| Pages: 1 [2] :: one page |
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Ghoest
   |
Posted - 2010.04.15 02:40:00 -
[31]
This thread presents and interesting and novel question.
Wherever you went - Here you are.
|
Nahkep Narmelion
Gallente
CALIMA COLLABORATIVE
|
Posted - 2010.04.15 02:56:00 -
[32]
No it doesn't.
So yeah the OP got an unlikely result. Big deal, by this logic nobody should ever win a the lottery. Think of it this way, suppose we have 2,000 people logging in and doing the exact same thing jobs/invention wise (assuming modules, skills being roughly the same, etc.) So we have this 0.01% chance. Suppose they do it for 5 days. Now we have 10,000 trials. The probability of not getting this result with those 10,000 trials is 0.3679 or 36.79%. Or conversely we'd expect one or more such events with a probability of 0.632. In short it is not surprising in the least. The problem with most people looking at this is that they are working in the wrong probability space. It isn't just that the OP got an unlikely event for himself, but that when we consider all the other inventors out there such a result becomes damn likely.
Find 50 more people having the same problem in a week and you might have something, until then nothing to see here save a failure to understand probability and apply various formulae and theorems to the correct probability space.
|
Backfyre
|
Posted - 2010.04.15 13:15:00 -
[33]
 Originally by: Borun Tal
...two days ago a small run of drone inventions were 13 successes for 14 attempts.
Ah, the guilty one steps forward! I think you owe the OP some drone BPCs. I will act as mediary, so place 6 of those BPCs on contract to me and I will see they get to their rightful owner. 
|
Nahkep Narmelion
Gallente
CALIMA COLLABORATIVE
|
Posted - 2010.04.16 03:19:00 -
[34]
I'm going to try to explain this one last time in, hopefully an intuitive manner. The probability of winning the lottery off of a single ticket purchase is very, very, very low. So by the logic of the OP and those who think there is something to that post anyone who wins a state lottery has cheated.
However, when you consider that millions of tickets have been sold the chances of someone NOT winning are astronomically small.
Please, everyone book mark this thread and when the next one pops up link it. Hell giving it a sticky would be lovely, but I doubt it will happen.
|
| |
|
| Pages: 1 [2] :: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |