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Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.05.13 14:36:00 -
[1]
Nocxium and Isogen prices are rocketing upwards ahead of patch.
However will the mineral basket principle hold solid with lower insurance cap.
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Tau Cabalander
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.05.13 15:22:00 -
[2]
Pre-expansion speculation and hoarding is nothing new, and doesn't always make sense or follow well established rules or trends.
Things that I'm doing:
* Keeping max POS fuel for patch day/week/month.
* Stocking-up on POS fuel and commodities.
* Queuing long skills.
* Stopping manufacturing, and putting more BPO into research.
* Canceling buy orders.
Not because of any proposed changes, just because in my experience these are good things to do at this time.
I think we were just starting to see the markets stabilize after the upset of Dominion, and Tyrannis will no doubt shake things up some more for a while to come.
Your crystal ball is as accurate as anyone's at this point.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.13 15:36:00 -
[3]
The "mineral basket principle" as you call it will no longer function in exactly the same way it used to before Tyrannis, if you can call it "functioning" at all.
Thanks to the auto-adjusting T1 ship payouts, there will no longer be a single stable value the "basket" will trend towards - in times of heavy war, it will keep going up, in times of relative peace it will plummet - if you thought it looked relatively stable before, now it will be utter unpredictable chaos.
The "basket price" will keep drifting up and down freely (even if slowly), but the oscillations in individual mineral types have a higher frequency of shifts than the basket anyway, so it'll be nearly useless in trying to determine which way each individual mineral will go to by looking at the current "basket price".
Everything is possible right before and right after a patch, it can even get to a place that should be impossible under normal circumstances : we could see a major crash followed by a major spike and another crash after, or we could experience just a major crash with minimal recovery, or some minerals might crash heavily to never recover while others barely oscillate in price... almost anything goes.
We're going to pass through at least two, probably three or more insurance payout adjustments before prices become reasonably stable... but they'll never be as stable as they used to be ever again (and that's not saying much considering they weren't really that stable before either).
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Mara Rinn
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Posted - 2010.05.14 05:07:00 -
[4]
The mineral basket will continue to function in a different form: regardless of the absolute value of any mineral, the relative demand for minerals will determine the prices of minerals relative to each other. An oversupply of one mineral will drive the price of that one down, which will bring the price of certain popular hull types and modules down, which means more of those will get flown and exploded, which means the demand on other minerals used to make those ships and modules will go up, leading to other minerals in the basket rising in price.
No longer will the demand for ships be driven by their price relative to insurance repayments. Demand for ships will be driven by relative expense to replace, compared to utility of the hull. More people will be willing to fly (and lose) a Curse, for example, when replacing the hull costs 20M ISK after insurance, as opposed to the present situation of costing about 70M ISK after insurance. Being able to lose two or three ships of that type for the same ISK means pilots will be more willing to fly them dangerously. Getting into the hull in the first place will be expensive, what is now 90M for a recon cruiser hull will likely escalate to eg: 110M, but cost to replace will come down.
So I'd suggest that the mineral basket will still influence the market, but the demand will be generated by ships being blown up in actual combat, rather than being self destructed on their maiden voyages.
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TheBlueMonkey
Gallente
Priory Of The Lemon
Atlas Alliance
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Posted - 2010.05.17 09:58:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: Akita T
Things I read
So you're saying it'll be like penny trading???
I'm sooo buying concentrated OJ when it hits 1.25 a barrel
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Nothing is worthless, you may have gotten it for free but it still has an inherent value
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Jimmina
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Posted - 2010.05.17 14:53:00 -
[6]
Originally by: TheBlueMonkey
Originally by: Akita T
I'm sooo buying concentrated OJ when it hits 1.25 a barrel
That movie never gets old.
Commodity basket principles only apply in a stable market with known variables. During a transition between them, it goes out the window. A perfect example of this is the many freezes of trading the Yuan (Chinese currency fixed to a basket of international currencies) during the economic turmoil in late 2008.
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nStedt
1st Furtive
Green Alliance
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Posted - 2010.05.20 12:27:00 -
[7]
It makes perfect sense for nocx and isogen to rise. When meta0 loot goes away then the primary sources of these will lie outside high-sec. This prolly make some people uneasy about future supply.
1st Furtive is recruiting
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captain foivos
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Posted - 2010.05.20 14:41:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Akita T
I use the words "mineral basket" obnoxiously and often incorrectly to such an excessive degree that CCP has considered rewarding anyone who ganks me a free Polaris Frigate.
Just sayin'.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
If you're going to quote me that's great, but it must be something I've actually said. Shadow.
You DID say this |
My Postman
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Posted - 2010.05.21 10:34:00 -
[9]
I can confirm that i changed my stock of veld/trit for noxc buying at 82-85, approx. 10 days ago. I can also confirm that i¦m already making 80% pfrofit, and i¦m not selling yet.
Just saying.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.05.21 11:22:00 -
[10]
Originally by: captain foivos
I'm a douche
Really ? Wow. Brave of you to admit it.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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captain foivos
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Posted - 2010.05.21 12:57:00 -
[11]
Edited by: captain foivos on 21/05/2010 12:58:10
That's actually been a well known fact about me for a long time.
Edit: you have been added to the list of people who have framed me.
Originally by: CCP Shadow
If you're going to quote me that's great, but it must be something I've actually said. Shadow.
You DID say this |
Llyandrian
Amarr
Livestock Science Exchange
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Posted - 2010.05.21 14:09:00 -
[12]
Originally by: captain foivos
That's actually been a well known fact about me for a long time.
Edit: you have been added to the list of people who have framed me.
If throwing some more fuel on to a raging inferno is trolling, I plead guilty to cashing out for a nice fat profit. 
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Cpt Branko
Retired Pirate Club
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Posted - 2010.05.21 15:10:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Mara Rinn
No longer will the demand for ships be driven by their price relative to insurance repayments. Demand for ships will be driven by relative expense to replace, compared to utility of the hull. More people will be willing to fly (and lose) a Curse, for example, when replacing the hull costs 20M ISK after insurance, as opposed to the present situation of costing about 70M ISK after insurance. Being able to lose two or three ships of that type for the same ISK means pilots will be more willing to fly them dangerously. Getting into the hull in the first place will be expensive, what is now 90M for a recon cruiser hull will likely escalate to eg: 110M, but cost to replace will come down.
I wouldn't really go so far as to speculate on that, and my guess would be, given moon goo supply is more or less constant, that the overall price of using the low insurance payout stuff (aren't combat recons getting a low % of material cost?) will go up, and the price of using the highly insurable ship types like small T2 ships will go down. I would also speculate on T2 rigs getting somewhat cheaper with more T2 being exploded. However... my crystal ball is as good as everyone else's.
Also, aren't insurance payouts dependent on the trimmed mean of component prices and not ship prices? With negative ME/PE producers setting the prices, the overall cost of using a T2 ship isn't going down very much (which is, tbh, fine).
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Nahkep Narmelion
Gallente
CALIMA COLLABORATIVE
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Posted - 2010.05.21 23:56:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Cpt Branko
I wouldn't really go so far as to speculate on that, and my guess would be, given moon goo supply is more or less constant,...
Moo goo supply from moons has an upper bound which is a bit different from saying supply is fixed. While alchemy right now might not make up a huge part of the market if prices of moon goo do go up, then it might become more of a factor.
However, I agree with you that the initial impact on T2 modules and ships due to the insurance change is likely to be smaller than on T1 ships.
The one way that I can see there being an impact is via datacores. Mission runners might start using their standings with various corps/factions to start utilizing research agents more intensively than they currently are to help offset the loss of income due to changes in mineral prices. Don't forget that not only are insurance mechanics changing, but that drone poo and mission loot drops are as well. If some mineral prices drop signifcantly and mission loot is reduced, the income mission runners see from refining the latter will also drop. Similarly for the changes in drone materials. And income from datacores can be passive, skill up and then just drop by once a month to collect your datacores and sell them.
Datacores are a major cost component for a number of modules, less so for ships I would guess.
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Lyn Kishin
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Posted - 2010.05.23 12:20:00 -
[15]
Originally by: nStedt
It makes perfect sense for nocx and isogen to rise. When meta0 loot goes away then the primary sources of these will lie outside high-sec. This prolly make some people uneasy about future supply.
From the latest sisi patch only BS sized loot is meta 0 free (replaced by one metal scrap, lol) cruiser and frig rats still drop meta 0 loot, in both missions and ratting.
Course BS mods probably make up a signifigant percentage of mission minerals, but still, it's not been eliminated entirely.
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