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Dr Karsun
Gallente HUSARIA Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.24 23:09:00 -
[1]
Well, I just noticed... That maybe 2-3 weeks ago, the prices of CC were 110 or above in jita... Currently they are around 90-95... And they will drop far more soon as far as I see it. I wonder what is the point when the market will get flooded with towers from poses creating complex reactions from people who don't find it worth the trouble of coming every signle day to empty the silos for a 100-200m per month income...
What do you think? How low can the prices get? 80? 70? How much can they drop? Are all other complex reaction products also dropping so fast?
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Ruziel
Minmatar Twilight Military Industrial Complex
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Posted - 2009.11.24 23:15:00 -
[2]
This topic is better suited for the Market Discussion forum.
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Karanth
Gallente Independent Fleet THE KLINGONS
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Posted - 2009.11.24 23:24:00 -
[3]
Originally by: Dr Karsun Well, I just noticed... That maybe 2-3 weeks ago, the prices of CC were 110 or above in jita... Currently they are around 90-95... And they will drop far more soon as far as I see it. I wonder what is the point when the market will get flooded with towers from poses creating complex reactions from people who don't find it worth the trouble of coming every signle day to empty the silos for a 100-200m per month income...
What do you think? How low can the prices get? 80? 70? How much can they drop? Are all other complex reaction products also dropping so fast?
What would make them keep dropping? Why would we get flooded with towers anyway? I want to know why you think this here.
Originally by: CCP t0rfifrans
Sorry, no. You have to go into wormholes and get farmed by the new AI NPCs like everyone else...
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CCP Applebabe
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Posted - 2009.11.25 02:40:00 -
[4]
Moved from Science & Industry to Market Discussion.
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Kapila Parthalan
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Posted - 2009.11.25 02:48:00 -
[5]
Interesting. It seems that there are no blue bars on this thread, which is good if this applies to moved threads in general.
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Jacabon Mere
Caldari Quantum Horizons The Commonwealth Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.25 06:04:00 -
[6]
maybe something to do with dropping cadmium prices -----------------------
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Dr Karsun
Gallente HUSARIA Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.25 11:25:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Karanth
What would make them keep dropping? Why would we get flooded with towers anyway? I want to know why you think this here.
I guess they will keep dropping because it will work like with normal economy. When there is a quickly rising supply, people lower prices to meet the constant or slowly rising demand (the demand has no reason to rise, the ammount of T2 mods made and sold doesn't change fast).
The CC reaction is relatively the simplest complex reaction to preform. It's not hard to find 2 moons - one with cobalt and one with silicates and hydrocarbons. You put up two pos, you only have to supply cadmium which is not really a problem (lots of it on the market) and fuel (150m per month more or less). Now, this makes around 300m fuel monthly together plus cadmium - 200m monthly (not sure what are the jita prices now, but ok, lets make it 200m for a months supply). With that 500m monthly spent you produce 20.000 units of cc per hour. That gives you a total of 20.000x24x30=14.400.000 units per month. That was sold not long ago for 110 isk per one, so around 1.6b. Producers earned around 1.1b isk for the price of having to log every single day and some hauling one a week. It can be a *****, sure... But now, with the prices currently at like 89 and still dropping you earn less than 1.3b, so you get around 800m on both pos. Naturally, the market is still dropping like crazy, bulk orders prices are going down an isk or two per day if not more. Some people maintain 10pos, 12 pos at a time.
Those people will see that production of CC for 70isk per unit will be completely not worth their time... Earnning 500m on 2 pos per month while having to log in every day and haul? Not worth the trouble. Those people will sell their POS faction and normal towers and finally maybe the price will slowly rise. Currently as far as I see it, there are more and more suppliers appearing on jita market and other markets, prices dropping... How many people will think that it's worth to put up a pos while the prices are dropping like crazy? Don't know...
But yeah, the basic reason of prices dropping is a huge rise in supply before dominion (no idea why is that though, a poor moment for huge investments of around 1.5b isk).
Making custom signatures and banners - check my in-game bio for details!
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Turiel Demon
Minmatar Blue Republic
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Posted - 2009.11.25 13:52:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Dr Karsun
"(the demand has no reason to rise, the ammount of T2 mods made and sold doesn't change fast)".
There's this big patch coming, called 'Dominion', more like an expansion really, it may have some effect on the demand seeing as the number of racial armor plates - the things the carbides are needed for - required for T2 ship production is going to increase about what, 4 fold?
Hope this helps.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.11.25 13:57:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Akita T on 25/11/2009 13:57:36
Originally by: Dr Karsun When there is a quickly rising supply, people lower prices to meet the constant or slowly rising demand (the demand has no reason to rise, the ammount of T2 mods made and sold doesn't change fast).
In one week from now, the demand WILL be changing fast. As in, oh, about 3 times more carbides needed (or higher).
EDIT : Damn, ninja'd by Turiel, I need to stop going for coffee mid-quote
_
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Tirnan
Aurelius Federation Apotheosis of Virtue
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Posted - 2009.11.25 16:31:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Dr Karsun
I guess they will keep dropping because it will work like with normal economy. When there is a quickly rising supply, people lower prices to meet the constant or slowly rising demand (the demand has no reason to rise, the ammount of T2 mods made and sold doesn't change fast).
The CC reaction is relatively the simplest complex reaction to preform. It's not hard to find 2 moons - one with cobalt and one with silicates and hydrocarbons. You put up two pos, you only have to supply cadmium which is not really a problem (lots of it on the market) and fuel (150m per month more or less). Now, this makes around 300m fuel monthly together plus cadmium - 200m monthly (not sure what are the jita prices now, but ok, lets make it 200m for a months supply). With that 500m monthly spent you produce 20.000 units of cc per hour. That gives you a total of 20.000x24x30=14.400.000 units per month. That was sold not long ago for 110 isk per one, so around 1.6b. Producers earned around 1.1b isk for the price of having to log every single day and some hauling one a week. It can be a *****, sure... But now, with the prices currently at like 89 and still dropping you earn less than 1.3b, so you get around 800m on both pos. Naturally, the market is still dropping like crazy, bulk orders prices are going down an isk or two per day if not more. Some people maintain 10pos, 12 pos at a time.
Those people will see that production of CC for 70isk per unit will be completely not worth their time... Earnning 500m on 2 pos per month while having to log in every day and haul? Not worth the trouble. Those people will sell their POS faction and normal towers and finally maybe the price will slowly rise. Currently as far as I see it, there are more and more suppliers appearing on jita market and other markets, prices dropping... How many people will think that it's worth to put up a pos while the prices are dropping like crazy? Don't know...
But yeah, the basic reason of prices dropping is a huge rise in supply before dominion (no idea why is that though, a poor moment for huge investments of around 1.5b isk).
Quick question
How are you producing 20k cc per hour. From your post i understand that you are doing 2 simple and one complex reactions to get cc. Even with Caldari towers you can do 2 simple and one complex reaction on a tower. You would need at least one large and one medium tower to make 10k cc per hour.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.25 22:25:00 -
[11]
Large Caldari = 1 simple and 1 complex with next to zero cpu left
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Liberty Eternal
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Posted - 2009.11.25 22:28:00 -
[12]
It's just market volatility - last minute nerves as people adjust their stocks before the expansion and dump surplus on the market, trying to get a bit of extra liquidity. A lot of stocks are falling fast in Jita at the moment. This volatility will continue for the next few weeks.
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Dr Karsun
Gallente HUSARIA Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.25 23:07:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Tirnan
Quick question
How are you producing 20k cc per hour. From your post i understand that you are doing 2 simple and one complex reactions to get cc. Even with Caldari towers you can do 2 simple and one complex reaction on a tower. You would need at least one large and one medium tower to make 10k cc per hour.
I do 2 simple and 2 complex reactions - two towers, one simple and one complex in each.
Making custom signatures and banners - check my in-game bio for details!
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2009.11.26 00:44:00 -
[14]
Cadmium was used with alchemy to produce dyspro. This is no longer profitable because dyspro is half of what it was, so more cadmium for carbonide production- price goes down. More carbides will be necessary after Dominion (which is why all the other carbides have more than doubled in price), so it may still go up. CC started out 2x the price of other racial carbides.
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Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
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Posted - 2009.11.26 04:03:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Dr Karsun
Originally by: Tirnan
Quick question
How are you producing 20k cc per hour. From your post i understand that you are doing 2 simple and one complex reactions to get cc. Even with Caldari towers you can do 2 simple and one complex reaction on a tower. You would need at least one large and one medium tower to make 10k cc per hour.
I do 2 simple and 2 complex reactions - two towers, one simple and one complex in each.
confirmed - works like a charm but it's still 1,000 m¦ output per hour - putting the gist back into logistics |
EvilweaselSA
Weasel Enterprises Ltd GoonSwarm
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Posted - 2009.11.26 04:23:00 -
[16]
Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 26/11/2009 04:23:50
Originally by: Roemy Schneider
Originally by: Dr Karsun
Originally by: Tirnan
Quick question
How are you producing 20k cc per hour. From your post i understand that you are doing 2 simple and one complex reactions to get cc. Even with Caldari towers you can do 2 simple and one complex reaction on a tower. You would need at least one large and one medium tower to make 10k cc per hour.
I do 2 simple and 2 complex reactions - two towers, one simple and one complex in each.
confirmed - works like a charm but it's still 1,000 m¦ output per hour
it's 20,000 units
also the superefficent caldari fit sucks because it needs to be emptied literally every day
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Dr Karsun
Gallente HUSARIA Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.26 07:17:00 -
[17]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA
also the superefficent caldari fit sucks because it needs to be emptied literally every day
Well, not every day, it has 40h limit, if you empty it at around midnight one day, I can empty it two days later after I come back from university.
Originally by: EvilCheez Cadmium was used with alchemy to produce dyspro. This is no longer profitable because dyspro is half of what it was, so more cadmium for carbonide production- price goes down. More carbides will be necessary after Dominion (which is why all the other carbides have more than doubled in price), so it may still go up. CC started out 2x the price of other racial carbides.
I hope they will go up, although with prices around 90 i'd still be very happy.
Making custom signatures and banners - check my in-game bio for details!
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GiveMeISK
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Posted - 2009.11.26 10:16:00 -
[18]
As other say Dominon is verry close. for more than a month the traders have pull'et the prices up to what it they think it will after the patch. At lot of then do have the stock they need. On the other hand the BPO that uses the parts are going to change - that keeps the users from buyning. And
Cadmium alkymi is undergoing massive hit's since the demand for dysto is going down - and the last part of the proces is getting way better after patch.. i don't think a lot is doing alkymi with cadmium rigth now. The that takes the price a bit down.
But all Tech 2 parts will have some funny spikes for the next month or so. Great times for trading profit.. And risky times if you are looking for profit on reactions.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.11.29 03:24:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Dr Karsun Well, I just noticed... That maybe 2-3 weeks ago, the prices of CC were 110 or above in jita... Currently they are around 90-95... And they will drop far more soon as far as I see it. I wonder what is the point when the market will get flooded with towers from poses creating complex reactions from people who don't find it worth the trouble of coming every signle day to empty the silos for a 100-200m per month income...
What do you think? How low can the prices get? 80? 70? How much can they drop? Are all other complex reaction products also dropping so fast?
Historically people have produced carbides for as little as 50 isk/unit.
Gallente Fit towers IMO are the best, as you can empty them every 8-10 days instead of once a day, which means that you can effectively run 10x as many of them for the same 'effort'. Margins can be a little lower, but the lack of effort required more than makes up for it.
I think they are being held up on speculation demand at the moment, it's difficult to say if they will rise or drop after the patch as often people speculating about a patch create a larger disturbance than actual patches.
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Roemy Schneider
Vanishing Point.
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Posted - 2009.11.29 10:26:00 -
[20]
Originally by: EvilweaselSA Edited by: EvilweaselSA on 26/11/2009 04:23:50
Originally by: Roemy Schneider
Originally by: Dr Karsun I do 2 simple and 2 complex reactions - two towers, one simple and one complex in each.
confirmed - works like a charm but it's still 1,000 m¦ output per hour
it's 20,000 units
also the superefficent caldari fit sucks because it needs to be emptied literally every day
humm? i/we only have to visit every <80h - putting the gist back into logistics |
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Dr Karsun
Gallente HUSARIA Curatores Veritatis Alliance
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Posted - 2009.11.29 21:27:00 -
[21]
And now CC will only take 0.01, not 0.05 space... So caldari tower owners will visit their pos once a week... (instead of a bit less than 2 days it'll be 5x the time, so around a week easily). And Gallente tower owners once every... month... Not to take the produced stuff out, but to put the fuel in...
Made me laugh when I read the patch notes :) WIN!
Making custom signatures and banners - check my in-game bio for details!
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Tesal
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Posted - 2009.11.29 21:34:00 -
[22]
Anyone know if the fuel bonus is still there for Sov?
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Kapila Parthalan
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Posted - 2009.11.29 22:38:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Tesal Anyone know if the fuel bonus is still there for Sov?
Yes, it is.
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