Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: Akita T

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So, I guess they'll probably do a bit of both with a twist :
* tone down the microprocessors by -25% or so (still noticeably more than what we have on TQ)
* INCREASE racial capacitor usage by around 20% to compensate for the drop in microprocessors
* reduce fullerides from 15 to 5 or thereabouts

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GAAH, that wouldn't do much good either
Technetium does indeed get closer to neodymium like that, but it's still over... and worse, CHROMIUM jumps above technetium in rarity...

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Originally by: Akita T

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Edited by: Akita T on 03/11/2009 18:33:33

Originally by: Turiel Demon

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I don't see the harm in Chromium getting some love.

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Let's put things into perspective...

WHY do you think in the past two months dysprosium and promethium were so damn expensive, while everything else was nearly worthless ?
Because everybody had to wait for enough dysprosium and promethium to be mined in order to do anything, while other types of materials kept stockpiling higher and higher, until (some) people were forced to stop mining those types of minerals altogether because they became nearly worthless.

If the numbers are correct, then right now (or, well, in the recent past), the ENTIRE supply of dysprosium was being consumed with prices per unit reaching 160k or so from about 120k a year back, and about 98% of promethium supply was consumed, with prices hovering around 140k in the very recent past, after having been far below 100k a year ago.
The rest of materials, those that were using far less of the total possible capacity were only selling for a pittance compared to those two... none of them even reached 10k per unit - that's an absurdly low price... but that's the only price people were willing to pay, since they HAD to pay truckloads for the other two, which were crucial - if you didn't pay enough, you couldn't build.
So, you reached a point where nearly 90% of the VALUE in a T2 ship was derived from the cost of those two moon minerals which were consumed almost entirely.

Now, enter Dominion... suddenly, you need far less promethium and dysprosium, so prices for those two start dropping fast... however, you need a truckload more neodymium - but that's reasonable still, because there was more of it to begin with, so you could build more if neodymium would be the one material that's being completely eaten up... however, technetium usage has roughly DOUBLED in Dominion... the same items that are being traded right now only used about 60% of available technetium, but in Dominion the same items would eat up ALL of it, and then some ("120%", lol).
Basically, that would mean that T2 prices won't be going down, they'll be going UP, and most of the value that was previously split between promethium and dysprosium will be gobbled up by technetium... and it's just ONE mineral, so it takes ALL of it... say hello to 300k ISK/unit for technetium !
Of course, assuming the moon distribution data is even remotely relevant.

Now, you say, what would be the harm in chromium "getting some love" ?
Well... nothing... if you want chromium to cost 300k ISK per unit !

Before Dominion, the "top 8" usage rates (including estimated alchemy usage) out of total maximum possible production looked like this:
Dysprosium - 100%
Promethium - 97.8%

After Dominion, estimated usage rates (only difference being SiSi changed construction data) look like this right now for the "top 8":
Technetium - 100.0%
Chromium - 79.7%
Neodymium - 71.7%



The only way to have the price split between as many minerals as possible is to have the "adjusted rarity" for the most needed ones (as percentage of total potential production) be extremely close together.
Why extremely close together ? Well, see what a mere 2% difference meant for promethium-vs-dysprosium price !
ONE material has to be the bottleneck, that much is certain - you will always have a bottleneck.
The problem is you need to make the rest of the "want to be desirable" materials use up nearly their entire total potential stocks, or else their prices will drop to negligible levels, and only the fuel costs will determine their value.

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Originally by: Akita T

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I see the market is reacting nicely, but it's still nowhere close to what the data indicates - can't blame anybody, the patch is still three weeks away and the data is not completely reliable, so caution is indeed advisable... but you don't make profits without taking any risks whatsoever

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Originally by: Natasha Nikolaev

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Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: WarlockX

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edit: it seems solerium is already sky high. lol.

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Well, as soon as all cheap advanced materials and moon minerals were grabbed, people moved for the intermediate reactions, obviously.

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Interestingly, chromium is still relatively low. Seems it's taking some time for all of the stocks people have been holding onto due to chromium plummeting over the last few months to get sucked up.

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Originally by: Akita T

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Edited by: Akita T on 10/11/2009 16:36:06


Oh by the way... after you mentioned tungsten carbide and its weird performance, I was just double-checking everything about carbides in my sheet... lo and behold, it seems one of the fields was in the wrong place... tungsten carbide was registering as using chromium instead of platinum : instead of data being in cell K35 where it should have been, it was in cell L35.
So basically, chromium and platinum more or less trade rarity places with eachother.

So, the new rarity order is NOT the one that was mentioned until now, i.e.
technetium/neodymium/chromium/platinum/dysprosium/promethium/mercury
but instead is either
technetium/neodymium/platinum/chromium/dysprosium/promethium/mercury
or even
technetium/neodymium/platinum/dysprosium/chromium/promethium/mercury
(since chromium and dysprosium seem to be very close to each-other, rarity percentage-wise, in Dominion)

Not a huge difference, but a difference nevertheless.
___

I don't believe titanium carbide nor chromium would go down noticeably (actually, I believe they still have some extra increase to do from their current places, but you never know), therefore, it's just that all platinum-containing things should start to go up much harder. So, predictions :
* platinum up most in the near future
* platinum-containing simple reactions and also fullerides less than half the increase of platinum
* tungsten carbide going up quite nicely too
* some smaller increase in nanotransistors (they were already up because of technetium)
* NO CHANGE for sylramic fibers (since they use both chromium and platinum)
* hypersinaptic fibers uncertain change, possible (but not very likely) slight decrease

___

Here's the new corrected sheet (version "3b"):
http://dl.eve-files.com/media/0911/T2stuff_Dominion_2_afterDom_v3b_Office2007.zip (Linkage)

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Originally by: Julian Koll

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Originally by: Claire Voyant

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Originally by: Akita T

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Price of simple reactions is notoriously slow to align to raw material prices ("it lags")... even advanced materials (i.e. complex reaction outputs) align faster to raw moon mineral prices than those simple reaction outputs.
Why ? You'd have to ask the guys doing the reacting and selling of simple reactions, I guess. Everybody else seems to be much faster on the uptake.

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Pretty simple actually. Anybody doing advanced reactions is probably going to also do their own simple reactions at the same time so they have a steady supply. Raw materials are pretty easy to get in quantity, while people selling simple reactions are mostly small-timers who can't afford to get into advanced reactions yet. The end result is that trading in simple reactions is pretty thin and the prices are not as representative as raw materials and advanced reactions. Personally, I would ignore all the prices for simple reactions and just calculate based on the raw material price (except for the "gases" which are not usually worth the cost of hauling.)

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As i heard this argument a few times, i still disagree. Lets use current market prices and calculate 150m a month for the pos fuel (half a big one, number might be slightly off). So you get a 0% return on the pt technite reaction with a price of 5650 isk, anything below that, shut down the pos and buy of market.

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Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Can anyone explain to me the anemic performance of tungsten carbide compared to the other carbides?

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I'm not really that surprised tungsten carbide isn't going sky-high just yet since platinum hasn't spiked that hard, but what I am surprised is that fernite carbide is going up like mad ; if anything, it should be the other way around.
Oh well, I guess the fernite carbide market, being the lowest-volume one out of the four is the one reacting fastest to the stock shortages...

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Originally by: Akita T

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technetium100.00%
neodymium69.43%
platinum62.91%
chromium55.41%
dysprosium50.92%
promethium47.77%
mercury46.54%
cadmium36.48%
vanadium28.05%
titanium18.83%
hafnium18.14%
caesium12.40%
evaporite deposits8.65%
silicates8.47%
tungsten7.27%
scandium7.05%
thulium5.99%
cobalt5.18%
atmospheric gasses3.00%
hydrocarbons2.82%

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Originally by: Amantus

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Hi guys what's going on.

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Originally by: Tiberizzle

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Looks like a lot of people are trying to cash out on Tech now that it went past 10K, someone with a big stock (the 580K order) seems particularly desperate to move it, he's moved it down in massive increments all day trying to match every 1000 unit order that undercuts by 4k, taking the price from 30K to 16K pretty much single-handedly heh

Ah well... I expect someone will take it off his hands as soon as it gets down close to 10k again

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re: that order

Initial Vol579,300
Vol Remaining 579,300

lulz

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Originally by: Dahkare Raynor

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Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.

I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish

Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)

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Originally by: Julian Koll

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as i continued working on my spreadsheet today, i got a very strange result:

fermionic condensates are by akita's analysis about to tank. lets assume this is correct for the sake of simplicity

so what my analysis is showing:
Assumptions:
1 POS fuel p/m is 300m
2 POS setup cost is 500m (for tower and stuff)
3 You buy intermediate materials directly from Jita sellorders
4 You sell your advanced materials instantly at sellorder price (yes, i know this is wrong, but i simplifies the math)
5 hauling is done instantly and at no cost (as above, wrong, but for the sake of simplicity)
6 At day one, you purchase the POS, half a month worth of fuel and half a month worth of input materials
7 At day 15, you sell half a month worth of advanced materials, buy another half month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
8 At day 30, you sell another half month worth of advanced materials, buy half a month worth of fuel and another half month worth of input materials
9 and so on

The result:
- you did earn just about 2.2b ISK
- your ROI was 55.96%

if you modify #6 to buyorder price
- you earn about 590m ISK
- your ROI was about 15%

lets assume (again ) that the truth is somewhere in the middle of those two results, the fermionic condensates reaction is atm the most profitable advanced reaction, both in terms of relative ROI and absolute profit.

I am honestly not sure what to read out of this analysis. On one side we expect the material to tank, on the other side it is highly profitable to produce it. Are intermediate materials undervalued? Are FCs about to tank even more? Is the whole speculation on raw materials influencing this?

My head hurts

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Originally by: Cista2

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Originally by: Dahkare Raynor

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I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.

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Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.

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Originally by: Dahkare Raynor

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Edited by: Turiel Demon on 19/11/2009 12:57:16

Originally by: Dahkare Raynor

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Let me clarify my opinion. They were buying, but I think its reached a point to where it's stopping and coming back down. Sell order has dropped 300 from the peak today and buy orders have dropped 200. I had mine up @ top sell order, pretty much all day since the 2800 spike and none of it sold.(i was checking every 10 minutes while watching lie to me/house) It appeared to me that this small speculation bubble is over.

I am SURE plat will spike up after the patch, but I believe we are going to see ups and down in the plat market until then. I think sell orders WILL drop down to 2000 and buy orders back to 18ish

Although, I very well could be totally wrong thats just my impression. :)

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Apparently someone disagrees with you. Plat just got bought up to past 3K yet again, the second time in a week.
[...]

I think over 3k per unit right now is a little ambitious, and will likely entice people with stock bought low to cash out like what happened to Technetium last weekend when it shot past 10K for a day. We could see a similar crash and slow recovery just like that if Plat price is brought up too high.
[...]

EDIT: I've been thinking about about Neodymium. We haven't talked about it in here for a while but it's growing with impressive stability. Rise and stall, rise and stall, but no fall to speak of, unlike the more wild rides of Technetium, Platinum and Chromium.

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I was definitely wrong about the plat! Good job on holding on. But I don't think I was wrong about it coming back down. I still think it will come down to the 1800's before it goes back up again. The price has spiked too high without excess demand. But we will see.

I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.

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Originally by: Tesal

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Ok, now this is just getting stupid.

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Originally by: Tesal

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Originally by: Tesal

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Ok, now this is just getting stupid.

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What exactly?


Anyways, it's been a while since we were talking up Technetium... let's talk technetium to a higher level guys!

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There is zero content to these posts, no technical data, just "this is up" or "buy this". This is not conducive to people buying into value, its conducive to ripping people off.

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:49:37
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 16:44:41

Originally by: Cista2

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Originally by: Dahkare Raynor

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I definitely agree with you on neodymium. I bought some more @ 9k the other day because I agree with you. It seems like a very stable counter part to technetium. Especially if they decide to Nerf just technetium.

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Unless some large loads are dumped on the market, Neodymium will jump to 20k within the next 3 days.

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ok cramer

any other hot stock tips

for the record: neo, three days after this post: 11k

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 23/11/2009 21:06:15

Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Ohai. Bolded the important part.

A few hours after Cista's post that day someone dumped a huge sell order on the market which was about 2x the volume of what had been between 10K and 20K at the time of posting.


Neo did in fact somewhat unexpectedly (given the big stock dumped on the market) go to 15k for a short time in the last few days, and it will probably work its way to 20K by the end of the week.

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of course large loads were going to be dumped on the market, that was obvious, it's also obvious it would cause the price to go down

"unless the usual thing happens to restrain the price, the price will go up" i'm a stock analyst give me all your money

here is a hot tip for you: the price will go down, unless people are buying more than people are putting on the market

[...]

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Originally by: Tesal

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Edited by: Tesal on 23/11/2009 23:30:35
Hey, I was trolling this thread! Go back to CAOD Goon.

On paper I made 100b isk after the patch.

*edit

Originally by: Turiel Demon

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[stuff]

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Meh...what if you have half a million units? And what if 60 other people have half a million units? Where does that put that decision?

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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The amount of stock that is 'out there' at any given time may not be known, but the general level can be estimated at don't you think?

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either your estimates are horribly low or you don't quite understand what it means that there's that much out there

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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ok turiel demon, I hinted at this before, but why might someone want to dump neo now?

hint: neo speculation isn't risk-free, if there was more time to dominion I'd be selling right now but since there's only a week and ccp is clearly overloaded I'm not, why would that be

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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i have no complaints there's much better people to bounce ideas off in goonswarm

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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but man are you guys touchy at being called out when your predictions fall flat on their face

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Originally by: Tesal

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Thats exactly what I am saying, that only a tiny fraction is on the market now.

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 25/11/2009 02:08:00

Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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people with moons tend to be actual spaceholding alliances and we have all been completely aware of what neo was going to do since that idiot csm leaked it everybody who is anybody is stockpiling it

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On the other hand, technetium has been in the public eye only since 3 weeks ago...

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Right, though given how the CSM thing went down I'd imagine technetium was an unintended effect while balancing neo was intended. However you're correct people definitely haven't been stockpiling that for nearly as long so the amount of speculative stockpiles is probably a fraction of neo (plus, many people have suspected for a while neo and thulium would get buffed and have been mining and stockpiling it)

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Originally by: Akita T

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You posted the same image link twice...

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Originally by: EvilCheez

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Someone went on a spree

Technetium - 27k
neodymium - 20k

High volume on carbides

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Originally by: fmercury

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Edited by: fmercury on 27/11/2009 09:16:03
The price of tech/neo has increased 15-30x, but fullerides/fernite carbide haven't gone up by more than 50%, what gives?

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Originally by: Mahke

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nice things

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Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: EvilCheez

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If there are any last minute nerfs/buffs will these definately be listed in the patch notes?

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I somehow doubt the patch notes will mention more than "an alchemy boost to *4 effectiveness" and "several adjustments to T2 component manufacture time and T2 ship manufacture required material amounts".

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Originally by: Count MonteCarlo

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Thanks for that post, I enjoy reading them, does this mean that the likely hood of technetium getting nerfed a lot lower than previously thought ?

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Quote:

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Science and Industry

* The Tech 2 ship component composition has been changed. Full details can be found in the blog by CCP Chronotis The streams must flow.
* Manufacture time for some construction components (armor plates and microprocessors) has been reduced.
* The volume of carbides (advanced materials) has been reduced to 0.01m3 from 0.05m3.
* The quantity of Sylramic Fibers required to produce the armor plate construction material has been reduced to 10 per unit.

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Originally by: Vodun

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Get a life!!

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Originally by: EvilweaselSA

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sisi's patched and there is no change to the actual reaction blueprint, and I highly doubt the description on the details page is seperate from the actual values, it would be easier to program it to pull those directly from the real values

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Originally by: Astreaul

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tl;dr

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Originally by: Simon Mickey

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The price of tech has hit 23.9k or thereabouts last I checked, and it's set to rise as the demand for it skyrockets.

The reaction does indeed yield only 1.5k, not 3k.

Good news for everyone who's invested in it

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Originally by: Furious Ratter

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but if the amount of reactors isnt sufficient and someone clears of the nanotransistors and keeps clearing them regulary, whole empire t2 manufacturing business gets a kick in the nuts.

Lets call it... The Nanotransistors Crisis (*dramatic music*)

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Originally by: Quince Dupree

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Lets talk about this chomium moons I have about 6 towers up on them atm, are they gonna even break even on fuel?

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Originally by: Tesal

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Tech sell orders have over a million units above 22k and 16 sell orders in the past day.

Buy orders are held up by a single pre patch 256k unit blocking order at 17.8k per unit. Once that order clears the next level of support is at 11-12k.

Oh god. Somebody better jump in and prop up the price. Hurry. Do it now.

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Originally by: Tesal

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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silliness concerning Tech

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You laugh now, you will cry later.

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Originally by: Ronaldo Carrare

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Originally by: Akita T

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Hmm, looks like the SHC thread
http://www.scrapheap-challenge.com/viewtopic.php?t=30887&postorder=desc (Linkage)
is so much more lively than this one

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You have to thank Turiel for this, he's attracted a lot of people into this. Watch out MD Elite, SHC is coming after you.

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Originally by: Akita T

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Now the question is, why doesn't somebody bloody educate the guys up north already as to how much Technetium will be worth eventually so they stop freakin' selling it for a pittance right now ?

It's not _that_ hard, really, just "lowest sell order at 100k/unit and no more questions"...

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Originally by: Tesal

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Also, there is a way to check moons. Just take a sample of what you know for certain, come up with an average per region, and project it over remaining regions. If your sample is big enough, you will get an answer that is accurate. You can also look at the typical amounts CCP puts into R64, R32 and so on per region, and come up with a baseline average or guestimate. Depending on the data sets you use, and how you calculate it, you get more moons than what is projected here most of the time. Some project as many as 850 tech moons. You then need to decide if these numbers are partially correct, or completely wrong and why. You can average several techniques as a way of eliminating error. Akita is using a number that is far too conservative in my estimation.

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Originally by: Xavier Hayes

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I LOL till I wet myself on the discussions referring to the two spikes in the Dysprosium market. Let me set the record straight here: the spikes weren't caused by a bottleneck or such, but by some MAJOR market manipulation.

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Originally by: Mahke

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Edited by: Mahke on 21/12/2009 19:51:36
Instead of fullerides going up to converge with tech, tech collapsed down

Sold 2.5mil fullerides to sell orders down to 920 at a loss (130mil or so, made billions form moon mineral speculation so oh well, win some lose some) to get the liquidity I need to put a floor under tech prices so as to protect the rest of my investment. Buy orders up 1.5k so far, I'll hopefully have the floor at a decent level by tonight. Might work out badly but, someone has to do it .

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Originally by: EvilCheez

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Out of tech myself, but it will be interesting to see if we can tell when TornSoul fills that 100B bond by watching moongoo.

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Originally by: Tiberizzle

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Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: Barton Foley

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I wonder if we can break 100k this weekend.

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During the course of this "extended weekend", we might get there (don't hold your breath), but it won't last long, and the volume traded at/above that level will be pretty low.

Quote:

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I also wonder what happens when we hit triple digits and everyone and their dog dumps inventory.

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---

I am going to second "don't hold your breath". It seems (relatively) stable around 50k +/-5k sell, and there are enough large orders covering the price spectrum to dampen any large movements. It will take either a huge spike in demand, a similar interruption of supply, or (more) massive manipulation to push into triple digits so soon (if ever).

From what I've seen it is speculation and speculation alone holding the price as high as it is: the sellers would be happy with it to be under 40k. Once or twice a day large (10-30b) positions are being assumed with buy order support, after which throat-cutting by station traders drives the price down rapidly to the minimum margin over outstanding buys while buys trend down until the next large movement.

Further, intermediate and advanced reactions don't reflect the Technetium demand at all. Prices on reaction products have been trailing technetium movement for hours if not days until speculation reached them. If in fact the pressure on technetium was in any way indicative of manufacturing demand, we would expect to see movement in the reaction products leading or closely following technetium. This implies those who are purchasing the Technetium must not be using it: if they were rational and making use of it, they would favor the cheaper reaction products.

To what extent the current demand and price point is entirely synthetic is anyone's guess. It is clear that speculators are fighting against overwhelming supply. Will stockpiles run out before the speculators pockets are empty? Can manufacturing demand alone sustain these prices?

It is my opinion, in any case, that waiting for stable growth from here on will be "holding your breath," and unless your position is in the tens of billions you will find better opportunities for growth elsewhere. Trading on the volatility remains profitable, but will do little to raise the ceiling for those holding long positions.

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Originally by: Grozen

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Bumping this because there's bout 20b worth of tech in 1sell order atm and somehow i don't see this matched in the buy orders.Its going down from there very badly.

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Originally by: Stafen

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Originally by: Julian Koll

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i understand your point, but if my assumption is correct that there are half as many r64 moons as r32 ones, even if fullerides accounted for half of tech's demand, neo should be on the same price level.

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And thus lies the problem. From the numbers on DotLan Moons there are 231 tech moons and 197 Neo moons. Very close in terms of numbers.

(but dotlan is probably wrong, so I guess we will have to wait and see if the tech bubble bursts to see how far wrong it is)

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Originally by: xylopia

---

...

Platinum price is around 3k, Dysprosium is @ 25k, and Promethium @ 20k. Tech is still around 30k. I believe these price tags indicate we are still moving from pre-dominion to dominion. So, I think Neod price will reach roughly around mid 20k (slightly higher than 5 times of Plat), and stays there till next turn comes around.

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Originally by: Wyke Mossari

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While some of my long term capital is still in Technetium products for the long market, I've already started moving the bulk to the next big thing and detecting the unmistakable foot prints of some big money while I'm at it.

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Originally by: Wyke Mossari

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Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: Liberty Eternal

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If the introduction of Planetary infrastructure creates a mechanism capable of absorbing large amounts of capital

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Considering they stated that they wanted PI to be a thing a newbie can get soon into, I highly doubt it.

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Easy to get into, but how much trit do you think will be needed to build a space elevator?

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Originally by: xylopia

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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àI wouldn't be surprised to see Neod overshoot that price quite easily,à

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Guess what, youÆre right and IÆm wrong. My bad.

BTW, I've been such a sorry ass with 2m Neod in my hanger. Everytime ppl beat their chest with iskies from tech, I swallowed salty tears deep down in my throat. All those months I was holding myself from banging my head to the thickest part of wall for not buying up Tech; those days are going fast. ItÆs finally the time to shine some light on æem. Now that IÆm not that shabby after all.

Thanks for pointing out.

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Originally by: xylopia

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Look who's talking. A guy with a couple million tech in his pocket patting my shoulder... Hmmm...

Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Prices may settle anywhere between 25k and 45k and still get blowled right over in the coming week.

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I can't argue with that. Look how quickly it settles down, but I'm sure it will rise back again.

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Originally by: Akita T

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Originally by: Turiel Demon

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Rumours of my Tech stocks are greatly exagerated... that's Akita with the 7m units.

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Peak tech stock was a bit over 6.2 mil units (average purchase price 11.2k), have around 5.5 mil left (yikes).
Neo, that I bought only around 350k units at 3k per unit and sold at 13.4k per unit just before the patch hit.

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