With these numbers, the game isn't changing. You need 20 cobalt moons to replace the amount of one tech moon.

new alchemy is gonna lower the base cost at current prices to 2.9k per plat tech down from 92.5k with normal reaction.

what that means overall not sure but a return to the 90m for a logie is a good guess

Is your POS fuel free?

Today two large towers can produce (for example) Fullerides with 1 complex and 1 simple reactor in both (one simple making platinum technite from technetium and platinum) - 200 units per hour, split to two complex reactors to get two cycles of Fullerides every hour.

In order to replace the output of that single simple reactor, you need TEN large towers with total of 20 reactors doing alchemy. Each reactor producing 10 platinum technite per hour. A two-tower Fullerides setup becomes 12-tower setup and total fuel cost goes from 80 blocks an hour to 480 blocks an hour.

Sure, the raw materials for those 10 large towers will be cheaper than the raw technetium but it sure costs some ISKies to run 10 extra towers (not to mention all the :effort: of shuffling stuff around)

So may I suggest you check your math a bit...

Let's say you want to get the absolute LOWEST value technetium is likely to settle down at.
So, let's downvalue cobalt back down to previous negligible levels of 500 ISK and assume platinum hovers at only around 5k and with a very pathetic 100m/mo/reactor (be it regular reaction of alchemy reaction, although it's more work to do an alchemy reaction than a regular reaction due to the extra refine and refill step).
1 "regular" non-alchemy PT should be 0.5 tech + 0.5 plat + 0.1 fuel cube + 700 ISK for 100m ISK/mo/reactor profit.
1 tech = 2 PT - (plat+0.2 fuel cube+1.4k ISK), give or take, so in other words, 1 tech = 2 * alchemy PT - 8.8k, roughly.
Let's make that 1 tech = 2 * PT - 9k.

A) for 20:1 alchemy
1 alchemy PT = 5k cobalt + 2.5k plat + 35k fuel + 14k profit = 56.5k ISK
1 tech = 105k ISK minimum

B) for 10:1 alchemy
1 alchemy PT = 2.5k cobalt + 2.5k plat + 17.5k fuel + 7k profit = 29.5k ISK
1 tech = 50k ISK minimum

C) for 5:1 alchemy
1 alchemy PT = 1.25k cobalt + 2.5k plat + 8.75k fuel + 3.5k profit = 16k ISK
1 tech = 23k ISK minimum


Mind you, we're talking negligible platinum price hike from current semi-speculated levels (unlikely but conceivable), lack of hike in fuel block costs (possible, but not certain), cobalt bottoming out to barely pre-speculation frenzy levels (also unlikely, but borderline possible), and a HORRIBLY LOW returns on work expended on the alchemy reactions.
So, those are quite literally the rock-bottom prices at which you would be crazy to sell at, with actual prices most likely well above that.
The previous post was closer to the other extreme, more of a top price in each scenario, whereas this is a bottom.

Okay im going to do a little bit of math for you high-sec no-math-needed guys.

A educated estimate landed us at a conservative 400 Tech Moons in EVE, there are probably more.
Each of these Tech Moons can generate 200 Platinum Technite per hour.

The new Alchemy allows for you to replace the 100 Technetium per hour with 2,000 Cobalt per hour.
The new reaction allows you to make 10 Platinum Technite per hour. This is 5% of the original reaction rate.
This means you need 20 PT Alchemy reactions going to math the output of a single Tech Moon, of which there is 400 of!

To match the total supply of Platinum Technite, that even enters the game, you would 20*400=8000 Reactions.
8,000 Alchemy Reactions can be done two at a time in a large tower. So lets say 4,000 new towers start up, and every tower is on its merry way to drive Tech prices down...

No, if more than a few are spotted in any system, you can probably expect it to be taken out.

Not to mention the fact that Goonswarm Federation has enough liquid isk and brains to flip areas of the market.

The rate of production is not significant enough to be able to realistically run the PT through a complex reaction afterwards, so must will go to market.


Alliances that own tech moons wont see too much of a drop in profit, it wont bankrupt anyone, atleast anyone who is riding the "bubble of speculation" until it pops.

NOW is a good time, for the time being, to have stockpiles of Cobalt to sell to ill-informed speculators who just know that if they believe enough they can break the stranglehold that powerblocks and OTEC has over them.

If this is a nerf by CCP standards, they have a while to go. This is more

Tech is the current bottleneck, hence ints high price, bottleneck normally indicates that excess demand for the product exists, the question is how much supply would be required until price falls back to production cost plus a resonable profit.

The person who mentioned that there are 400 tech moons, blah ... blah, blah. That does not matter it would problay only require a few dozen tech moons worth of output to in efffect cap the the price of tech.

Right now the 20:1 price would break the cartel benefit, but would still leave the tech moon lords very rich. 10:1 would be a a inconviance and may require a new source of income for the gonnies, 5:1 could inpotenial be game changing as tech more than halves and it could fall more since supplies may be high enough that a new botleneck forms (not likely, but possible).

Do you seriously believe that Goons would be inconvenienced by the Tech nerf? Ever since they got Dek, and figured out how screwed up the Tech bottleneck was, they probably have been hashing out how to keep going when CCP "finally fix tech".

EDIT: price floors for various ratios (absolutely no profit at all)

20:1 105k ISK/unit

10:1 52.5k ISK/unit

5:1 26.25k ISK/unit

The cartel can just set the price to the ratio floor and take less profit, while still making alchemy unprofitable. Really how dense are you

Assuming this patch goes through as currently laid out what will the wider implications be?

It seems obvious that new reactants for Platinum Technite should gain some value for those brave enough to speculate, but what about the indirect change, considering the entire T2 market is largely affected by tech prices what kind of changes can we expect?

Many T2 products are dominated my the mineral costs or invention costs (Guns, T2 Siege / Triage, modules)

However things like ships which take a very large volume of tech compared to other minerals and invention costs could see a huge price drop.


Can we expect JFs, T2 BS, CS and T2 cruisers to take a large hit due to the reduced costs? Also the affected T2 BPOs should lose some build value (not collectors) due to invention being a close alternative.

What kind of prices can we expect for these ships or other items dominated by tech price? Will we see 4bn Jump freighters again? or 100m HACs?

How do I invent a Tech 2 BPO?

I cant tell if thats a troll or just stupidity....

Do you seriously believe that Goons would be inconvenienced by the Tech nerf? Ever since they got Dek, and figured out how screwed up the Tech bottleneck was, they probably have been hashing out how to keep going when CCP "finally fix tech".

EDIT: price floors for various ratios (absolutely no profit at all)

20:1 105k ISK/unit

10:1 52.5k ISK/unit

5:1 26.25k ISK/unit

The cartel can just set the price to the ratio floor and take less profit, while still making alchemy unprofitable. Really how dense are you

It's a legitimate question. Although one that is better answered by a quick google search and some reading through guides and wikis. See this one for example: http://eve.wikia.com/wiki/Invention

Edit: To clarify: This is about BPCs, T2 BPOs cannot be invented.

[...]The entire economy is headed for an extreme deflationary cycle.

Bumping with an update to the plan

After evaluating the market reactions and the estimates from experienced players we now feel comfortable accelerating our planned implementation these reactions. We're going to have them start at 10/1 ratios and re-evaluate from there.

New versions of the reactions are:

- 100 Titanium + 100 Vanadium -> 1 Unrefined Vanadium Hafnite -> 20 Vanadium Hafnite +-á 90 Vanadium
- 100 Cobalt + 100 Platinum -> 1 Unrefined Platinum Technite -> 20 Platinum Technite + 90 Platinum
- 100 Scandium + 100 Chromium -> 1 Unrefined Solerium -> 20 Solerium + 90 Chromium
- 100 Scandium + 100 Cadmium -> 1 Unrefined Caesarium Cadmide -> 20 Caesarium Cadmide + 90 Cadmium

- 100 Evaporite Deposits + 100 Atmospheric Gases -> 1 Unrefined Hexite -> 20 Hexite

- 100 Atmospheric Gases + 100 Tungsten -> 1 Unrefined Rolled Tungsten Alloy -> 20 Rolled Tungsten Alloy + 90 Tungsten-á
- 100 Evaporite Deposits + 100 Titanium -> 1 Unrefined Titanium Chromide -> 20 Titanium Chromide + 90 Titanium
- 100 Hydrocarbons + 100 Scandium -> 1 Unrefined Fernite Alloy-> 20 Fernite Alloy + 90 Scandium
- 100 Silicates + 100 Cobalt -> 1 Unrefined Crystallite Alloy -> 20 Crystallite Alloy + 90 Cobalt

Bumping with an update to the plan

After evaluating the market reactions and the estimates from experienced players we now feel comfortable accelerating our planned implementation these reactions. We're going to have them start at 10/1 ratios and re-evaluate from there.

New versions of the reactions are:

- 100 Titanium + 100 Vanadium -> 1 Unrefined Vanadium Hafnite -> 20 Vanadium Hafnite +-á 90 Vanadium
- 100 Cobalt + 100 Platinum -> 1 Unrefined Platinum Technite -> 20 Platinum Technite + 90 Platinum
- 100 Scandium + 100 Chromium -> 1 Unrefined Solerium -> 20 Solerium + 90 Chromium
- 100 Scandium + 100 Cadmium -> 1 Unrefined Caesarium Cadmide -> 20 Caesarium Cadmide + 90 Cadmium

- 100 Evaporite Deposits + 100 Atmospheric Gases -> 1 Unrefined Hexite -> 20 Hexite

- 100 Atmospheric Gases + 100 Tungsten -> 1 Unrefined Rolled Tungsten Alloy -> 20 Rolled Tungsten Alloy + 90 Tungsten-á
- 100 Evaporite Deposits + 100 Titanium -> 1 Unrefined Titanium Chromide -> 20 Titanium Chromide + 90 Titanium
- 100 Hydrocarbons + 100 Scandium -> 1 Unrefined Fernite Alloy-> 20 Fernite Alloy + 90 Scandium
- 100 Silicates + 100 Cobalt -> 1 Unrefined Crystallite Alloy -> 20 Crystallite Alloy + 90 Cobalt

Hi all, new to this forum (not to the game) and just planted a tower on cobalt, then stumbled over this forum. Small trader / builder in game with some RL market experience, 11 yrs broker in equities, some options, but not much in RL commodities.

Was curious what thoughts were on the new mining boats with durability upgrades vs ganks etc. Would these allow for increased fuel supply hence lower the fuel costs on blocks? Wondering whether to secure a blocks supply now or wait.

Bumping with an update to the plan

After evaluating the market reactions and the estimates from experienced players we now feel comfortable accelerating our planned implementation these reactions. We're going to have them start at 10/1 ratios and re-evaluate from there.

I do modestly follow the Jita moon goo market. Pre-technetium alchemy announcement, cobalt seemed to be over produced. The volume of cobalt traded seems to have been about 1/10th the volume that was needed to make the volume of crystalline carbonide traded. Also cobalt was relatively dirt cheep compared to the other racial metals. I assume from the numbers that players who harvest cobalt tend to operate full crystalline carbonide chains and that there is so much more cobalt produced than platinum used that it became as cheep as it was, 500 isk.

Also as others have pointed out in the proposed platinum technite alchemy, the competitive ratio between cobalt and technetium is 10:1.

What hasn't been mentioned, but is probably understood, is the large demand on fullerides and nanotransistors in T2 manufacturing and the large demand on crytalline carbonided from gallente and ore t2 manufacturing. If we hypothetically replace all the technetium used to produce the required amount of platinum technite to full fill market demand with cobalt, EVE would need to produce 50 to 100 times the amount of cobalt it now produces as I can see from my loose interpretation of the market numbers. Statistically if r8s are 4 times more common that r32s then cobalt can only compete or replace about 1/10th the demand on technetium - I don't know if this is correct.

Is there enough cobalt to effectively drive down the cost of technetium?

If there isn't enough cobalt to effectively replace technetium, or a good portion of it, in the fulleride and nanotransitor chains, then cobalt will spike to about 15k to match an 80k technetium price (last time I compared values).

For the T2 Gallente manufacturer, prepare for crystalline carbonide to settle around 250.

Na, it's gonna go the other way I imagine.

When they get the level of control you imply they will be better set up to do this soon.


Your argument seems to be supply increasing will somehow increase prices?

Bumping with an update to the plan

After evaluating the market reactions and the estimates from experienced players we now feel comfortable accelerating our planned implementation these reactions. We're going to have them start at 10/1 ratios and re-evaluate from there.

[/b]

Bumping with an update to the plan

After evaluating the market reactions and the estimates from experienced players we now feel comfortable accelerating our planned implementation these reactions. We're going to have them start at 10/1 ratios and re-evaluate from there.

New versions of the reactions are:

- 100 Titanium + 100 Vanadium -> 1 Unrefined Vanadium Hafnite -> 20 Vanadium Hafnite +-á 90 Vanadium
- 100 Cobalt + 100 Platinum -> 1 Unrefined Platinum Technite -> 20 Platinum Technite + 90 Platinum
- 100 Scandium + 100 Chromium -> 1 Unrefined Solerium -> 20 Solerium + 90 Chromium
- 100 Scandium + 100 Cadmium -> 1 Unrefined Caesarium Cadmide -> 20 Caesarium Cadmide + 90 Cadmium

- 100 Evaporite Deposits + 100 Atmospheric Gases -> 1 Unrefined Hexite -> 20 Hexite

- 100 Atmospheric Gases + 100 Tungsten -> 1 Unrefined Rolled Tungsten Alloy -> 20 Rolled Tungsten Alloy + 90 Tungsten-á
- 100 Evaporite Deposits + 100 Titanium -> 1 Unrefined Titanium Chromide -> 20 Titanium Chromide + 90 Titanium
- 100 Hydrocarbons + 100 Scandium -> 1 Unrefined Fernite Alloy-> 20 Fernite Alloy + 90 Scandium
- 100 Silicates + 100 Cobalt -> 1 Unrefined Crystallite Alloy -> 20 Crystallite Alloy + 90 Cobalt

What about consistency Mr CCP Fozzie? Either keep all alchemy reactions on a 20:1 or switch all to 10:1 ratio.

OK, you got me there Jarnis. This explains the number I see in EVEMon. Couldn't wrap my head around why it was so.
Never the less, my question still remains about ingame consistency. IMO, all alchemy reactions should have the same ratio.

If Tech moons had been properly spread out through New Eden this never would have been a problem. But hell, at least after 3 years they finally decide to nerf the Goons isk faucet so that is always a plus. Now they will have to employ double the bots to farm their NPC's in Sov.

If Tech moons had been properly spread out through New Eden this never would have been a problem.