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Cmdr Kabelovsky
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Posted - 2011.01.04 11:45:00 -
[1]
I have plans to start a new lottery business in Eve. I am not sure whether this has been or is being done, or whether it would work, so I am posting on this forum to hope to get some advice. The lottery would function as follows:
They will be a draw every week and during that time players can buy tickets for 5 million each.
A draw will occur at the end of the week where a first prize will be picked and 20 second prizes picked:
1st prize û 2 billion isk
2nd prize û 25 million isk
This means every week a total of 2.5 billion isk will be given out. Assuming we get approximately 500 customers each week, each buying an average of 1.25 tickets (so 1 out of 4 buy two tickets), we will have a profit of 625 million isk each week.
Also, a good thing I see in this is that if we have too few customers, somebody will realize they can make a profit out of this by buying a large number of tickets, competing against very few other players, and so having a very large chance to win. This will therefore increase ticket sales until equilibrium between what people are willing to pay and their chance of winning is reached, and so ensuring we will have a good number of customers.
At the moment, this is just an idea, and I would also like to know who would like to join the team or donate / invest into this business.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.04 11:50:00 -
[2]
Research more, if you don't even know whether lotteries are done yet already then perhaps you're not ready to launch a business?
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Dracnys
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.01.04 11:55:00 -
[3]
Unfortunately you're not the first one to find out that lotteries are profitable - have a look at the sell orders forum which is full of them. Some don't fill or take forever to do so. I think you're overestimating the demand for new lotteries and you certainly won't get 500 customers a week.
The most important thing for a lottery business is trust. You ask people to send you ISK without offering a collateral so as a first time lottery you will need a third party like Grendell, Chribba or Darknesss and they'll ask for a fee. Unless you somehow convince people of your honesty nobody will participate in a non-secured lottery. Furthermore you have to show a fair and secure method to determine the winner. Check out: Chribba's dice tool for that.
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Cmdr Kabelovsky
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Posted - 2011.01.04 12:14:00 -
[4]
Indeed, I am not ready to launch this business and hence I am posting on this forum to ask for advice. I apologise that I wasn't clear on the purpose of this post. This is to kindly ask for advice and information that you already have to form part of my research.
Dracnys thank you for your help. I didn't realise lotteries would be put into the sell orders section. Indeed, a third party would probably be used, and instead of the ones found in sell orders, I am hoping to establish a lottery on a much more regular basis and more money prize based (similar to RL lottery). After a while, with the high frequency of draws, hopefully a good trust can be built up where the third party can then be skipped out.
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Jasdemi
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Posted - 2011.01.04 12:44:00 -
[5]
 Originally by: Cmdr Kabelovsky
Indeed, a third party would probably be used.
A third party MUST be used. You think someone will trust you, Cmdr, few hundreds of millions?
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Kalrand
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
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Posted - 2011.01.04 15:07:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Jasdemi
Originally by: Cmdr Kabelovsky
Indeed, a third party would probably be used.
A third party MUST be used. You think someone will trust you, Cmdr, few hundreds of millions?
Didn't Somer just start by doing small, break-even lotteries to gain people's trust?
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AtheistOfFail
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.01.04 15:16:00 -
[7]
Edited by: AtheistOfFail on 04/01/2011 15:16:40
Originally by: Jasdemi
Didn't Somer just start by doing small, break-even lotteries to gain people's trust?
Nah, he started by scamming Daquarius for 25b ISK.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.04 17:10:00 -
[8]
Originally by: AtheistOfFail
Edited by: AtheistOfFail on 04/01/2011 15:16:40
Originally by: Jasdemi
Didn't Somer just start by doing small, break-even lotteries to gain people's trust?
Nah, he started by scamming Daquarius for 25b ISK.
Twisting the truth much? :P
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Grendell
Technologies Unlimited
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Posted - 2011.01.04 18:03:00 -
[9]
Lotteries 101
That link should help get you started.
Grendell ♥
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Lederstrumpf
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Posted - 2011.01.04 18:35:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Cmdr Kabelovsky
somebody will realize they can make a profit out of this by buying a large number of tickets, competing against very few other players, and so having a very large chance to win
I've run a round of Lotto where buying all tickets in effect made you "buy" a ship under average market price.
Lemme say you this: In the _rare_ cases where ticket buyers actually can make real profit most of them just don't do the math... and I guess you didn't either.
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AtheistOfFail
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.01.04 20:43:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: AtheistOfFail
Edited by: AtheistOfFail on 04/01/2011 15:16:40
Originally by: Jasdemi
Didn't Somer just start by doing small, break-even lotteries to gain people's trust?
Nah, he started by scamming Daquarius for 25b ISK.
Twisting the truth much? :P
Ok, maybe a little bit. Somerset started by running lotteries then making Somer.blink then scamming Daquarius.
PS: To anyone who says he deserved it, that's kinda of the tricky thing with scamming a scammer. It's still scamming. 
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.01.04 21:30:00 -
[12]
Originally by: AtheistOfFail
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Originally by: AtheistOfFail
Edited by: AtheistOfFail on 04/01/2011 15:16:40
Originally by: Jasdemi
Didn't Somer just start by doing small, break-even lotteries to gain people's trust?
Nah, he started by scamming Daquarius for 25b ISK.
Twisting the truth much? :P
Ok, maybe a little bit. Somerset started by running lotteries then making Somer.blink then scamming Daquarius.
PS: To anyone who says he deserved it, that's kinda of the tricky thing with scamming a scammer. It's still scamming.
Getting back what was originally yours from a scammer is a world of difference from an actual scam. It's like saying taking your purse back from a thief who originally stole it from you is still stealing ..
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AtheistOfFail
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.01.04 22:26:00 -
[13]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
Getting back what was originally yours from a scammer is a world of difference from an actual scam. It's like saying taking your purse back from a thief who originally stole it from you is still stealing ..
He misused the trust placed in him to be honest. Same as F900EX and same as the guys in Jita who have been "quitting eve" for years and "doubling your ISK".
PS: Keep in mind Daquarius put the contract for 0 ISK because there was a deal between him and Somer to sell back the stolen goods.
PSS: I don't take sides, so don't argue saying I agree with Daquarius' scam. I just like the truth.
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Lanais Suleia
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Posted - 2011.01.04 22:39:00 -
[14]
Or grabbing your ore back from a can.... wait. |
AtheistOfFail
Caldari
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Posted - 2011.01.04 22:42:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Lanais Suleia
Or grabbing your ore back from a can.... wait.
LOL. Best example ever.
PS: Concord doesn't flag you "red" because you're a good anti-thief. It's because you stole 
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