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Vilgan Mazran Aperture Harmonics K162	Posted - 2010.07.06 19:40:00 - [1] After reading another post in this forum about how someone invested in bacteria and then had it crash on them, I felt obligated to provide some basic thoughts + tips on determining good PI related investments for yourself. First off, there are 2 important resources for seeing how prices will trend. Those two resources are: Eve Uni Page Wyke Mossari's Profitability Spreadsheet Wyke's Other Sheet (less accurate) (2nd Wyke link included because first was down) When PI released, items previously sold by NPCs sold at a low price and items that were previously unavailable sold at a high one. Common sense dictates that the low prices will go up and the high prices down until eventually they meet in the middle somewhere. Even if you missed out on NPC items, there is still plenty of isk to be made as the equalization has not yet happened. What to get from the first link: which PI mats can be done on 1 planet and which require multiple. Ones that require multiple will be slightly (or perhaps a lot) higher once prices equalize since there is a lot more hauling required. Okay, things I personally consider somewhat risky investments: P0 P1 unless you can get it cheap (water was at like 80 buy order for a while, might still be) P2/P3 that was not previously sold by NPCs (higher price for same effort as NPC mats) Enriched Uranium You can make isk off these if you are intelligent and comfortable with the market, but they are not (imo) for beginners. The long term trend is likely to be downwards. That said, here are a few investments I personally consider "good": Silicate Glass: 1 of only 2 P2s that requires 2 planets to make (a pain) and for some reason is still going for less than many of the other P2s sold. According to the less accurate Wyke sheet (look at the accurate one if its up!) the cost to make a single silicate glass is over 10k and they are going for like 2600 in Jita. It is definitely going to continue to go up (imo). Not to 10k, but it will likely be 10-20% above whatever price P2s settle at which I would guess is somewhere around 4-5k. Consumer Electronics: 6-7k to make and still selling for 2800ish. Also, will continue to have high demand due to the fact its used for robotics. Its gone from 800 avg price to 2800 avg price in the past week and still has legs. I wouldn't be surprised to see it at 4k 7-10 days from now. Obviously the profit was better a week ago, but that's the benefit for those who did their own research back then :P Guidance systems: longer term, but can't really go anywhere but up. Even at 7k a unit, your looking at anywhere from 2x to 4x your investment when the stockpiles do run out (which could be 6-9 months!). Nanite Repair Paste: More of a short term (1-3 month) type deal. Current cost to manufacture is roughly 20-23k/unit and yet its going for 7k/unit. Will continue to trend upwards while cost to manufacture trends downwards until they meet probably around 12-14k 30-90 days from now. It was one of the less stockpiled items and also requires 2 pain in the ass to make P3s (3 dif planets each and 3 P2s for one of them) so its not going to crash anytime soon. Planetary Vehicles: Pain in the ass to make P3, requires 3 different planets, requires 3 P2 inputs, and yet sells for much less than robotics (10k buy 18k sell!). Will continue to trend upwards, and will eventually be one of the higher priced P3s (probably around 30-50k). These are my personal opinions, and my thinking. None of this is guaranteed (obviously). Main thing to get from this probably are the links at the start and thinking about what that might mean rather than "omg guaranteed 2x if I invest in x".
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.06 19:55:00 - [2] The whole idea of speculation is get in cheap, get our fast with a profit.. If you hang around it's not speculation it's an investment. I wouldn't invest 1 penny in GS now knowing that 150Mil units where purchased before Shutoff order and only 40 mil have sold so far.. Some I'm sure purchased by people who wanted to get on the train, Before that GS's in Forge only sold maybe 500K-750K average daily. You're looking at at least 200 days of inventory in The Forge alone. Getting into GS's now is NOT a good investment because not only is there 200 days of back inventory, but it would also have 200 days of PI Production, pushing the inventory up to a year+ before stocks are depleted enough. Amarr for Life
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2010.07.06 20:15:00 - [3] I also think, OP, that perhaps you should be looking here, here, and here as well. Not to mention this goodie here. This video should explain what I'm talking about. Wealth, howsoever got, in Eve makes Lords of morons and gentlemen of thieves; Aptitude and intellect are needless here; 'Tis impudence and money that grants fame.
Grozen Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.	Posted - 2010.07.06 20:42:00 - [4] Actually i did calculated it just now and gs has sold lil over 51m units so far.Average sales per day is 1.4m so i'd say its doing mighty fine for speculated stock.Fixed those numbers for ya knowledge is power
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.06 20:45:00 - [5] Originally by: Grozen Actually i did calculated it just now and gs has sold lil over 51m units so far.Average sales per day is 1.4m so i'd say its doing mighty fine for speculated stock.Fixed those numbers for ya I'm eyeballing the numbers, Did you work out how many where purchased too? Because I eyeballs 150mil units as well :) Amarr for Life
Grozen Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.	Posted - 2010.07.06 20:55:00 - [6] It doesn't matter how much has been purchased it matters only when its released on the market.For example i could potentially hold 5m gs but i might not sell it before it hits producers price. Its been only 20days since npc orders got shutdown surely this is not enough time to make assumptions about how much p3 should be worth, because lets face it nobody is facing any kind of shortage in goods. The majority of the ppl are calm sitting on their pre-purchased stocks and the market is seeing only 1kind of pressure:speculation. We can have a base for the price levels not sooner then 3months after the orders have been taken out. knowledge is power
Darthion Illys Amarr Tyrans d'Or Tyrans d'0r	Posted - 2010.07.06 21:01:00 - [7] You shouldn't care too much about what SencneS and Shar Tegral says about the PI market atm, since they've been trolling pretty much every PI thread that has popped up on MD so far. The reason for them doing that probably having something to do with them missing out on buying PI items for speculation (and massive profits) when they should have.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.06 21:03:00 - [8] Originally by: Grozen It doesn't matter how much has been purchased it matters only when its released on the market.For example i could potentially hold 5m gs but i might not sell it before it hits producers price. IT's that release that makes it risky.. Someone with a big enough supply could panic the market at any time. Fill all buy order in Jita would only take a couple of mil to do so. Then list at 5K.. Almost half that of everyone else. That is a possibility they might be hoping someone else will just buy out their stock so they can move on this low consumption product... When that happens someone MAY buy them and then list for 6K, I mean why not, 20% profit... That's the problem with having all of this spare inventory floating around. Every argument you can make for buying it is the same argument for NOT buying it. Amarr for Life
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.06 21:06:00 - [9] Originally by: Darthion Illys You shouldn't care too much about what SencneS and Shar Tegral says about the PI market atm, since they've been trolling pretty much every PI thread that has popped up on MD so far. The reason for them doing that probably having something to do with them missing out on buying PI items for speculation (and massive profits) when they should have. I'm not actually trolling, but contributing, which is something you appear to have missed in your post.. I've already made my billions off PI and I got out at the top of the market which has yet to see prices that high again. So I'm glad I did. Warning others about possible bad choices and giving them both sides of the story is contributing. What is you have done to this thread other then troll me and Shar?? Amarr for Life
Red Raider Caldari Airbourne Demons DeMoN's N AnGeL's	Posted - 2010.07.06 22:16:00 - [10] Volume may be statistically lower atm compared to pre-patch but that demand was based on pure fuel consumption which remains but has been supplemented by construction cost for higher tier components and end products. Without knowing how much PI built material is reaching the market estimating how long stockpiles will last isn't exactly accurate. It also takes into account that those stockpiles will not be converted directly by the holders into higher end goods if the profit for doing so is right. Someone willing to hold the goods for months at a time might not have a problem dedicating their account(s) PI capacity to refining as they have already shown a willingness to patiently hold goods to turn a profit. It all comes down to speculation one way or another but the overwhelming consensus is that Vilgan is basically correct from what I can see. The market will take a very long time to stabilize IMHO though so speculating will be a lot of fun for the rest of the year. What I am really curious about is the insurance changes and how that is going to effect mineral prices over the course of the year. Re-adjusting the payout based on the average price of the mineral basket means there is theoretically no IER anymore so where is the free market going to take us from there?
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.06 22:59:00 - [11] Originally by: Red Raider It all comes down to speculation one way or another but the overwhelming consensus is that Vilgan is basically correct from what I can see. The market will take a very long time to stabilize IMHO though so speculating will be a lot of fun for the rest of the year. I'm not saying he is out right wrong, the theory is correct, but Guidance Systems is wrongly applied in my opinion.. While usage for high-end components is something you can't judge from sales volume, it's not required much. Which actually supports why I think it's risky.. GS's are a P3 item, you only need 6 of them to make a single P4 item. And it's ONE P4 Item I might add.. Recursive Computing Module There is a small issue here - Recursive Computing Module is one of the lowest consumed P4 items. About the only thing it has going for it is the fact it's used in Cyno arrays. But it's uses lightly compared to other P4 items. Large Pos 18 Medium Pos 9 Small Pos 4 Capital Ship array 100 X-Large Ship array 5 Advance Large Ship array 5 Jump Bridge 5 Advanced Medium Ship Assembly Array 5 Large Ship Assembly Array 5 Medium Ship Assembly Array 5 Small Ship Assembly Array 5 Subsystem Assembly Array 5 Experimental Laboratory 5 Mobile Laboratory 5 Advance Small Ship Assembly Array 5 Advance Moble Laboratory 8 Capital Ship Maintenance Array 50 Rapid Equipment Assembly Array 3 Drug Lab 4 Equipment Assembly Array 3 Cynosural Generator Array 6 Cynosural System Jammer 6 That's it.. That's all.. Mobile Laboratory, and Large POS are probably the biggest volume sellers.. If I wanted to build one of each of these all I'd need is 690 Guidance Systems.. Well with 110mil + of these yet unsold, that's a LOT of each of these systems. I always look at what people say analyse it for myself, and I just think Guidance Systems is simple too risky to get in on it. With it's low consumption at EVERY level, and the massive inventory, it'll be a year before the only supply these things come from is Planets. Amarr for Life
mental maverick Duty. Duty. Private Security	Posted - 2010.07.06 23:09:00 - [12] Originally by: SencneS ...GS's are a P3 item, you only need 6 of them to make a single P4 item. And it's ONE P4 Item I might add.. Recursive Computing Module... It's also used for t2 mods, can't remember which by heart though...
Vilgan Mazran Aperture Harmonics K162	Posted - 2010.07.06 23:27:00 - [13] Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 06/07/2010 23:27:12 Originally by: SencneS GS's are a P3 item, you only need 6 of them to make a single P4 item. And it's ONE P4 Item I might add.. Recursive Computing Module <lots of stuff about how many POS structures use RCMs> Guidance Systems are also used in (# used in each to the right): Acolyte II Blueprint 1 Berserker II Blueprint 4 Bouncer II Blueprint 3 Caldari Navy Ballistic Control System Blueprint 5 Curator II Blueprint 3 Garde II Blueprint 3 Hammerhead II Blueprint 2 Heavy Armor Maintenance Bot II Blueprint 4 Heavy Shield Maintenance Bot II Blueprint 4 Hobgoblin II Blueprint 1 Hornet II Blueprint 1 Infiltrator II Blueprint 2 Khanid Navy Ballistic Control System Blueprint 5 Light Armor Maintenance Bot II Blueprint 1 Light Shield Maintenance Bot II Blueprint 1 Medium Armor Maintenance Bot II Blueprint 3 Medium Shield Maintenance Bot II Blueprint 3 Ogre II Blueprint 4 Praetor II Blueprint 4 Republic Fleet Ballistic Control System Blueprint 5 Valkyrie II Blueprint 2 Vespa II Blueprint 2 Warden II Blueprint 3 Warrior II Blueprint 1 Wasp II Blueprint 4 Between just the Forge and Verge Vendor, about 1 million guidance systems per day were sold/consumed back in April well before PI was solid enough for GS speculation. That's just the amount needed for the T2 production before the new PI based demand is added to that. So yes, the ~150 mil GS sold will take a bit before they are all consumed. This is why they are still 7-8k and not 20k like robotics (and robotics still has big stockpiles remaining too). However, the stockpiles won't last forever and GS has absolutely nowhere to go but up. This is very much unlike your pet P2, enriched uranium, which has nowhere to go but down.
mechtech SRS Industries SRS.	Posted - 2010.07.06 23:36:00 - [14] Originally by: SencneS I'm not saying he is out right wrong, the theory is correct, but Guidance Systems is wrongly applied in my opinion.. While usage for high-end components is something you can't judge from sales volume, it's not required much. Which actually supports why I think it's risky.. GS's are a P3 item, you only need 6 of them to make a single P4 item. And it's ONE P4 Item I might add.. Recursive Computing Module I always look at what people say analyse it for myself, and I just think Guidance Systems is simple too risky to get in on it. With it's low consumption at EVERY level, and the massive inventory, it'll be a year before the only supply these things come from is Planets. Guidance systems are used in T2 manufacturing of drones as well. If you go take a look at the total consumption pre-patch of GS in ALL regions combined, not just the forge, you will be surprised. I don't see how people say investing in a P3 at 500 isk (or even a few 1000 isk weeks after the patch) was risky. These things are used in T2 unlike most PI goods, which means they should go at a slight premium and with a much higher volume to boot. These things will go up to 20-50k, and they'll arrive there much faster than people expect. Think months not years.
Grozen Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.	Posted - 2010.07.06 23:41:00 - [15] the forge is pretty much the only region to buy enough gs for your producing needs the other regions are empty. knowledge is power
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.06 23:45:00 - [16] Originally by: Vilgan Mazran However, the stockpiles won't last forever. That's a given, but you're recommending people get in to it now when you know it could be at least six months before those stock piles are depleted. It's bad form and stinks of someone who just wants to sell out their own inventory now and have someone else have to wait out the six month to get a decent return on it. Originally by: Vilgan Mazran This is very much unlike your pet P2, enriched uranium, which has nowhere to go but down. I didn't say I recommend anyone buying EU at all.. They would be stupid if they did. That doesn't stop the fact that it was selling for near 20K for over a week. Like it or not, that was an opportunity I missed and wished I didn't. Just to make it clear here... ----> I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANYONE BUY ENRICHED URANIUM <---- It's too expensive now, and I agree 100% it's going down in price. It was a missed boat and one I wish I had got on, that's all it is to me. Unlike GS's which I did get in on at the NPC level. The problem is so did everyone else. I'm glad I sold out of my small stock and getting only netted a almost 1B profit while I could because I'll be damned if I had to wait 6 months plus to see a bigger return. Even right now I'd only net about 1.15B. Not worth it as I've made more then 150mil with the profits I made from GS's looking at other items. That's the problem, you're thinking long term but applying it incorrectly. Now is not the time to get into GS's. The time is when people start dumping the millions of units because they are sick of waiting for it to get any higher. I'm not saying it will NEVER be a good investment, just 10K a unit right now, screw that.. It'll go down a little or even level out, when it levels out between now and 6 months from now, somewhere in there it'll drive as people just want to sell out. THAT is the time to get in on GS speculation. Not now when it's slowly climbing jumping back and forth.. That's HORRIBLE advice. Amarr for Life
Grozen Caldari Titan Core New Eden Research.	Posted - 2010.07.06 23:49:00 - [17] P3 10k?Kinda insane considering the effort you need to produce it.There are tons of spreadsheets around and the lowest possible produce price i've seen is 45k. knowledge is power
Vilgan Mazran Aperture Harmonics K162	Posted - 2010.07.07 00:24:00 - [18] So I suggest 5 things to consider, warn that GS is a long term investment, and also say "(which could be 6-9 months)" in the OP, and I am giving bad advice because it will take a long time for the stockpiles to empty? Tbh, the main advice I was giving was to examine the profitability spreadsheet to see which are furthest from equilibrium and the eve uni link to see which products require multiple planets. I even state that at the end of the unedited OP to remind everyone to look at the links and do the math for themselves. GS is one of 5 things I consider a good investment with the caveat that it will be 6-9 months before we see the real value of guidance systems. If 6-9 months is too long of a timeframe, wouldn't someone skip GS and consider the others? Or heck, look at the sheets and make independent decisions. Or invest in something else completely. Its really not that hard. Altho, apparently it is for some hence the post to give some basic guidelines/suggestions.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.07 00:52:00 - [19] The others I don't have a problem with. Here is the problem I have in a nutshell. This type of thread is geared towards people who probably didn't get into it, so they are late, these people are not good speculators/manipulators otherwise they would have already got into it. So they probably don't have much to invest in the first place. Lets assume they have 1B isk to burn on this. What you're suggesting is... Invest now, and in 6-9 months it'll be worth 2-3 times as much. Which would be 3B say.. But that's 2B profit in 6 months, that's 330mil a month. The rest of the stuff you suggest will make that in less time. Sorry for pointing that out, just as you want to give some people some advice, I'm giving some advice as well. 200% profit in 6 months is horrible compared to most other PI out there. Apart from the crashing few, a much larger selection of PI will make 200% in a shorter amount of time. I've listened to what you have to say. So I give you a quote I like to take a heart often. It's a little altered but the point in the same:- "Acknowledge a man someone which is standing center stage and advocating at the top of their lungs that which you would spend a life time advocating against at the top of yours." You think GS's are good, you've given your reasons. I think It's bad, and I've given you my reasons. I have no problem with most of what you've said, just a small problem with toting something which I consider will be too long of an investment when so many others will perform better in the same time frame. Amarr for Life
Darthion Illys Amarr Tyrans d'Or Tyrans d'0r	Posted - 2010.07.07 02:46:00 - [20] Originally by: SencneS This type of thread is geared towards people who probably didn't get into it, so they are late, these people are not good speculators/manipulators otherwise they would have already got into it. That's not necessarily true. I got in "late" on PI speculation, and I'm currently looking at 20+ billions of profit already, with current market buy order prices. The incorrect conclusion which a lot of PI nay-sayers seem to come to, is that just because NPC prices were significantly lower than the currently unseeded PI items are, that PI speculation isn't worth it at the moment out of comparison to the NPC prices. Anyone who has the faintest clue, and a logical sense of reasoning, realises that the supply dwarves under the current demand, and that an equalibrium will only be achieved at higher prices, where PI actually becomes worthwhile. Nearly all PI items are still underpriced. Any underpriced item is a good investment for future profit. If you have the capital to stockpile it now, to actually make it worthwhile, is an entirely different aspect.
Vilgan Mazran Aperture Harmonics K162	Posted - 2010.07.07 02:55:00 - [21] Edited by: Vilgan Mazran on 07/07/2010 02:55:22 Originally by: SencneS Lets assume they have 1B isk to burn on this. What you're suggesting is... Invest now, and in 6-9 months it'll be worth 2-3 times as much. Which would be 3B say.. But that's 2B profit in 6 months, that's 330mil a month. The rest of the stuff you suggest will make that in less time. 2 things that speak in GS favor imo: 1) Larger return overall. Sure, the silicate glass will hit 100% return faster than GS. However, it will cap out at something like 5-6k (maybe 7-8k but it WILL top out). So once it hits that value... now you have to liquidate it, take your 100% profit, and find something else to invest in that will get you similar returns for minimal effort. GS takes longer to return 100% but then it will keep going. 100% then 200% then 300% and maybe even 400% before it caps out. Sure, it takes a lot longer but that's also no effort expended. 2) More guaranteed return. The difference between silicate glass/nanite repair paste/consumer electronics/etc and what the general consensus predicts its eventual price will be is only about 100%. Right now its somewhere around 2.5k and will likely slow down around 5k. That's such a huge margin that its extremely unlikely it wouldn't go up. However, there is a small % chance you could lose money. Its virtually impossible to lose money on GS buying at 8-9k. They have to go up. How far and how fast is debateable, but P3s settling below 8k would mean: P2 would be going for just over 1k and control towers would be selling for 60 mil. Aka, theoretically possible but not practically so. Note, I'm not saying GS are superior. Just pointing out the advantages, as you've already done a sufficient job (imo) of pointing out what you consider the disadvantages to be.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.07 04:07:00 - [22] There is always the Akita T approach too :) Recursive Computing Module, requires three P3 items. One being Guidance Systems. But what makes up Guidance Systems? Water-Cooled CPU and Transmitter, Transmitters where an NPC item which had inventory not as much as GS's though only a few million so it's no impact really. Water-Cooled CPU's are made up of Aqueous Liquids/Water and Base Metals/Reactive Metals. Aqueous Liquids is the most abundant P0 item, available on 6 of the 8 planet types. Base Metals is is the second most abundant P0 item, available on 5 of the 8 planet types. Also the P2 WC-CPU item can be produced on 3 different planets. I've personally harvested both Aqueous Liquids and Base Metals and I can say they come in BIG numbers in highsec. It's the Tritanium, and Pyerite of the Planet Supply Chain. Getting Water-Cooled CPU will not be a problem in High-sec. Transmitter are made up of Plasmoids and Chiral Structures. Both are available on 2 and 3 planets, which bring them into the rarer category. This is where GS's price will reside, as WC-CPUs don't stand a chance. However, like WC-CPUs they can be produced on multiple planets. Although I'll give it the benefit that they are the "Rarest" planets. Lava and Plasma, so these will naturally have a lower availability chain. However you have to recognize that as a single person, I could produce WC-CPU and Transmitters in bulk on 4 planets. Leaving 1 planet left to produce GS's.. Although this is not likely. Actually it would probably be more like this... 1 Planet pumping out WC-CPUs 4 Pumping out Transmitters. The one pumping out WC-CPUs is also converting the imported Transmitters into GS's. Now I don't have any Lava planets on my at the moment, but I do have a Plasma Planet. Very close to Jita. Here is what an extractor for both could produce given the 5 hour option. First off Suspended Plasma - This Planets Specialty. The popular 5 hour Option produces, 1,405 units per extractor. Non-CS Crystal - This Planets worst item. The popular 5 hour Option produces, 675 units per extractor. This is interesting because 1 Plasma extractor and 2 Crystal extractors will almost feed enough to produce 5 Transmitters an hours. So the combo is really 2 Plasma and 4 Crystal Extractors, pumping into 1 each Processor per hour (With a decent amount of left overs) Probably every 2 hours producing 3 hours worth. This is great because this planet can support, 2 Setups like this. 4 Plasma Extractors 8 Crystal Extractors 4 Basic Processors 2 Advance Processors. This will produce 10 Transmitters an hour. Which is how many you need to produce 3 Guidance Systems. So this planet has the potential to produce 2,160 Guidance Systems worth of material every month. Conservative me says, it'll produce 1,440. (missing 1 8 hours cycle every day) Lets assume I am on top of my game, if I run that across 4 planets, that's 8,640. Now this is just a few jumps from Jita deep in high-sec. Now you're right I didn't do the WC-CPU part because lets face it, that will easily match production given what they are. So how much is that really worth? Well if we go with PLEX Price ONLY of 300mil. One Character producing lets say 8,000 GS's a month, across 3 characters (Like PLEX harvesters would) that's 24,000 units. Remember This is ONE account. And that's not even checking the Lava planets 300mil / 24,000 = 12,500 ISK a unit. Which is oddly enough this is a little lower then what I kind had in mind for all P3 to be honest, about 15K a unit is what I'm expecting. From a PLEX harvester point of view they would also be harvesting Datacore so it's hard for me to see GS's (A low consumption item) peek beyond this in the end. I mean one Account producing 24,000 units a month is enough to produce 4,000 large POSes for example. That's a lot.. I'm actually resting my case right there, I've had my say so enjoy the rest of the thread :) Thanks for being accommodating at least. Amarr for Life
Janice Polito Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited	Posted - 2010.07.07 05:23:00 - [23] Originally by: SencneS I'm actually resting my case right there, I've had my say so enjoy the rest of the thread :) Thanks for being accommodating at least. Long, flawed post you got there. Here's the short version: Whoosh
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.07 05:46:00 - [24] Originally by: Janice Polito Originally by: SencneS I'm actually resting my case right there, I've had my say so enjoy the rest of the thread :) Thanks for being accommodating at least. Long, flawed post you got there. Here's the short version: Whoosh LOL If an analytical post of a single planets potential capacity is flawed then WHOOSH to you too.. Amarr for Life
Red Raider Caldari Airbourne Demons DeMoN's N AnGeL's	Posted - 2010.07.07 20:56:00 - [25] Originally by: SencneS Originally by: Janice Polito Originally by: SencneS I'm actually resting my case right there, I've had my say so enjoy the rest of the thread :) Thanks for being accommodating at least. Long, flawed post you got there. Here's the short version: Whoosh LOL If an analytical post of a single planets potential capacity is flawed then WHOOSH to you too.. Ill bite. Lets start with this flawed premise as if it is the largest consumer of GS's even if it was correct. Originally by: SencneS I mean one Account producing 24,000 units a month is enough to produce 4,000 large POSes for example. That's a lot.. 24,000 / 18 = 1333.33 So off by eh a few thousand without even mentioning pre-speculation demand, PI demand(not really anyways as everyone knows Large POS's will not be the lions share) and the perfect scenario of farming based on a person with no life. Hell you basically ignored supply and demand entirely all the while stating that half of the base components are hard as hell to come by and then coming up with some concept that the price of goods are based off of the price of a PLEX? I am not even close to a pro-trader and that sounds more like the ramblings of a mad man than an analytical position.
SencneS Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks	Posted - 2010.07.07 22:01:00 - [26] Originally by: Red Raider Ill bite. Lets start with this flawed premise as if it is the largest consumer of GS's even if it was correct. Originally by: SencneS I mean one Account producing 24,000 units a month is enough to produce 4,000 large POSes for example. That's a lot.. 24,000 / 18 = 1333.33 So off by eh a few thousand without even mentioning pre-speculation demand, PI demand(not really anyways as everyone knows Large POS's will not be the lions share) and the perfect scenario of farming based on a person with no life. Hell you basically ignored supply and demand entirely all the while stating that half of the base components are hard as hell to come by and then coming up with some concept that the price of goods are based off of the price of a PLEX? I am not even close to a pro-trader and that sounds more like the ramblings of a mad man than an analytical position. You know what I'm glad you responded because it showed an error in math, one which even you didn't see 24,000 GS's a month would produce 4,000 Recursive Computing Module, not 4,000 POSes. In case you want to check for yourself it it requires 6 to make 1 RCM.. So 24,000 / 6 = 4,000. I neglected to go the extra step and divide that by 18. Which is the actual amount of POSes 1 account could produce for. The answer is 222 Large POSes per month, every month. As for the rest, PLEX is a good bases to go off as any because there is real life reasons behind it. If you're going to be producing these things as a source of passive income, which a lot of people are going to do with PI. If I wanted to exclusively use PI as my PLEX generator and choose GS's as the object I wanted to make, because you all this talk about them going through the roof would attract that line of thinking. Then how much do I need to sell them for?? The answer, 12,500 ISK each. It also points out that GS's will most likely not go below 12,500 ISK. It's just a base line, that's pretty much all it is. If anything it shows that the current price is a little too low, but it's getting close. (Don't worry, finished the statement in the previous post about POSes per month) Amarr for Life
mental maverick Duty. Duty. Private Security	Posted - 2010.07.07 22:52:00 - [27] Originally by: SencneS As for the rest, PLEX is a good bases to go off as any because there is real life reasons behind it. If you're going to be producing these things as a source of passive income, which a lot of people are going to do with PI. If I wanted to exclusively use PI as my PLEX generator and choose GS's as the object I wanted to make, because you all this talk about them going through the roof would attract that line of thinking. Then how much do I need to sell them for?? The answer, 12,500 ISK each. It also points out that GS's will most likely not go below 12,500 ISK. It's just a base line, that's pretty much all it is. If anything it shows that the current price is a little too low, but it's getting close. I think you are way off estimating GS at 12,5k. Basing it off PLEX prices just don't work imo. Rather look at how much active time actually needs to be spent producing those GS and compare it to other professions in EVE. I think you'll find that there is no way in hell anybody is going to spend that time if they can spend the same amount of time doing missions and earn the same or more per active hour spent. Missions require less knowledge and no set times to log in and restart reactors. PI isn't as passive as a lot of people seem to think, there is a reason its called a click fest. I know, I've tried it and I will never do it ever again. Especially not for 12,5k per GS.
JitaPriceChecker2	Posted - 2010.07.07 23:00:00 - [28] LOL guidance systems are used for drones. Drones die or got lost all the time.
Janice Polito Tech 3 Hotsauce Limited	Posted - 2010.07.07 23:41:00 - [29] Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 LOL guidance systems are used for drones. Drones die or got lost all the time. This. Claiming GS are a "low-consumption" P3 is straight up wrong. GS have a few other uses, as well.
pmchem Minmatar GoonWaffe Goonswarm Federation	Posted - 2010.07.08 00:07:00 - [30] Originally by: Janice Polito Originally by: JitaPriceChecker2 LOL guidance systems are used for drones. Drones die or got lost all the time. This. Claiming GS are a "low-consumption" P3 is straight up wrong. GS have a few other uses, as well. Yeah, it's good to invest in items with secondary uses. It makes GS a good P3. That's also why a P2 like Consumer Electronics is so good. Consumer Electronics has over 1,300 uses in BPO research (time+efficiency) and is also used in creation of a POS fuel. High natural demand (and it's still underpriced compared to its components).

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