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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.08 18:44:00 -
[1]
Ever since Dominion nerfed the most expensive moon minerals, most T2 prices have been in gradual decline. Now, with the exploding PI prices, we can reasonably expect that there will be some recovery or increase in prices as POS will be more expensive to maintain.
But how much, and how soon? To keep an eye on developments I have constructed a very simple index of T2 prices. It consists of the price of 100 different items (ammo, drones, modules) and I simply count how many of them are trending downwards and upwards.
The parameter I used is the red 5-day trend line, and I can apply the exact same measurement to either 10-day, 1-month, 3-month or 6-month target periods. The question is simply: are prices going up or down within those periods?
I will take these measurements every few days from now on.
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.08 18:46:00 -
[2]
Edited by: Cista2 on 08/07/2010 19:19:16
July 8 data
I indexed the 10-day, month, 3-month and 6-month periods. i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 44 % of items going down, 56 % going up
Past month: 52 % going down, 48 % going up
Past 3 months: 56 % going down. 44 % going up
Past 6 months: 66 % going down, 34 % going up
The tendency is clear, although some statistical uncertainty must be taken into account, especially on the 10-day measure. But nevertheless, in the past 10 days on the market, more T2 items have increased in price than gone down. It looks like the downward spiral that T2 items have been under has already been broken.
Now remains to be seen how powerful the change will be, if we will get a serious inflation in the weeks and months to come.
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Zea Aestria
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Posted - 2010.07.08 19:40:00 -
[3]
 Originally by: Cista2
100 different items (ammo, drones, modules)
Is there a reason that there are no T2 ships included in the index?
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Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2010.07.08 19:42:00 -
[4]
end of july.
knowledge is power |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.08 19:56:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Zea Aestria
Originally by: Cista2
100 different items (ammo, drones, modules)
Is there a reason that there are no T2 ships included in the index?
There are several reasons - one of them is that I would think ship prices were slightly slower to react - there are fewer producers, and these might have stocked up on fuels.
So if we start to see a strong trend in the index as I have composed it, it would indicate that the same would happen with ships, with delay. These are just my speculations ofc, in reality I know next to nothing about industry.
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Supervisor Grammel
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Posted - 2010.07.08 20:09:00 -
[6]
Ships will follow. E.g., I estimate 700-750M pricetag on Golems within two months time (current price is about 510M sell and 490 buy). Not the investment of the century but certainly a decent payout for such a short period of time.
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Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
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Posted - 2010.07.08 21:52:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Zenon Mu on 08/07/2010 21:53:00
To add a different aspect: this is the advanced mineral basket and T2 component basket (ships only) history, based on jita volume and 5-day average on the reporting date. One can assume that advanced minerals and, a bit delayed, T2 components have reached a floor, as the market has now adapted to the post-Dominion situation.
Enter Tyrannis, where POS fuel makes up for 15% (Nanotransistors) to 85% (for racial carbides) of production costs, logistics not included. The estimate of 530k ISK per cycle is from today, and POS fuel is expected to continue to rise. Right now a racial carbide complex reaction yields between -1% and 6%. The last number is an estimation for the case that PI2/PI3 POS fuel doubles in price.
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.08 21:59:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Zenon Mu
minerals and, a bit delayed, T2 components have reached a floor, as the market has now adapted to the post-Dominion situation.
Awesome graph, thank you very much. My head is spinning with the consequences this will have on the trading profession.
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.11 07:19:00 -
[9]
July 11 data
I indexed the 10-day period, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 41 % of items going down, 59 % going up
Compared to the last index value of 56 % of items going up, this indicates that inflation is accelerating.
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Mini Tee
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Posted - 2010.07.11 07:33:00 -
[10]
Thanks for the heads up, time to scan the market for long entries.
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Ray McCormack
Nordar Innovations.
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Posted - 2010.07.11 07:37:00 -
[11]
You need to analyse both cost and sale prices, they're not mutually exclusive when interpreting 'inflation' trends.
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.11 07:56:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Ray McCormack
You need to analyse both cost and sale prices, they're not mutually exclusive when interpreting 'inflation' trends.
I will leave the actual definition of "inflation" to the economists. For me as a trader, I am just interested in what happens to the price tag of a product, if I buy it today and stock it.
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Ray McCormack
Nordar Innovations.
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Posted - 2010.07.11 08:07:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Cista2
Originally by: Ray McCormack
You need to analyse both cost and sale prices, they're not mutually exclusive when interpreting 'inflation' trends.
I will leave the actual definition of "inflation" to the economists. For me as a trader, I am just interested in what happens to the price tag of a product, if I buy it today and stock it.
Depends what you're banking on, cost or price inflation. If it's cost, you may as well be invested in the raw materials. But you won't know until you analyse both.
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Terrigal
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Posted - 2010.07.11 23:23:00 -
[14]
One aspect of T2 production youve forgotten is that data core prices have gone through the roof thats going to hurt the T2 market significantly, prices i think will eventually go through the roof because once the pos fuel is no longer seeded it will be difficult to keep your pos's online this is due to the lack of take up in PI buy the greater player base.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2010.07.11 23:44:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Terrigal
One aspect of T2 production youve forgotten is that data core prices have gone through the roof
Odd as the 2 datacores I use have dropped by about 25% since Tyrannis hit.
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EvilCheez
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Posted - 2010.07.12 07:49:00 -
[16]
Edited by: EvilCheez on 12/07/2010 07:52:51
Quote:
Depends what you're banking on, cost or price inflation. If it's cost, you may as well be invested in the raw materials. But you won't know until you analyse both.
I Don't understand the distinction, but will look it up. What I suspect will happen first with mooongoo is that raws will go down at the same time finished product goes up. As people shut down operations the will be selling stocks of raw materials and putting a short term flood on the market.
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Ray McCormack
Nordar Innovations.
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Posted - 2010.07.12 08:16:00 -
[17]
Originally by: EvilCheez
I Don't understand the distinction, but will look it up.
Are costs increasing, or is the selling price increasing? Whilst they may be driven by the same forces and ultimately effect each other, if you're investing in a finished product it would be wise to analyse why the price is going up as a different strategy could reap better rewards.
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.14 06:37:00 -
[18]
Edited by: Cista2 on 14/07/2010 06:39:02
July 14 data
I indexed the 10-day and 1-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago and 1 month ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 40 % of items going down, 60 % going up
Past month: 43 % going down, 57 % going up
Conclusion: T2 inflation is now dramatic, also when measured over a full month (57 % going up compared to 48 % going up in the index just 6 days ago).
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Fumitsugu Sylwia
Guristech
One Stop Research
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Posted - 2010.07.14 10:37:00 -
[19]
Edited by: Fumitsugu Sylwia on 14/07/2010 10:38:13
Cista, may I ask what were the selection criteria for your shortlist of t2 items?
ed. Out of interest, are there any figures flying around that indicate what percentage of T2 (both copy and invent) is made in NPC slots and not POS slots?
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.14 10:46:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Fumitsugu Sylwia
Edited by: Fumitsugu Sylwia on 14/07/2010 10:38:13
Cista, may I ask what were the selection criteria for your shortlist of t2 items?
Three criteria I can think of:
1) Variation of items (ammo, drones, modules)
2) Ease of indexing made me pick certain groups
3) I avoided ships as mentioned before, from a haunch that they might react slower to underlying inflation
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"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.17 14:52:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Cista2 on 17/07/2010 14:54:11
July 17 data:
I indexed the 10-day period, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 42 % of items going down, 58 % going up
Conclusion: Same pattern.
I am predicting that a fraction of 60 % of items going up is about max for the 10-day window in an inflation period. Week-to-week fluctuations will keep it that low. The 1-month or 3-month period could maybe arrive at a 70 % or 80 % fraction of items going up in price, but I am completely guessing that, only time will show.
Here is a link to a spreadsheet of the data I have collected so far (no graph yet).
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Thrasymachus TheSophist
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Posted - 2010.07.17 15:40:00 -
[22]
Edited by: Thrasymachus TheSophist on 17/07/2010 15:40:02
Originally by: Ray McCormack
Originally by: EvilCheez
I Don't understand the distinction, but will look it up.
Are costs increasing, or is the selling price increasing? Whilst they may be driven by the same forces and ultimately effect each other, if you're investing in a finished product it would be wise to analyse why the price is going up as a different strategy could reap better rewards.
In other words - WHY are the prices going up. Is it because the inputs have gotten more expensive ("cost push" inflation) or is it because the demand for a limited supply of goods has gone up ("demand pull" inflation).
Its a real economic concept, but I don't think it has much effect in Eve outside of the newest/best items and minerals, both of which are set by demand. Everything else's prices are pretty much set by costs of inputs, I'd imagine.
EDIT: ps - Great project, I hope you keep it up.
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Aurum Bellator
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Posted - 2010.07.18 13:49:00 -
[23]
Cista,
This is just a thought and forgive me if it's already been pointed out as I haven't read the whole thread. I do quite a bit of trading in tech 2 items and am very familiar with their price fluctuations.
In my experience, T2 item prices are not linear but rather bounce like a bouncy ball. What I mean by that is, they will slowly go down, down down and then someone in Jita realizes that the going price is too good, and buys up all the stock in the Forge, Lonetrek, and sometimes elsewhere, at which the price will spike and decline again, sometimes quickly sometimes more slowly.
So I don't know if you can find any enduring 'trends' with the type of historical data you are collecting. Probably the best sign of inflation or deflation is to try to look at 30-day lows and highs and see if, over several months, those points are increasing or decreasing.
Just some food for thought.
AUB
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.18 16:14:00 -
[24]
Originally by: Aurum Bellator
Probably the best sign of inflation or deflation is to try to look at 30-day lows and highs and see if, over several months, those points are increasing or decreasing.
It's just a matter of having a large enough sample so that random error is overcome. I am not expecting that randomness is done away with in every sample I am publishing here, but now it has consistently shown inflation occurring over a number of points in time.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Quantessa
Amarr
TOG Empire
DRACONIAN COVENANT
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Posted - 2010.07.18 16:25:00 -
[25]
Having a lot of different data points will also help make this data useful. (ie it's not just useful because it looks at 100 different products it's useful because this thread is accumulating a lot of data from different dates).
Good work Cista2, thanks.
********************************************
Jenkins! Chap with wings. Five rounds rapid.
********************************************
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Guilliman R
Gallente
PRO Space Hunters
HUNTER'S BROTHERHOOD
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Posted - 2010.07.18 17:20:00 -
[26]
EANM II's just sent up to 3mil a piece, they've been going up since tyranis, from like 500k to 3mil |
Mazen Alane
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Posted - 2010.07.18 18:04:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Guilliman R
EANM II's just sent up to 3mil a piece, they've been going up since tyranis, from like 500k to 3mil
Try harder 
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Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
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Posted - 2010.07.18 19:52:00 -
[28]
i honestly fail too see t2 going up atm. its mostly still down..
knowledge is power |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.20 14:56:00 -
[29]
Edited by: Cista2 on 20/07/2010 14:57:30
July 20 data:
I indexed the 10-day, 1-month and 3-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago, 1 month ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 47 % of items going down, 53 % going up
Past month: 37 % of items going down, 63 % going up
Past 3 months: 49 % of items going down, 51 % going up
Comments: Over the past week the increase in T2 prices has obviously stalled, perhaps as a swift response to the crashes in PI items? Should be interesting to see what happens next!
The tendency for inflation is very strong when seen over the 1-month period, which has the highest value I have measured for any period so far. And perhaps beginning to spill over into the 3-month period as well.
Here is a link to a spreadsheet of the data I have collected so far.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.23 07:54:00 -
[30]
July 23 data:
I indexed the 10-day period, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 48 % of items going down, 52 % going up
Comments: Prices are now stable on the short term, and this should also be reflected in the 1-month period next.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.26 08:59:00 -
[31]
July 26 data:
I indexed the 10-day and 1-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago and 1 month ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 53 % of items going down, 47 % going up
Past month: 34 % of items going down, 66 % going up
Comments: The 10-day index is now trending towards deflation, while the 1-month index has the strongest indication of inflation measured for any index period so far. It must be expected that the lack of price increase in the short term will spill over to the longer period next.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.07.29 07:29:00 -
[32]
July 29 data:
I indexed the 10-day period, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 57 % of items going down, 43 % going up
Comments: This is by far the lowest value that has been measured on a 10-day period. It now looks like the inflation period is going to cancel itself out.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.01 10:40:00 -
[33]
August 1 data:
I indexed all periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago, 1 month ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 56 % of items going down, 44 % going up
Past month: 31 % of items going down, 69 % going up
Past 3 months: 46 % of items going down, 54 % going up
Past 6 months: 51 % of items going down, 49 % going up
Comments: The 1-3 months indexes showed a higher inflation tendency than last time they were measured. The 69% value is the highest value measured so far. The contrasting low 10-day value indicates that inflation will not intensify.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Vasaczk
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Posted - 2010.08.03 00:24:00 -
[34]
Spaghetti chart with unlabled delta %'s imo 
In fact I might see if I can do one, you just use the csv dump from metrics?
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.04 08:38:00 -
[35]
August 4 data:
I indexed the 10-day period, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 60 % of items going down, 40 % going up
Comments: Once again the lowest value that has been measured on a 10-day period, indicating the current inflation period will be cancelled out.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom for traders / Hydra Investment Fund |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.07 07:28:00 -
[36]
August 7 data:
I indexed the 10-day and 1-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago and 1 month ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 58 % of items going down, 42 % going up
Past month: 44 % of items going down, 56 % going up
Comments: The post-Tyrannis inflation period is coming to an abrupt end.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.09 10:11:00 -
[37]
August 9 data:
I indexed the 10-day period, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 65 % of items going down, 35 % going up
Comments: I couldn't wait 3 days to take this measure. And as I was half expecting, it looks like T2 prices are now dropping like.... some heavy free-falling object 
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Ford Chicago
Einherjar Rising
Cry Havoc.
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Posted - 2010.08.09 17:14:00 -
[38]
Cista,
I find your methodology to be very weak because it is lacking scale and doesn't appear to take into account any market "noise". There is no scale on these numbers, so even if it is true that there is a downward trend, of what importance is it?
If the trend is .01 isk/week who cares?
If the trend is 1M isk/week it is clearly not sustainable, and thus it is an adjustment and not a trend.
What does your analysis look like if you allow for a 10% price buffer on each item?
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.09 17:46:00 -
[39]
Originally by: Ford Chicago
There is no scale on these numbers, so even if it is true that there is a downward trend, of what importance is it?
It's not ideal. However, noone is providing any scaled data, which is why I came up with this index. It is very easy for me to monitor. Someone else is welcome to provide a better dataset, meanwhile this is the best we have.
My index is a measure of 100 items. I can make the assumption that there is a normal distribution of the *range* of change within the sample within a given week. If this assumption holds then the measure of *number* of items going up or down is also a measure of the scale of change per item.
In other words, if 75 % items are dropping, then the presumed normal distribution (bellshaped curve) of rate of change) will dictate that there is a good portion of the items that are dropping like crap, another portion that are more or less stable, and hardly any that will be increasing. Having all the items just decreasing by 1 % is extremely unlikely.
I haven't seen any hypothesis or data that would say that the rates are not normally distributed, and my measure should therefore be quite indicative.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Ford Chicago
Einherjar Rising
Cry Havoc.
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Posted - 2010.08.09 18:15:00 -
[40]
Edited by: Ford Chicago on 09/08/2010 18:16:05
Edited by: Ford Chicago on 09/08/2010 18:15:41
Cista2: "I haven't seen any hypothesis or data that would say that the rates are not normally distributed, and my measure should therefore be quite indicative."
But what would make you suppose a Gaussian distribution in the first place? Your measure is over 100 items, which is certainly better than 10, but not as good as 1000. And the measure that you take is an absolute, as opposed to a percentile change. That is, it makes a much bigger difference if a 10 isk mod goes up by 1 isk than if a 1M isk mod goes up by 1 isk.
I find your work and analysis interesting, and I'm not just trying to be jerk, but I don't think that it provides a complete picture of Eve market dynamics. I doubt you intended it as such, so please don't feel that I'm denigrating your analysis or efforts.
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Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.09 18:23:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Ford Chicago
please don't feel that I'm denigrating your analysis or efforts.
No problem, and if someone was publishing weekly data calculated from actual prices I would definitely follow that and let my index rest.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.13 16:33:00 -
[42]
August 13 data:
I indexed the 10-day and 1-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago and 1 month ago.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 72 % of items going down, 28 % going up
Past month: 51 % of items going down, 49 % going up
Comments: I would have sworn the 10-day index could not show such an extreme result. This could be the beginning of a very bad period for T2 - except for consumers 
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.08.25 10:37:00 -
[43]
August 25 data:
I indexed all periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago, 1 month ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 60 % of items going down, 40 % going up
Past month: 61 % of items going down, 39 % going up
Past 3 months: 45 % of items going down, 55 % going up
Past 6 months: 51 % of items going down, 49 % going up
Comments: Gloomy. The good news is in the larger perspective, that prices post Tyrannis have remained higher than before (as seen in the 3-month measure) - this might soon transcend into the 6-months measure as well.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.09.08 10:27:00 -
[44]
Edited by: Cista2 on 08/09/2010 10:27:42
September 8 data:
I indexed the 10-day, 1-month and 3-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 10 days ago, 1 month ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past 10 days: 56 % of items going down, 44 % going up
Past month: 57 % of items going down, 43 % going up
Past 3 months: 39 % of items going down, 61 % going up
Comments: The most remarkable result here is that over the 3 months that cover the post-Tyrannis period, most items have increased in price (61 being the highest value measured for a 3-month period)
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.09.21 09:27:00 -
[45]
September 21 data:
I indexed the 1-month, 3-month and 6-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 1 month ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past month: 51 % of items going down, 49 % going up
Past 3 months: 40 % of items going down, 60 % going up
Past 6 months: 45 % of items going down, 55 % going up
Comments: Inflation has picked up again, and for the first time there is inflation trend on the 6-month data.
This was the last index with this exact set of items, next time I will be changing the items to correspond better with what I am trading in myself.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.09.30 06:52:00 -
[46]
Edited by: Cista2 on 30/09/2010 06:55:54
September 30 data:
I indexed the 1-month and 3-month periods, i.e. compared the price today with the price 1 month ago etc.
Within the 100 different items the following trends were seen:
Past month: 56 % of items going down, 44 % going up
Past 3 months: 44 % of items going down, 56 % going up
Comments: This was the first measure with the "improved" index with new items, including ships also. In as far as they are comparable, both the 1-month and 3-month values took a dip compared to 8 days ago.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.10.08 09:24:00 -
[47]
Still doing these from time to time. Today I made a measure over 6 months with the new index composition and it looks surprisingly bad, as seen in the link only 34 % of items have increased in price since before Tyrannis.
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"Signatures" chatroom / Hydra Fund / LLSE Stock Market |
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
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Posted - 2010.11.25 09:21:00 -
[48]
I haven't done one of these in a while. Today I was surprised to see that T2 prices have held up well, in fact over the past 3 months there has been overall inflation.
Link to the data collected.
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"Signatures" chatroom / LLSE Stock Market |
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