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Agent Known
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Posted - 2009.12.02 01:26:00 -
[1]
Looks like someone decided to go with all-out market manipulation...hulk prices skyrocketed to over 200 million in one day, with the new sell orders being put up just a couple hours ago. Similar reports are being heard in other regions.
Price manipulation? Or is Hulkageddon really that effective? On another note, I also have an annoying sig.
inaftertimeflux |
Julian Koll
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Posted - 2009.12.02 01:28:00 -
[2]
all your hulk are belong to us!
srsly, buy hulks.
more srsly, lame attempt of manipulation
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Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
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Posted - 2009.12.02 01:33:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Frenden Dax on 02/12/2009 01:33:22
Originally by: Julian Koll all your hulk are belong to us!
srsly, buy hulks.
more srsly, lame attempt of manipulation
Actually it's not manipulation. I'm not sure if they're at 200m yet in Jita (haven't checked in the last 15 minutes) but for about a week now they've been rising, and by today they were at 135m or so.
EDIT: Obviously the 135m price is manipulation. I don't know if the thread is though.
Originally by: Karanth Or, in other words, random people can't usurp rights from government because they are insane/bitter/vengeful/made of potato salad.
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Agent Known
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Posted - 2009.12.02 01:34:00 -
[4]
Originally by: Frenden Dax Edited by: Frenden Dax on 02/12/2009 01:33:22
Originally by: Julian Koll all your hulk are belong to us!
srsly, buy hulks.
more srsly, lame attempt of manipulation
Actually it's not manipulation. I'm not sure if they're at 200m yet in Jita (haven't checked in the last 15 minutes) but for about a week now they've been rising, and by today they were at 135m or so.
EDIT: Obviously the 135m price is manipulation. I don't know if the thread is though.
Take a look at the sell orders. They were placed less than 2 hours ago...is that a sign? On another note, I also have an annoying sig.
inaftertimeflux |
info specialist
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Posted - 2009.12.02 03:52:00 -
[5]
This is old news.
Take a look at the new build requirements on exhumers.
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Alex555
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Posted - 2009.12.02 08:19:00 -
[6]
hulks will double in price in a near future
noone can stop this from happening
due to changing requirements for construction there will be a natural shortage for specific components and probably specific advanced materials. Hence there will be a shortage in finished hulks.
I havent adjusted my numbers yet, but i am pretty sure that current price, at least morning jita price at 126 is not the end of story.
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Treji
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Posted - 2009.12.02 09:30:00 -
[7]
Run some numbers on the BUILD cost for a BPO hulk (which, at current prices which will probably increase, is about 125 mil a ship), then factor in that invented BPC are about 45% more expensive to build....then buy Hulks at 126 mil from market!
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Krans Hopeson
Apache Corp
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Posted - 2009.12.02 14:11:00 -
[8]
Do you think the higher cost of Hulks will place upward pressure on mineral prices? -- "The only stupid question is the one you don't ask." |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2009.12.02 17:21:00 -
[9]
Originally by: Krans Hopeson Do you think the higher cost of Hulks will place upward pressure on mineral prices?
I don't think so, Hulk death doesn't happen often. Since you can mine a Hulk cost in the space of a day I don't see the minerals going up in price because of that.
Amarr for Life |
Manny theMiner
Smoking Hillbillys
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Posted - 2009.12.02 21:20:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Manny theMiner on 02/12/2009 21:20:19
Originally by: Treji Run some numbers on the BUILD cost for a BPO hulk (which, at current prices which will probably increase, is about 125 mil a ship)
The current build costs are based upon ridiculously high prices of the day... prices driven up solely by Dominion speculation. Do people really think that 1700 POSs instantly stopped mining and all reserves / market orders were instantly filled in one day?
Yes, long term prices will be a higher than they were in the past (fallout from off-lining all the superfluous mining/rxn POSs that were previously needed for Sov). but these insane prices of the day will correct themselves in 6...5...4...3...
Please resize your signature to the maximum allowed of 400 x 120 pixels with a maximum file size of 24000 bytes. Navigator |
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Alex555
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Posted - 2009.12.02 21:31:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Alex555 on 02/12/2009 21:33:01
the thing not only in speculative prices, I would say the major factor is an increased demand for specific components and overall increase in slots needed to produce the same amount of hulks monthly. As i have already posted in Science and Industry, one needs 2 times more slots fro components to produce the same amount of hulks. And this is the most important thing. Crazy prices atm is just an additional thing wich makes the picture even more ugly
in simple words - there will be natural shortage of hulks due to the natural lag when people will try to catch with slots. and knowing that they simply need to have 2 times more slots, i would estimate shortage as 50% in the first month and then probably decreasing but not really sharp
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Helicity Boson
Amarr The Python Cartel.
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Posted - 2009.12.02 21:45:00 -
[12]
I *swear* I had nothing to do with this AT ALL.
And I'm being honest here...
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.12.03 06:01:00 -
[13]
First my thought was that some price rise was genuine, then the rest was speculation, however my numbers now show that building from bought components using a BPO the build cost is 146m ! Building from advanced materials the build cost is 102m, again using a BPO ! Build cost from a BPO pre-patch was about 60m I think. Invented Hulks thus pushed the final sale price up to around 90m.
It's fairly clear that there were quite a few people holding onto advanced material supply, the price spiked after the patch and then everyone dumped their stockpiles, but they weren't enough and the speculation / new demand has pushed up the price. I think we are looking at at least 120-130m prices for hulks for the next month while people bring on the extra reactors needed to supply the market with the new demand for low end advanced materials. Myself my usage across various ships of carbides jumped from about 500k / month to almost 7 million units per month, clearly the supply has a long way to catch up to this. Particularly the microprocessors are a problem since unlike the armor plates they didn't get a reduction in build time, but their usage has increased pretty spectacularly.
I don't think we will see hulk prices where they were for quite a long time due to this. Definitely 200m is well overheated though, since you could get an invented BPC buy all the components and still make a very good profit on that.
Quote:
The current build costs are based upon ridiculously high prices of the day... prices driven up solely by Dominion speculation. Do people really think that 1700 POSs instantly stopped mining and all reserves / market orders were instantly filled in one day?
Build costs immediately pre-dominion were way lower than they are now. Due to the new distribution of advanced components required, it's unlikely that the high end materials actually 'can' drop enough to make up for the rise in lower end materials. There are plenty of moons out there to be mined but it is going to take quite some time for the many many thousand that are now additionally needed to be setup. Speculation is a double edged sword, the last patch speculation drove prices well up and they crashed immediately following the patch, in this case I think many people were very wary, and so the speculation didn't drive prices up enough, the sudden realisation in the market that there is a very distinct lack of supply is now causing panic buying.
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Akita T
Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2009.12.03 06:44:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Lord Fitz Particularly the microprocessors are a problem since unlike the armor plates they didn't get a reduction in build time, but their usage has increased pretty spectacularly.
Actually... their base build time WAS reduced from 2 minutes 30 seconds to 1 minute 15 seconds - so it was cut exactly in half. Not quite the heavy build time reduction armor plates received, but still, a significant reduction nevertheless, half the time it used to be before.
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Lord Fitz
Project Amargosa
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Posted - 2009.12.03 07:29:00 -
[15]
Edited by: Lord Fitz on 03/12/2009 07:29:09
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Lord Fitz Particularly the microprocessors are a problem since unlike the armor plates they didn't get a reduction in build time, but their usage has increased pretty spectacularly.
Actually... their base build time WAS reduced from 2 minutes 30 seconds to 1 minute 15 seconds - so it was cut exactly in half. Not quite the heavy build time reduction armor plates received, but still, a significant reduction nevertheless, half the time it used to be before.
Ah, didn't check, just put on some to build alongside armor plates and the difference between the two was exceptionally noticeable, considering my usage of them is about to increase probably 10x but only a halving of build time.... hmm.. At least the BPOs are cheap and quick to research, I think more parallelism is in order.
The build time isn't really going to make the biggest difference long term, a doubling of the build time probably only makes 5-10% difference to the price at most. It's really the extra effort required at the reaction stage that will cause any sustained increase, as people/hours are more valuable than slot/hours. Though the decrease in carbide size is nice, I just moved 11million units of them that I'd had sitting around for the better part of 2 years due to the low prices and didn't even fill half a freighter.
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