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New Fund Launching (double or nothing, speculative)

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Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.02 00:15:00 - [1] Well, I want to launch a new fund. The fund I am currently running can be found here: http://www.eveonline.com/ingameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1309874 It has been running very well, and will continue to go as intended. For the avoidance of doubt, this idea is wholly separate from that fund and will have no interaction or impact on it. I am a big fan of the idea of creating funds with defined purposes, specifically for certain investor types. My current fund is for a low risk, but liquid, investor (dividends are seldom, so they have to not need the ISK). It is low risk because the strategy is very tame. Stop reading here if you are that type of investors... if you aren't, read on. With this fund, I would like to use a purely speculative strategy, based on two types of analysis: short-term market trends and expected game rule changes. What do I mean? Well, in the first fund, I always buy low and sell high. It is a spread earning fund. This fund will be looking to buy at a historically low price (but not necessarily the current bid) and sell higher (but not necessarily at the current sell). The target items will not be the same as the previous fund - it will be high volume items - minerials, PI goods, production materials, etc etc. Yes, this fund will play with fire. I don't expect big game changes really, but who knows? If you are still reading, here are the mechanics of how I envision it: I'll take up to 1B in investor funds. I fully recognize this is a very risky venture and I can't imagine anyone wanting to put in large blocks of cash. Myself, I will contribute 100M that I have laying idle in this account. I would still launch the fund with 500M, maybe even less. The 1B I just pulled out of the air because I think it is a low fraud risk and I also do not want investors putting in tons of money - there is a real loss of principal here. This character will be the fund manager. I typically have 10-20 orders open, depending on conditions. I expect this fund to trade 10 products at most, and at some times just holding inventory waiting on price moves. How do payouts work? I will post whenever the fund doubles in NAV and give an option to redeem. Investors can take the option, or continue to let it ride... I have no idea how often this will occur. If this works, it could have very good returns and is a new asset class for investors looking for something a little more risky than the typical station trading fund. Double or nothing.. tl;dr - i want to gamble with your money with no guarantees. you should only sign up with ISK you have sitting around idle and don't care to lose. Basically a lotto ticket. I will take minimum investments of 5M. Why am I doing this? Adding some add'l spice to the game basically. Gives me something to look forward to while I'm updating orders for the other fund. Looking forward to hearing the feedback on this one - i'm open to ideas on how to make this more attractive or secure from an investor perspective. I can't think of any protections to prevent this from being a scam, except that I think I obviously care about keeping up reputation and making funds a fruitful career. That plus a potentially really low ISK balance.
Ormarr Kai	Posted - 2010.07.02 00:32:00 - [2] I'll give it a try. 100m.
Alain Kinsella Minmatar	Posted - 2010.07.02 01:29:00 - [3] Intriguing. I'll pass on this one, sorry. Happy enough with the original fund. My only main suggestion would be to place a maximum of some sort, say 25 mil per 6 months the investor is in-game. That spreads the risk around somewhat (for the individual) to manageable levels. Will also pre-empt a couple of questions: - I'm curious as to what tools you're using (or plan to use) to track orders, since most of them show everything in aggregate, instead of discrete groups. Or are you just leveraging an unused wallet division? - Will this mean that you'll also work with some of the other strategies that were 'removed' from the other fund? In particular, use of Jita and hauling.
Vandoxarr	Posted - 2010.07.02 02:54:00 - [4] Yeah mate sounds fun. Ill reserve 50 mill for now and see how it pans out waiting for more to chime in.
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.02 03:47:00 - [5] Originally by: Alain Kinsella Will also pre-empt a couple of questions: - I'm curious as to what tools you're using (or plan to use) to track orders, since most of them show everything in aggregate, instead of discrete groups. Or are you just leveraging an unused wallet division? - Will this mean that you'll also work with some of the other strategies that were 'removed' from the other fund? In particular, use of Jita and hauling. first item - yeah, an unused wallet will be used to store the trades and money. also will use a station crate to hold inventories. i am pretty anal, so i have no worries about mixing things up. currently running 3 wallets / strategies in the other fund w/ no issues. second item - probably no hauling. I don't want to risk destruction of a ship. I also think the inventory sizes could get large. If anything I would look at doing courier contracts with a reputable firm. I know of a few to use. on jita, doubtful. It is possible, particularly if i decide to use a courier to go to another station hub from jita. Just because jita sometimes has the lowest prices around because of the volume. But I do not want to sit in Jita. That would prevent or hamper trading on the other fund - which will still be the focus due to its size and my original commitment.
Legebriril24	Posted - 2010.07.02 17:27:00 - [6] Originally by: Machete Visor tl;dr - i want to gamble with your money with no guarantees. you should only sign up with ISK you have sitting around idle and don't care to lose. Basically a lotto ticket. Originally by: Machete Visor Looking forward to hearing the feedback on this one - i'm open to ideas on how to make this more attractive or secure from an investor perspective. I can't think of any protections to prevent this from being a scam, except that I think I obviously care about keeping up reputation and making funds a fruitful career. That plus a potentially really low ISK balance. I was going to suggest perhaps leaving some collateral with a 3rd party in order to make it more secure for investors. However, from the top quote, i assume that if your trading doesn't work out then you won't be returning the investors original investment to them?
Idaara	Posted - 2010.07.02 18:00:00 - [7] I have two questions/suggestions. Assuming that you don't engage in any activity that carries the potential for a total loss (i.e. hauling it all yourself and getting ganked,) you should be able to dump sour goods at a loss. How about an option to get out when the NAV hits half of a previous milestone? When somebody decides to redeem, whether at double or half or whatever, will you allow someone else to jump in and take their spot at the redeemed amount (perhaps with priority given to remaining investors)? Oh, and I'd like to reserve a seat at this table for 100m, please. :)
Celi Annor	Posted - 2010.07.02 18:09:00 - [8] Edited by: Celi Annor on 02/07/2010 18:09:27 Edited by: Celi Annor on 02/07/2010 18:08:50 reserving 500mil if you decide t do it for 1bil I speculative trade all the time, some payouts insane, others take massive draw downs
Rasheki Minmatar Lost 5ouls	Posted - 2010.07.02 19:02:00 - [9] It appears you have 800m in player donations atm, and 100m of your own. I am in for the last 100m and i'll cover up to 250m total if anyone pulls out. ---- Ad Securitas Per Unitas For Volunteer Auditors see: VOL Audit Thread
Jay Wareth Amici Noctis	Posted - 2010.07.02 20:12:00 - [10] I like Idaara's suggestions, and am a little disappointed that I am late to the party. I would like to reserve 100mil in the event it becomes available.
Jan VanRijkdom	Posted - 2010.07.02 21:39:00 - [11] I also am late, as usual, and would be willing to invest 150m in the event of any further pullouts/expansions etc. Thanks
Taram Caldar Royal Black Watch Highlanders Warped Aggression	Posted - 2010.07.02 23:55:00 - [12] Edited by: Taram Caldar on 02/07/2010 23:56:18 Edited by: Taram Caldar on 02/07/2010 23:55:30 Just going to lay down 1 word of warning: Machette has already doubled down on his current debt and is at around 5 or 6 bln in actual debt. Has only paid dividends thus far. And has not paid principle back on any bond yet to date as he has yet to finish his current offerings. Now he's coming to ya'll for more money. I'm not saying this is a scam. I'm just letting you guys know the facts. This is a fairly young character (Born Feb of this year) who has already got over 5 billion in debt with no track record other than a couple dividend payments on a bond that he's expanded once already. Invest at your own risk. Market Alerts Mailing List
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.03 01:37:00 - [13] Originally by: Taram Caldar Edited by: Taram Caldar on 02/07/2010 23:56:18 Edited by: Taram Caldar on 02/07/2010 23:55:30 Just going to lay down 1 word of warning: Machette has already doubled down on his current debt and is at around 5 or 6 bln in actual debt. Has only paid dividends thus far. And has not paid principle back on any bond yet to date as he has yet to finish his current offerings. Now he's coming to ya'll for more money. I'm not saying this is a scam. I'm just letting you guys know the facts. This is a fairly young character (Born Feb of this year) who has already got over 5 billion in debt with no track record other than a couple dividend payments on a bond that he's expanded once already. Invest at your own risk. All true. Currently have 4B in debt (2B equity, 2B loans) from the prevous fund. This would make 5B total. Have met all obligations thusfar. In any case, I like the idea of having an out at 1/2 NAV. I mean, if I fail to double it and lose 50% ... what are the chances I would be able to double and get to 100%, and then again? So I think that is fair. Consider it a feature. I also think I'll post more frequent NAV updates. Should be easy to calculate and fun to watch. Celi, you know I would've come to you first, but you'd take the entire thing and that'd be no fun :) Here is who I have in: Ormarr Kal - 100 Vandoraxx - 50 Legebrilil24 - 100 Idaara - 100 Celi - 500 Rasheki - 100 Jay Wareth - 50 That totals 1,000 in 3rd party funds. I'll kick in my 100m for 1.1 total. Unless anyone has a problem with that number and wants it 1,000 flat (I realize I wasn't clear in my original post), in which case we have to kick out Jay and knock Rasheki down to 50. Post all complaints in this thread, etc. Or send me ISK in game. Will start as soon as all funds are received. If no funds received in 24 hrs, will open it back up to meet the 1B. Final word - I intend this to be very speculative... don't invest what you can't afford to lose.
Idaara	Posted - 2010.07.03 02:26:00 - [14] 100M isk sent. I'm aware of the risks and willing to take them. Why would a guy this smooth settle for a measly 5 bil? You can find people in Jita all the time who are leaving eve, have xx billion and will double your isk. Machete came in here saying he's pretty new to Eve, has 4B in debt, may double our money, and may blow it all on booze and hookers. 24 hours later, he's got 1B in investments pledged. Clearly this man is destined for greatness.
Vandoxarr	Posted - 2010.07.03 07:57:00 - [15] Isk Sent. Best of luck mate.
Legebriril24	Posted - 2010.07.03 10:45:00 - [16] Isk sent. Good luck!
Rasheki Minmatar Lost 5ouls	Posted - 2010.07.03 14:32:00 - [17] Investor Take: This could go a number of ways. First, you could simply take our money, provide BS updates, and say you lost it all last minute, or failed to double, if that happens, you will loose all future credibility. I dont mind taking a long shot, but i would request updates every 10 days on how this is going. If you double my money, i dont care how, you have no need to disclose this, but if you fail, full disclosure and an audit of your activities would go a long way to restoring any faith you may wish this community to have in you. Isk sent. G'luck ---- Ad Securitas Per Unitas For Volunteer Auditors see: VOL Audit Thread
Ormarr Kai	Posted - 2010.07.03 15:23:00 - [18] ISK sent! Thanks
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.03 17:36:00 - [19] Originally by: Rasheki Investor Take: This could go a number of ways. First, you could simply take our money, provide BS updates, and say you lost it all last minute, or failed to double, if that happens, you will loose all future credibility. I dont mind taking a long shot, but i would request updates every 10 days on how this is going. If you double my money, i dont care how, you have no need to disclose this, but if you fail, full disclosure and an audit of your activities would go a long way to restoring any faith you may wish this community to have in you. Isk sent. G'luck reasonable request. if i lose all your money, i'll post the eve-commander log for that wallet and i'll let an auditor look at it to verify its accuracy (ie., tieing the posted wallet to the actual wallet details).
Jay Wareth Amici Noctis	Posted - 2010.07.03 19:01:00 - [20] ISK sent, this should be fun.
Celi Annor	Posted - 2010.07.03 19:58:00 - [21] isk sent
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.03 23:42:00 - [22] confirming all isk received. trading to commence immediately.
Vandoxarr	Posted - 2010.07.04 00:16:00 - [23] Yeah updates would be nice to read, and interesting. Would be silly to disclose any major details to the public, maybe private mail to the investors would be an option ? The reason I felt fairly safe investing in Machete Visor was based on a gut feeling about his character. I see him online alot, and I mean, alot alot. He is active in signatures chat discussion and I have also followed some of his trade moves over the last 2 months. He also appears to have higher aspirations in the IPO market so credibility is an important step in getting there. The only thing that he lacks, and which is my only real worry; is that he is a young character (but I can't possibly criticise him for that as I am only 2 months old myself. Again, best of luck to you and the other investors.
Thoraemond Minmatar Far Ranger	Posted - 2010.07.04 00:49:00 - [24] Originally by: Machete Visor [...] if i lose all your money, i'll post the eve-commander log for that wallet and i'll let an auditor look at it to verify its accuracy (ie., tieing the posted wallet to the actual wallet details). A bit of auditing to confirm any claims of success would be worthwhile as well, in case you want to make any further public offerings thereafter. á á
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.07 13:17:00 - [25] so far about 200M invested in items. no major gains/losses yet on any of them - not surprising. Being opportunistic on purchasing... also noted PI prices are just too volatile to get into right now, with very very little volume. Even if they were a 'buy' the hold period is unestimable. And as we know, the items for which their is a real use (T2, fuel, etc), the massive stockpiles are still out there with fat cats calculating their paper profit daily and laughing at the stupidity of the rest of eve... expecting some fun as those liquidate. any investor have a solid reprocessing character (i.e., scrap metal at 4 or 5 and high standings)? I may have an idea...
Vandoxarr	Posted - 2010.07.14 02:19:00 - [26] Cheers for the Update Machete, good to hear not major upsets. I can't help you with the reprocessing character I am afraid.
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.14 02:55:00 - [27] i need to update the NAV, but have been a bit busy w/ work. should be able to do it this week. around 300m is uninvested - have to be choosy. PI is still too volatile. most of the products are sitting at par. one is up 60%, but will take some time to liquidate.
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.14 18:20:00 - [28] Originally by: Machete Visor i need to update the NAV, but have been a bit busy w/ work. should be able to do it this week. around 300m is uninvested - have to be choosy. PI is still too volatile. most of the products are sitting at par. one is up 60%, but will take some time to liquidate. estimated NAV at 1.135B with 312M uninvested. Not a big gain, but not much price volatility either. I think there are a few investments that could pop over the next few weeks... all depends on how PI affects production costs.
Ormarr Kai Red Federation	Posted - 2010.07.22 03:25:00 - [29] Hey Machete, How are things going? Originally by: CCP Zymurgist Underpants gnomes, although scary and humorous, are not EVE Related. Locking thread.
Machete Visor	Posted - 2010.07.23 01:50:00 - [30] Originally by: Ormarr Kai Hey Machete, How are things going? 407M uninvested and NAV of 1.2B. Uninvested is higher b/c i've been able to liquidate 173M at a profit. NAV assumes I'm able to liquidate at the current sell price, which can be risky. Prices haven't fluctuated as much as i expected on some products, but still holding.

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