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cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.08.25 22:06:00 -
[1]
I have looked through all the EBANK financials (publicly available), and assuming the losses are correct this is what I see (numbers approximate):
Liquid ISK = 90B ISK
Shares (liquidatable at current value) = 60B
Ventures (number quoted from Ray) = 30B
Loans = 104B
Assets (Titan BPC's) = 337B
Total Assets = 621B
Total deposits = 2,000B (2t)
Potential Loss = 1,369B
Conclusions:
1. If EBANK was to liquidate (could be done) investors would receive back approximately 30% of their proceeds in the account.
2. Approximately 500B in assets generates 23B in profits per month. This would take between 3-4 years to pay back all 2T.
Possible Solutions (Ideas)
1. Total Liquidation - would recover about 30% of all investor funds as of today
2. Capital Reduction - Liquidate assets and use those proceeds to rebase everybody's accounts (e.g. if EBANK recovers 30% of the money, reset all accounts in the database to that level), and then re-open EBANK to allow investors to withdraw or deposit from their rebased accounts. This would allow EBANK to reset on a secure footing and re-start their activities.
3. Distribute spare ISK accross the accounts (rebase), and provide shares to customers in percentage terms in EBANK on what assets are left (share portfolio, loans, Titan business, other), and pay diviends monthly. This allows shares to become liquid.
4. Allow investors to buyout current depositors at a market negotiated rate.
5. Freeze Accounts for upto 1 year (current option). EBANK tries to get back on its feet, and recover what it can for investors.
Whatever option EBANK chooses it should get a consensus from its customer base. If people wish to cash out (even at a lower level) then let them.
Other opinions welcome.
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Lecherito
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Posted - 2009.08.25 22:13:00 -
[2]
While the discussion is quite stimulating, Ebank officials have made it abundantly clear that people with money in bank have absolutely no say in what course of action is taken. Meaning, it looks like accounts will stay locked for as long as "ebank sees fit". Could be a year, could be never. Realistically, I see no way that Ebank could shrink the deficit to manageable levels within a year, given their listed assets. What does this mean for people with money in the bank? Well, there's a guy on the forums offering to buy @10% =P
-L
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Taikun
Gallente
20th Legion
Sodalitas XX
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:00:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Lecherito
Well, there's a guy on the forums offering to buy @10% =P
-L
*Ahem* 11%
Taikun
A criminal is a person with predatory instincts who has not sufficient capital to form a corporation. |
Dzil
Caldari
Halo Industries
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:24:00 -
[4]
Cosmo - you regularly track investments here on MD. Are there ANY banks, that have not gone belly up?
Dzil's Corp Sales - 200m |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Dark-Rising
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:37:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Dzil
Cosmo - you regularly track investments here on MD. Are there ANY banks, that have not gone belly up?
BMBE? If you can call it a bank that is.
-
Auditing and consulting
Before asking for investors, please read
http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and
http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
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cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:37:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Dzil
Cosmo - you regularly track investments here on MD. Are there ANY banks, that have not gone belly up?
IF, and I can't see how this can be turned around in the short-medium term, then every bank so far will have failed/defaulted/scammed.
Also if EBANK does suffer a 50-70% "haircut", then I would say that the secondary market has made a loss overall since inception (whenever that event occured).
Secondly, if a huge loss does occur, then those on the EBANK board (I think Ray, Shar and PP aside who tried to either stop certain actions or joined after events occurred), will take a huge reputation hit. It will mean that they failed in their oversight duties.
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Caleb Ayrania
Gallente
TarNec
New Eden Retail Federation
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:51:00 -
[7]
So generally if ebank went public and started operating on a public ownership, it could potentially get out of the cra-phole by launching on 2T total scheme.
Even though things look dire, I must admit I would consider buying in on an ebank IPO.
Are there any other ways to get out of this current drama?
Tycoon wannabe go here: SCC Lounge
Got Game? Peak a boo... |
Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
New Eden Research
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:56:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Caleb Ayrania
So generally if ebank went public and started operating on a public ownership, it could potentially get out of the cra-phole by launching on 2T total scheme.
Bad Bobby couldn't even fill his Titan IPO for 4 titan BPOs. How do you think a 2 trillion ISK IPO would do??
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cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.08.25 23:58:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Caleb Ayrania
So generally if ebank went public and started operating on a public ownership, it could potentially get out of the cra-phole by launching on 2T total scheme.
Even though things look dire, I must admit I would consider buying in on an ebank IPO.
Are there any other ways to get out of this current drama?
Problem is:
1. Would you invest in a 2T IPO, that is only worth 600-800B?
2. Would you trust an IPO from EBANK now?
Personally I think if the EBANK financials are correct people are looking at about 70-80% loss.
Admittedly 25% of the 2T is interest so the losses are lower, but....
20c on the dollar now is looking better than an unknown amount in a year, if your still playing!!
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Kazzac Elentria
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Posted - 2009.08.26 00:10:00 -
[10]
Originally by: cosmoray
20c on the dollar now is looking better than an unknown amount in a year, if your still playing!!
Someone put forth the idea of a credit default swap being setup... the more I think about it, the more the idea warms on me.
People and institutions like myself are willing to tie up large amounts of capital for long periods of time if necessary. I would purchase CDS up to the rate at 40% of original value.
Assuming Ebank goes solvent I would then stand to make a tidy sum. Assuming the practice is allowed, people could even resell them at a later date as well. |
For Sooth
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Posted - 2009.08.26 00:19:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Lecherito
While the discussion is quite stimulating, Ebank officials have made it abundantly clear that people with money in bank have absolutely no say in what course of action is taken. Meaning, it looks like accounts will stay locked for as long as "ebank sees fit".
Is all you needed to say, ebank got away with all your ISK, and all you can really do is say "We got hosed Tommy, we got hosed bad."
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Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
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Posted - 2009.08.26 00:38:00 -
[12]
I don't think making EBank public would be the best course of action for 2 reasons:
1. 2 trillion or anything more than 4 billion (as pointed out by cosmoray) is not likely to be filled.
2. Why would anyone in their right mind invest into a business that had no idea that they were operating under the water. Ray had made clear that EBank was running a deficit. Would you invest in a trader that didn't know if he was making a profit or not? Would you invest in a trader that was losing money and was making up for it by missioning?
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Brian Kwok
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Posted - 2009.08.26 00:44:00 -
[13]
Originally by: cosmoray
Secondly, if a huge loss does occur, then those on the EBANK board (I think Ray, Shar and PP aside who tried to either stop certain actions or joined after events occurred), will take a huge reputation hit. It will mean that they failed in their oversight duties.
Careful there Cosmo about where you do and do not point your finger. Several of the current board members weren't around for most of the mismanagement that occurred and several others that are no longer around are not as innocent as some people would like to believe. |
cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.08.26 00:46:00 -
[14]
Personally I think taking 20% now would be a good result (400B out of 2t). It looks like EBANK only has 600-700B is assets, as the balance sheet doesn't include the extra right-offs that are required on the loan book that Ray stated.
The returns only get better if EBANK keep the Titan program running and it adds over 100B over the next year.
I see it as 20% now or 30-40% (maybe) in a year. Bird in the hand is better than......
If groups of players with a large account balances in EBANK want to syndicate their accounts with me, I will guarantee a 20% return (no commision), but charge a 10% commision on all money returned over 20%.
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Caleb Ayrania
Gallente
TarNec
New Eden Retail Federation
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Posted - 2009.08.26 01:38:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Caleb Ayrania on 26/08/2009 01:39:00
Many things have gone wrong in ebank, but its loss is "only" on solvency..
If this had been a real bank a selling of it would be the logical solution..
Since it is not publically owned atm, then the natural step would be the IPO.
Would people invest.. Hmm I think its brand value and invested time is rather big, so I would risk saying yes.. Sure MD peoples basis for investment in general is a bit meh, but hey it might evolve..
I would do it in three stages, as I mentioned in discussion in the lounge..
Step one offer the first 40-52% internally to depositors in a 1-1 or maybe even 2-1 offer.. Also here offered to the BOD and other affiliates.
Step two offer it to the general public, I would maybe even suggest launching this part as a virtual share on evecr, thus spreading the operations of the general MD portfolios.
Step three prepare an emission after making a big overhaul to product develpoment and a brand new biz plan, with a proper exit strategy.. In this part make sure the scheme of the employments is worked out. I would say all employees would be payed only in an options or small percentage of profit scheme. Thus the better the bank performs the more pro the employment and BOD would become..
Just saying the mere name, the age and the brand is worth a lot more than some estimates, and the hours put into it more then makes up for the missing liquidity..
Ebank can be saved, but I think its a matter of evolving to a more mature stage, one that some might not think we are ready for yet..
Tycoon wannabe go here: SCC Lounge
Got Game? Peak a boo... |
Galal Dax
The Panopticon
G-R-I-E-V-A-N-C-E
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Posted - 2009.08.26 01:45:00 -
[16]
Originally by: cosmoray
Personally I think if the EBANK financials are correct people are looking at about 70-80% loss.
Admittedly 25% of the 2T is interest so the losses are lower, but....
20c on the dollar now is looking better than an unknown amount in a year, if your still playing!!
cosmoray - agree with you on this.
The loss has already occurred.
They should just distribute what is there, 20-30% of the ISK if that is all that is left, and close it down.
The question people should ask is not if they can somehow get Ebank to make the rest of their ISK back - the missing 70%, but would they invest most of their new ISK in Ebank as it stands today? That is what they are doing if they don't liquidate, and the keep going with this scheme.
Please, someone tell me that Bernie Madoff has not been spending his last few weeks in prison hacking in to the Ebank accounts to do even further mischief...
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cosmoray
Cosmoray Construction
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Posted - 2009.08.26 02:22:00 -
[17]
I think it is time to realise that with current assets around 800B, and even after Ricdic SCAM and his default loan (total 450-500B), they are still 600-700B under water.
This would mean that EBANK NEVER, EVER made any money. If this turns out to be the case, the rest of the heritage board are rsponsible for that!!
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Madeleine Albright
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Posted - 2009.08.26 02:52:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Madeleine Albright on 26/08/2009 02:52:18
Originally by: cosmoray
I think it is time to realise that with current assets around 800B, and even after Ricdic SCAM and his default loan (total 450-500B), they are still 600-700B under water.
This would mean that EBANK NEVER, EVER made any money. If this turns out to be the case, the rest of the heritage board are rsponsible for that!!
The words you are searching for are:
1. eBank = PONZI scheme
2. Heritage Board = Ponzi managers
No thanks required.
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Lexander Morinex
Caldari
LDD Investments
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Posted - 2009.08.26 03:16:00 -
[19]
Two Thoughts:
1. I would think most players could double their investment faster than EBANK can reasonably expect to do the same.
2. One year is a lifetime for a MMORPG. As much as I applaud the potential integrity of the EBANK BoD I find myself wondering why one would expect anybody to spend an entire year basically working for free in an enterprise that has suffered a serious reputation loss.
- Lexander Morinex
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Professor Leech
Transmetropolitan
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Posted - 2009.08.26 03:28:00 -
[20]
Originally by: cosmoray
I think it is time to realise that with current assets around 800B, and even after Ricdic SCAM and his default loan (total 450-500B), they are still 600-700B under water.
This would mean that EBANK NEVER, EVER made any money. If this turns out to be the case, the rest of the heritage board are rsponsible for that!!
446B in interest payments to give the ponzi scheme the appearance of being a business, nothing unusual there. 75B in director hush money, and some other missing isk.
Originally by: Crawe DeRaven
this thread is obviously going places
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Gareth Montesque
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Posted - 2009.08.26 03:41:00 -
[21]
I feel bad for Ray, talking about getting a sh!t sandwich with a side of duck butter. Honestly, I see no way an IPO would work, we are talking getting 1.3 trillion in investment just to break even. Add to this no proof Ebank has ever made an actual profit during its run, admitting most of that was due to mismanagement and out right fraud. The worst piece being this is RL most people can't foresee themselves waiting 2-3 years (more realistic) just to break even.
Liquidation seems the way to go, EVE is a harsh world. I've taken my losses, they suck but that's part of this game.
In all honesty Ray and his core employees should end Ebank and build a new venture, in my book he continues to build respect but honestly he's trying to save the Titanic with a dixie cup.
Gareth
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Caleb Ayrania
Gallente
TarNec
New Eden Retail Federation
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Posted - 2009.08.26 04:00:00 -
[22]
Epic use of CEO fall guy...
Early Years..
Golden parachute Ray?
Tycoon wannabe go here: SCC Lounge
Got Game? Peak a boo... |
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