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CoolSnaz	Posted - 2010.09.07 13:27:00 - [1] Hi All, How many people have been having failed invention all of a sudden? Because I have been inventing for quite some time now, using my skills at 3. Since I got some of them to 4 I have now had 8 failed inventions in a row, this is not something I have not come across before. Although I have had friends also recently have the same problem. I haven't changed anything else from the inventing I did whilst with the skill at 3, and I used to get at least 1 in 4 successful invention, but 8 failed inventions seams excessive. Is this the norm? Kind Regards Coolsnaz
SurrenderMonkey	Posted - 2010.09.07 14:17:00 - [2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance --------------- Faction-Militia:Player-Alliance::Newbie-corp:Player-corp
RaTTuS BIG Majesta Empire	Posted - 2010.09.07 14:25:00 - [3] I've been stealing the luck from you with 5/5/5 currently last week better than average --
Stupid McStupidson Gallente Hoek Lyne and Sinker	Posted - 2010.09.07 14:55:00 - [4] The other 3,000 times someone posted about stealth invention nerfs, they were wrong. I'm sure though, this time it's true.
Kryss Stevenson Caldari Red Stallion Mercantile and Manufacturing	Posted - 2010.09.07 15:07:00 - [5] 109 successes out of 200 tries.... invention working as intended. No stealth nerf. Do more inventions it will even out ______________________________ Rock's fine, Nerf paper
Makko Gray Gallente Nexus Aerospace Corporation The Volition Cult	Posted - 2010.09.07 15:07:00 - [6] Originally by: CoolSnaz Is this the norm? Yes, everyone has bad runs and 8 attempts is too small a set to worry about. If you fail 80 in a row then that is fairly statisically unlikely (though still perfectly possible). You have to rely on the odds balancing out over time, but it does mean that unless you're lucky early on you can require some isk saved up to invest in datacores and other odds and ends to see you through the dry patches.
Sangii	Posted - 2010.09.07 15:08:00 - [7] Hey I was out in the Black Spawn Den today. Figured right after the patch would be a good time to get in when it wasn't camped. Anyhow for some reason I was getting hit a lot harder by the Tuskers then I normally am. Had to run out a few times and heal up. Does any one think that there was a stealth buff to the them? Edit - Aww crap looks like I forgot to bludgeon bane my gloves. Ignore the above.
Berikath	Posted - 2010.09.07 15:28:00 - [8] Originally by: CoolSnaz Edited by: CoolSnaz on 07/09/2010 14:01:00 Edited by: CoolSnaz on 07/09/2010 13:57:01 Hi All, How many people have been having failed invention all of a sudden? Because I have been inventing for quite some time now, using my skills at 3. Since I got some of them to 4 I have now had 8 failed inventions in a row, this is not something I have not come across before. Although I have had friends also recently have the same problem. I haven't changed anything else from the inventing I did whilst with the skill at 3, and I used to get at least 1 in 4 successful invention, but 8 failed inventions seams excessive. Is this the norm? Kind Regards Coolsnaz Onyxia is deep-breathing mo- Oh wait, wrong game. Sorry, thought people in EVE understood real randomness is not uniform.
CoolSnaz	Posted - 2010.09.07 15:39:00 - [9] I would like to thank you all, for your constructive and some not so constructive information. Just to clarify a few things though, I wasnÆt trying to suggest a nerf. I was just wondering if 8 fails in a row was the norm, and now that I see not only is it the norm but it is too small a number to start worrying I shall continue with my inventions. Thanks Again Coolsnaz
CoolSnaz	Posted - 2010.09.07 15:42:00 - [10] # # # TOPIC CAN BE CLOSED # # #
Sepi Gamma Draconis Industries Eternus Imperium Alliance	Posted - 2010.09.07 20:22:00 - [11] in terms of bad runs, think my worst was 5 successes from a 107 attempts. and this was cruiser and above, with 5/4 or 5/5 skills. Thats just luck. inventing at 3 in my opinion is asking for a few bad results, when it takes all of 3.5days to learn level 4, and for mods 4/4 give you lots more succes
Riley Moore Sentinum Research	Posted - 2010.09.07 20:31:00 - [12] I had 2x 5x runs all succeed this week; random is random.
Fat Uncle	Posted - 2010.09.07 21:14:00 - [13] Originally by: CoolSnaz # # # TOPIC CAN BE CLOSED # # # You must be new here.
Tau Cabalander Caldari	Posted - 2010.09.08 01:31:00 - [14] Edited by: Tau Cabalander on 08/09/2010 01:32:33 Originally by: CoolSnaz I would like to thank you all, for your constructive and some not so constructive information. Just to clarify a few things though, I wasnÆt trying to suggest a nerf. I was just wondering if 8 fails in a row was the norm, and now that I see not only is it the norm but it is too small a number to start worrying I shall continue with my inventions. Thanks Again Coolsnaz Don't take it personally. This is just one of those topics that gets brought-up so many times that it is on par with trolling in this forum. Another good troll is T2 BPOs, or asking how to earn ISK with no/minimal effort via industry.
Athar Mu Gallente Federal Navy Academy	Posted - 2010.09.08 01:43:00 - [15] After literally thousands of invention jobs done, my current average success rate is 73.89% for one item and for a second item 75.36% (only 2 items I have to hand atm) and I should be getting 74.88%. I have had times when I have had 10/10 successes and times when I have had 0/10 successes...its just the way it goes. It does seem to come in runs, but I have also found that I remember the bad loses more than I remember the good successes. If after a few thousand you are still getting excessive fails and you have recorded all your inventions then submit a bug report with the evidence to CCP and see what they say.
heheheh The Scope	Posted - 2010.09.08 11:56:00 - [16] hey man, just so you know ive had the opposite in the past few weeks, every single job i have done has succeded, guess thats random eh.
felchergod	Posted - 2010.09.08 21:17:00 - [17] very strange to me I have increased fail on invention but also a increased success on invention. How is that? RUS))
CoolSnaz	Posted - 2010.09.09 09:47:00 - [18] Well with 20 failed invention in a row I am actually starting to run out of cash. I know it is random, but it is rather annoying. Making my money back on the inventions now is looking harder and harder. but meh...
heheheh The Scope	Posted - 2010.09.09 12:51:00 - [19] 20 fails in a row is quite unfortunate, but when you invent for a long period of time you get quite a few of these bad patches.
K'uata Sayus	Posted - 2010.09.09 13:22:00 - [20] My last try at invention I got 6 fails in a row trying to invent Paladin BPC's using decryptors, skills at 4, blah, blah, blah. As in some other parts of my life, a string of failures like this is the norm. Some folks try meditation and yoga to influence the random chance of success, maybe you ought to give that a try. EVERYONE SEEMS NORMAL UNTIL YOU GET TO KNOW THEM.
wr3cks Reliables Inc Majesta Empire	Posted - 2010.09.10 05:12:00 - [21] At the risk of getting flamed, I might have spotted a bug. It should be relatively easy to confirm or deny... I have run 85 ship invention jobs in the past week. For several days, my success rate was something like: 0/10, 1/10, 0/10, 2/10, 1/10. Usually I have decent luck, but I have recently been changing the way I run the jobs. Here's what I was doing: I had two POS labs. All my decryptors, datacores, bpcs, and interfaces in one lab, I'd start 5 jobs, then ctrl+A move all my junk to the other lab, and queue up 5 more jobs. My theory: the jobs were somehow checking for the ship invention interface in the lab where they were installed, and failing when they were not found. Yesterday, I decided to run all the caldari jobs in one lab and to leave the caldari ship interface in that lab, and run the amarr/gal ones in the other lab, leaving those interfaces there. Today when I delivered the jobs, 6/10 successes. Obviously, this constitutes conclusive and irrefutable statistical proof of my theory. Anyways, if people are succeeding on ship invention jobs using POS labs where the interface isn't in the lab at the time of delivery, then I'm obviously incorrect. I'd test it further myself but I've just incinerated about a bil worth of datacores for these **** poor results, so if someone else can confirm/deny, science will thank you. And if I'm wrong, well -- I'm sure there have been stranger bugs in this game.
Lost Hamster Hamster Holding Corp	Posted - 2010.09.22 23:05:00 - [22] Originally by: wr3cks ... Not sure if that has anything to do with that. Could be. I have all the time the interfaces there. So I don't have such a problem. However sometimes there is something wrong, how the success ratio is generated for sure. results from this month, since I notice the job ratios, day by day. 95% of the invention went with ME-1 decrpyptor, some go with ME-2, all skills are lvl5 Sept 06 - 5 job - 0 success sept 08 - 5 job - 0 success sept 10 - 3 job - 0 success sept 10 - 1 job - 0 success (me-2) sept 12 - 4 job - 1 success sept 12 - 1 job - 1 success (me-2) sept 13 - 4 job - 1 success sept 15 - 2 job - 0 success sept 15 - 3 job - 0 success (me-2) sept 17 - 4 job - 1 success sept 17 - 1 job - 0 success (me-2) sept 18 - 2 job - 1 success sept 21 - 4 job - 0 success It's interesting to see the result in the big picture: for ME-1 jobs, results are from 50-120 jobs running for each ships. Golem: 34% success rate Widow - 28% success rate Paladin - 23% Redeemer - 23% Kronos - 31% Sin: 34% Vargur: 28% Panther: 19% Combined success ration is 28.64% - which on statistical level is good. However 3 month ago, my stat was over 32%. So in the last 3 month I had much more failures as expected. Today I have done some T3 reverse engineering job (Skills 5/4/4 ) With malfunctioning parts. Result from 9 jobs: 1 success. Seriously CCP, with the Wrecked components I had better results as with this.
Nahkep Narmelion Gallente CALIMA COLLABORATIVE	Posted - 2010.09.22 23:47:00 - [23] Basing expectations on past performance...unless you've done alot of invention and have kept pretty good records, is potentially misleading. Ideally you should calculate the actual underlying pdf and then figure out the expected value. Try reading here.
Robert Caldera	Posted - 2010.09.23 13:12:00 - [24] only 1 of 11 inventions succeed. invention got definetely nerfed
Lost Hamster Hamster Holding Corp	Posted - 2010.09.24 18:02:00 - [25] Edited by: Lost Hamster on 24/09/2010 18:02:34 Great CCP... 4 BS invent job, zero output again.
Kalseti	Posted - 2010.09.24 18:48:00 - [26] Originally by: Sangii Hey I was out in the Black Spawn Den today. Figured right after the patch would be a good time to get in when it wasn't camped. Anyhow for some reason I was getting hit a lot harder by the Tuskers then I normally am. Had to run out a few times and heal up. Does any one think that there was a stealth buff to the them? Edit - Aww crap looks like I forgot to bludgeon bane my gloves. Ignore the above. I loved AC .... had to play it on Darktide though...mmm PvP. Although it was OG running through the BSD killing everyone that got the nerf threads.

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