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gammatude
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Posted - 2009.05.24 20:35:00 -
[1]
Edited by: gammatude on 24/05/2009 20:44:26 Zydrine at Jita 4-4 is very interesting right now.
As of this writing there are 10 billion units on sale between 1,522.42 and 1,523.22
In contrast there are only about 6 billion units on Buy orders from 1,510 to 1,519.81
As I understand it, this means that with the broker's fees added in, the highest buy orders are currently paying more for Zydrine than they would via direct purchase.
Below the 1,510 buy order plateau, the next price is 1,463
Of additional concern to Zydrine holders is that above the 1,523.22 mark there are another 20 billion units of zydrine priced from 1,545 to 1,599. This amount alone would be more than enough to fill every current active buy order at Jita 4-4 with several billions left over.
Basically Zydrine is sinking faster than the Titanic and it looks like it could go much much lower. On first glance this could... 1: Change profit calculations of W-space mining corps. 2: Make existing zydrine-heavy ships over priced vs. new builds. 3: Create significant paper losses for anybody holding stockpiles of Zydrine. 4: Other
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Companion Qube
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Posted - 2009.05.24 20:39:00 -
[2]
Wait till Wednesday and then post again.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.24 22:37:00 -
[3]
AS mega goes up, something else must hammer it down.
Normally we'd see a nice spread between the remaining high ends and low ends. But we also have to take into account a bulk over supply of pye and iso, and massive unrelenting demand of trit.
In short, zydrine drew the short end of the stick. |
arjun
Viziam
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Posted - 2009.05.24 22:46:00 -
[4]
Edited by: arjun on 24/05/2009 22:48:42 the zydrine prices are the result of interwoven factors: 1: influx of large amounts of plush compound during the last week (still going on) 2: pricewar of 3 players to buy those amounts driving up the price of plush compound 3: large amounts of plush compound in the hands of those players mean large amounts of zydrine on the jita market that need to be sold 4: pricewar of mentioned 3 players to sell the zydrine 5: falling price of plush compound
trit and pyer have fallen from 3.94 to 3.9 and 4,25 to 4,2 parallel but not in the same degree with zydrine
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2009.05.24 22:49:00 -
[5]
I recommend both buying and selling. I want mineral options so the market can be up and down at the same time.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven this thread is obviously going places
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.24 23:43:00 -
[6]
Read Qube's reply again to understand why demand for the entire Jita mineral basket is weak this weekend and why drawing any conclusion from very recent market "trends" may not be healthy for your wallet.
Hint: BECAUSE OF FALCON.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
gammatude
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Posted - 2009.05.25 00:21:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Clair Bear Read Qube's reply again to understand why demand for the entire Jita mineral basket is weak this weekend and why drawing any conclusion from very recent market "trends" may not be healthy for your wallet.
Hint: BECAUSE OF FALCON.
I was under the impression that the recent patch notes had declared a moratorium on "because of falcon" references. Be that as it may, I took Qube's reply regarding Wednesday to imply that the recent reduction in 0.0 and low sec combat ops due to the jump bug, should be eliminated with the upcoming patch on Tuesday.
Essentially, resumption of ops leads to resumption of losses leads to more Zydrine sales.
The record will show however that as of 23:37 on 5/24 that Zydrine did indeed drop to 1,463 at Jita.
I certainly didn't mean to imply with my OP that the Zydrine market was in danger of permanent collapse. Only that a collapse of some sort appeared imminent.
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Companion Qube
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Posted - 2009.05.25 00:59:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Clair Bear Read Qube's reply again to understand why demand for the entire Jita mineral basket is weak this weekend and why drawing any conclusion from very recent market "trends" may not be healthy for your wallet.
Hint: BECAUSE OF FALCON.
Here, I fixed that for you.
On a more topical note, why the hell would anybody be holding zydrine before now? That's tantamount to financial suicide.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.25 02:23:00 -
[9]
Originally by: gammatude
I was under the impression that the recent patch notes had declared a moratorium on "because of falcon" references.
Ironic, that. The 1.2 patch is definitely a gift that keeps on giving. And most of the egregious and game-wrecking bugs were cased by hamfisted, clueless attempts to swat a gnat with a steam shovel.
Quote:
Essentially, resumption of ops leads to resumption of losses leads to more Zydrine sales.
Close, but not quite. The demand is only part of the equation. If the demand vanishes completely we can still self destruct battleships for insurance.
While it's true that inability to have a support fleet will definitely put a dent in the cap ship losses over the long weekend the bigger problem is manufacturers not being able to get their goods to market and purchase raw materials on the way back. Flying a freighter with the gate bug was annoying enough for a 6 gate at-keyboard trip (2 crashes). I can't imagine multi region hauling at the moment.
After the patch I expect finished goods to tank hard and raw materials to shoot back up. Somewhat the reverse of what we've been seeing since the last patch broke gate travel.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
jullll
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Posted - 2009.05.27 09:51:00 -
[10]
zydrine will go up one day you guys think?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.05.27 10:09:00 -
[11]
Originally by: jullll zydrine will go up one day you guys think?
If CCP doesn't make any sweeping changes to missions/mining/manufacture, then Zydrine can only realistically go back up if Megacyte starts going down.
EVE issues|Mining revamp|Build stuff|Make ISK |
Jagga Spikes
Minmatar Sebiestor tribe
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Posted - 2009.05.27 10:39:00 -
[12]
that is, unless everyone, and their families, keeps buying zydrine in hopes it will rise in price :)
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Lost Hamster
Hamster Holding Corp
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Posted - 2009.05.27 12:15:00 -
[13]
Originally by: jullll zydrine will go up one day you guys think?
If CCP is not changing the wormhole mining then I believe the price will fall. Currently there is a massive Zydrin supply coming from the WH space. If that is not stopped then the I don't see any reason why should the price increase.
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.27 12:19:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: jullll zydrine will go up one day you guys think?
If CCP doesn't make any sweeping changes to missions/mining/manufacture, then Zydrine can only realistically go back up if Megacyte starts going down.
Agreed. Massive spikes in iso/noc/pye respectively. All three would have to see huge gains before they would effect the high end basket to any real degree.
But I think I gotta better chance at drinking some of the devs under the table than that. |
Kalrand
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Posted - 2009.05.27 14:30:00 -
[15]
Originally by: gammatude
to imply that the recent reduction in 0.0 and low sec combat ops due to the jump bug
What 0.0 combat ops are you talking about? Last I checked, 0.0 combat wasn't affected by the jump bug anywhere near as much as empire-AFK-autopiloting was.
No one AFKs autopilots in 0.0 or lowsec more than once.
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Leocadminone
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Posted - 2009.05.27 15:16:00 -
[16]
I suspect part of it is supply/demand changes due to a lotta folks getting out of school for the summer. High School and College age folks are pretty common in ANY MMORG, and that has a noticeable effect on player counts. Also, those folks tend to have a TON of time available when they're not in school, so their effect is disproportionately HIGH compared to their actual numbers.
This is also the case for many of those (like me) that work in Education or Education-related activities, we also tend to have a lot more available time once schools let out which just adds to this effect.
I'm CERTAIN this is also the primary cause of the recent PLEX spike - lotsa folks creating new alt accounts or getting friends in the game now that they have the TIME to play.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.05.27 15:32:00 -
[17]
Quote:
What 0.0 combat ops are you talking about? Last I checked, 0.0 combat wasn't affected by the jump bug anywhere near as much as empire-AFK-autopiloting was.
There was like a 7-8% probability of bug per jump, an roaming PvP gang like my corp routinely does would usually "lose" 1 player (ie all stop and wait for him to relog) every max 2 jumps, and this makes successful agile roaming / tactically timed PvP impossible.
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Kalrand
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Posted - 2009.05.27 16:01:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Quote:
What 0.0 combat ops are you talking about? Last I checked, 0.0 combat wasn't affected by the jump bug anywhere near as much as empire-AFK-autopiloting was.
There was like a 7-8% probability of bug per jump, an roaming PvP gang like my corp routinely does would usually "lose" 1 player (ie all stop and wait for him to relog) every max 2 jumps, and this makes successful agile roaming / tactically timed PvP impossible.
While I agree about roving gangs, gangs like that don't have the same impact on commerce that a nice big fleet fight would. Those didn't stop.
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Clair Bear
Perkone
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Posted - 2009.05.27 16:04:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Clair Bear on 27/05/2009 16:06:41
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
Quote:
What 0.0 combat ops are you talking about? Last I checked, 0.0 combat wasn't affected by the jump bug anywhere near as much as empire-AFK-autopiloting was.
There was like a 7-8% probability of bug per jump, an roaming PvP gang like my corp routinely does would usually "lose" 1 player (ie all stop and wait for him to relog) every max 2 jumps, and this makes successful agile roaming / tactically timed PvP impossible.
Exactly this. Not every alliance can titan bridge their support. In addition to roams being canceled, trying to move 50+ support for a small scale POS bash became impossible via gates. You'd lose 2-3 people per jump. The choices became abandoning the stragglers or hanging out for several annoying minutes in each system (causing a gigantic, slow moving "pilots in space in the last 30 minutes" moving blip on the map).
Kenny, goons and friends could still play POS pinata but everyone else just ship spun for a week.
What does this have to do with the OP? Well, with freighters moving again the lowends (what freighters move) are rising as predicted. Manufacturers ate their stockpiles last week and are now paying sell order prices to get them. This puts additional pressure on the high ends. Add to that people having speculatively stocked up on Zydrine at these "lows" and I wouldn't be too surprised to see the slide continue to 1200/pu.
And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question? |
Kalrand
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Posted - 2009.05.27 17:50:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Clair Bear
Kenny, goons and friends could still play POS pinata but everyone else just ship spun for a week.
I would venture that any alliance large enough to hold enough space so that their miners could use mining barges and exhumers safely (space far enough from the front that roving gangs are unlikely) are the same alliances that can titan bridge stuff from one end of the universe on top of your POS.
And those are the miners that are going to be putting millions of surplus zyn on the market.
But who knows. Lets see what the next few weeks will hold.
My prediction? Zyn spikes for a few weeks then slowly drifts down to below its current levels.
Supply hasn't been the same since the Delve campaign became the Period Basis campaign, became the Querious campaign.
None of the former BoB pets have access to relatively safe, low-sec, mining space. This is some of the best space in the universe, and I expect that until the delve war is won that Zyn is only going to get more and more expensive.
And Goons are too busy blowing up things to really take full advantage of all the new territory.
That being said, once empire mining corps start really taking advantage of w-space, I think the supply of zyn will explode. Its going to be too lucrative not to venture out into wormholes, and once people see how to safely mine in w-space, I don't think they'll go back to Veldspar in high-sec.
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RJ Nobel
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Posted - 2009.05.27 18:02:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Leocadminone
I'm CERTAIN this is also the primary cause of the recent PLEX spike - lotsa folks creating new alt accounts or getting friends in the game now that they have the TIME to play.
Fanfest tickets can be bought with PLEX's...
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Faye LaFrege
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Posted - 2009.05.28 11:25:00 -
[22]
I dont see why zydrine will keep slipping. What I donĘt understand is that why should megacyte prices rise while zydrine falls? Surely the sources for both are the same (0.0 ores and mission loot) and mined in equal quantity? Maybe Im missing something obvious tho...
And I also thought the drones regions were the biggest 0.0 supplier of zydrine (and mega), not necessarily Delve etc.
Hrmm, while I can forsee prices slipping further, at some point some factor will spike/hit a certain mineral and the mineral prices will bounce around again, bumping zydrine back up to a more respectable 2000isk pu.
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jullll
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Posted - 2009.05.28 11:47:00 -
[23]
Arkonor mining: 20% Zydrine 40% Megacyte 40% tritanium Bistot mining: 50% zydrine 25% Megacyte 25% Pyerite Crokite mining: 50% Zydrine 25% Nocxium 25% Tritanium
Arko is very rare and in regions with a lot of fights atm making megacyte hard to find and price goes up. Bistot/crokite is "more common" and easier to mine, even more on regions/systems without any ship lost in 24hours.
I guess some wars on main crokite/bistot regions should make zydrine price go up.
Market manipulation? idk. But for a regular miner that base his incomes on Crokite mining it's a real pain in the ass to see zydrine fall that fast.
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Faye LaFrege
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Posted - 2009.05.28 12:00:00 -
[24]
Originally by: jullll
Market manipulation? idk. But for a regular miner that base his incomes on Crokite mining it's a real pain in the ass to see zydrine fall that fast.
Aye, while I know crok is still better isk/hour to mine than empire ores, yet again the shift seems to be making empire more profitable without risk, while 0.0 suffers a decline in its worth. Not a huge shift I know, but it also affects the mid range ores in lowsec which no ones mines!
Ah well, zydrine has always been fun to speculate and invest in, long may it peak and trough!
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.05.28 12:14:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Faye LaFrege I dont see why zydrine will keep slipping. What I donĘt understand is that why should megacyte prices rise while zydrine falls? Surely the sources for both are the same (0.0 ores and mission loot) and mined in equal quantity? Maybe Im missing something obvious tho...
And I also thought the drones regions were the biggest 0.0 supplier of zydrine (and mega), not necessarily Delve etc.
Hrmm, while I can forsee prices slipping further, at some point some factor will spike/hit a certain mineral and the mineral prices will bounce around again, bumping zydrine back up to a more respectable 2000isk pu.
I'm to lazy to find it at this point.. hell I think its in the sticky somewhere. But Akita did a nice job of hashing it out for the layman...what... 3 years ago now I think.
More or less it had to do with insurance, that everything can be refined to its base mats, and loot drops. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.05.28 12:37:00 -
[26]
Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 28/05/2009 12:38:55 Edited by: Vaerah Vahrokha on 28/05/2009 12:38:19
Quote:
While I agree about roving gangs, gangs like that don't have the same impact on commerce that a nice big fleet fight would. Those didn't stop.
Duh. The number and type of ships gets only worse if you talk of a big fleet.
If in a 0.0 / low sec roam gang you end up having to stop and wait every other gate, in a doubly bigger fleet you must stop and wait at *every* gate.
Moreover, there's an exponentially higher risk at keeping a BS / dreads fleet stuck and waiting (ISK value and lowest agility), compared to having some roaming gang BCs that can still disengage in a decent way.
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Block Ukx
Forge Laboratories
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Posted - 2009.05.28 13:12:00 -
[27]
Originally by: gammatude As of this writing there are 10 billion units on sale between 1,522.42 and 1,523.22
Did you meant 10 Million units? Considering average Jita daily trade is around 40-50 M units, 10 billion units would definetly collapse the market.
Originally by: gammatude Of additional concern to Zydrine holders is that above the 1,523.22 mark there are another 20 billion units of zydrine priced from 1,545 to 1,599. This amount alone would be more than enough to fill every current active buy order at Jita 4-4 with several billions left over.
Again, I'm going to assume Million units, not Billions. 20 M units is just half Jita daily trade, so I wouldn't be too concern about it.
Originally by: gammatude
Basically Zydrine is sinking faster than the Titanic and it looks like it could go much much lower.
It is not unussual for the mineral market to experience large price volatility.
Originally by: gammatude
On first glance this could... 1: Change profit calculations of W-space mining corps. 2: Make existing zydrine-heavy ships over priced vs. new builds. 3: Create significant paper losses for anybody holding stockpiles of Zydrine. 4: Other
1: Maybe, however most ore incomes are on the rise. 2: Not if you use a cost average approach. 3: Yes, in the short term. 4: This makes it an excellent time to buy/invest in Zydrine.
For detrails visit our website.
BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk |
Kalrand
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Posted - 2009.05.28 14:57:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
If in a 0.0 / low sec roam gang you end up having to stop and wait every other gate, in a doubly bigger fleet you must stop and wait at *every* gate.
You're wrong. Stop talking about things you don't understand.
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jk scowling
Sane Industries Inc. Ethereal Dawn
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Posted - 2009.05.28 20:04:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Kalrand
Originally by: gammatude
to imply that the recent reduction in 0.0 and low sec combat ops due to the jump bug
What 0.0 combat ops are you talking about? Last I checked, 0.0 combat wasn't affected by the jump bug anywhere near as much as empire-AFK-autopiloting was.
Wrong... The more people in fleet the worse the bug was, I was dropping at every gate at one point.
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Kalrand
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Posted - 2009.05.29 14:38:00 -
[30]
Originally by: jk scowling
Wrong... The more people in fleet the worse the bug was, I was dropping at every gate at one point.
Please, please, please, pretty please, oh please, try to blame all of ED's epic failure after epic failure on the jump bug.
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adriaans
Amarr Ankaa.
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Posted - 2009.05.29 17:40:00 -
[31]
it's going to spike hard in a while, just wait for it (might go even lower first though)
also, another thing to keep in mind, a large part of drone regions are under heavy fighting, a LOT of zydrine comes from there, the residents could be selling of lots and lots of drone stuff(aka, zydrine heavy) to finance replacements etc. -sig- Support the introduction of Blaze crystals for Amarr!
Originally by: UMEE if ure another fotm re-roller, then dont pvp. you'll fail.
QFT! |
Letrange
Minmatar Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2009.06.05 18:24:00 -
[32]
Don't see what the issue is.
Unintended consequence of wormhole space (or intended? you be the judge).
There are a lot of pilots who never had access to ABC/Mercoxit before that now have access to it. So no surprises there. Greater supply = dropping prices.
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Krathos Morpheus
Gallente Legion Infernal Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.06.05 19:25:00 -
[33]
Originally by: Letrange Don't see what the issue is.
Unintended consequence of wormhole space (or intended? you be the judge).
There are a lot of pilots who never had access to ABC/Mercoxit before that now have access to it. So no surprises there. Greater supply = dropping prices.
I'm not a miner, so please tell me if I'm missing something, but even with access to zydrine, Why miners would want to mine it at such low prices? Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?
EVE Knowledge
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Kalrand
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Posted - 2009.06.05 19:45:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Krathos Morpheus Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?
Yes. |
Arrador
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Posted - 2009.06.05 20:57:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: jullll zydrine will go up one day you guys think?
If CCP doesn't make any sweeping changes to missions/mining/manufacture, then Zydrine can only realistically go back up if Megacyte starts going down.
Err - I dunno. Megacyte prices are going down also - at a faster rate then Zydrine - at least in my region. |
Letrange
Minmatar Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2009.06.08 19:12:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Krathos Morpheus I'm not a miner, so please tell me if I'm missing something, but even with access to zydrine, Why miners would want to mine it at such low prices? Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?
isk/m3 of veldspar ~ 120-130 isk/m3 isk/m3 of Arkonor ~ 500 isk/m3 isk/m3 of Bistot ~ 450? isk/m3 isk/m3 of Crokite ~ 350? isk/m3
It's in that range anyways, zydrine would have to crash below 800 isk/unit AND Megacyte would need to go below 2000 isk/unit before ABC's would be un-interesting.
Here's the reality - as a manufacturer who occasionally mines I used to buy all minerals to refil my mineral bunkers for my planned production. Since Apocrypha, even with the sparsity of grav sites, I have become a net supplier of Megacyte and Zydrine while still buying all the 5 other lows. Note: I used to BUY all my Megacyte and Zydrine and a percentage of the lows, I now SELL Megacyte and Zydrine and buy a percentage of the lows.
Imagine that a lot of high sec carebears start doing the same, now picture the effect on the market... |
EnslaverOfMinmatar
Amarr Viziam
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Posted - 2009.06.08 21:56:00 -
[37]
Since this thread is about Zydrine, some people are selling Zydrine to me @ 0.01 isk each. |
Verite Rendition
Caldari F.R.E.E. Explorer Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2009.06.09 12:06:00 -
[38]
Originally by: Letrange
Originally by: Krathos Morpheus I'm not a miner, so please tell me if I'm missing something, but even with access to zydrine, Why miners would want to mine it at such low prices? Is it still more profitable than mining other mins at that prices?
isk/m3 of veldspar ~ 120-130 isk/m3 isk/m3 of Arkonor ~ 500 isk/m3 isk/m3 of Bistot ~ 450? isk/m3 isk/m3 of Crokite ~ 350? isk/m3
It's in that range anyways, zydrine would have to crash below 800 isk/unit AND Megacyte would need to go below 2000 isk/unit before ABC's would be un-interesting.
Here's the reality - as a manufacturer who occasionally mines I used to buy all minerals to refil my mineral bunkers for my planned production. Since Apocrypha, even with the sparsity of grav sites, I have become a net supplier of Megacyte and Zydrine while still buying all the 5 other lows. Note: I used to BUY all my Megacyte and Zydrine and a percentage of the lows, I now SELL Megacyte and Zydrine and buy a percentage of the lows.
Imagine that a lot of high sec carebears start doing the same, now picture the effect on the market...
Your numbers are quite a bit off.
If you figure Trit/Nocx/Zyd/Mega is at 4.15/65/1500/3950 respectively, you get:
Veld: 125isk/m3 Crokite: 254isk/m3 Bistot: 369isk/m3 Arkonor: 489isk/m3
Crokite, the staple ore of good 0.0, barely is worth 2x that of high-sec Veldspar. Risk/reward is totally out of whack. Never mind the fact that you'd have to be a fool to mine rather than run L4s right now.
Anyhow, your outcome predictions aren't too far off (I don't think they'd need to drop as much - trit would likely rise to maintain the insurance price floor, bridging the gap). |
Letrange
Minmatar Chaosstorm Corporation Apoapsis Multiversal Consortium
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Posted - 2009.06.09 16:47:00 -
[39]
I was using slightly higher zydrine and mega values as I could get higher values putting up sell orders and being out of Jita. Also I may have been basing myself off of what I remember from my prices 2 weeks ago. The point I was trying to make is that even at your pesimistic prices, all 3 are still better than Veldspar.
Honestly the risks in wormhole space are worth is since you're not dealing with ****d and pillaged high sec ores (Imagine there are some individual roids that some times take two sessions in some of these wh grav belts). So you've got a serious cycle advantage on top even for the same ore.
Most interruptions are actually not as bad as all that and detected in sufficient time to povide some nice PvP breaks in the routines. Just about any miner I've got has found WH space better than high sec in almost every way. There are only certain situations where you are totally hosed. Mind you it does away with AFK mining, you do need to pay attention. |
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