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SMANE 5b Bond (Sorry no haiku)

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Marcus Baltar	Posted - 2010.01.02 13:22:00 - [31] Originally by: Marcus Baltar I would like to reserve 5 (500,000,000 ISK) Class C bonds, please. Please confirm when, and to whom I should send the ISK (which will be done when I have consumed less "festive" spirit(s)). Thanks. 500,000,000 ISK sent 2010.01.02 13:20 to Dethmourne Silvermane. Thanks. --
siNuskuRve	Posted - 2010.01.02 18:33:00 - [32] I will take the last two bonds, converted to Class C please. I would take at least another three, if you were planning on extending the offering... Sending 200 million isk to Dethmourne now! Thanks! Sin
Rolland Gundar	Posted - 2010.01.02 21:58:00 - [33] You can put me down for 5 class Bs if you have space still. I can make payment today.
Taram Caldar Noir. Noir. Mercenary Group	Posted - 2010.01.02 22:37:00 - [34] Confirming I still would like 5 Class B but am awaiting VV's updated Audit before sending Isk. Want a sig made? Contact me in game. Click my sig to see samples
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.01.03 02:50:00 - [35] Rolland, I apologize - all bonds are currently out. I don't wish to add additional bonds at this time as I don't have a business model that I feel expands greatly beyond the point of the isk already reserved. I do appreciate your interest however. Also, I am looking forward to VV's update as much as you are Taram :) --------------------------------- Ship Purchase Program Killmail Service discontinued by request.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Brutor tribe	Posted - 2010.01.03 22:42:00 - [36] Audit report for this business proposal This is Vaerah Vahroka's analysis as of 2010-01-03 19:20 EvE Time. Tools used EvEMon jEveAssets EMMA EvEMeep EvE Asset Manager Forewords Dethmourne Silvermane is a former 0.0 player now dealing with high sec trading and general business operations. Due to a series of factors (purchase of a missioning ship, misadventures in 0.0 sec, loans) he finds himself low on liquidity, exactly in the moment he'd found out some expansion perspectives. As such he is seeking for public funding both to refinance current debt and to overcome the partial returns erosion. This erosion is due to his current expansion being based on borrowed and limited funds. Since not all the readers are interested in a fully featured study, a short version of the audit has been provided. Short version Considerations The Investee proposes a series of 3 bond solutions with low to middle interest, aimed at raising capital to support an expansion of his trading and "insurance fraud" activities. The Investee, basing on his former bond outcome and procedures, decided not to provide collateral for this venture. The Investee, understandably, has declined on divulging the details about his trading strategy. Due to the trading strategy, the Investee does not need to move goods around, reducing the risk of loss. Red Flag: the Investee provides for no collateral. Yellow flag: part of the business strategy involves insurance fraud, a game mechanic that could change or have its effects changed with no prior notice and any time. In that case a pessimistic scenario will be engaged, where Dethmourne has to earn enough income to pay for interests for over a year. Yellow flag: The above reason also forbids further continuing of the "mocked up killmail" service, defined as a "small but non-negligible income service". Cautionary / yellow flag: an exit strategy has been provided, but the exact terms of the liquidation (including values and other concurrent liabilities treatment) are vague at best. Moreover neither the exit strategy executor may prove his ability or will to perform what's needed (which is quite "normal"), nor Ji Sama confirmed his factual agreement to the deal. Cautionary / yellow flag (technically yellow, in practice it's not a real obstacle): Dethmourne's alt is still 20 days away from being able to perform the insurance fraud operations. Dethmourne's main is able to do that, now in a way that won't hurt his corporation's killboard. Green flag: the Auditor has reviewed the investee's skills and current assets. They look in line to the claims and compatible with the trading profession. Green flag: the Investee arranged for an audit. Green flag: the Investee submitted himself to answer to a series of questions. Green flag: the Investee does not own a freighter but due to his business strategy, he does not need to move anything, so danger of loss to suicide ganks is low. Green flag: the Investee is quite experienced at PvP and thus even in case he'd have to move stuff, he'd have the basics on how to survive. Green flag: the Investee proved to be able and keep an above 3-4B NAV in the last months. The request is for a very manageable amount compared to that. Green flag: at the (unannounced) moment of assets API data download, Dethmourne has been found with a respectable number of unfitted battleships and a rather large number of battleships BPCs. During the audit the amount of battleships decreased, the wallet increased. Conclusions Due to lack of collateral, current liabilities, the unpredictable possibility of insurance mechanics changes and the profession involved, the Auditor classifies this investment as high risk regarding bonds of A and B type and very high risk for bonds of C type. Notice: high or very high risk does not necessarily mean bad business. (To be continued...) - Auditing and consulting Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Brutor tribe	Posted - 2010.01.03 22:46:00 - [37] In particular, the existance of current liabilities puts at greater danger the ability and priority to recover money in case something goes bad. As for the single options, bonds option A looks like quite not really a best deal due to the very low rate of interest (really only good for those who can't live without zero day call option). Option B is probably where the proposed interest meets the current market value due to the monthly payment and call option. Option C could possibly harm Dethmourne income in case insurance fraud would get negatively changed. For those trusting the Investee ability, though, it's like a nice 7% "passive savings bank account" and this could explain the popularity of the option. The Investee seems competent (skills wise and player wise) enough to deliver on his statements. This exclusively regards Dethmourne and the trading alt (skills have been covered in the past audit already), while the new alt has currently no useful skill for the task yet. The Auditor cannot grant about the alt future. No fundamental flaw has been found in his (or his alts) past recorded deaths and forum posts. He sold two characters in the past, though they are not involved with trading. Basically, the Investee looks like with the ability to successfully honor the bond. Notice how an audit can only evaluate the ability or potential of an Investee to succesfully honor a bond. The Auditor suggest the Investors NOT to invest their full capital on this venture but to offer what they could eventually afford to lose, expecially on option C. The most realistic risk of defaults are, in decreasing order of probability: insurance fraud being changed for Dethmourne's worse, Investee scamming, default with no collateral to back anything up. Full version Generalities Main trading character for this proposal are Dethmourne Silvermane's trading and suicide battleships alts, both located on a dedicated accounts. The Investee is training the battleship alt at the moment of this writing. The alt would take about 20 days before being able to perform his task. He basically got his main trading alt and a PvE / PvP character with trading skills (some to level IV) and a new alt only used to blow ships. The Investee only got those three characters on three accounts, no easily spotted track of dubious other alts has been found. The main trading character is an August 2009 one and has the required trading skills, for a total of about 6.2M SP. The character is heavily tuned for trading (all the current skills at least to level IV or V) and contracting. He got little non merchantile skills except for a quite strong training in T1 production and refining. The main character stated to be the one performing the insurance operations till the dedicated alt is ready is Dethmourne Silvermane. He is a Jan 2008 character, with 32.3M SP. As stated in the previous audit, he is an hybrid who got good ship command skills for multiple races, some trading, some missioning, some mining, some industry, good leadership, some science and exploration. In particular he got: - Amarr Battleships to III - Caldari Battleships to III - Gallente Battleships to IV At the moment he's training for Minmatar ships, but he's not ready for them yet. They are not really the best deal for insurance fraud anyway, due to they tendency to have higher prices. The character posted several times on the forums, both with main and alts, mostly about his former investments (One Stop Mining Shop, Titans 4 U) and general MD discussions. The character got standings with several Empire corporations. The last character, Elune, is a freshly made character with 359k SP, currently being trained to take advantage of the most profitable Battleship's race. (To be continued...) - Auditing and consulting Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Brutor tribe	Posted - 2010.01.03 22:50:00 - [38] Involvement in other business The Investee invested and then backed off Bad Bobby's Titans 4 U, he also participated and concluded in a bond for One Stop Mining Shop. The Investee owes 2B at 0% interest to one investor and 1B at 5% (unlimited duration) to previous ventures. Business Plan Analysis The Investee sent the Auditor some informations about how and how much he should make with his activities. Expecially for C type bonds, there are two possible scenarios to analyze: 1) Nothing changes in the current insurance mechanics. In this case, with the given numbers, the interests would be easily paid back for all the solutions with a rather low effort. 2) Insurance mechanics change for the worse (for those in "insurance fraud"). a) This might happen because insurance is suppressed. This is very unlikely as insurance is a very important foundation of the game, please refer to past Akita T's and my posts for full details. b) Insurance payouts could be made less profitable, but this is unlikely as well because this would render insurance obsolete and begin a rather severe fall in mineral and ship prices, with repercussions on BPO and BPC markets as well. At the same time it would cause what's stated at point c). It's still possible that the venture will turn less profitable anyway, because of more and more pilots jumping on the "insurance fraud wagon". c) Insurance payouts could be revoked for self destruction (or even suicide ganking). This is another possible scenario but the Auditor feels it is not going to happen because insurance exists to expel the actual excess minerals off the game not (just) to control money consequences. If in any instance the insurance would cease to be appetible or widely used, its main objective of expelling minerals off the game would fail, with great negative consequences for the game economy. d) The game could get an undisclosed, new mechanic to push ship prices up or to compound insurance so that it becomes possible to reduce its payout in case of suicide ganking or self destruction. This would probably not happen for the next 6 months. In this case the pregress income should cover a year of C type bonds and the venture could probably close down but in the positive. e) CCP decides that RMT has been disrupted enough and turns asteroids daily respawn off again, with no prior notice. This is the most dangerous scenario, because with the increased price of exhumers (read: lower numbers of them enter the game to refill their natural turnover), a possible rekindling of RMT, increased player base and now rarer asteroids, the insurance fraud would quickly lose viability, possibly to a worse status of pre-"Holy Rage" times. In this case, C type bonds are at risk of eating a lot of revenue. The factors above push the Auditor into classifying this business as high risk for A and B type bonds, very high risk for C type bonds. Collateral and exit strategy There is no collateral offered for this venture. In case of RL impediment causing a delay in dividends for 2 (two) months past the due maturity day, an appointed third party (Ji Sama) would liquidate assets and try recovering the possible. The exact terms of the course of action are left to the decisions of the Third Party. The Auditor will not take part in any refund, except (if asked) to check the API for Investors payment. Net Asset Value and other balance considerations EMMA had some issues at calculating all the values, the EvE API does not support contracts nor faction items, so a partly manual plus jEveAssets, EMMA and WalletAware estimation has been used. Results should be conservative and accurate to below 10% error. Important notice: this NAV components are affected with very significant fluctuations between assets and wallet. In 2 hours wallet would go from 750M to 1.5B and then to 2.5B as ships were blown up. (To be continued...) - Auditing and consulting Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Brutor tribe	Posted - 2010.01.03 22:52:00 - [39] Previous investment NAV The estimated net worth of all liabilities, solid & liquid assets is about 3.58B. The transactions are made by both of the characters. Assets across all of the characters and corporations are estimated to be worth 3.06B. The Auditor did not include some minor ammo BPOs. Assets and balance Balance Wallet balance: 472M Market sell-orders: 400M (this value is skipped in the NAV since they are included in the assets evaluation below). Market escrow: 7.7M (during the weeks it floated up to 700M, average 400M) Contracts: 43M Investments: 0M Total: 522.7M Assets POS: 0M Fleet / ships: 998M (unfitted) Modules: 1.46B Misc. solid assets; minerals, salvage, ice and trade goods etc.: 48M Blueprint copies and originals: 28M Other: About 526M Ordered assets under construction: 0M Total: 3.06B --------------------------------------- Estimated grand total: 3.58 Billion ISK Current NAV The estimated net worth of all liabilities, solid & liquid assets is about 5.71B. The transactions are made by the two elder characters. Assets across all of the characters and corporations are estimated to be worth 4.02B. Assets and balance Balance Wallet balance: 1.5B Market sell-orders: 1.5B (this value is skipped in the balance since they are included in the assets evaluation below). Market escrow: 60M Contracts: 130M Investments: 0M Total: 1.69B Assets POS: 0M Fleet / ships: 3.2B (unfitted) Modules: 471M Misc. solid assets; minerals, salvage, ice and trade goods etc.: 13M Blueprint copies and originals: 196M Other: About 140M Ordered assets under construction: 0M Total: 4.02B --------------------------------------- Estimated grand total: 5.71 Billion ISK Business impressions The business consists of two operations: blowing ships for insurance refund and trading. The business, as long as the Investee keeps working like in the recent past, should be amply be able to repay the promised interests, as long as nothing changes in insurance mechanics nor in asteroids respawn times. In case insurance stops being viable, Dethmourne will have to resort with exclusive trading. In that case the last bond figures have to be taken, as the Investee stopped trading in the mean time due to RL impediments. This would make Dethmourne earn about 4% for himself over the C type bonds. Risks The largest risks of failure, in decreasing order, involve: insurance fraud being changed for Dethmourne's worse, Investee scamming, default with no collateral to back anything up. Considerations Please refer to the audit's short version for general considerations about the Investee. Conclusions Please refer to the audit's short version for the conclusions about the Investee. - Auditing and consulting Before asking for investors, please read http://tinyurl.com/n5ys4h and http://tinyurl.com/lrg4oz
Taram Caldar Noir. Noir. Mercenary Group	Posted - 2010.01.03 23:06:00 - [40] Due to some RL issues that have arisen I will be unable to invest in this bond as liquid isk has had to be earmarked for GTC's this quarter. Sorry for inconvenience. Want a sig made? Contact me in game. Click my sig to see samples

siNuskuRve	Posted - 2010.01.03 23:10:00 - [41] Pouncing on Taram's withdrawal, and as per my original post, I'd take at least another three bonds if there is noone ahead of me in the queue... And great audit VV. Thanks, Sin
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.01.04 04:56:00 - [42] 3 bonds allocated to sinuskurve. I have contacted Rolland for the option on the remainder; then an investor who contacted me ingame. Should neither of them be interested, 2 more bonds will be available. --------------------------------- Ship Purchase Program Killmail Service discontinued by request.
Simmonite Caldari	Posted - 2010.01.04 06:58:00 - [43] Edited by: Simmonite on 04/01/2010 06:59:21 Putting my name down for 1 bond incase 1 of thoes comes free. :) I wish you luck with the Bond. [edit:bad spelling]
Magnu Stormhawk Stormhawk Enterprises	Posted - 2010.01.04 09:34:00 - [44] ISK sent.
Kapila Parthalan	Posted - 2010.01.06 02:05:00 - [45] Transferred 500M ISK to Dethmourne Silvermane.
Simmonite Caldari	Posted - 2010.01.06 07:32:00 - [46] Confirming Isk sent for 2 Class B bonds. :)
Sugar Jugs Juggalicious	Posted - 2010.01.28 05:56:00 - [47] Sorry mate, was away on holidays, just read your mail. If you need further financing, feel free to hit me up in game by evemail is best (I afk a lot). Also, check your mail, I'll send ya some info if you're still doing BS fraud (sounds like you are a bit). Same rate as previous is fine. :)
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.01.31 17:42:00 - [48] February interest paid. --------------------------------- Ship Purchase Program Killmail Service discontinued by request.
Erialor Godsent Gallente Federal Navy Support Divison	Posted - 2010.01.31 17:50:00 - [49] Recieved - thanks ;) --
Magnu Stormhawk Stormhawk Enterprises	Posted - 2010.01.31 19:48:00 - [50] Confirming interest recieved, with thanks

Simmonite Caldari Black Star Alliance	Posted - 2010.01.31 22:54:00 - [51] Posting payments recieved also Thanks :)
Kapila Parthalan	Posted - 2010.02.05 20:14:00 - [52] Confirming receipt of payment #1 of 7% on 2009.01.31 for my Class C Bonds.
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.02.17 06:21:00 - [53] Paid back a few principals early. Will continue to pay principal back as sell orders empty out. --------------------------------- Regarding high-sec mining: Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
Breaker77 Gallente Reclamation Industries	Posted - 2010.02.17 15:35:00 - [54] Confirming receipt of 100 mil plus 6% interest for 1 class B bond.
InUrJita CheckinUrPrice	Posted - 2010.02.17 17:49:00 - [55] Paid out with interest. Thanks Deth, good luck with future offerings!
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.02.22 06:46:00 - [56] 2 B bonds belonging to spice route repaid. 2nd post updated to reflect as such. --------------------------------- Regarding high-sec mining: Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
Dethmourne Silvermane Gallente SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.02.27 10:40:00 - [57] interest sent. more principal repaid. --------------------------------- Regarding high-sec mining: Originally by: AmarrettoDiAmarr 3-4 million ISK/hr is perhaps .15 0r .20 US$/hr; not quite prison wages and you are around less honest people.
Erialor Godsent Gallente Federal Navy Support Divison	Posted - 2010.02.27 10:41:00 - [58] Interest recieved - thanks :) --
Simmonite Caldari Black Star Alliance	Posted - 2010.02.28 09:23:00 - [59] Interest and repayment recieved :)
Kapila Parthalan	Posted - 2010.03.01 02:21:00 - [60] Confirming receipt of payment #2 of 7% on 2009.02.27 for my Class C Bonds.



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