| Pages: [1] 2 :: one page |
| Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 0 post(s) |
Fitz VonHeise
Eye Bee Em
Stellar Defense Alliance
   |
Posted - 2010.07.08 20:34:00 -
[1]
(I'm not sure if others have mentioned this already and if so my apologies)
There is a lot of talk about specific items and where people think the costs will go and the profits that can be made from them. But no one has mentioned the long term effects on various industries that rely on materials produced by PI.
The cost of all the final products used by people who have POS's will be higher.
It seems like a LOT higher.
Yes people can now make there own fuel... but doing so does take a bit of time. And even if you do you need a lot of alts to make each fuel type and there are limited numbers of planets so the more people who are extracting the less each person will get.
All of these add up to fuel prices going up... and the small POS owner not able or willing to put up with the price/hassle of getting fuel for their POS. If this does happen then I think you will see a large number of people who have small corps with high sec POS's take them down... or just stop fueling them.
POS's will become too expensive to fuel in high sec for many.
(This is one possible outcome)
If this is true then there will be less POS's out there inventing T2 BPC's or making copies of BPC's: or manufacturing T3 or other items. This obviously would cause the price of these items to go up as well as other items that rely on whatever is done at POS's.
I can see one type of high sec ôopportunityö growth from this that I will not mention. 
Comments?
Any other long term global issues you see?
|
Thoraxe Rig
Gallente
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 20:42:00 -
[2]
If that's true, then the price of fuel should go down slightly due to less POS's being used.
The prices of fuel will come back down at some point.
|
Icanti
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 20:51:00 -
[3]
Or again, the market will just re-adjust as people then rush to put up POS's to profit from the increased prices.
|
Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:28:00 -
[4]
If fuel goes up too much in price, we'll have both fewer POS operating (thus decreased demand) and more people doing PI. Prices will fall, and maybe the POS go back up and maybe they don't.
It would be pleasing if Tyrannis resulted indirectly in the resurgence of research alliances.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:42:00 -
[5]
POS Fuel was one of my first concerns.. So I developed this...
I've made a copy and made this one public and editable. It pretty much tells you how much you need as well as if you are harvesting something you can enter your daily inventory and see how much you have and how much you need now.
I've been sold by someone that they planned on making 1 years worth of POS fuel from planets to see how long it would take. He used a Large POS numbers. And it took him 12 days to harvest and convert 1 years worth of oxygen. He is currently working on Coolant, has production setup pretty nice he claims he makes about 700 coolant a day. From what I see of his setup that's about right. So he'll be onto Enriched Uranium in... 100 days LOL If you take that amount and compare it to say Enriched Uranium, it'll take him about 55 days for a year supply.
Mechanical parts will take about 80 just for the Mechanical part usage. At the same rate Robotics will take almost 140 days.
So all up, 12+100+55+80+140= 387 days. Yeah I informed him it was a fruitless effort..
Actually given that information I wonder if CCP will be making adjustments. However I think this might be too much for one character, really need two running the same setups. I can see someone focusing on say just Mechanical parts, or JUST Coolant, take what is needed and sell the rest. Use the ISK from the sold items to purchase fuel.
There no doubt POS Fuel is going to cost POS's much more. Impact is pretty global.
Tech II and III will be directly effected, Tech II More so at the material level even.
Invention will, Copy and Invention Jobs will start to become more costly so people with Large POS up in high-sec. So they might downgrade to a Medium or even a Small. (This will invite more war decs) The increase will also see T2 go up in price as invention will go up. The other side of the coin is as things become thinner margins things like T2 BPOs will increase in price. Datacores will decrease as there is less demand. So will ICE Products.
Right now a Large POS will cost about 100mil more per month to run then before PI. That'll probably go up a little, that might be too rich for some people.
Amarr for Life |
Frenden Dax
Dax Acquisitions
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 21:52:00 -
[6]
 Originally by: SencneS
I can see someone focusing on say just Mechanical parts, or JUST Coolant, take what is needed and sell the rest. Use the ISK from the sold items to purchase fuel.
This is what I see 0.0 alliances doing, especially the ones without decent moons. I know that some 'nationalized' many planets in their space as soon as PI went live.
|
Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:00:00 -
[7]
Don't forget the price spike after a few months, when due to arthritical index fingers PI comes to a sudden and abrupt halt.
|
Serious Stare
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:05:00 -
[8]
Originally by: SencneS
PI stuff...
Was this someone making the fuel in high-sec?
I recently made an excursion to a C4 w-system with enough different planets to make all of the fuel types. I was more than able to create enough fuel to keep the large POS running from 23-hour cycles. With 5 hour cycles, I could easily create 2-3 days of fuel each day.
This was with all planetary skills at level 4. I was the only one making fuel in this endeavor.
|
Cista2
Hydra Investment Fund
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:09:00 -
[9]
According to my primitive index, T2 inflation is already here. More items have increased their price than the opposite over the past 10 days.
This is incredibly exciting. Since I got my first half billion isk, and my first trade bond, I have only ever experienced deflation in the T2 economy, and thus I have made my petty fortune through exhausting daytrade. Inflation means I can turn my whole business on its head, and the perspectives for slow-trade profitability are mindboggling.
-----------------------
"Signatures" trader chatroom / Hydra Investment Fund |
Vasaczk
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:19:00 -
[10]
Swings and roundabouts baby.
What you are talking about is price discovery.
At some point the market (if it's working reasonably well) will discover a long term price that represents the motivations and desires of the community as a whole.
I.E. in a simplistic example say all the community cares about is cheap t2 modules for the ships they're losing to pirates (and t2 modules for pirates).
> T2 prices will remain high due to high demand
> T2 prices will be moderated by new people entering the lucrative T2 production industry
> PoS fuels will be in high demand due to players in T2 production space
> PoS fuel prices will be moderated by people entering the lucrative PI industry
> PI industry is flexible and has very low barriers to entry, expect producers focussing on every single aspect of the supply chain (P0 -> P4)
> T2 prices rise and fall in the short term due to flucuations and lags in the loop, long term prices will be discovered that reasonably well reflect the following:
- The marginal effort required to produce PI raw material
- The marginal effort required to process PI raw material into end-product PI goods
- The marginal effort required to build and maintain a T2 producing PoS
PI may or may not hurt or cripple some current PoS owners, but all the price discovery cares about is the marginal PoS's. As a current PoS owner you have to evaluate whether or not you want to put in the extra effort to keep your PoS running.
|
Varo Jan
Caravanserai Consulting
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:39:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Fitz VonHeise
POS's will become too expensive to fuel in high sec for many.
(This is one possible outcome)
Unnecessarily alarmist. You of all people will know that POSs require ice products as well as PI products - and that ice products have trended down - and that ice products make up most of the fuel bill. I'll grant you that small and medium POSs are more vulnerable to PI price changes.
POS owners will just work smarter.
Quote:
The cost of all the final products used by people who have POS's will be higher.
It seems like a LOT higher.
 There's too much wishful thinking going on at the moment, and more than enough people trying to manipulate PI material prices up. May work in the short term. Won't work in the long term.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.08 22:47:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Serious Stare
Originally by: SencneS
PI stuff...
Was this someone making the fuel in high-sec?
I recently made an excursion to a C4 w-system with enough different planets to make all of the fuel types. I was more than able to create enough fuel to keep the large POS running from 23-hour cycles. With 5 hour cycles, I could easily create 2-3 days of fuel each day.
This was with all planetary skills at level 4. I was the only one making fuel in this endeavor.
Yes... I told him he is wasting his time... He could make something much more profitable and BUY a years worth..
Amarr for Life |
menacemyth
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 05:53:00 -
[13]
Me and a friend were just talking about this today. POS fuels are definitely going to continue to rise. Of course this will impact T2 and T3 prices, and of course balance out when people pull their pos's down.
Whether that happens before or after the first major correction to PI prices, I can't speculate. As stockpiles of some T2 items deplete, the demand for T1's will double or triple in some cases. Select T2's will spike and their respective T3's will climb until it's once again profitable to make them.
This will impact POS fuels as well as players begin to produce other more profitable commodities.
So I anticipate 2 or 3 upward corrections POS fuels and T2 prices.
Alternatively, I don't expect T3 stockpiles to deplete anytime soon. Players with stockpiles may sell or buy artifically large volumes, but very few of those are actually being used to produce T4s. Look at the volume of their T4s. At certain prices, players will unload their stockpiles to make their return, but it will take a long time for them to be consumed toward production.
|
Grozen
Caldari
Titan Core
New Eden Research.
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 05:58:00 -
[14]
Somehow i'm seeing a lot more prices falling in t2 instead of climbing.
knowledge is power |
Companion Trollin
You are going too fast
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 06:12:00 -
[15]
I'm betting on a more likely scenario - PI prices spike in the short term while in the longer term all of the macro miners write PI clicking, exporting and hauling macros.
♥
Originally by: CCP Shadow
Off-topic posts dealing with sexual orientation have been removed. Please keep this discussion on-topic.
Thanks.
-- Shadow
|
menacemyth
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 07:22:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Companion Trollin
I'm betting on a more likely scenario - PI prices spike in the short term while in the longer term all of the macro miners write PI clicking, exporting and hauling macros.
/supported
|
Jagga Spikes
Minmatar
Spikes Chop Shop
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 08:56:00 -
[17]
i have a single character (all skills at L3) in 0.3 system (plasma/lava/barren/gas) producing just about enough to fuel large pos per hour, at 23-hour depletion. with slightly better skills it would be full rate with extra available for market. atm, i produce surplus enriched uranium and am short on coolant. with importing water and/or oxygen, it would be self-sustained.
extrapolating to high-sec, it would probably take 2 similar skilled characters to cover needs of one large tower.
________________________________
: Forum Bore 'Em : Foamy The Squirrel - [jedi handwave] "There is no spoon." |
Tolis Irithel
Northstar Cabal
R.A.G.E
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 09:20:00 -
[18]
There are a fair few potential supply-side shocks coming to the PI market; sadly, they have opposing effects to each other, so predicting which way the overall effect will be...well, I don't really know.
I have excluded macroers from this analysis. Profitability figures suggest that it would be far superior for these people to run high-sec mining macros even under macro-affected prices, so I see no rational reason why they will play a major part in the PI market.
--Definite/Likely shocks--
1) CCP may (will) make PI adjustments. I don't know what they'll do/which way they'll move it, but I can't see them making their shiny new feature more inaccessible. So this is likely to be a positive supply-side shock, and drive prices down as more players enter the easier PI production process.
2) Longer-term, the introduction of Dust will have as-yet-unknown consequences on the production capacities of EVE players. The most rationally-expected outcome of this should be to diminish overall production, and therefore drive prices up, countering the effects of 1).
3) The diminishing stockpiles will run out, forcing a supply segment out of the PI market completely. Prices rationally increase as a result.
--Potential/Unlikely shocks--
1) CCP has a track record of shutting down NPC sell orders; currently, the planetary command centers are based on such orders. There is a hypothetical scenario in which these become player-built, either through PI mats/minerals (I consider moon goo a non-option). Market impact unknown.
2) There is a permanent threat of major trans-universe conflicts, which would at any point drive the supply of PI mats down (as sov changes hands) and the demand up (as more POS are erected). Positive impact on prices.
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 14:09:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Companion Trollin
I'm betting on a more likely scenario - PI prices spike in the short term while in the longer term all of the macro miners write PI clicking, exporting and hauling macros.
I kinda think this too, but it will be limited imo. The reason is macroing PI would leave a lot of zero active time. I can see a really complex macro that does mining and every 30 minutes goes the double clicks all the extractors, but picking up would be once in a while.
I have no doubt they'll macro it, but I don't know if that will be enough to really flood the market. If anything it will cause small downward spikes, as from what I've experienced Macros don't wait on the market, they sell to buy orders. So what I can see happening is they harvest harvest harvest for a few days then when they login after DT, they go and pickup the loads at the planets manually, then quick-sell, then fire up their macros for everything else.
Amarr for Life |
Marshiro
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 19:37:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Marshiro on 09/07/2010 19:37:46
I think higher tower costs will just be transfered to the consumer. I don't think T2 demand have high elasticity without some massive change in pvp habits. T2 is just too much bang for the buck and I expect more folks to scale back from faction into T2 if T2 price increases.
Now, for really poor players, they may be priced out of T2 and will go into junk fit, but I wonder if they are responsible for all that much pvp
|
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:15:00 -
[21]
Edited by: SencneS on 09/07/2010 20:16:22
Originally by: Marshiro
Now, for really poor players, they may be priced out of T2 and will go into junk fit, but I wonder if they are responsible for all that much pvp
At that point CCP might step in, while they love saying the economy is vast, they also don't want new players to be BBQed by older players everywhere you go. I mean short of a battleship, every T2 version of the T1 counterpart will simply win, unless you have a T2 ship with some really ineffective configuration. Although a Drake can give the Command-ships a run for their money.
I can see T2 becoming more expensive rather then shutting down the product chain, but I defiantly see a thinning of the supply.
Amarr for Life |
Xearal
Minmatar
SOL Industries
Kamikaze Project
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:43:00 -
[22]
Cache cleared. |
SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 20:50:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Xearal
Ok, i haven't looked at that sheet, however, your friend is doing it wrong then, or simply lacks basic PI skills.. if I were to switch my current production to POS fuels, I would be able to keep at least 3 large towers continually operational.
it's just a matter of getting the right planets, the right setup, and a little work on the logistics end.
I'm certain of it. He has enough POS fuel for a long time, so I don't know why he is doing this to be honest. I think the issue is, he is focusing on 1 type of fuel at a time. It's possible he doesn't have the skill. I still think he's wasting his time, could harvest something like Non-CS Crystals, which he's NEED for Consumer Electronics, sell what he doesn't use and buy any other P0 item..
I think he likes the idea of "It's free!!" which I've heard him use that before. Sometime you just can't help the fools.
So I try and help him out where I can lol
Amarr for Life |
Brock Nelson
Caldari
Flux Technologies Inc
SRS.
|
Posted - 2010.07.09 21:21:00 -
[24]
I would think that research cost would go up to reflect fuel cost. I'm set for 6 months anyways
Store |
SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 04:13:00 -
[25]
first, if you are going to throw numbers around, make sure you use medium faction POS numbers. using non-faction large faction pos number will yield "worst case scenario" at best.
second, i personally shove whatever little PI stuff i do (YES I CLICKED ON A PLANET :shame:) pretty much directly into a tower, since i don't have to jump out of system and move stuff around much. i suspect a lot of people do the same, hence why the number of PI-based product transactions you see on the market aren't really that close to the "full picture". in other words, what you suspect would go "up", would simply get flooded by the supply you don't see once the item(s) in question spike(s) (hence all the THIS PI ITEM BOUND TO GO UP LOL LOOK AT MAI MARKIT NUMBARS thread.) not to mention anyone can switch their production chains around rather easily if one item makes more monies than another, providing even more supply.
third, pos fuel prices has always been mostly isotopes-centric, with liquid ozone a close second, so highsec pos owners can absorb a *lot* of PI-product-based-fuel inflation before it starts hurting the bottom line. since running a POS is a lot of hassle, i doubt anyone bothers to run one (for blueprints/invention purpose) for less than 100mil a month, and even if the prices go really high, what will happen is people will simply switch to medium faction towers instead of large non-faction (who uses non-faction anyway? PEOPLE WHO CAN COUNT I MEAN.)
just my 2 isklets >.> |
Amarr Citizen 155
Nordar Innovations.
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 07:59:00 -
[26]
Originally by: SunGod RA
using non-faction large faction pos number
This confuses me.
Also, the part that you are all missing is...there is no PI.
|
Tamarana
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 15:02:00 -
[27]
P POS fuels were small part of the cost of fueling a POS, now they are a bigger part. But not so big as some people claim. I POS fuels are much more important.
What will, probably, happen is a redistribution of the ISKs spent between the two groups:
as P fuels will increase the prices of I fuels will reduce.
We saw the prices of I fuels go up and down from 250 to 600 isk/unit during an year and appear that people continued to fuel their POSes.
What could happen is to price out of the market some marginally profitable POSes. Not a big deal, anyway.
What CCP could do, if they want fix something about this, is to allow POSes to rent slots to single characters (opening the market for research much wider than now), corp. out of their alliance and rent copy and invention slots, not only ME and PE slots. So they can close down the public research services in NPC stations.
This would make research POSed in High sec much more efficient to run. And would allow greater competition in Invention and Copy.
The rest of the POSes are for Moon Mining and the prices will settle so much as to keep them profitable anyway. The POSes used to build Supercapitals and Titans have not a problem with the costs of the fuels.
|
SunGod RA
Endless Destruction
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 20:33:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Amarr Citizen 155
Originally by: SunGod RA
using non-faction large faction pos number
This confuses me.
true, after painstainkenly re-reading the entire communication in details, sacrificing to do so precious minutes that i will never get back again until my final clone is too scrambled to function, i realize that, in the middle of a frentix haze, i must have misread and therefore extend my sincere apologies to all the denizens of this fine galnet discussion subsection.
i also ran some more numbers into highly complex calculating devices (do you know how hard it is to push screaming jibbering gesticulating numbers into calculating devices these days? had to use these weird custom pinchers, hand made from broken-off trasher parts, bent by placing them carefully near my engine's dying tachyon exhaust using improvised space-age marshmellow campfire cooking apparatus,) faction vs non-faction doesn't really change numbers all that much. |
Lupalis Longtail
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 21:45:00 -
[29]
If you run a couple of posses, no way you can supply yourself with all fuel.
Fuel costs are already up over 30%, and I dont see the rise stopping yet. It may get crazy and end up 100% more expensive.
That means fueling a large pos wil cost about 12 mil a day to operate.
T2 modules and ships will HAVE to get more expensive.
|
Zenon Mu
Advanced Assemblies and Sciences
|
Posted - 2010.07.10 22:27:00 -
[30]
Edited by: Zenon Mu on 10/07/2010 22:29:47
I love graphs and numbers, so I just have to throw it in this thread too:
T2 index graph
This will happen in the next 2-3 months to the advanced moon mineral market and the T2 component market. Both graphs are based on a Jita volume/price basket, with ship comps only and the minerals weighting slightly corrected for ships consumption.
The estimates try to take all your arguments about PI into consideration and are spiced with my personal take on T2 comps and moon mins. The timeframe is also debatable, but in general structural shifts like this take about 3 months in eve.
- PI mats are going to be 2/3 of POS fuel ISK
- T2 ships will go up 20-30% at last
Whether we see less POS in highsec depends on how much the owners value their possibilities (accessible lab slots, time boni, production slots near hubs). We can expect anything to go up, where POSs help widening a high-sec bottleneck.
edit: fixed link, nope won't work
|
| |
|
| Pages: [1] 2 :: one page |
| First page | Previous page | Next page | Last page |