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Intact Armor Plates: Crashed, Crashing or Manipulation?

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Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.14 13:19:00 - [1] What do people think? Almost 25% shaved off there value in 2 days.
Oni Triad	Posted - 2010.11.14 13:47:00 - [2] Yes.
egola Amarr	Posted - 2010.11.14 13:51:00 - [3] hmmm maybe YES dot should be the formalized answer to all these market manipulation attempts.
Ophelia Ursus	Posted - 2010.11.14 14:11:00 - [4] Manipulation set against the background of a genuine long term increase. As supercarrier demand rises, so does demand for T2 trimarks... Signature removed.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.14 14:12:00 - [5] Originally by: Ophelia Ursus Manipulation set against the background of a genuine long term increase. As supercarrier demand rises, so does demand for T2 trimarks... So you think this is an attempt to push them down before they shoot back up again. I'm trying to understand manipulation and trends, so i know which is which.
egola Amarr	Posted - 2010.11.14 14:19:00 - [6] Edited by: egola on 14/11/2010 14:21:53 Originally by: Herman Klaus Originally by: Ophelia Ursus Manipulation set against the background of a genuine long term increase. As supercarrier demand rises, so does demand for T2 trimarks... So you think this is an attempt to push them down before they shoot back up again. I'm trying to understand manipulation and trends, so i know which is which. well trend buying and manipulation can go hand in hand, it all depends on how much you've invested into it, the leftover supplies after you go through with it and whether or not there is a reason for it to rise. although in all honesty the last part isn't exactly right as trends and manipulation can somehow spontaneously pop up for no reason. if you think about it, its all a vicious cycle
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.14 15:01:00 - [7] Well yeah i see your point. I can't understand the sudden drop tho due to such high demand for the item. Especially with NC raging war against pretty much the rest of Eve. I suspect the low prices to be a heavy manip. So i'll watch and learn.
egola Amarr	Posted - 2010.11.14 15:13:00 - [8] Edited by: egola on 14/11/2010 15:14:52 Originally by: Herman Klaus Well yeah i see your point. I can't understand the sudden drop tho due to such high demand for the item. Especially with NC raging war against pretty much the rest of Eve. I suspect the low prices to be a heavy manip. So i'll watch and learn. me neither, it has to be manipulation, with the release of the new quarterly report the demand for it should've skyrocketed instead. clearly someones keeping prices low, buy out supplies and then resell once it spikes back up or so. then again the nature of trend markets and manipulation is so intertwined that its impossible to tell if its a crappy bear market mentality or an insanely effective manipulation attempt in all honesty, i seriously thought this was another "XYZ IS UP, BUY IT NAO GUYZ!" thread to drive the prices back up but meh atleast its going into another direction
Tasko Pal Aliastra	Posted - 2010.11.14 15:31:00 - [9] When something slides back from a annual peak on moderately lower trading, I don't think manipulation. I think "bridge too far". Even with current supercap demand (something like almost 200 built each month for the last few) and assuming all those supercaps want t2 armor riggings, there's still more volume in Jita than can be sucked up by supercaps. Looks to me like some combination of a little profit taking and a lull in demand (while supply ratchets its way down). Also, from my limited knowledge of technical analysis, this has the look of a head and shoulders pattern. Could see a further drop in plates.
Lederstrumpf	Posted - 2010.11.14 15:33:00 - [10] Originally by: Herman Klaus I can't understand the sudden drop tho due to such high demand for the item. I was following the prices for intact armor plates for a while, as I made my first salvaging millions with armor plates and wanted to know what the 'real' stuff does cost, trading some armor plates here and there lateron. What you can see on the Jita armor plates history graph is an increase of graph "steepness" around beginning of July, where sales volume in Jita suddenly kinda doubled to around 1000 units traded at around 22m each. There's many folks who could have done an investment of 500*22m (=11b). There's another peak in trade volume after the temporary September "decline" which must have been another major buy action, as the price didn't go down further which would have to be expected if the market would have been flooded. Do we know how the new salvaging ship will influence the intact armor plates market? No? So one might consider selling some stock to cash in and lower future risk, right? So it peaked above 45m per intact armor plate? That'd equal 100+% profit for any unit bought at 22m.
Ophelia Ursus	Posted - 2010.11.14 17:05:00 - [11] Edited by: Ophelia Ursus on 14/11/2010 17:06:47 Originally by: Tasko Pal When something slides back from a annual peak on moderately lower trading, I don't think manipulation. I think "bridge too far". Even with current supercap demand (something like almost 200 built each month for the last few) and assuming all those supercaps want t2 armor riggings, there's still more volume in Jita than can be sucked up by supercaps. Yes, but trimarks for supercaps almost certainly account for a clear majority of the movement in IAPs. Say we have 160 armor tanking supercaps being produced per month. Each one needs 3 T2 trimarks, and each T2 trimark requires 14 IAPs if built from an ME0 BPC from a mag site, or 16 IAPs if built from an invented ME -1 BPC; assuming production uses a 50:50 split of invented and looted BPCs, that's 45 IAPs per supercap, so 7200 per month, or 1600 per week (taking a month as 4.5 weeks). The number of IAPs sold per day in Jita last week (07/11 to 13/11) was anomalously high: 3321 units sold, with multiple days where the 500 unit mark was surpassed, compared to a 'normal' daily volume of 250-350. Looking at the preceding week (31/10 to 06/11), the number sold was 1998. So in a 'normal' week, supercap demand probably accounts for 70-80% of the total number of IAPs moved... Signature removed.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.14 17:16:00 - [12] So are we seeing a massive dump in reserves getting dropped into the market? If so it's down down down for IAP's surely. The 146 buy order seems to be producing a floor atm. How long for tho i wonder? When i see a price floor i think manipulation.
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking	Posted - 2010.11.14 19:35:00 - [13] Originally by: Ophelia Ursus Edited by: Ophelia Ursus on 14/11/2010 17:06:47 Originally by: Tasko Pal When something slides back from a annual peak on moderately lower trading, I don't think manipulation. I think "bridge too far". Even with current supercap demand (something like almost 200 built each month for the last few) and assuming all those supercaps want t2 armor riggings, there's still more volume in Jita than can be sucked up by supercaps. Yes, but trimarks for supercaps almost certainly account for a clear majority of the movement in IAPs. Say we have 160 armor tanking supercaps being produced per month. Each one needs 3 T2 trimarks, and each T2 trimark requires 14 IAPs if built from an ME0 BPC from a mag site, or 16 IAPs if built from an invented ME -1 BPC; assuming production uses a 50:50 split of invented and looted BPCs, that's 45 IAPs per supercap, so 7200 per month, or 1600 per week (taking a month as 4.5 weeks). The number of IAPs sold per day in Jita last week (07/11 to 13/11) was anomalously high: 3321 units sold, with multiple days where the 500 unit mark was surpassed, compared to a 'normal' daily volume of 250-350. Looking at the preceding week (31/10 to 06/11), the number sold was 1998. So in a 'normal' week, supercap demand probably accounts for 70-80% of the total number of IAPs moved... This kind of usage is why it probably won't take long for them to go back up to where they were. They've been steadily rising, someone decided to cash in a stockpile around the 40m mark, thus crashing them. No big deal.
Tasko Pal Aliastra	Posted - 2010.11.14 20:13:00 - [14] Originally by: Ophelia Ursus Edited by: Ophelia Ursus on 14/11/2010 17:06:47 Yes, but trimarks for supercaps almost certainly account for a clear majority of the movement in IAPs. Say we have 160 armor tanking supercaps being produced per month. Each one needs 3 T2 trimarks, and each T2 trimark requires 14 IAPs if built from an ME0 BPC from a mag site, or 16 IAPs if built from an invented ME -1 BPC; assuming production uses a 50:50 split of invented and looted BPCs, that's 45 IAPs per supercap, so 7200 per month, or 1600 per week (taking a month as 4.5 weeks). The number of IAPs sold per day in Jita last week (07/11 to 13/11) was anomalously high: 3321 units sold, with multiple days where the 500 unit mark was surpassed, compared to a 'normal' daily volume of 250-350. Looking at the preceding week (31/10 to 06/11), the number sold was 1998. So in a 'normal' week, supercap demand probably accounts for 70-80% of the total number of IAPs moved... That's assuming that many supercaps use 3 trimarks. I see that CCC IIs are a common fit as well on the killboards.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.14 20:19:00 - [15] Originally by: Tasko Pal That's assuming that many supercaps use 3 trimarks. I see that CCC IIs are a common fit as well on the killboards. Well either someone just bought a ton hoping it'll rise again or they are going back up. Someone somewhere lost alot of ISK!
wizard87	Posted - 2010.11.15 02:01:00 - [16] Some wise fool has started building Amarr AFs to turn into T2 wrecks to salvage for IAPs.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.15 02:04:00 - [17] Originally by: wizard87 Some wise fool has started building Amarr AFs to turn into T2 wrecks to salvage for IAPs. Huh, WUT?
Roosterton Eternal Frontier Saints Amongst Sinners	Posted - 2010.11.15 02:11:00 - [18] Edited by: Roosterton on 15/11/2010 02:11:18 Originally by: wizard87 Some wise fool has started building Amarr AFs to turn into T2 wrecks to salvage for IAPs. CCP. Is. This. An exploit? If not... gets blueprints handy -------- Enemy corps raided into disbandment: Three. Originally by: Tarminic OH MY GOD WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?!
Ophelia Ursus	Posted - 2010.11.15 02:48:00 - [19] Edited by: Ophelia Ursus on 15/11/2010 02:48:19 Originally by: Roosterton Edited by: Roosterton on 15/11/2010 02:11:18 Originally by: wizard87 Some wise fool has started building Amarr AFs to turn into T2 wrecks to salvage for IAPs. CCP. Is. This. An exploit? If not... gets blueprints handy Why would it be an exploit? I'd suggest destroying and salvaging a hundred or so on SiSi before going into full production so that you can get a good idea of how many IAPs you can expect per wreck and accurately assess its profitability, but it's no more an exploit than was large scale insurance fraud before that was changed. Signature removed.
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking	Posted - 2010.11.15 04:24:00 - [20] Originally by: wizard87 Some wise fool has started building Amarr AFs to turn into T2 wrecks to salvage for IAPs. I could be mistaken, but frigate salvage rate isn't really that good, is it?
Contessa Chaos	Posted - 2010.11.15 04:36:00 - [21] Edited by: Contessa Chaos on 15/11/2010 04:36:41 Originally by: wizard87 Some wise fool has started building Amarr AFs to turn into T2 wrecks to salvage for IAPs. I think your talking about me, and yes it works. have done about 250 ships so far and made a bil in profit. it's boring though. and its not amarr, lol
Alice Celadon	Posted - 2010.11.15 05:42:00 - [22] Edited by: Alice Celadon on 15/11/2010 05:43:28 yea i just made 20 mil on 10 retributions, with t1 rigs and mods. it works. edit: that's t1 salvagers and rigs i'm talking about.
Ophelia Ursus	Posted - 2010.11.15 06:12:00 - [23] Originally by: Alice Celadon Edited by: Alice Celadon on 15/11/2010 05:43:28 yea i just made 20 mil on 10 retributions, with t1 rigs and mods. it works. edit: that's t1 salvagers and rigs i'm talking about. The tech level of your salvaging gear makes no difference to the quality or quantity of the salvage you get, just to the likelihood of successfully salvaging on any given cycle. Signature removed.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.15 07:27:00 - [24] IAP's are screwed then! It's down down down if this true. Frigs dropping IAP's is just plain broken tho.
corestwo Goonfleet Investment Banking	Posted - 2010.11.15 13:52:00 - [25] Originally by: Herman Klaus IAP's are screwed then! It's down down down if this true. Frigs dropping IAP's is just plain broken tho. Oh its true all right. Why he would share his moneymaking trick, I have no idea.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.15 14:18:00 - [26] Originally by: corestwo Oh its true all right. Why he would share his moneymaking trick, I have no idea. Ha. Selling bloated priced AF's i assume. Back to IAP's. They seem to have levelled out at 35m.
Ophelia Ursus	Posted - 2010.11.15 16:31:00 - [27] Originally by: corestwo Originally by: Herman Klaus IAP's are screwed then! It's down down down if this true. Frigs dropping IAP's is just plain broken tho. Oh its true all right. Why he would share his moneymaking trick, I have no idea. I went on to SiSi to test it; was planning on destroying 50 to get a reasonable sample size. By the time I'd got 10 of them blown up by the sentry guns, I wanted to gouge my own eyes out. Maybe he just figures that no one's desperate enough to make a serious go of it. Signature removed.
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.15 17:25:00 - [28] Originally by: Ophelia Ursus Originally by: corestwo Originally by: Herman Klaus IAP's are screwed then! It's down down down if this true. Frigs dropping IAP's is just plain broken tho. Oh its true all right. Why he would share his moneymaking trick, I have no idea. I went on to SiSi to test it; was planning on destroying 50 to get a reasonable sample size. By the time I'd got 10 of them blown up by the sentry guns, I wanted to gouge my own eyes out. Maybe he just figures that no one's desperate enough to make a serious go of it. Haha. I too went to SiSi and blew up 25 of each AF available. So 200 in all. Took so long i wanted to punch in my own skull. In the end I got four IAP. YES FOUR!!!
Illectroculus Defined Chooch Inc. Twilight Federation	Posted - 2010.11.15 19:36:00 - [29] I was making a bunch of money recently buying up underpriced T2 rigs and reprocessing them for armor plates, but I honesty never thought the salvage rate was high enough to make it worth self destructing t2 ships. Vote Illectro for CSM5! Supporting the New Generation of Eve Players
Herman Klaus Caldari Touched By Klaus	Posted - 2010.11.22 19:09:00 - [30] Well it seems they're bombing properly now. Down 10% in 12 hours. Seems it's time to sell up.

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