Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2010.04.04 18:56:00 -
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Should a savy owner blow up his extra ship inventories and reprocess and sell piles of lowest level mission loot prior to Tyranis?
As it stands now , a great many ships are trading at or even below the price support level of the current insurance program .
Currently, you can essentially sell a drake to a npc for 26.4 million by paying 11.4 for insurance , blowing it up , and receiving 38 million. That "sales" process takes 3 or 4 minutes per ship , time which is worth a million or three depending on your isk/per hour altneratives. Huge numbers of ôshipsö are sold this way à orà you might say this is a way to sell ore to npcÆs (with addition expenses of the time and resources to produce the ships).
With current ore supplies, without that NPC price support you'd have a glut of ore and things like Drake selling for far less .... they would keep falling to the point where macro miners stopped mining, which might be pretty low.
Now, the proposed changes to insurance will remove the firm floor...the payout for a drake will no longer be 38 million, but will reflect the current prices of the materials adjusted every few weeks or so (if I read right). The current material prices would presumably lead to a 26.5 million drake insurance payout and if platinum insurance still cost 30% youÆbe be looking at a net payout of around 18 million for selling the drake to a npc.
However, that might just be the startà.because as mentioned the current ore prices are supported by the current fixed pay outs. Ore would begin to fall to the price where it cost 18 million to produce a drake, then the insurance payout would fall again when reajusted to those new ore pricesà the next step might be 14 million û ish.
Only when enough people lose interest in mining at the lower mineral prices and less supply is brought to the market, only then will the market stabilize.
NOW, there are also going to be serious changes in the SUPPLY of ore from missions. Currently mission loot reprocessing produces a ôlargeö portion of the ore used by industry to build things like ships. (could ôlargeö be 30%, 40% idk) and it looks like that will be more that cut in half possibly lower. Changes in drone compounds will have them yield a bit more ore though. Still, there will be a large drop of ore supply from missions.
I think the calculations being made are will the decreased ore demand by removing easy npc sales via insuance = the reduction of ore flowing from missions. Its fairly logical that if you reduce supply and demand equally prices would remain roughly stable .
My suspicion though is that the amount of ore produced by mining alone is still over the amount of ships lost through pvp and mission mistakes. IÆm guessing that the acceleration of intentional ship destructions prompted them to finally move on the issue. (the red herring is the free suicide gank ships, but IMO an extra 10 million cost per gank ship has next to 0% with the gank motivation calculations ). I donÆt think mission running was accelerating, so IÆm guessing that mining output was accelerating and if so, the trend will likely continue even if the reduction of mission ore initially matches the surplus of ore needed for truly replacing ships.
If so, it might also be a good time to reprocess all of the mission loot while there are still firm price supports in place. I suppose if everyone destroyed all of their ships and reprocessed all of their ore prior to tyranis, there might be tight supplies for a week or two afterà but IÆm sure not everyone will act.
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