will go thru the roof for those die hards still wanting to play game? Also in the end you may be able to cash out your subscriptions into real dollars if CCP ever went into administration here in the UK? |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
69
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Posted - 2012.04.15 20:41:00 -
[39] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:Show me a 99% sure way of making even as little as 1% return on 10's of trillions each month - and I'll accept the challenge. 
A lot of poster are missing the key points in the above - I've bolded and underlined them now.
--
The premise is that one needs to be able to take that 1% (or better) each and every month, and spend it on something (div payouts, interest, fancy ships, exotic dancers).
Thus
"Buy X, sit on it for Y months, then sell"
"Buy all of X, then dump when price soars"
etc
are all schemes that won't work under the above premise.
They are all valid ISK making schemes, not saying they aren't - Just that for this particular "challenge" they are not.
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Akusaa XII
Azeroths Elite
0
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Posted - 2012.04.16 17:12:00 -
[40] - Quote
Wow what an easy challenge. The answer is to abuse inflation of course. Step one, buy materials/ships/modules, step two is to wait for inflation to boost prices for everything, step 3 is to sell at new prices. Of course It's not as easy as I describe it but it does work in theory, and yes buying power will remain the same but the isk number will increase surely. Also, I do know of a way to get way more than 1% but it's a zero sum game, if you get a rush from that kind of stuff like I do then by all means fogure it out  |
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shar'ra matcevsovski
Hedion University
Amarr Empire
26
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Posted - 2012.04.16 19:53:00 -
[41] - Quote
Akusaa XII wrote:Wow what an easy challenge. The answer is to abuse inflation of course. Step one, buy materials/ships/modules, step two is to wait for inflation to boost prices for everything, step 3 is to sell at new prices. Of course It's not as easy as I describe it but it does work in theory, and yes buying power will remain the same but the isk number will increase surely. Also, I do know of a way to get way more than 1% but it's a zero sum game, if you get a rush from that kind of stuff like I do then by all means figure it out
yeaaa genius, he said it a cple times that he doesnt want an simple investment in this challenge, but nice try.
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X ATM092
The Hatchery
Team Liquid
11
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Posted - 2012.04.19 15:32:00 -
[42] - Quote
I can and have been doing over 10%/month on over a trillion for some months now. There's money to be made if you can find it. |
Barakach
R-ISK
Shadow Operations.
51
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Posted - 2012.04.19 16:52:00 -
[43] - Quote
Akusaa XII wrote:Wow what an easy challenge. The answer is to abuse inflation of course. Step one, buy materials/ships/modules, step two is to wait for inflation to boost prices for everything, step 3 is to sell at new prices. Of course It's not as easy as I describe it but it does work in theory, and yes buying power will remain the same but the isk number will increase surely. Also, I do know of a way to get way more than 1% but it's a zero sum game, if you get a rush from that kind of stuff like I do then by all means figure it out
Although, Eve has inflationary and deflationary cycles and bursts. The over-all average is about 1% inflation. If you can buy during the peak of deflation and sell during the peak of inflation, you could stand to make a non-zero amount real valued money. Not sure how much though. And it sounds a bit more boring. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
69
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Posted - 2012.04.19 18:56:00 -
[44] - Quote
Akusaa XII either didn't read or didn't understand my post just before his...
X ATM092 wrote:I can and have been doing over 10%/month on over a trillion for some months now. There's money to be made if you can find it.
A trillion -"hard" but definitely not impossible.
Now scale it up to tens of trillions - 50T is the "ultimate goal" of this challenge.
So far we're topped out at 12.5T
Your 1T/10% could also be considered 10T/1% - Which still isn't "enough" for the challenge.
Also - Just "claiming" you can isn't enough, you have to provide a plausible sounding "framework" (without naming specifics) for what you are doing (as have been done by others).
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Caleb Ayrania
TarNec
14
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Posted - 2012.04.19 19:18:00 -
[45] - Quote
Character trading and character parking business.
As long as EVE is in growth and the economy also, this would always be able to bring in around at least 1% per month imho..
For details on the idea catch me ingame..
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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
69
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Posted - 2012.04.24 19:38:00 -
[46] - Quote
Caleb Ayrania wrote:bring in around at least 1% per month imho..
On 10T+/month???
That would be an awful lot of characters...
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Karn Dulake
Souls Must Be Trampled
The.Alliance
522
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Posted - 2012.04.25 02:26:00 -
[47] - Quote
Bumping for interest
Also really liking this thread and what the OP is saying. I have no idea what the theoretical limit is but at some point 1% will be unsustainable.
Lots of very wise comments and some that are missing the bigger picture
I dont normally troll, but when i do i do it on General Discussion. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1061
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Posted - 2012.04.25 03:28:00 -
[48] - Quote
Totally reckless market domination tactics on related high-throughput items might yield above 1% per month profit on fairly large ISK volumes, and the best part, they ONLY work right when you have huge amounts of ISK available anyway.
Imagine fiddling with all the basic 7 minerals on the Jita market, creating a sudden demand black hole for a particular mineral (but not using more than a small fraction of your total ISK), watching its price rise even after your orders are no longer active, while price of other minerals starts to drop. Buy as much of the devalued ones as gently as possible, while starting to gently sell the overvalued one you have plenty of stocks of. After a while, the market will notice and start reversing the trends, but if you're skilled enough, you already made back more than your initial investment on the manipulated mineral already, while also now possessing decent stocks of undervalued minerals. Now sacrifice a small portion of your leftover manipulated mineral to drive its price into the ground, while starting the upwards manipulation on a different mineral. Lather, rinse and repeat.
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T
http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
69
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Posted - 2012.04.25 17:13:00 -
[49] - Quote
Akita T wrote:
Imagine fiddling with all the basic 7 minerals on the Jita market, creating a sudden demand black hole for a particular mineral (but not using more than a small fraction of your total ISK), watching its price rise even after your orders are no longer active, while price of other minerals starts to drop. Buy as much of the devalued ones as gently as possible, while starting to gently sell the overvalued one you have plenty of stocks of. After a while, the market will notice and start reversing the trends, but if you're skilled enough, you already made back more than your initial investment on the manipulated mineral already, while also now possessing decent stocks of undervalued minerals. Now sacrifice a small portion of your leftover manipulated mineral to drive its price into the ground, while starting the upwards manipulation on a different mineral. Lather, rinse and repeat.
We propoased that several years ago. If interested please invest in BSAMR.
http://sites.google.com/site/evebsac/investor-relations/investing/BSAMRProspectusRev3.pdf
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TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
69
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Posted - 2012.04.25 19:52:00 -
[50] - Quote
@Akita
Care to do a bit of napkin math as to how much ISK that would take to pull of?
And for academics sake - How much ISK would be too much (ie. dropping under the 1% again)
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corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
192
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Posted - 2012.04.25 19:58:00 -
[51] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:Caleb Ayrania wrote:bring in around at least 1% per month imho..
On 10T+/month??? That would be an awful lot of characters...
There are far too many characters that sell for less than they should literally because they're marketed poorly, and beyond that far too many that would fetch a premium for training time, enough to cover buying it, plexing it for a month, and transferring it. A savvy character trader could leverage this, although I don't know that it could be large enough to meet your little thought experiment's requirements on its own.
If someone has the means & motivation to pull this off on their own why would they want to invest in you doing it instead?  |
Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
69
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Posted - 2012.04.25 23:33:00 -
[52] - Quote
corestwo wrote:If someone has the means & motivation to pull this off on their own why would they want to invest in you doing it instead?
If someone can do it for you why not take advantage of it. Also, investing as a group lowers competition for better effect and increases resources.
You may not want to push a mineral down that I have tons in reserve.
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Diomedes Calypso
Aetolian Armada
68
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Posted - 2012.04.25 23:34:00 -
[53] - Quote
1% growth in nominal isk value a month would almost certainly insure that your fortune decreased in relative value.... 12% might come close , but would still fall short.
Even if tritanium didn't budge over 5 years, average ISK earning per hour of PVE almost certainly must rise more quickly than 12% a year to keep players interested in a game.
Thats a META thing regarding game design and game player pschology.
EVEN if you an your friends dodn't feel that way, even if 70% of people didnt' feel that way... the risk of losing 30% of players that they might otherwise retain by not giving a sense of Role play "progress" is too large a potential financial blow for a game company.
I'd guess a figure of 15% (the 3% compound difference wouldn't have a very quick hafl life of value) to 20% (an 8% compounded shortfall would at least be noticeable after a few years) is necessary to make PVE players feel like their ships are new and shiny and that new opportunities at least a bit better than the old opportunities, lie around the corner.
Whether or not if fits the paramaters of your challenge, the notion of retaining purchasing power relative to average hourly earnings of players is why keeping your inventory in PLEX or characters is likely the lowest long term risk of capital that cannot be deployed activiely.
Of all the ideas though, the idea of making very large returns on 100 billion seems the most plausible way to earn enough on average.
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clixor
Celluloid Gurus
7
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Posted - 2012.04.26 00:12:00 -
[54] - Quote
All very valid ideas here, but all require a very handsone approach. Even investing would become a day job.
So why not do let others do that for you? Establish an (investing) bank. Hire talented people and pay them well and they should take the majority of work out of your hands. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1061
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Posted - 2012.04.26 01:09:00 -
[55] - Quote
TornSoul wrote:Care to do a bit of napkin math as to how much ISK that would take to pull of
And for academics sake - How much ISK would be too much (ie. dropping under the 1% again)
Only an EXTREMELY raw back-of-envelope one.
Say around 1 week of total Jita mineral trade for a reasonable minimum, 3 weeks for the sweet spot, 12 weeks for not much additional benefit past that.
weekly raw approx volumes
tri 7*30b*6.2 ~= 1.3 t
pye 7*6b*7.1 ~= 0.3 t
mex 7*2b*56 ~= 0.8 t
iso 7*0.5b*97~= 0.3 t
noc 7*0.15b*1k ~= 0.1 t
zyd 7*0.05b*1.7k ~= 0.6 t
meg 7*0.02b*3.6k ~= 0.5 t
TOTAL ~= 4 trillion ISK
So, about 3-5 tril minimum, best around 10-15 tril, not much point past 45-55 tril.
And I'm not sure whether you can go past 1% monthly average beyond the sweet spot after accounting for the losses you have to eat up in the "forcing" periods and all the inventory that has to stay put for a while, unavoidably.
Plus, it's a bit risky and certainly quite a chunk of work.
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T
http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
69
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Posted - 2012.04.26 17:38:00 -
[56] - Quote
Akita T wrote:
Only an EXTREMELY raw back-of-envelope one.
Which is plenty good enough for this exercise.
Which is simply to get a very rough ball-park figure - To see if it competes with or even completely knocks the socks of anything else suggested.
Akita T wrote:
Say around 1 week of total Jita mineral trade for a reasonable minimum, 3 weeks for the sweet spot, 12 weeks for not much additional benefit past that.
weekly raw approx volumes
tri 7*30b*6.2 ~= 1.3 t
pye 7*6b*7.1 ~= 0.3 t
mex 7*2b*56 ~= 0.8 t
iso 7*0.5b*97~= 0.3 t
noc 7*0.15b*1k ~= 0.1 t
zyd 7*0.05b*1.7k ~= 0.6 t
meg 7*0.02b*3.6k ~= 0.5 t
TOTAL ~= 4 trillion ISK
So, about 3-5 tril minimum, best around 10-15 tril, not much point past 45-55 tril.
Focusing on the "best around" number, this puts it approx on par with the "high scorer" so far.
Although I'd venture that it includes a bit more risk.
Personally I'm a bit surprised it wouldn't take more than that (10T-15T) - So thanks for doing the back-of-envelope map!.
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Rykker Bow
26
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Posted - 2012.06.23 19:55:00 -
[57] - Quote
Being one member of the three man corp comprised by RAW23, Varo Jan and myself, I can confirm the 100% ROI on 100 billion per month plan described by RAW earlier. It's a monster of a business plan and the three of us worked hard into making it a model of manufacturing efficiency. RAW had put a lot of thought into that plan and has a solid foundation. I can also see that this plan can scale down logistically from a three man operation to a one man operation while retaining high returns quite easily.
That being said, I would propose a multiple path approach to this challenge as outlined below involving margin trading and manufacturing that would generate 120+ billion per month on approximately 200 billion capital.
The key in this, as in many posts before, is efficiency. The marriage between manufacturing and margin trading works well together as certain tasks are integral for both and the remaining tasks offers diversification, making the plan less tedious to reach its goal. The plan would optimally use three accounts with 6 characters in the corp, two of the characters can be vanilla and skilled up quickly, one character needing high Jita trading skills and the remaining characters being skilled manufacturers and transporters.
Part 1: Margin trading in three stations with specific items using specific strategies and a system centered on efficiency. It is the strategies employed and the efficiency of the system that makes this possible as profitable items in the market are finite and can be deduced with a some effort by skilled traders. Time involved is 3.5 hours per day with a couple targeted and specific times involved. Investment of 100 billion which will generate 70 billion per month with one member in each of the three stations. This part can scale up to 100 billion per month with 6 hours per day. This system has a proven track record with over 300+ days of use with profits in the 2.2b per day range the last 30 days.
Part 2: Manufacturing. Plan has already been outlined by RAW so I wonGÇÖt go into too much additional detail. With three characters dedicated to a specific tasks, returns will bring 50 billion per month with 100 billion in capital. The three characters of the corp will build and haul goods to market for the traders to sell using 3 hours per day plus an additional 0.5 hours for trader involvement. As the traders are already geared up for sales, this is more of an addendum to their task rather than a separate one. This part can scale up to 100 billion per month with 7 hours per day. This system has a proven track record with over 150+ days both in solo and multiple player use.
The beauty of this plan is in its flexibility in reacting to the fluctuations of the market, especially for patch speculation and targeted sales. On a more day to day or week to week basis, this plan can be flexible according to the desires of the proprietor to ease the burden of repetitiveness. Manufacturing can be scaled down with trading scaled up while maintaining profit margins and vice versa, with approximately 24 hours lead time. This is a small change in repetitiveness to be sure but can mean the difference in maintaining the integrity of the business over the long term. The flexibility can also mean that if you have the time, energy and desire to grind for a day, a week or a month, profits can be astronomical and conversely, the plan can be scaled down to near zero time without losing future profit potential. As the plan stands here it will generate 120 billion per month needing 7 hours per day involvement or up to 200 billion per month needing 13 hours per day (13 hours is indeed a ridiculous amount of time but is included for scale) and on the low time end 2.5 hours per day would yield 60 billion. One positive to the time needed is most of it can be spread out throughout the day negating the need for one long marathon sitting in front of a monitor.
This plan has been fully implemented and is currently running at an average of 4 hours per day (spread out throughout the day). Additional tactics have been implemented that take advantage of market situations, caused both naturally and player driven, that boost profits on the manufacturing side with minimal additional time needed. Although this plan has only been in effect for approximately one week and is only 60% funded at the moment, profits are close to the 3 billion per day mark. Projected profits are conservatively estimated at 3.5 billion per day at 4 hours per day once fully funded and logistics refined.
Regards
- Rykker
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Abditus Cularius
Clancularius Industries
10
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Posted - 2012.06.23 20:15:00 -
[58] - Quote
Titan BPOs are very much a ceiling-ed investment. There are a finite number of folks who need a BPC in a given month, and scaling up how many you make doesn't change that. |
TornSoul
BIG
Gentlemen's Agreement
76
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Posted - 2012.06.25 20:36:00 -
[59] - Quote
@Rykker Bow
Thank you very much for the extra details, and amounts of, specifically with regards to actual time involved vs profit/capital
Exactly the kind of thing I was hoping to see in this thread.
@Abditus Cularius
Agreed, it definitely has a ceiling.
So does anything in EVE.
The question is just if it's high enough or not |
Rykker Bow
28
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Posted - 2012.06.25 22:12:00 -
[60] - Quote
In a few days I'll refine the numbers with the additional data I'll have. I can already see the manufacturing side will require less time than posted by roughly 0.5 - 1 hour depending on how efficient the logistics get. The margin trading is a long standing cornerstone of the business and is pretty much as good as it will get on efficiency.
edit: A stress test on logistics was done this weekend which brought in 14b in 3 days with aboug 5 total hours per day. That is too much time for me to do every day but I was interested to see how the market would react. |
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