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Dalden V
Blue Lounge Industries
1
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Posted - 2012.05.06 19:05:00 -
[1] - Quote
How do you put a price on a T2 BPO these days?
In the past you could work out how much profit you'd make from them and base it on that, but I think many T2 BPO's are simply collector items now, hardly creating any profit.
I'm asking out of interest, and also because I want to put an accurate number on my NAV. |
Johnny Frecko
Fruidian Logic
21
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Posted - 2012.05.06 19:14:00 -
[2] - Quote
in theory the easiest way to calculate a value of an item is using the very simple formula of
Value = (income)/(personal intrest rate)
So for example, if you can expect a net income of 100M a month, and your personal intrest rate(meaning the % your isk would make else where, if not invested in the BPO), let's assume it's 4%. you'll get a value of
*drum rolls*
2.5B.
That ignores completely expectations to game changes though. Rarity might increase the value a bit more, but that depends on the buyer mostly. for a person who sees the BPO as strictly an isk making investments rarity means little.
on more realistic notes, if you can make 1B a month selling T2 items from a certain BPO, that price would rise in our little example to 25B, a price you could give a small cheapish T2 bpo.
The above formula is used in real life price-tagging of hard-to-calculate items.
in real life, maybe in here too, there's room to add inflation expecations, which should be in eve at around 1.5-3%, those are added in the formula to the intrest rate.
so you'll get a (income) / (Intrest + inflation).
This is assuming everything is constant, which it isn't, but it's a start. |
Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
1093
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Posted - 2012.05.06 19:49:00 -
[3] - Quote
The easiest way to price a T2 BPO is to put it up for auction and sell it.
They generally go for anywhere between 3 to 12 years' worth of profits, with most of them 5-6 years' worth of profits.
I don't know about you, but even 4 years of profit sounds like an abysmally low RoI.
I charge that much interest for very generous long-term non-collateralized loans to people I know in RL (i.e. very low risk loans).
I'd charge at least double (if not higher) for a fully collateralized loan to somebody I don't have good RL connections with.
Basically, as the OP put it, their collector value seems to be higher than their actual economic value already.
And again, the best way to figure out their value is to just sell them. Via auctions.
http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/User:Akita_T
http://eve-search.com/stats/Akita_T |
Lithalnas
Privateers
Privateer Alliance
115
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Posted - 2012.05.06 21:09:00 -
[4] - Quote
the before mentioned perpetuity
Value = (income)/(personal intrest rate)
is somewhat of an indicator of value, however most people do not keep a bpo forever. So you can add a future value, say its original cost to the perpetuity value to get its present value. also you need to modify the equation to be more inline with an annuity.
Privateer Alliance, rebuilding a not so safe High Sec.-á
Want to assist in this endevor? (contract wars, corp/pilot recrutment) Contact one of our directors. |
Darth Tickles
Dark Sun Consortium
306
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Posted - 2012.05.06 21:31:00 -
[5] - Quote
Think of a reasonable price, multiply that by 5. |
Johnny Frecko
Fruidian Logic
21
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Posted - 2012.05.06 23:55:00 -
[6] - Quote
So to correctly price a BPO i would calculate something like
NPV = income/intrest
-(BUY COST) + NPV + (Sell price) / (1+r)^n.
solve this, and it gives you the net present value of the BPO.
with n being the amount of months you would keep the BPO.
and the intrest rate is a monthly one.
That should give you a "correct" indication at what the price *should be*.
Ofcourse the crude method of just starting an auction and seeing how much it goes for also works.
Also to answer your original question - T2 bpos still have profits in them, they're not just collectibles.
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Boomhaur
40
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Posted - 2012.05.07 00:52:00 -
[7] - Quote
Akita T wrote:The easiest way to price a T2 BPO is to put it up for auction and sell it.
They generally go for anywhere between 3 to 12 years' worth of profits, with most of them 5-6 years' worth of profits.
I don't know about you, but even 4 years of profit sounds like an abysmally low RoI.
I charge that much interest for very generous long-term non-collateralized loans to people I know in RL (i.e. very low risk loans).
I'd charge at least double (if not higher) for a fully collateralized loan to somebody I don't have good RL connections with.
Basically, as the OP put it, their collector value seems to be higher than their actual economic value already.
And again, the best way to figure out their value is to just sell them. Via auctions.
Everything is worth only what the consumer is willing to pay. This goes especially for T2 BPO's. |
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.05.07 02:16:00 -
[8] - Quote
T2 BPO's only have value if the price people are willing to pay keep going up.
Invention has taken away a lot of the astronomical profits from the T2 BPO market.
Back in the day there was originally 8 T2 BPO's for each item. Over the last many years certain events have reduced that number without any impact on price. This fact shows that in most cases T2 BPO holders do not set the prices invention people do.
When the EBANK scam blew wide open several T2 mining crystals went with the accounts, but no effect on price was seen.
When Cosmoray left last year, 2 Nighthawk BPO's and several other alliance BPO's left the game due to bans. No effect on price.
T2 BPO is like real estate or gold/oil. One hopes the price keeps going up and nerfs don't trash the value. |
corestwo
Goonfleet Investment Banking
292
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Posted - 2012.05.07 03:15:00 -
[9] - Quote
T2 BPOs are Eve's longest running bubble. |
Boomhaur
41
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Posted - 2012.05.07 05:46:00 -
[10] - Quote
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:T2 BPO's only have value if the price people are willing to pay keep going up.
Invention has taken away a lot of the astronomical profits from the T2 BPO market.
Back in the day there was originally 8 T2 BPO's for each item. Over the last many years certain events have reduced that number without any impact on price. This fact shows that in most cases T2 BPO holders do not set the prices invention people do.
When the EBANK scam blew wide open several T2 mining crystals went with the accounts, but no effect on price was seen.
When Cosmoray left last year, 2 Nighthawk BPO's and several other alliance BPO's left the game due to bans. No effect on price.
T2 BPO is like real estate or gold/oil. One hopes the price keeps going up and nerfs don't trash the value.
Yeah I got my first nighthawk for around 200mil back in 07 and right now it's going for around the same price. It is actually the most stable thing I have seen in terms of price so far in eve off hand. Everything else skyrocketed, 90 GTC was around 300 or 370mil back than on the forums, now it's 500mil for a 30day plex. And according to you we are 2 Nighthawk BPO short now and I haven't seen the price even be impacted from that from what I recall.
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Dalden V
Blue Lounge Industries
1
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Posted - 2012.05.07 06:59:00 -
[11] - Quote
Thanks for the replies everyone. So it's not that easy to just put a value on them (other than try to sell them and see what others are willing to pay for them).
I think I'm going to put them up for auction with a reserve set to the price I paid for them two years ago. If nobody wants to pay more for them than what I paid, I'll just hang on to them and call them my collector's items :) |
PompousDour
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
0
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Posted - 2012.07.11 05:02:00 -
[12] - Quote
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:When Cosmoray left last year, 2 Nighthawk BPO's and several other alliance BPO's left the game due to bans.
was cosmoray banned? |
Cheeba Don
Macabre Votum
Against ALL Authorities
5
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Posted - 2012.07.11 07:18:00 -
[13] - Quote
corestwo wrote:T2 BPOs are Eve's longest running bubble.
No more a bubble than art, wine or stamps.
T2 bpos do have BIG value in collectability - people will pay alot for a bpo that earns nothing. People need to stop thinking that these are being traded for making isk. Sure some do turn great profits, but they go for 100b+ |
Gatan Hahran
Brukterer
DUCT TAPE UNION
123
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Posted - 2012.07.11 08:01:00 -
[14] - Quote
After a few negotiations with T2 BPO sellers i came to the conclusion that a T2 BPO is always worth double the price the current holder paid for it, even if it was 1 hour ago.
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Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
84
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Posted - 2012.07.11 10:44:00 -
[15] - Quote
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:Back in the day there was originally 8 T2 BPO's for each item.
Source?
I believed the initial issue was a slightly larger number than that and subsequent issues multiplied the number available. It's so long ago though that my memory is unreliable. I've yet to come across a trustworthy source of information on the numbers of T2 BPOs issued for each item.
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:Over the last many years certain events have reduced that number without any impact on price. This fact shows that in most cases T2 BPO holders do not set the prices invention people do.
When the EBANK scam blew wide open several T2 mining crystals went with the accounts, but no effect on price was seen.
When Cosmoray left last year, 2 Nighthawk BPO's and several other alliance BPO's left the game due to bans. No effect on price.
My understanding was that there were quite a few T2 mining crystal BPOs and therefore the loss of a handful wouldn't make a significant impact.
The demand for Nighthawks is so low, particularly since the addition of the Drake, that I don't think the loss of 2 BPOs would really be felt (if indeed they were lost).
While I broadly agree with your claim (that T2 BPO holders do not set the prices) and I do believe there is plenty of evidence to support that claim, I do not believe that your supporting evidence is sound.
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:T2 BPO is like real estate or gold/oil. One hopes the price keeps going up and nerfs don't trash the value.
Absolutely.
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Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
84
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Posted - 2012.07.11 11:03:00 -
[16] - Quote
corestwo wrote:T2 BPOs are Eve's longest running bubble.
And long may she reign.
Cheeba Don wrote:No more a bubble than art, wine or stamps.
T2 bpos do have BIG value in collectability - people will pay alot for a bpo that earns nothing. People need to stop thinking that these are being traded for making isk. Sure some do turn great profits, but they go for 100b+
I fully agree that T2 BPOs are similar to RL art.
Some buy them to add to a collection, some to act as a status symbol, some buy them for the price they have to pay without regard to any return they may or may not get from that purchase.
However I am not one of those people. I buy T2 BPOs for profit, pure and simple. I prefer BPOs that generate a manufacturing profit, even if it is small, because I like to get at least some trickle of income from them for the duration of my ownership. However my primary concern is the increase in the market value of the BPO itself over the the period of my ownership. For this reason I purchase BPOs of low demand items that are clearly unbalanced and in desperate need of a buff and hold them until CCP comes through. As a result I see the value of the BPO increase due to mundane inflation and then compound with a post buff boost in demand. So far I have found this approach to be effective in doubling the value of my T2 BPO fund every 8 months. I don't think that ROI is awe inspiring, but I do believe it to be a worthwhile, enjoyable and low-effort part of my portfolio. |
forestwho
Foonfleet Investment Banking
28
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Posted - 2012.07.11 12:03:00 -
[17] - Quote
8 big ships
12 on frigats
16 on mods
20 or 24 on ammo?
something like this was it i think... |
Ile Disco
ZimmaGoo Holdings
0
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Posted - 2012.07.11 13:01:00 -
[18] - Quote
Bad Bobby wrote: However my primary concern is the increase in the market value of the BPO itself over the the period of my ownership. For this reason I purchase BPOs of low demand items that are clearly unbalanced and in desperate need of a buff and hold them until CCP comes through. As a result I see the value of the BPO increase due to mundane inflation and then compound with a post buff boost in demand. So far I have found this approach to be effective in doubling the value of my T2 BPO fund every 8 months. I don't think that ROI is awe inspiring, but I do believe it to be a worthwhile, enjoyable and low-effort part of my portfolio.
So, for example if you won a crap looking one over the weekend, keep it locked up till CCP buff it and then retire? |
Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine
84
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Posted - 2012.07.11 13:30:00 -
[19] - Quote
forestwho wrote:8 big ships
12 on frigats
16 on mods
20 or 24 on ammo?
something like this was it i think... I think there are more. I have no more reliable information that you on this (guesswork alone) but I can say with absolute certainty due to the nature of my own collection that there are AT LEAST 20 of some (if not all) T2 ammo types.
Ile Disco wrote:So, for example if you won a crap looking one over the weekend, keep it locked up till CCP buff it and then retire?
Difficult to give a concrete answer on that without knowing the exact BPO you are talking about and your personal financial situation. In general, however, my answer would be yes: hang on to it.
Feel free to eve-mail me with more details if you want. If I offer you isk for it then you should assume that means you shouldn't sell it. |
BhurakStarkiller
GPDSK
INDP
10
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Posted - 2012.07.15 02:12:00 -
[20] - Quote
forestwho wrote:8 big ships
12 on frigats
16 on mods
20 or 24 on ammo?
something like this was it i think...
I think this is about right, but multiply all numbers by 2.
Im pretty sure 48 of each drone BP was offered in the lottery.
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Nerdy McButtHurt Trald
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
8
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Posted - 2012.07.15 21:18:00 -
[21] - Quote
When T2 ship BPO's were released there was only 8 of each type.
So all those profit making HACS, recons, command ships, Exhumers only 8 released of each.
Most of the owners would form cartels for sale points, and agreed prices.
If anyone who remembers Hulk prices at 500M ISK each, the prooducers could make 10 a week at 430-450M profit on each.
Invention comes directly from the absurd value of owning a good T2 BPO.
And answering a previous question, Cosmoray lost about 4 accounts (effected an alliance) worth over 400B, with 2 Nighthawk BPO's. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1652
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Posted - 2012.07.16 00:07:00 -
[22] - Quote
Nerdy McButtHurt Trald wrote:
And answering a previous question, Cosmoray lost about 4 accounts (effected an alliance) worth over 400B, with 2 Nighthawk BPO's.
His "fake scam" days...
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