Tasko Pal
Spallated Garniferous Schist
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Posted - 2011.01.19 19:26:00 -
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Here's how I do it. I make a conservative estimate for the profit per month, say 300 million. Subtract from that the amount of time I consume in this venture in hauling, setting orders, etc, say an hour a week, valued at 25 mil per hour (if I'm managing a trillion isk, then my time is probably worth far more than 25 mil per hour). That gives us roughly 200 million left over. I estimate how much isk is tied up in assets over a month. Let's say I ship once a month 1.5 billion isk of stuff and sell them for 1.8 billion. Average amount over time tied up is 750 million. So you're getting an effective ROI of 200 mil/ 750 mil, or roughly 26.7% per month.
Take the sort of trader who'd be interested and estimate their ROI. I'd say that 20% is reasonable unless this is a pretty safe activity (then you might be able to sell to a class of trader with a lower expected ROI, say like 10% per month). The ROI of the above activity is higher and pretty good amount in its own right (300 mil a month for a little more than 4 hours of work isn't bad).
So how much extra value do they get out of it? It's 6.7% higher ROI than expected. In other words, they have an opportunity that earns 50 million more per month they otherwise could expect. Now we have to figure out what a future income stream of 50 mil per month (starting say a month from now) is worth today. We're given that they expect to earn 20% per month. That's enough to calculate that the present day value of that future revenue stream over n months is roughly r/(1-r)*A, where r is 1/1.2=.86666... and A is the monthly payment of 50 mil. The value is 250 mil. Now I doubt anyone is going to pay just to get an opportunity that they'd already expect to get (especially since you could be selling this opportunity to several people!). So end result is that you'll end up getting substantially less isk for the information, perhaps half, which is 125 mil isk, if they trust you enough.
Now if it's a trader who can't get an opportunity anything like this. Then this could have more value. If my expected ROI were 10%, then r = 1/1.1, A = 125 mil (since they'd expect to earn 75 mil instead of 200 mil with the 750 mil average amount that they have tied up in assets). Then the value of your lead (assuming they're the sole recipients) is roughly 1.25 billion (assuming they milk it forever). Unfortunately, they probably also aren't the sort to have a lot of isk around.
The idea here is that you get a crude idea of how much something is worth and who would be interested in it. It's a tough call whether you have something of value or not. The people who could most afford it have the highest ROI on their investments and hence, would find your opportunity of lesser value.
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