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Mara Rinn	Posted - 2010.03.11 04:10:00 - [1] Can anyone provide links to discussions about the mineral basket model of the EVE economy? Is there any discussion of models which might predict the changes in prices of minerals in the basket as supply or demand changes? My EVE-search-fu is failing me =( [Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES]
LarcatOfRens	Posted - 2010.03.11 04:58:00 - [2] The truth is, the basket doesn't stay at a consistent value over time. It has huge variation. The theory goes that based on the over all basket of minerals needed for ship/mod construction, the basket as a whole will maintain a consistent value because insurance acts as a hard floor. The value of the basket going above this floor makes sense --- under supply of minerals generally for production. The basket should never go below the hard floor put in place by insurance, because as soon as that happens insurance fraud becomes profitable. Say trit is hugely over supplied -- whatever mineral is acting as the bottleneck for battleship production will soar in value as people ramp up production for fraud, until the overall basket valuation makes fraud non profitable again. Thats the theory at least. Historic data doesn't bear out quite so nicely.
Mara Rinn	Posted - 2010.03.11 05:51:00 - [3] Originally by: LarcatOfRens Thats the theory at least. Historic data doesn't bear out quite so nicely. It quite neatly explains the current price of Pyerite, given the plummeting price of tritanium and high-ends due to the veldspar respawn buff and nullsec mining buff respectively :) Other things do affect the prices of minerals, such as huge capital losses pumping the value of tritanium up - classic economics theory about price increasing with demand right there. Which historical fluctuations do you believe falsify the mineral basket theory? [Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES]
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.03.11 10:48:00 - [4] It's not a hard floor, but a soft, bouncy floor, made out of the sweat of manufacturers churning out much more ships (preferably tier 3 BSs) than actually needed and those of the people that can be bothered to do the kaboominating. _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Mara Rinn	Posted - 2010.03.11 13:22:00 - [5] Originally by: Akita T It's not a hard floor, but a soft, bouncy floor Yes, soft and bouncy since in order to "force" the price up some folks have to be buying the ultra-cheap minerals, converting them into spaceships, insuring them and blowing them up. I suppose the model for a "mineral basket floor price" would rely on factors such as near-perfect ME for all available ships, insurance price for the same, with a "pressure" on the mineral price based on how many of the most interesting ship can be manufactured by the available manufacturing slots. The mineral basket floor price could easily be overcome by simply dumping far too many minerals on the market for the interested parties to be manufacturing ships out of them. I'm guessing the downward pressure on prices would be a function of 0.01 ISK wars between producers, moderated by the number of sales that actually happen. At some point on the way down, a particular ship becomes an attractive insurance fraud target, which leads to higher demand for the other minerals in the basket. But how does one model it in order to predict the impact of eg: an oversupply of Arkonor from nullsec alliances trying to rapidly develop their industrial index? [Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES]
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.03.11 13:56:00 - [6] Originally by: Mara Rinn But how does one model it in order to predict the impact of eg: an oversupply of Arkonor from nullsec alliances trying to rapidly develop their industrial index? Well, the lower the "basket" goes, the less soft the bottom becomes, and at a certain point it's almost as good as a hard bottom... just not at 70% of baseprice (that's pretty much where mineral SELL orders are now), but at 66% (that's more or less where we are now with mineral BUY orders) or at worst at around 60% (seriously, who WOULDN'T instantly buy a tier 3 BS if they could make around 15 mil per self-destruct). The whole story is almost exactly the same as in theory, but instead of 70% you use a slightly lower "bottom". Now, the thing is, highend mineral prices will be those most likely to go down (the higher the baseprice the more likely the price drop), because they are easiest to move around (in terms of percentage added value due to hauling), therefore the likeliest candidates to go up are always those near the low-end spectrum. Recently, tritanium experienced a major spike in supply (due to the changed respawn mechanics for Veldspar, and only Veldspar) while most highends also had a significant supply spike (due to the new industrial index mechanics), so the next "most likely candidate for going up in price" was pyerite... and up it went. _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
cosmoray Bella Vista Holdings Corp	Posted - 2010.03.11 17:12:00 - [7] The floor is soft and can move about a lot, but reacts quickly to come up. Over the past 3 years the best time was October/November/December 2009 as people were waiting to see the effects of Dominion. The mineral basket was sitting at 102-106 (out of 115.5 which is the zero profit point for a Rokh). You know things are good when every build slot you can run is making 3M/hr, especially when you can run 66 at a time.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.03.11 17:35:00 - [8] Mineral prices 3 years ago... Providing content.. On the Outpost thread I said I had a sheet I created Years ago to calculate the cost of an outpost.. The document was created 2-24-2007 and was last saved 3-1-2007. The percentage after the price is the price now compared to then. Tritanium - 2.98 - 98.66% Pyerite - 8.66 - 86.72% Mexallon - 24.03 - 129.84% Isogen - 214.96 - 25.96% Nocxium - 745.19 - 11.12% Zydrine - 2933.84 - 38.48% Megacyte - 4316.14 - 49.25% What is interesting is Pyerite was more expensive 3 years ago, what happened between then and now apart from a few patches is "Drone Region", we all know that is why Nocxium crashed (66% of it comes from there or something) but why Isogen?.. Although that is a oddly high price for Isogen. Trit was about the same, which is about right because this was also BEFORE removal of shuttles from NPCs. So at that time Trit had that magical 3.6ISK a unit cap. I would say the effects of the shuttles has been long removed. Zydrine, Megacyte sure, as alliances get farmers those minerals are going to be cheap but I expect it to jet upward without a moments notice. Amarr for Life
cosmoray Bella Vista Holdings Corp	Posted - 2010.03.11 18:50:00 - [9] Originally by: SencneS Mineral prices 3 years ago... Providing content.. On the Outpost thread I said I had a sheet I created Years ago to calculate the cost of an outpost.. The document was created 2-24-2007 and was last saved 3-1-2007. The percentage after the price is the price now compared to then. Tritanium - 2.98 - 98.66% Pyerite - 8.66 - 86.72% Mexallon - 24.03 - 129.84% Isogen - 214.96 - 25.96% Nocxium - 745.19 - 11.12% Zydrine - 2933.84 - 38.48% Megacyte - 4316.14 - 49.25% What is interesting is Pyerite was more expensive 3 years ago, what happened between then and now apart from a few patches is "Drone Region", we all know that is why Nocxium crashed (66% of it comes from there or something) but why Isogen?.. Although that is a oddly high price for Isogen. Trit was about the same, which is about right because this was also BEFORE removal of shuttles from NPCs. So at that time Trit had that magical 3.6ISK a unit cap. I would say the effects of the shuttles has been long removed. Zydrine, Megacyte sure, as alliances get farmers those minerals are going to be cheap but I expect it to jet upward without a moments notice. At those prices mineral basket is 198. At the time I bet there was plenty of stupid builders allowing mass reprocessing of ships.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2010.03.11 20:19:00 - [10] Originally by: cosmoray At those prices mineral basket is 198. At the time I bet there was plenty of stupid builders allowing mass reprocessing of ships. There were no Rokhs 3 years ago so your 198 is meaningless. At those prices the melt for a Megathron was 124.4m which sounds about right to me. I can remember buying cheap BPCs around this time and saving 10mil on a build (and I went through a lot of them) so the idea of people rich enough to have BS BPOs and dumb enough to sell below production cost doesn't fly. Maybe you were dumb enough, but I wouldn't generalize from that.
Dzil Alt Caldari StrwBerry Pancakes	Posted - 2010.03.11 21:04:00 - [11] Originally by: cosmoray At those prices mineral basket is 198. At the time I bet there was plenty of stupid builders allowing mass reprocessing of ships. I'm a little fuzzy on the basket. I get the general concept is that a combination of minerals --> Battleship --> insurance fraud, but are the various different ship options for junking minerals really so close together than we can arrive at any one specific combination and say that's the most efficient way to convert to isk, and therefore defines the basket?
cosmoray Bella Vista Holdings Corp	Posted - 2010.03.11 21:30:00 - [12] Originally by: Dzil Alt Originally by: cosmoray At those prices mineral basket is 198. At the time I bet there was plenty of stupid builders allowing mass reprocessing of ships. I'm a little fuzzy on the basket. I get the general concept is that a combination of minerals --> Battleship --> insurance fraud, but are the various different ship options for junking minerals really so close together than we can arrive at any one specific combination and say that's the most efficient way to convert to isk, and therefore defines the basket? The mineral basket is fairly equivalent percentage over all ships. i.e if it is 10% lower for a Rokh it will be 10% lower for a stabber. It is more effective using Tier 3 battleships as each percentage point equals more ISK.
Block Ukx Forge Laboratories	Posted - 2010.03.12 01:00:00 - [13] Originally by: LarcatOfRens The theory goes that based on the over all basket of minerals needed for ship/mod construction, the basket as a whole will maintain a consistent value because insurance acts as a hard floor. The value of the basket going above this floor makes sense --- under supply of minerals generally for production. The basket should never go below the hard floor put in place by insurance, because as soon as that happens insurance fraud becomes profitable. Say trit is hugely over supplied -- whatever mineral is acting as the bottleneck for battleship production will soar in value as people ramp up production for fraud, until the overall basket valuation makes fraud non profitable again. This is a big myth. There is no insurance fraud, only an Insurance Exchange Rate (IER). Being a rate, EIR alone cannot prevent the market prices from collapsing. BSAC Mineral Market Manipulation (MinMa) Information Desk
Mara Rinn	Posted - 2010.03.12 06:31:00 - [14] Originally by: Akita T Well, the lower the "basket" goes, the less soft the bottom becomes, and at a certain point it's almost as good as a hard bottom... just not at 70% of baseprice (that's pretty much where mineral SELL orders are now), but at 66% (that's more or less where we are now with mineral BUY orders) or at worst at around 60% (seriously, who WOULDN'T instantly buy a tier 3 BS if they could make around 15 mil per self-destruct). Yup, that's the mechanism which I would describe as "positive price pressure" - the cheap stuff is going to disappear quickly because people will be buying them to self destruct as quickly as possible. That pressure will disappear when the cost of the ship is equal to the income from insurance "exchange" (insurance payout - insurance premium). Since it costs about 30 seconds plus undock time plus self destruct time (is it two minutes?) plus docking time, we could probably model the price pressure of IER in terms of ISK/hr based on the IER profit over the minimum turnaround time. At the very least there's another column on the ship manufacturing chart that folks will need to consider (if they aren't already). [Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES]
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.03.12 07:21:00 - [15] Edited by: Akita T on 12/03/2010 07:21:37 There are faster ways to do it than the 2 minute-delay self-destruct option. You could, for instance, aggro the sentry guns of the station, and they'll take you out faster than the self-destruct. Alternatively, you could just use a POS of an alt corp you're at war with. And those are not the only faster options, just the more obvious ones. Just saying, if you're industrious enough, you could probably wipe out 50+ ships per hour easily. If you do that with tier 3 BSs (because those also have the best insurance value/manufacture time ratio too), even a 1% difference between the "breakeven" point and actual purchase price of the ship could result in an activity that's better in ISK/hour than almost anything else in highsec, and also totally risk-free, even if you completely ignore potential salvage revenues. P.S. In fact, doing this yourself (as a manufacturer) instead of trying to sell the ships (due to broker fees and sales tax) actually makes more sense _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Kalni White Star Line 2010 SOLITUDE COALITION	Posted - 2010.03.12 09:08:00 - [16] Waiting to get from pod to next ship slows you up by at least 30s, 20s to assemble and insure, 30s undock thermometer, mebbe 40/hour and you would be stir crazy
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2010.03.12 09:49:00 - [17] Originally by: Kalni Waiting to get from pod to next ship slows you up by at least 30s, 20s to assemble and insure, 30s undock thermometer, mebbe 40/hour and you would be stir crazy The first 30 seconds from being docked to boarding the ship can be those seconds you use to assemble and insure, and there's no timer on the undock (with a fast connection and a fast machine that could be as little as 3 seconds) nor is there any timer between boarding a ship and undocking, and you don't even have to be inside the ship when it blows up to collect the insurance (as long as nobody else boards it first, and if you use the "stations guns killing it" routine it should be unboardable anyway, IIRC, since it's already targeted), and again IIRC, there's no timer between ejecting and docking, so, theoretically, you could even reach and beat 60/hour that way. _ Beginner's ISK making guide \| Manufacturer's helper \| All about reacting _
Kalni White Star Line 2010 SOLITUDE COALITION	Posted - 2010.03.12 10:00:00 - [18] I'm going to give it a go on my badger stock tonight then I'd love to do some cruisers or BS but buying the BPC's would make it non profitable i think. I guess just watch on market prices on those sell orders.
Mara Rinn	Posted - 2010.03.12 11:16:00 - [19] Aggro the sentry guns? Use a TP on a convoy leaving the station perhaps? Do you take a security hit for aggressing NPC structures such as sentry guns? [Aussie players: join channels ANZAC or AUSSIES]
Weaver Goldentongue Minmatar Iron Dragon Industries	Posted - 2010.03.12 12:29:00 - [20] Yes you do, that's the downside to going down that route. It is however a lot quicker than going down the self-destruct route (circa 4 mins per ship in total)
Weaver Goldentongue Minmatar Iron Dragon Industries	Posted - 2010.03.12 12:32:00 - [21] Originally by: Akita T Originally by: Kalni Waiting to get from pod to next ship slows you up by at least 30s, 20s to assemble and insure, 30s undock thermometer, mebbe 40/hour and you would be stir crazy The first 30 seconds from being docked to boarding the ship can be those seconds you use to assemble and insure, and there's no timer on the undock (with a fast connection and a fast machine that could be as little as 3 seconds) nor is there any timer between boarding a ship and undocking, and you don't even have to be inside the ship when it blows up to collect the insurance (as long as nobody else boards it first, and if you use the "stations guns killing it" routine it should be unboardable anyway, IIRC, since it's already targeted), and again IIRC, there's no timer between ejecting and docking, so, theoretically, you could even reach and beat 60/hour that way. I believe there's a 30 second timer after ejecting your ship - not 100% certain though.
RAW23	Posted - 2010.03.12 14:01:00 - [22] Originally by: Mara Rinn Aggro the sentry guns? Use a TP on a convoy leaving the station perhaps? Do you take a security hit for aggressing NPC structures such as sentry guns? Actually, you don't. Not sure about convoys but sentry guns are 100% safe to use a TP on.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2010.03.12 14:12:00 - [23] Originally by: Akita T The first 30 seconds from being docked to boarding the ship can be those seconds you use to assemble and insure, and there's no timer on the undock (with a fast connection and a fast machine that could be as little as 3 seconds) nor is there any timer between boarding a ship and undocking, and you don't even have to be inside the ship when it blows up to collect the insurance (as long as nobody else boards it first, and if you use the "stations guns killing it" routine it should be unboardable anyway, IIRC, since it's already targeted), and again IIRC, there's no timer between ejecting and docking, so, theoretically, you could even reach and beat 60/hour that way. Love all the theory, but shouldn't it be tested? I would provide free salvage service in order to watch you suicide 60 ships in an hour. I couldn't do 20 and that was before they nerfed the station sentry aggro.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.03.12 14:32:00 - [24] I don't think you can dock that quick... Undock has what a 30s timer no matter what state you're in. If you undock in a ship and it dies you can't insta-dock in a POD you have to wait out the undock timer. Assuming you have all your ships assembled you have to wait another 30s to get into it. That alone is one minute. Getting into the ship takes about 2-5 seconds. Undock can take anywhere between 10s and 40s depending on the system, the speed of your machine and internet connection. From that point it doesn't matter how long it takes the guns to kill you, you can't dock again until 30s later. So anywhere between 72 and 105 seconds per ship. So between 34 and 50 ships an hour should be your MAX speed assuming you're sitting on the server and using an uber rig to do it. Amarr for Life
Durtstarr	Posted - 2010.03.12 14:37:00 - [25] Originally by: cosmoray Originally by: Dzil Alt Originally by: cosmoray At those prices mineral basket is 198. At the time I bet there was plenty of stupid builders allowing mass reprocessing of ships. I'm a little fuzzy on the basket. I get the general concept is that a combination of minerals --> Battleship --> insurance fraud, but are the various different ship options for junking minerals really so close together than we can arrive at any one specific combination and say that's the most efficient way to convert to isk, and therefore defines the basket? The mineral basket is fairly equivalent percentage over all ships. i.e if it is 10% lower for a Rokh it will be 10% lower for a stabber. It is more effective using Tier 3 battleships as each percentage point equals more ISK. I'm a little unclear on this as well. Did you use a single ship - a battleship I presume? - to come to your 198 number with the 2007 prices? Is the basket standardized by a specific ship?
cosmoray Bella Vista Holdings Corp	Posted - 2010.03.12 14:57:00 - [26] Max speed is about 90 - 120 second per ship. I did a test with 60 Rokh's. In my production system away from Jita. Named them 1- 60. Insured all of them. Fitted a Target Painter I on number 1. Undocked TP'd a sentry gun get popped, 30 second penalty re-docked, waiting time, got in next ship undocked, and sentry guns engage within about 15 seconds. You can do about 30 - 35 ships an hr that route without salvage. The important thing to do is insure ALL of them in advance. One mistake with insurance and you can wipe profits in 1 ship.
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2010.03.12 16:54:00 - [27] Originally by: cosmoray Max speed is about 90 - 120 second per ship. I did a test with 60 Rokh's. In my production system away from Jita. Named them 1- 60. Insured all of them. Fitted a Target Painter I on number 1. Undocked TP'd a sentry gun get popped, 30 second penalty re-docked, waiting time, got in next ship undocked, and sentry guns engage within about 15 seconds. You can do about 30 - 35 ships an hr that route without salvage. The important thing to do is insure ALL of them in advance. One mistake with insurance and you can wipe profits in 1 ship. When did you do that test? That worked for me once, but then they made it so you had to re-aggro the station sentries each time. If it does still work, there is a 30 second invuln period after undocking that you need to break by targeting something or controlling the ship. Also, I must have uber skills because the station guns took forever to kill me.

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