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Darthion Illys
Amarr
Tyrans d'Or
Umbrella Chemical Inc
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Posted - 2010.06.17 20:59:00 -
[31]
I still believe those estimates might be a bit high, Akita.
Though... one thing's for sure. They will go up in price. And the 101 random people who normally have no clue, who are now trying to dump their NPC-bought stock for quick panic-ISK, are funny to watch... and good to profit from.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 21:14:00 -
[32]
 Originally by: Darthion Illys
I still believe those estimates might be a bit high, Akita.
The "high" numbers are the "you'd have to be somewhat rich to not participate" ones.
The "low" numbers are the "it's a decent enough for a lot of people" ones.
There's obviously an even lower "we can't stop here, this is MACROLAND" level of prices about just again as much below, but those were not "featured".
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
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Posted - 2010.06.17 22:07:00 -
[33]
Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 17/06/2010 22:08:36
Akita's numbers sound about right to me, with the caveat that it will probably take a year to reach those prices for a lot of the NPC sold stuff and guidance systems might be more like 5 years.
As for all the speculation about the 3 mil buy order for 1500 on silicate glass, I have some info there. As the person who filled it, I can confirm they weren't using a margin trading trick or anything. I sold the full 3 million units. I think it was likely a bad attempt at manipulation (7 4k orders for 1500 would make a lot more sense) or someone who doesn't have a good idea of what is to come in the next few weeks. Either way, I got to liquidate 3 million of the silicate glass I had chilling at ~581% more than I paid for them :)
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Snabbik Shigen
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Posted - 2010.06.17 22:07:00 -
[34]
You're not going to see any but the rarest of P1 for more then 100 ISK/u, with most P1 in the 20-50 ISK/u range. That will push P2 down into the 300-1000 range and P3 down to the 2000-5000 ISK/u range. And P4 will end up down around 300k-750k per unit (including the 50k export tax).
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.17 22:13:00 -
[35]
Originally by: Snabbik Shigen
You're not going to see any but the rarest of P1 for more then 100 ISK/u
So you're basically saying you're almost completely certain we'll be in "this PI stuff is for macroes" territory, profit-wise ?
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
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Posted - 2010.06.17 22:15:00 -
[36]
Originally by: Snabbik Shigen
You're not going to see any but the rarest of P1 for more then 100 ISK/u, with most P1 in the 20-50 ISK/u range. That will push P2 down into the 300-1000 range and P3 down to the 2000-5000 ISK/u range. And P4 will end up down around 300k-750k per unit (including the 50k export tax).
0/10
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Fraa Jaad
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Posted - 2010.06.22 15:19:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Akita T
So you're basically saying you're almost completely certain we'll be in "this PI stuff is for macroes" territory, profit-wise ?
Are you basically saying that you're almost completely certain that macros will have little to no effect on the PI market?
I don't see the reasoning in any projections based on a miraculous absence of macro influence in the PI market. Once we have a better idea of how much PI material can be harvested at maximum extraction rates, we'll get a better idea of whether the macro influence will be minimal or huge.
Given that PI extraction looks repetitive enough to be easily macroed, I will be shocked if most macro mining and macro mission running accounts (who by definition are already willing to break the rules) don't wind up adding PI macros. Just a rough estimate of the number of current macro users doesn't bode well for the high PI price speculations.
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pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.06.22 20:20:00 -
[38]
Since this thread was talking about stockpiles, just compare the possible output of macros to existing stockpiles of things like, say, robotics. Robotics is stockpiled to forever and it would take macros months (or years) to compete in terms of sell order volume. Just glance at the cost of robotics compared to other P3s.
Anyone producing robotics or its P2 ingredients (ie, consumer electronics) is very bad at Eve Online and deserves the terrible isk/hr they earn in comparison to producing non-npc-seeded P3s.
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Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2010.06.22 20:52:00 -
[39]
Originally by: pmchem
Since this thread was talking about stockpiles, just compare the possible output of macros to existing stockpiles of things like, say, robotics. Robotics is stockpiled to forever and it would take macros months (or years) to compete in terms of sell order volume. Just glance at the cost of robotics compared to other P3s.
Anyone producing robotics or its P2 ingredients (ie, consumer electronics) is very bad at Eve Online and deserves the terrible isk/hr they earn in comparison to producing non-npc-seeded P3s.
The buy orders for Robotics continue to rise and they're much higher volumes then most of the other P3s. It may not be "profit maximizing" but it's "easy quick money" and that's a subjective call as to which is better. The better comparison for idiocy is guidance systems. As much as people talked about Robotics, I think Guidance systems were the biggest hit.
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pmchem
Minmatar
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.06.22 22:36:00 -
[40]
I'll take the profit maximization via goods which several thousand fewer people are selling, thanks. heh. Robotics is only easy money in PI if your time is free~
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.22 22:51:00 -
[41]
Edited by: Akita T on 22/06/2010 22:52:29
Originally by: Fraa Jaad
Originally by: Akita T
So you're basically saying you're almost completely certain we'll be in "this PI stuff is for macroes" territory, profit-wise ?
Are you basically saying that you're almost completely certain that macros will have little to no effect on the PI market?
I don't see the reasoning in any projections based on a miraculous absence of macro influence in the PI market.
If we follow your line of thought, the numbers for PI work out as paying just a pittance, barely around 1 mil/day (or per hour or however you chose to set it all up) for P.I., which is a bit of a stretch, to be honest, considering highsec mining still yields quite a few mil ISK/hour and has a long-standing macro population assisting.
While not impossible (if demand for PI stuff is low enough to be fully filled by macros almost entirely), it's an unlikely scenario.
The macro influence is "built in" for calculation purposes when you have as a starting assumption an income level.
For instance, you can be almost certain there is heavy macro influence in mining ore, right ?
One can only assume PI macro-ing level will be somewhat comparable to mining macro-ing level EVENTUALLY (but much less so at the start since macros/bots will have to be designed and perfected first), so the best way to ESTIMATE all of it is to figure out a likely (eventual) profitability level for PI based on current (and upcoming) mining profitability level.
And then, you work back from the profitability level to unit prices, NOT the other way around.
Well, we might just have to wait and see, I guess.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Scout Ops
Red Federation
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Posted - 2010.06.22 23:28:00 -
[42]
As you said, someone has made perfect business there. I made some hundred millions myself but will probably lose much more on following months.
Stockpiled some stuff for next 9 months, but then??? Manufacturing costs will climb and im not sure prices of final products will follow accordingly. Probably manufacturers will eat these costs.
Prices will climb up to at least what shows this spreadsheet:
Linkage
Welcome to planetary interaction. Enjoy.
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Marshiro
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Posted - 2010.06.22 23:55:00 -
[43]
Edited by: Marshiro on 23/06/2010 00:03:50
Its hard to compute the eventual "macro equilibrium" rate of return.
From the perspective of a macro developer, a number of things comes to mind that would determine his entry to the market.
1. Marginal time cost for expanding operations. (new macros, etc)
2. Cost of logistics of moving pi materials around.
3. The risk of detection by ccp or other player interdiction (probably nil in highsec)
4. Profit from all that work
The different cost factors may make the attractiveness of pi different from macromining and change the ultimate equilibrium value. The other factor is that a pi macro can be run at the same time as a mining macro. My personal feeling is that the most expensive factor above is the logistics, and pi should be compared to reactions as opposed to mining.
As for macros supplying the entire economy, it would make sense regardless of scale of pi demand, assuming that macro operations can be scaled up indefinitely without getting ccp-ed, up the point where marginal profit of deployment is not worth the work. Mining operations leave a more visible signature and this may have prevented truly absurd expansion of macros in the days before insurance nerf.
The bottom to the mineral market is also a unknown at the time. Perhaps minerals and pi would both be worthless barring another unholy rage.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.22 23:55:00 -
[44]
Originally by: Scout Ops
Stockpiled some stuff for next 9 months, but then??? Manufacturing costs will climb and im not sure prices of final products will follow accordingly. Probably manufacturers will eat these costs.
Not initially, maybe, but eventually, all costs get passed down to consumers 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Weaselior
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2010.06.23 00:22:00 -
[45]
Originally by: Seminole Sun
The buy orders for Robotics continue to rise and they're much higher volumes then most of the other P3s. It may not be "profit maximizing" but it's "easy quick money" and that's a subjective call as to which is better. The better comparison for idiocy is guidance systems. As much as people talked about Robotics, I think Guidance systems were the biggest hit.
it would be dumb to produce any former npc seeded item because you can make more money more quickly dumping to buy orders of stuff there isn't stockpiles of: the buy orders are much higher
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Scout Ops
Red Federation
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Posted - 2010.06.23 00:31:00 -
[46]
Originally by: Akita T
Not initially, maybe, but eventually, all costs get passed down to consumers
You never know, many manufacturers out there that love to sell under costs 
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.23 02:10:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Scout Ops
Originally by: Akita T
Not initially, maybe, but eventually, all costs get passed down to consumers
You never know, many manufacturers out there that love to sell under costs
Barely under opportunity cost, and not THAT many 
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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Fraa Jaad
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Posted - 2010.06.23 03:53:00 -
[48]
Originally by: Akita T
If we follow your line of thought, the numbers for PI work out as paying just a pittance, barely around 1 mil/day (or per hour or however you chose to set it all up) for P.I., which is a bit of a stretch, to be honest, considering highsec mining still yields quite a few mil ISK/hour and has a long-standing macro population assisting.
While not impossible (if demand for PI stuff is low enough to be fully filled by macros almost entirely), it's an unlikely scenario.
...
What's unlikely? That initially high prices in line with your projections will give the macro population sufficient incentive to develop macros for PI goods? That the influence of the macro population on PI production will cause prices to fall? That the macro population will continue to run PI macros, rather than changing back to their Pre-PI macros, even after profits fall to a minimal addition to their regular macro mining/mission running profits?
I can't assess what is or isn't likely with respect to PI prices. Too much depends on CCP's enforcement or tolerance of macros. Whether that population shrinks or grows will have more influence on where PI prices end up, than any projections we can make based on anticipated profits from honest players engaging in PI.
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Akita T
Caldari
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2010.06.23 04:07:00 -
[49]
Originally by: Fraa Jaad
What's unlikely? That initially high prices in line with your projections will give the macro population sufficient incentive to develop macros for PI goods? [...]
Starting from that...
...then the likelihood that prices will keep falling in the near future, reducing the probability appropriate bots (that combine PI with mining or other ISK-making activities, as opposed to ONLY focusing on PI) will be created and/or employed on a large enough scale early on, making it less and less likely they'll be employed on an even large scale later on, and so on and so forth.
Oh well, who knows. Again, you may be right, but I hope you aren't.
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Beginner's ISK making guide | Manufacturer's helper | All about reacting
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General Bezelbub
Caldari
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Posted - 2010.06.23 04:20:00 -
[50]
A PI Bot would only be affective if it could take advantage of the 30min cycle time to maximize extration, IE extractor/processor ratio. However, a large problem exists, and that is the depletion rate of planets, especially high-sec planets. Running 30min cycle time depletes resources very very quickly, to the point that rebuilding PI extractor at a new deposit location starts to affect profit margins.
This is the main reason I don't expect macros to crash the market, 23/7 PI management doesn't give the advantage over a player that 23/7 mining does. Plus, the high-sec macros still do not truely compete with the 0.0 planet holders.
Now, a 0.0 alliance employing large numbers of accounts bots over a wide area, could dominate, as a 0.0 planet can support for a 30min cycle time for a number of days before it crashes down.
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Fraa Jaad
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Posted - 2010.06.23 21:14:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Akita T
Oh well, who knows. Again, you may be right, but I hope you aren't.
I hope so too.
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Takseen
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Posted - 2010.06.23 21:30:00 -
[52]
Originally by: TornSoul
People exporting raws (R0) should be shot.
Or is it those actually buying R0 that should be shot.
I get confused over that sometimes.
Also, don't go shooting them, they've *already* been shot, in the foot, by them self.
Hey, its not my fault P1 materials are being listed at my local exchange at values half or less than what I can sell the P0 for. I'll keep on exporting P0 when until I'm not financially encouraged to:)
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Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
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Posted - 2010.06.23 22:19:00 -
[53]
Macro'd PI kind of sucks in comparison to other macro opportunities though. Macro'd PI in high sec isn't going to run much more than 8 BIFs. Lets assume it hits 8, and depletion affects are minimal (which they aren't). W/ 5 planets at 8 BIFs and assuming 150/unit for P1 that's a whopping 38k units or 5.7 mil a day. Whoopty friggin doo. A macro ratter earns 3-8 times that in a single hour. A macro miner is anywhere from 20 mil/day to 40 mil/day or higher for the ones that operate in 0.0 (hi2u shadows of xxdeath).
Yes you can run a bunch of PI accounts but you can do the same with ice mining.
I'm not saying people won't macro PI because they will. I just think its unlikely that macro will drop it soooooooo far below other macro opportunities. I personally think the floor is about 100-150/unit for P1 and the ceiling (before macros start piling in) somewhere around 750. 150/P1 would put P2 at 2400, altho P2 that can't be made on a single planet would likely be more.. say around 3k. That'd put 2 input P3 like robotics at 21k, ignoring margins that will come from upgrading P1 to P3.
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Darthion Illys
Amarr
Tyrans d'Or
Umbrella Chemical Inc
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Posted - 2010.06.24 15:18:00 -
[54]
The thing is... those who are currently running mining macros (and are therefore more likely to put up PI macros, more than anyone), won't do it unless the PI macro gives bigger profits than the mining macro.
And as it stands right now, from the various projections on just how profitable PI will be, it definitely seems like macro mining 23/7 would be far more profitable.
So PI macro's crashing the PI market is probably highly unlikely, even with decent-ish passive income from PI.
But then again... sceptics and pessimists will always be sceptics and pessimists.
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Olusegun Obasanjo
Minmatar
CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
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Posted - 2010.06.24 15:34:00 -
[55]
Originally by: Vadimik
Thus, either everyone with stockpiles have nerves of steel or stockpiles aren't big enough to crash the market.
nerves of steel reporting in
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Guilliman R
Gallente
PRO Space Hunters
HUNTER'S BROTHERHOOD
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Posted - 2010.06.24 17:24:00 -
[56]
Originally by: Olusegun Obasanjo
nerves of steel reporting in
Nerves of steel here too, reporting in! |
Vilgan Mazran
Aperture Harmonics
K162
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Posted - 2010.06.24 21:10:00 -
[57]
Nerves of steel, checkin in :P
Crashing would be kind of dumb, heh.
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