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Invention success rate seems to have gone haywire of late.

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Sawhorse	Posted - 2009.04.15 23:18:00 - [1] Hi All, I have been doing invention on caldari products for some time now with what i would call pretty fair results.eg 10 x Golem blueprints all with tuning instructions = 4/5 come out the rest dont, The ones that do come out as succesfull are obviously ALL at 20% wastage. That makes me a pretty tidy sum on the final build of a golem as i build ALL the parts myself and have all the BPO,s very well researched. I have all skills MAXED out for caldari but the last couple of weeks i seem to have had some really bad results.With or without decryptors i am down to an average of 1/2 succesfull out of 10 installs. Has anyone else had the same problem of late or is it just me...? Or could this just be yet another bug alongside the many others i seem to have suffered from the latest patch. If a bad run / spell is to be expected then fair enough but i was under the impression that this invention millarky was a pretty even game. If someone could throw a little light on this it would at least put my mind at rest. Thanx and best regards all :) Sawhorse
Ancallan Petals of Derketo	Posted - 2009.04.16 00:31:00 - [2] Well, the base invention rate for large ships is 20%. I'd say you're doing pretty good.
Yelan Zhou Amarr PIE Inc.	Posted - 2009.04.16 01:14:00 - [3] You have 50 % and complain ? Want to invent some ships for me ?
Caelum Mortuos Gallente Zero G Research and Development	Posted - 2009.04.16 01:25:00 - [4] Dude you're doing it wrong! The "omg CCP stealth nerfed invention" thread should be posted after the patch! Also, as others have said, don't complain about 50% success rate on golems, thats insanely good, no doubt you'll be back here in a couple weeks to talk about how you're only getting 5% when it balances out a bit :P
Lone Gunman Forhotea Corporation	Posted - 2009.04.16 05:30:00 - [5] I believe he is saying he is getting 10% to 20% success rate not "1/2". I do 33 Tech 2 cruiser every 25 hours no Decryptors, in the last month I have several at 6 and several at 15. The last one was 12 but the last 6 did not succeed until the very end, so if I had done only 20 invention tries only 6 would have been successfull. So invention is working as intended....unfortunetly.
Abigail101	Posted - 2009.04.16 11:32:00 - [6] My long term success rate on marauders seems to be around 20% using the collision / calbration / tuning decryptors as appropriate (maxed relevant skills except CSE @ 4 which seems to make no noticeable difference). The typical pattern for me is 1 / 8 pretty much consistently, with the odd 2 or 3 / 8 and them BAM! once in a blue moon 6/8 ... at which point I bemoan that I did not spend more time building companents during the quiet periods I have seen no change of note in the past couple of months.
Lord Fitz Project Amargosa	Posted - 2009.04.16 13:45:00 - [7] Quote: Or could this just be yet another bug alongside the many others i seem to have suffered from the latest patch. If a bad run / spell is to be expected then fair enough but i was under the impression that this invention millarky was a pretty even game. Invention the chances are known, the results are not. The whines every single week that 'something is up with invention' ought let you know that people can't understand random chance. If you toss a coin, you could get heads 20 times in a row, and that doesn't mean there's something wrong with the coin. It happens. Only in invention, the base chance is much less than 50/50.
Victor Valka Caldari Kissaki Corporation	Posted - 2009.04.16 14:00:00 - [8] Not this ** again! /facepalm Originally by:** Spaztick You are not outnumbered, you are in a target-rich environment.
ShardowRhino Caldari Legion 0f The Damned	Posted - 2009.04.16 14:25:00 - [9] Originally by: Victor Valka Not this **** again! /facepalm I to /facepalm. Yet not for the same reasons you are /facepalm ing for. I ran the numbers on marauders the other week and read the first part of the OP and had to facepalm at the likelihood hes losing isk as my numbers show all hisec marauder producers are doing. These things should be the cashcow of invention,instead its a joke.
Lord Fitz Project Amargosa	Posted - 2009.04.16 14:36:00 - [10] Items without T2 BPOs are actually among the worst, because people assume they must be profitable and just undercut the lowest price without checking.

Sawhorse	Posted - 2009.04.16 15:48:00 - [11] Well thanx for your input guys, Oh and by the way if you read the whole post i certainly wasnt moaning i was just curious as to why it had happened. Meanwhile once again thanx guys Saw :)
Sawhorse	Posted - 2009.04.16 15:56:00 - [12] Originally by: Lord Fitz Quote: Or could this just be yet another bug alongside the many others i seem to have suffered from the latest patch. If a bad run / spell is to be expected then fair enough but i was under the impression that this invention millarky was a pretty even game. Invention the chances are known, the results are not. The whines every single week that 'something is up with invention' ought let you know that people can't understand random chance. If you toss a coin, you could get heads 20 times in a row, and that doesn't mean there's something wrong with the coin. It happens. Only in invention, the base chance is much less than 50/50. Thats all well and good and now i understand that but maybe if someone put that in F***G PLAIN ENGLISH somewhere easy to find you wouldnt have to read " This ***" every week.
Altcorp CEO	Posted - 2009.04.17 11:18:00 - [13] Edited by: Altcorp CEO on 17/04/2009 11:19:05 Sawhorse, I am having a similar problem. I currently oversee Invention with 3 characters. All three of them have identical maxxed out invention skills in the races I use them for My Gallente/Amarr inventor is getting roughly 30% on cruisers and 40% on frigates, not using T1 ships or decryptors. My Minmatar inventor is getting slightly better numbers. My Caldari inventor has had three, i'll say that again.... THREE (3). Of his last THIRTY (30) Caldari jobs succeed, on JUST FRIGATES. Im not even going to try cruisers. Three months ago, two months ago, and last month that same inventor was pulling %30 on Cruisers and %50 on frigs using the exact same methods, and I do alot of invention so don't tell me thats something isn't wrong. When Caldari T2 ships skyrocket in price, I'll be here to remind you all that we said something was wrong.
Arachna	Posted - 2009.04.17 11:48:00 - [14] Yes invention has been nerfed peeps, now all go moon/ore mine 24/7 so I can buy it sheep.
Chitah Gallente Estamine Tuga de Altos Estudos	Posted - 2009.04.17 11:51:00 - [15] Regarding this: 20% success in cruiser invention. I run around 20jobs/week and i record all my successes/fail. I guess i'm doing something wrong. @OP - you shouldn't be complaining tbh that T2 BS success rate is higher than my cruiser invention... go figure Cheers, Chitah
Lord Fitz Project Amargosa	Posted - 2009.04.17 12:39:00 - [16] Edited by: Lord Fitz on 17/04/2009 12:42:19 Originally by: Altcorp CEO My Caldari inventor has had three, i'll say that again.... THREE (3). Of his last THIRTY (30) Caldari jobs succeed, on JUST FRIGATES. Im not even going to try cruisers. Three months ago, two months ago, and last month that same inventor was pulling %30 on Cruisers and %50 on frigs using the exact same methods, and I do alot of invention so don't tell me thats something isn't wrong. When Caldari T2 ships skyrocket in price, I'll be here to remind you all that we said something was wrong. Twelve months ago, My Caldari Inventor had ZERO, I'll say that again.... ZERO of 30 jobs succeed. Now he's pulling closer to 35%. And I do a lot of invention, so don't tell me that something is wrong. When Caldari T2 ships crash in price, I'll be here to remind you that if you think this is weird, you should spend some educational time at the casino, wondering how you luck can turn you from rich to broke when the chances don't change. Invention chances are the same as they have been for years (since the bases were changed for ships), unless you have done THOUSANDS of runs, and recorded every one of the them accurately, don't stick your head up and think you know otherwise, because it's simple statistics, your sample size no matter how big you think it is, is simply too small. Every time CCP have changed invention, they told us. The data is right there in the database dump that is publicly available. Every day thousands of people have their average success drop, and thousands have it rise, people just keep quiet when they rise because hey, nothing is 'wrong'. Chances for invention are here: http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/invention_chance.php Note that 30% doesn't mean 3 out of every 10, it means 3 out of 10 on average, across thousands of runs.


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