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Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.03 10:20:00 - [1] Originally by: Titans 4U Chapter 8 - Exit Strategy If the Titan BPC market dies we will liquidate all assets and pay all recovered isk to our investors. How much longer before you decide the market is dead? If you were to liquidate now, what percentage would you be able to recover - max and min? Two trustees appear to have left the game. Will that prevent you from liquidating?
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.03 11:10:00 - [2] Originally by: Ji Sama Haha Varo, I think we need a little more time to get a clear view of the sinus curve :D Market is crashing atm, it will recover :D That is the circle of eve. Rest of your points are more than valid, and would like an answer for that :D There are two exit strategies: 1. Hit by a bus - very clear. 2. BPC market dies - very imprecise. All I¦m suggesting is that the latter strategy is given more substance, otherwise there will be perpetual arguments. "It is dead!" "No, it¦s just a cycle." "Yeahbut, the NEXT expansion will buff Titans." "Yeahbut...." "If no BPCs are sold in two years, we will liquidate," or "If only one BPC is sold in a year, we will liquidate." Something like that, perhaps?
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.05 14:23:00 - [3] Originally by: Bad Bobby Originally by: Varo Jan Two trustees appear to have left the game. Will that prevent you from liquidating? The absence of trustees has no effect on liquidation provided I am still around. I¦m confused. I thought trustees were put in place to mitigate against the risk of you scarpering? Quote: Now I do understand your concerns, even though I believe the current situation is temporary, so I'll formulate a liquidation plan that fits in with the current research and copying schedule. That plan will have milestone dates where it makes sense to decide wether we put a BPO back in for another run or take it to Jita for liquidation. We can then discuss the matter prior to each of those milestones so that I can make a decision. Thanks for the detailed explanation. No doubt there will always be conflicting opinions on the market, so I¦d suggest you consider another less emotive angle. This project has always been touted as a long term investment, and rightly so. However, any project should have a minimum rate of return. The current benchmark for an ultra-safe investment is BMBE bonds, paying 3% monthly. This project has risks, all of which you have outlined previously, so the return ought to be higher - and I¦d suggest 100 basis points is very reasonable. In other words, if you have not and do not expect to make at least 4% monthly, you should liquidate. No doubt some will argue that number. But it would give you a more solid, less nebulous framework to operate in.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.05 15:54:00 - [4] Originally by: Bad Bobby Originally by: Varo Jan The current benchmark for an ultra-safe investment is BMBE bonds, paying 3% monthly. This project has risks, all of which you have outlined previously, so the return ought to be higher - and I¦d suggest 100 basis points is very reasonable. In other words, if you have not and do not expect to make at least 4% monthly, you should liquidate. The comparitive risks of investing in BMBE in comparison to this are debatable. The comparison of TornSoul's offering to this one is also a matter of apples and oranges. Using TornSoul's offering as the benchmark for the "failure point" of an IPO simply does not make sense. Such a benchmark would have to be taken from the advertised terms of equivalent IPOs or from the actual performance of IPOs that failed to return and liquidated in response. I think you'll find the average yield of such things is much lower than 3% and the idea of posing a 4% failure point is lunacy. I understand your concerns, but I think your expectations are unreasonable. Fair enough. You responded as expected, and I don¦t really disagree with you. So recommend a minimum return that you believe is fair and reasonable.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.05 17:21:00 - [5] Originally by: Dzil In my opinion, I'd rather let this investment ride than prematurely liquidate. Looks like I need to restate something. I am NOT suggesting liquidation. I am saying it makes sense to have an objective measure to determine WHEN liquidation should come into play. "We will liquidate if the market dies," which is the current strategy, is totally ambiguous, subjective and open to every armchair Titan warrior educating us. BB has the knowledge and the responsibility to recommend a more objective assessment - and to be measured against it.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.05 19:02:00 - [6] Originally by: Kalrand Two new directors could be hired to replace the old ones. Not could be, should be - should have been. Shar and Kazzac haven¦t been around in ages, and should be replaced. No reflection on them at all, it is what it is. Investors bought in under a risk profile that included 5 trustees. I¦d also suggest that trustees are automatically replaced in future if they are absent for X months.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.06 13:44:00 - [7] Originally by: Bad Bobby Originally by: Varo Jan Shar and Kazzac haven¦t been around in ages, and should be replaced. Shar is still around. I don't know about Kazzac though. Excellent news, his contributions have been missed. Then he won¦t mind posting here to confirm, will he? Originally by: Ji Sama Shar have been seen online. And I am sure Kazzac is around ;) Also I trusted my investment with Bobby, the trustees are just fluff imo :p Ji, fluff or not, that¦s the format BB chose and committed to. He has a responsibility to maintain all the terms and conditions of his IPO.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.01.08 15:52:00 - [8] Originally by: cosmoray I can set up a trial account, and hand shares to cosmoray who is on everyday. Be completed in next 2 days. Quote: Provision was made for 1% of profits to be paid to each Trustee in order to compensate them for their involvement. Some Trustees have waived this right, but the choice is yours. From memory, three out of four trustees waived this right - on the basis that the work involved was minimal. What do you intend to do?
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.03.22 21:05:00 - [9] Originally by: Titans 4U We have just sold a ME0 Leviathan BPC for 5000m. 500m has been retained to cover costs. Quote: Titans For You is plenty liquid with about 3.5 billion in isk from our POS fuel budget and our war chest. Our only costs are POS fuel and office rental. So we don't need to sell any BPCs to keep things going for years. So why retain 500m? Annualised returns are paltry as it is.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.03.22 23:02:00 - [10] Originally by: Breaker77 Originally by: Varo Jan Originally by: Titans 4U We have just sold a ME0 Leviathan BPC for 5000m. 500m has been retained to cover costs. Quote: Titans For You is plenty liquid with about 3.5 billion in isk from our POS fuel budget and our war chest. Our only costs are POS fuel and office rental. So we don't need to sell any BPCs to keep things going for years. So why retain 500m? Annualised returns are paltry as it is. Would you enjoy running one stop without making a single ISK for youself or the business?? Didn't think so Did you read the post properly? Didn't think so.

Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.03.23 12:59:00 - [11] Originally by: Bad Bobby Originally by: Varo Jan So why retain 500m? Annualised returns are paltry as it is. Are you really suggesting that I should inflate the dividend by ignoring operational costs? Quote: Titans For You is plenty liquid with about 3.5 billion in isk from our POS fuel budget and our war chest. Our only costs are POS fuel and office rental. So we don't need to sell any BPCs to keep things going for years. Assuming you were truthful in that last quote, what has changed? On the one hand you claimed you had enough in the kitty to keep going for years. Now you suddenly need 500m. Granted it is not a huge sum, but then you are unlikely to be paying your shareholders much at all in the foreseeable future. 5B for one Titan copy every nine months is a far cry from your original projection. What is your new projection? What percentage annual dividend do you believe you will be able to pay investors?
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.03.23 17:27:00 - [12] Originally by: Bad Bobby Varo, you know full well that costs have to be taken into consideration when calculating profits. You know that POSes need fuel and offices need rent. So, are you trolling me or what? Good grief. Ask a simple question and you get uppity. For the third time, you are the one who said not long ago, "Titans For You is plenty liquid with about 3.5 billion in isk from our POS fuel budget and our war chest. Our only costs are POS fuel and office rental. So we don't need to sell any BPCs to keep things going for years." So what swallowed up 3.5B in a few months? Certainly not 10k a month in office fees, nor fuels for a large POS with 2 advanced labs max. Are you making any money from the unused capacity at the POS? May be a good idea if returns are a max of 1% for the foreseeable future. Quote: Based on 9 BPCs per year at 5b per BPC, yielding 45b in revenue, deducting about 2b in costs for 43b in profits, 40b in annual dividends which is 19.6%. Averaged out that would be 1.6% per month. I'm hoping for more than 5b per BPC, but it depends on how the Titan BPC market behaves. Given how long it took you to sell one BPC, you are being extremely optimistic. 2 BPCs in the next twelve months seems more likely, meaning a monthly equivalent return of 0.25%, based on your numbers. Optimistic or pessimistic, the shares are not worth face value. That said, I suspect they'll continue to trade at more than they're worth because people are investing emotionally.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.03.25 00:39:00 - [13] Originally by: cosmoray Some costs are going to be required. Remember that the initial costs were based on a Titan BPC selling for 10B ISK. In that scenario 10% or 1B ISK would be taken for costs. Now that the BPC is selling for 5B ISK the 1B for costs still needs to be deducted, though this does have the effect of making costs total 20% of revenue on sales. No, it does not. Costs were set at 6% of sales for BB and 1% for the sole Trustee who insisted on being paid for his onerous responsibilities. Whether the BPCs sell for 5B or 20B is immaterial. Quote: It would be too dangerous to remove all liquid capital from the business. What happened if an opportunistic/unlucky wardec hit and the POS was put into reinforced which could have effect of cancelling the copying jobs. In this type of operation there is always a need for emergency capital. Who's talking about removing all liquid capital? BB claimed that the 3.5B was sufficient for years of operating and for a war chest. It just strikes me as odd that he suddenly changes his mind and adds the minor sum of 500m to his "war chest" (nice, emotive words) instead of paying his investors. He of all people has both the expertise and the resources to call on in the event of a war - and to ensure that war costs are minimised. Btw, copy jobs are not cancelled if the lab is temporarily offlined.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.03.25 13:37:00 - [14] Originally by: Bad Bobby Originally by: "The second post in this thread" Profits will be divided such that I will receive 6%, the trustees have been allocated a total of 4% and the shareholders will receive 90%. So far 3 of the 4 trustees have waived their right to claim their payment and their share will go to the shareholders instead. Notice the key word "profits" there? Profits are calculated by deductinng costs from revenue. This is why I think you are trolling me Varo, because you know all this and you know this is how it has to be done and yet you are raising an objection to it anyway. How come you are able to bring up quotes from five months ago to support your argument but you are aren't capable of reading the IPO document? Personally I think this is a silly argument caused by the fact that none of you have actually read and understood all the material in the two threads for this IPO. I can't blame you for that, because there is a lot of material there, but when it leads to you quoting non-existent IPO terms at me then you've gone well off-piste. My apologies, Bobby. I did misread the original post, and shouldn't have. A simplistic Profit and Loss statement from inception would be something like this: Sales 5000 Costs (6m?)900 Profit 4100 6.00% 246 1.00% 41 Net Profit available for distribution to shareholders:3813 So, if anything, the 500m you retained is probably less than actual costs of some 900m since inception, and the profit has been overstated.
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.05.07 18:49:00 - [15] Originally by: Titans 4U I've been buying cheap BPCs and reselling them. I'm not using Titans For You funds to do this (there isn't enough spare cash for that) but I'm selling them through the Titans For You shop thread. Items 1,2,3,4,7 & 11 are produced by Titans For You, items 5,6,8,9 & 10 were sourced elsewhere. Are you paying Titans For You anything for the use of its shop to sell your own BPCs?
Varo Jan Caravanserai Consulting	Posted - 2010.08.02 20:47:00 - [16] Originally by: Bad Bobby Dividend history: 4185m (of 4500m profits) distributed on 2010.03.22 between 204,000 shares (2.05%) 1302m (of 1400m profits) distributed on 2010.03.28 between 204,000 shares (0.64%) 1692m (of 1820m profits) distributed on 2010.03.31 between 204,000 shares (0.83%) 5050m (of 5430m profits) distributed on 2010.04.21 between 204,000 shares (2.47%) 5208m (of 5600m profits) distributed on 2010.05.16 between 274,000 shares (1.90%) 6510m (of 7000m profits) distributed on 2010.08.01 between 342,000 shares (1.90%) 1488m (of 1600m profits) distributed on 2010.08.01 between 342,000 shares (0.43%) What does that work out to for an investor who has held shares since inception a year ago? 0.85%?

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