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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.08 18:14:00 -
[1]
not that i understand too much about this, but given current prices there are margins on simple reactions between 8 and 40%... i think thatll make for some nice opportunities.
thanks for all the work akita, and i hope you litterally will earn tons of iskies with this thread.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 16:27:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 10/11/2009 16:27:50
What i dont get: If you take Buy Order Price of Platinum and Technetium, which the later only being used in a Platinum Technite reaction, an take the current Sell Orders of Pt. Technite, you get a gigantonormous 3.5% margin, not to speak of taking actual sell order prices of those two moon goos.
And yes, i hold a few hundred k of pt. technite 
edit: those 3.5% not considering pos fuel ofc, but thats for free as we all know
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 18:23:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)
As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 19:00:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Turiel Demon
Originally by: Julian Koll
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Akita T
Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.
Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)
As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.
How does that calc go? I don't know about POS manufacture but I'm wondering about Hexite and Fullerides atm
Lets say you take 1b worth of A (buy order price) and 500m worth of B (buy order price) and you use half the capacity of a large pos to make C that you could buy from sellorders for 1550m... but that large POS costs you 150m each month to run... you get what i mean?
and as i put quite some work in my spreadsheat i am not sure if i am willing to share it... but its not that difficult to do
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.10 19:36:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
...mining their own...
sounds awefully familiar, doesnt it. But enough of me trying to raise the price in pt technite.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.11 12:33:00 -
[6]
So, i had another look at the simple reaction and did some math.
I used buy order price for raw materials
I used sell order price for intermediate materials
I assumed 150m / month POS fuel for using the capacity of half a large POS.
The Results are as follows:
negative ROI:
Sulfuric Acid
Silicon Diborite
Ceramic Powder
Carbon Polymers
Rolled Tungsten
Pt Technite
ROI between 0% and 20%:
Hexite
Vanadium Hafnite
Prometium
Hyperflurite
ROI above 20%:
Crystallite Alloy
Fernite
Titanium Chromide
Caesarium Cadmide
Solerium
Ferrofluid
Dysporite
Neo Mercurite
Fluxed Condensates
This however does just take current market values, not their development, into regard.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.12 01:01:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 12/11/2009 01:01:03
To return to my quest of raising stuff that i am invested in:
Taking POS fuel into account the following Technetium Products perform with buy order price of raw materials:
PT. Technite: -15.92% ROI
Fullerides: -35.63% ROI
Nanotransistors: 1.40% ROI
So my conclusion for speculating on a rising TC price is, buy the products.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.14 13:14:00 -
[8]
Just came online and had a look at certain materials and had to laugh and laugh and laugh. If someone wants to jump the train, have a look the the corresponding advanced materials... price change has not reached them yet.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.17 17:50:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 17/11/2009 17:50:44
Just updated my spreadsheet with current buy order prices for raw materials, current sell orders for advanced ones and again calculated 150m/m per simple reaction and 300m/m per complex reaction for the pos fuel. ROI is as follows:
Tungsten Carbide 45.81%
Titanium Carbide 68.49%
Fernite Carbide 88.91%
Crystalline Carbonide 41.15%
Slyramic Fibers 53.89%
Fullerides -20.92%
Phenolic Composits 25.01%
Nanotransistors 27.57%
Hypersynaptic Fibers 16.91%
Ferrogel 15.02%
Fermionic Condensates 21.66%
The big question is, looking at those highly profitable reaction chains and the one operating at a loss, if either the raw materials involved or the advanced material produced are out of line.
The spreadsheet i use is this one: http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/reaction_blank.rar
Just type in the numbers you deem correct (buy, sell, whatever).
Edit: It might not be working on MS Office. Tried it this weekend at my friends PC and it did not convert the formulas.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.19 14:20:00 -
[10]
as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:
fermionic condensates are by akita's analysis about to tank. lets assume this is correct for the sake of simplicity
so what my analysis is showing:
Assumptions:
1 POS fuel p/m is 300m
2 POS setup cost is 500m (for tower and stuff)
3 You buy intermediate materials directly from Jita sellorders
4 You sell your advanced materials instantly at sellorder price (yes, i know this is wrong, but i simplifies the math)
5 hauling is done instantly and at no cost (as above, wrong, but for the sake of simplicity)
6 At day one, you purchase the POS, half a month worth of fuel and half a month worth of input materials
7 At day 15, you sell half a month worth of advanced materials, buy another half month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
8 At day 30, you sell another half month worth of advanced materials, buy half a month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
9 and so on
The result:
- you did earn just about 2.2b ISK
- your ROI was 55.96%
if you modify #6 to buyorder price
- you earn about 590m ISK
- your ROI was about 15%
lets assume (again  ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.
I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?
My head hurts 
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.26 02:21:00 -
[11]
i bet my 2 waffles that tech will be in the 10 to 12k range by tomorrow morning. |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 10:44:00 -
[12]
i have to give credit. seeding rumors when the majority of players are unable to check themselfs at sisi... seems like someone wanted to jump the tech train and intended to lower its price a little before doing that.
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 19:21:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Gnulpie
Originally by: Akita T
Oh well, we'll just wait for it to hit TQ then. I probably will be sleeping when the extended downtime hits, and SiSi might not come back at all until after the patch.
Sisi is up and results on the nanotransistor reaction will be available in 1 1/2 hours directly from the latest Sisi build (117806).
If I am trustworth enough is a whole different topic though.
Oh, and someone just jumped the Nanotransistor train and got it rolling :-)
that looks like a lot of work for proving a troll, who got backed by his alt, wrong. Thanks anyway
oh, and even with tech calculated at 26k a unit, nanotransistors produce at about 2k each... so i know what i would buy :)
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.11.30 21:32:00 -
[14]
Edited by: Julian Koll on 30/11/2009 21:33:17
i did some minimal math on nanotransistors, and, very roughly, a rise in tech of 30k results in a rise of nanos of 1000, so with a nano price of 4k, you could buy tech at about 90k and still not make a loss... i really dont think that, besides speculation caused, we will see a shortage in nano (and its reactors)
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Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.12.01 20:03:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Count MonteCarlo
Looks like we're in the clear
good times to be had 
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2009.12.14 21:50:00 -
[16]
Originally by: BlondieBC
Originally by: Dretzle Omega
Originally by: Lieutenant Obvious
"There's no such thing as opportunity cost" :(
They actually said that to you?
I have a decades experience in financial analysis in RL, and i can assure you many people believe that in real life. So why should eve be different?
Just hold on to the material and sell in a few months, or if have cash, buy more stock and help drive the price to the "correct" level. Just be real sure your "correct" level is correct.
So, to get this right:
We have this huge nerd game where a lot of people suck in math and economics.
And we have a real world, with a quite lower rate of nerds, and they also suck at math and economics. If not even more.
shocking.
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.03.11 18:18:00 -
[17]
correct me if i'm wrong, but as neo is r64 and tec is r32, there are supposed to be less neo moons than tec moons, and as the fotm product nanotransistors takes both of them in the same quantities, neo demand should be close to tech demand. this of course is just wild speculation and based on absolutely nothing but the will to drive the price of neo up.
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.03.11 19:17:00 -
[18]
i understand your point, but if my assumption is correct that there are half as many r64 moons as r32 ones, even if fullerides accounted for half of tech's demand, neo should be on the same price level.
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Julian Koll
The Kollektive
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Posted - 2010.03.18 14:13:00 -
[19]
another thought i just had: lets look at neo trade volume in jita, its more or less 0.5m a day, with a few spikes. Thats about 15m a month. Now we look at the neo moons, as said earlier, there are about 200 of them, each producing 72k units a month, a total of 14,4m units. These numbers are ofc not reflecting buy/sell transactions, speculation but also neo that never sees the market and is used for reactions by its producer (or privately traded).
One of you wiseguys feel like having a more sophisticated look at this? |
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