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zigman123
Caldari Coffee Sipper's Club
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Posted - 2009.11.13 00:11:00 -
[1]
I normally do not follow markets much, but I just had a revelation. When Drone regions came into existence, it seriously messed with the available minerals and drastically changed the profit of mining and the price of ships. With the new Sov changes and upgrades, we not only will see upward supply levels from increased grav sites, we will also see the much easier attained increased spawn rates and quality of Drones in the Drone regions.
Prediction:
massive drop in prices of most mid and high end minerals (low ends are insurance-netted)
CCP will have to mess with drop rates, or implement a mineral sink next year.
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Baljos Arnjak
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Posted - 2009.11.13 04:58:00 -
[2]
I think you're right but it isn't going to be just the drone regions affecting the prices. The supply of high ends will increase from all 0.0 regions. I think the bigger determining factor is how much the 0.0 population will increase. If they keep it prohibitively expensive for new corps/alliances to move there, then the prices could remain relatively high (until alliances upgrade their space enough to increase supply and/or recruit mining corps). If the 0.0 population explodes, then the prices will plummet like you're saying.
I dunno either way, but I'm willing to bet that things will be all FUBAR'd for a while after the patch no matter what happens.
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Andron Blaxcor
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Posted - 2009.11.13 10:53:00 -
[3]
Hooray! Another theory! I think I've heard in a dozen different places a dozen different predictions. All are made with very plausible reasoning (including your post) but I tend to agree that the market will be fubared, partially due to supply and demand changing immediately (with rebalanced material costs), partially due to all the speculators unleashing their wildly different inventories on the market and partially due to a slower changing of play-style. I predict plenty of movement for the next two-three months. I hope to hit some of the up streaks
I think your prediction of the highs going down significantly and the lows remaining stationary is flawed due to the insurance net. Any more than a few % drop in the mineral basket and self-destructing ships will become the most profitable profession in EVE. You are right though, increased 0.0 grav/drone prevalence/quality will put a downward pressure on high-ends, but there are other factors pushing the lows down or the highs up to counter this. If anyone can accurately predict the magnitude of all these different factors and the interplay all the Dominion changes will have they could predict the movement well. Unfortunately most people only have a decent handle on a few of the relevant factors.
So, yes, I agree you part of the story.
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Cheeba Don
Fusion Enterprises Ltd Mostly Harmless
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Posted - 2009.11.13 16:49:00 -
[4]
When it comes to high end minerals, there will always be a tonne of theories floating around because there is no one fixed source for them. Dominion patch will certainly cause chanegs in the mineral market, but i disagree with the OP in that the mineral basket is very much linked - ita not just the lowends that are insurance netted.
If mass suiciding does become FOTM, minerals will bounce up. Invest if you hear countdown timers in local ;) ---------
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.11.13 20:24:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Treji on 13/11/2009 20:25:39 A lot of speculators, most with very large vested interests, are talking up mineral shortages and shortening supply currently on markets to produce panic buying etc. You can bet that these 'knowledgable' players are in fact cashing in royally.
They tell you that SiSi numbers indicate X etc...but from past expansions, SiSi numbers weren't exact and many were tweaked when expansions went live; there were often vastly different mineral and component requirements for BPO's than indicated beforehand.
CCP aren't in the business of solving a Major Moon Goop problem (Dysprosium) which was intricately related to 0.0 issues (space wars just protecting dyspro moons etc), to replace it with a new Major Moon gloop problem (Technetium). Already some players with major stocks of Technetium are pushing the price upwards, shortening supply and talking up 'bottlenecks as indicated by SiSi' at any opportunity. Supply of Technetium in past 3 months to markets has been unusually low...
Don't be fooled; CCP will make changes in the coming 2 weeks before Dominion goes live to address any potential new, overlooked, bottlenecks that deliver the same problem squarely on their laps again. Expect to see advanced material reqs changed, low end mineral numbers increased and Technetium-dependant materials reduced majorly.
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Scorpii Dracon
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Posted - 2009.11.14 10:47:00 -
[6]
Well one thing is for sure, the first couple of days after expansion, everything goes up since supply gets cut off.
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