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Piwat King
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:21:00 -
[1]
I was recently enjoying some random gambling when i started knowing a trend. this one guy Ufgood was buying 2 numbers (sometimes 3 if he wanted to end a blink) and was winning around 80% of them blinks present. it doesn't matter what was up he participated in all of them and kept winning . at one point out of the last 10 blinks he had won 9 of them with only buying 2 numbers.
I recorded this all with fraps refreshing and he just keeps on winning. He's there right now you can see this for yourself if you go check it out.
Also what made me question this originally was looking back at the promo blink the same people keep winning them 2 or 3 times in a row and quite often a character in an NPC corp. that made me wonder it's 1 ticket per person how do these guys constantly win? well now we know why, the creator and his friends had rigged it to be able to play the blinks themselves with alts and control the winning numbers.
don't believe me? log on to blink right now and watch this guy.
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Piwat King
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:26:00 -
[2]
they are now using another character for thier scam. T1GER.
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Angel HUN
Destructive Influence IT Alliance
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:28:00 -
[3]
Burdem of proof is on you.
Quite a substantial claim to make!
Originally by: CCP Oveur
We. Will. Never. Leave. EVE.
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Naitrayera
Arthashastra
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:29:00 -
[4]
you should get help...you know...
Gambling addiction is a serious problem and in later stages it frakks with your mind |
Corozan Aspinall
Party Time Inc.
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:30:00 -
[5]
Originally by: Angel HUN Burdem of proof is on you.
Quite a substantial claim to make!
Substantial to prove. Not a great surprise to anyone the claim .. Its EvE. Its player run. Scam.
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Party Grinder
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:32:00 -
[6]
Edited by: Party Grinder on 27/01/2011 02:33:18 Confirming I'm one of Somer's alt. Also confirming that I'm so desperate for ISK that I feel the need to buy 7 tickets out of 8 on a ship and then rig the game to make one of them win the it. Also confirming that I don't have a 20% margins on games, which means I make no ISK at all and need to bother cheating to be able to pay for my rifters
TL;DR: Gambling games are a "scam". All of them. Outside of that, Blink is very certainly not manipulating the rolls to make some people win.
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Irani Firecam
Fidelas Constans
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:33:00 -
[7]
Instead of gambling, you should make a living like good, honest folks do: mining some veldspar.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:33:00 -
[8]
I see "ufgood" having won 3 out of the last 12, and losing a big one with 2 blinks placed (which were on even numbers). The info page says he played 210 and won 56 (26.6% vs expected 12.5%), with total winnings at almost 3.8 bil (so 18 mil per played blink average). He also shows a huge bias towards picking odd numbers usually.
Not exactly conclusive evidence for rigging, but a bit odd indeed. _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Barkaial Starfinder
Minmatar The Kairos Syndicate Transmission Lost
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:33:00 -
[9]
Well.. They don't really NEED to scam to get filthy rich(er). Blink is already a scam like every lottery. BUT humans are quite greedy, and this is the first scheme that came to my mind when I met S.Blink.
Yet no one have proof, so if you have...
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Autumnries Mahm
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:34:00 -
[10]
Edited by: Autumnries Mahm on 27/01/2011 02:34:52 And if we really needed to scam, which we do not, wouldn't we be smart enough to not use the same character forever? :P
The fact remains that some people play a LOT of blinks, buying a LOT of tickets to each one. Since our random numbers (which come from random.org) are truly random, sometimes those people will hit some awesome runs. That would be why it's gambling, and not "fixed rate of return machine".
Do you think we'd publish the past winners or the winners of the last 15 blinks if we were trying to cover up something?
Edit: we do publish the code for the random draw.
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Andrev Nox
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:38:00 -
[11]
Heyo folks :)
Every now and again, someone sees someone else win a string and this type of post pops up. I'm always happy to address it, though :)
Sometimes, a person (or group of people) wins several in a row because they buy a larger number of tickets to a specific blink. "Buying better odds" essentially.
Sometimes, a person wins several in a row just due to sheer blind luck.
But with over 171,703 prizes given away (not counting the 1,054 free promo giveaways), we'd need a LOOOOTTT of alts to perpetuate a scam on the scale you're suggesting :p
And, as many others have pointed out over the months, every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit. We'd be terminally stupid to rig the system in any way, as it would be the one sure-fire way to kill our business forever.
If you like, you're free to evaluate our method for choosing winners. The code we use to get the number is here. As you can see, we draw it from random.org. You can find their real-time statistics here and several peer-reviewed papers on the quality of their random-generator here.
Hope that helps :)
PS - Always blink on 4. We rigged 4 to win.
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Autumnries Mahm
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:38:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Akita T
I see "ufgood" having won 3 out of the last 12, and losing a big one with 2 blinks placed (which were on even numbers). The info page says he played 210 and won 56 (26.6% vs expected 12.5%), with total winnings at almost 3.8 bil (so 18 mil per played blink average). He also shows a huge bias towards picking odd numbers usually.
Not exactly conclusive evidence for rigging, but a bit odd indeed.
As a data point:
ufgood has bought 410 tickets total to blinks, playing a total of 210 blinks-- he buys 1.95 tickets per blink.
This should give him a win rate of 12.5% * 1.95 = 24.375%. He is slightly ahead indeed.
Apologies if the "blinks played" vs "tickets bought" is unclear from the profile pages.
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Barkaial Starfinder
Minmatar The Kairos Syndicate Transmission Lost
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:38:00 -
[13]
There is no true random number, but yeah.. If you are scamming it, you are doing pretty well.
On a side note.. If you were to scamm and did it right, it would be near impossible to track.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:41:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Autumnries Mahm Apologies if the "blinks played" vs "tickets bought" is unclear from the profile pages.
I was just editing exactly that in my previous post _
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts _
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Autumnries Mahm
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:41:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Barkaial Starfinder There is no true random number, but yeah.. If you are scamming it, you are doing pretty well.
On a side note.. If you were to scamm and did it right, it would be near impossible to track.
I concur. However I would suggest it's a lot harder to be evil with a game like Blink, in which every lottery has a winner.
It seems to me that the real targets for rigging are the sites you see where it's you versus the house-- where it's "oops, your number didn't come up, try again". That's why Blink sticks solely to games where someone always wins.
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Icarantus
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:42:00 -
[16]
Piwat you're an idiot who probably lost a fortune and needs an outlet. I have lost a fortune and won a fortune (a little in the favor of losing). I'm one of those who ALWAYS multi-seats (to the tune of 50% or more of the table!!) so don't you think I would be the first and loudest person shouting foul right now? People get streaks of luck. That's what gambling is ffs! It's what makes it addictive!! The highs are high and the lows are well .... EXPECTED if you have half a brain! Damn I hope you're not in a PvP corp screaming "not fair, the guy fired with at least 22.984 DPV than normal.
Best rule. If you can't take losing don't gamble .......... in fact DON'T PLAY EVE!!! Life is short .......... Make someone else's shorter! |
Autumnries Mahm
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:45:00 -
[17]
Edited by: Autumnries Mahm on 27/01/2011 02:45:39
Originally by: Piwat King Also what made me question this originally was looking back at the promo blink the same people keep winning them 2 or 3 times in a row and quite often a character in an NPC corp.
I do want to address this part specifically-- unfortunately in Eve, "free stuff" is like flies to honey. NPC corp promo winners are often alts rolled specifically to play promos-- and we don't like them any more than you do :P
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:45:00 -
[18]
Given the sample size, Ufgood is a bad choice to accuse them of scamming. If you look harder, I guarantee you will find statistical outliers who did much better than a few percent above expected.
The true utility of Somer.Blink and all lotteries in EVE is that they are the most untraceable method of RMTing for EVE.
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Autumnries Mahm
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:48:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Alice Celadon The true utility of Somer.Blink and all lotteries in EVE is that they are the most untraceable method of RMTing for EVE.
I can try to hit this one as well while I'm here. We specifically seek to limit the RMT activity on our site by:
- Not allowing cashout of your balance
- Not allowing you to transfer your balance to other players
- Not providing an outlet for straight ISK "churn" (like a pure ISK lottery)
We do what we can and trust CCP to do the rest. I think I read somewhere that Titan trades through Chribba are also a good money launderer. Unfortunately you have to just rely on CCP to do their job while sites and services such as ours and Chribba's do theirs.
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Andrev Nox
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 02:50:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Alice Celadon
The true utility of Somer.Blink and all lotteries in EVE is that they are the most untraceable method of RMTing for EVE.
We've done what we can to try and combat this, honestly, sometimes to the detriment of our legitimate business.
1. We don't allow isk deposited from one char to transfer to another. 2. We don't allow direct isk withdrawl. 3. We don't allow "private" blinks. 4. We don't allow prizes/isk won by one person paid out to another.
All features that our (real) customers request, but we've had to pass up on because it would make RMT easier.
Equally, we have an open and eager invitation to CCP to audit our books (as regularly as they're willing to), and a heartfelt request that they nuke-from-orbit any RMT-er they find.
We play eve too, afterall.
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Swynet
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:05:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Piwat King I was recently enjoying some random gambling when i started knowing a trend. this one guy Ufgood was buying 2 numbers (sometimes 3 if he wanted to end a blink) and was winning around 80% of them blinks present. it doesn't matter what was up he participated in all of them and kept winning . at one point out of the last 10 blinks he had won 9 of them with only buying 2 numbers.
I recorded this all with fraps refreshing and he just keeps on winning. He's there right now you can see this for yourself if you go check it out.
Also what made me question this originally was looking back at the promo blink the same people keep winning them 2 or 3 times in a row and quite often a character in an NPC corp. that made me wonder it's 1 ticket per person how do these guys constantly win? well now we know why, the creator and his friends had rigged it to be able to play the blinks themselves with alts and control the winning numbers.
don't believe me? log on to blink right now and watch this guy.
OP take your pils and STFU.
If there are people in this game that you can trust when you give 1isk/1Bilion or when you win something, these are the good people.
You don't have to belive me i don't realy care, but all of those here that already played with them know it. Just STFU and GTFO.
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Ebonella
Gallente ANZAC ALLIANCE IT Alliance
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:05:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Andrev Nox every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit.
lol a bit of a profit? dude you're raking in the cash, it's like 20% markup on each item, maybe more.
Good on you though for coming up with such a brilliant system.
I stopped playing personally, after donating lots of money to ya :)
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Autumnries Mahm
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:08:00 -
[23]
Edited by: Autumnries Mahm on 27/01/2011 03:11:00
Originally by: Ebonella
Originally by: Andrev Nox every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit.
lol a bit of a profit?
The vast majority of the markup on a given blink goes to one of the following areas:
- Free Promo prizes
- Our trivia game
- Employee Salaries (good employees are worth their weight in ISK)
- Shipping charges
- Supply sourcing (prices do fluctuate while blink prices usually don't, much)
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SwoopingHawkeye
We See Dead People Initiative Mercenaries
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:12:00 -
[24]
I have a solution to end this argument. I am an accountant in real life. I will submit my ap to somer blink corporation. Then once given acces to the wallet i will review your records and will post the results of me review here for all to see
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Taedrin
Gallente The Green Cross Controlled Chaos
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:12:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Ebonella
Originally by: Andrev Nox every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit.
lol a bit of a profit? dude you're raking in the cash, it's like 20% markup on each item, maybe more.
Good on you though for coming up with such a brilliant system.
I stopped playing personally, after donating lots of money to ya :)
That's the thing about gambling. Statistically speaking, as the number of games you play approaches infinity, your chances of turning a profit approach zero. That's why we have casinos, because statistics says that the house is guaranteed to win over a large number of games. ----------
Originally by: Dr Fighter "how do you know when youve had a repro accident"
Theres modules missing and morphite in your mineral pile.
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Swynet
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:13:00 -
[26]
Edited by: Swynet on 27/01/2011 03:14:00
Originally by: Ebonella
Originally by: Andrev Nox every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit.
lol a bit of a profit? dude you're raking in the cash, it's like 20% markup on each item, maybe more.
Good on you though for coming up with such a brilliant system.
I stopped playing personally, after donating lots of money to ya :)
You don't have a clue how business works. Stop buying meat/bread/milk everything you eat because god damm those products are almost 80% expensive than the initial price, and since you are right there stop using clothes or even buy PC's to post ****.
Edit; your life is sad
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Ebonella
Gallente ANZAC ALLIANCE IT Alliance
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:13:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Autumnries Mahm
Originally by: Ebonella
Originally by: Andrev Nox every legitimately closed blink nets us a bit of profit.
lol a bit of a profit?
The vast majority of the markup on a given blink goes to one of the following areas:
- Free Promo prizes
- Employee Salaries (good employees are worth their weight in ISK)
- Shipping charges
- Supply sourcing (prices do fluctuate while blink prices usually don't, much)
You're income would still be astronomical compared to your expenditure i'm guessing, not that it's a bad thing :) kudos for being an expert at isk income :)
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Magnus Orin
Minmatar United Systems Navy Wildly Inappropriate.
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:17:00 -
[28]
Do the math on this site.
Look at the profits these blinks bring in per prize, and then look at the volume that goes through the site everyday.
It makes no sense for this site to ever scam. It is far too profitable for them to stay in legitimate business than to risk rigging the numbers and getting caught.
I rarely play it myself (I deposited 10 mil on it to try it out, won once on a Jaguar, and then quit while I was ahead), but it really is an awesome site for those who love to gamble, and for the runners of the site to make mad amounts of isk. Sarcasm - Because i'm too far away to strangle you. |
GateScout
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:29:00 -
[29]
Edited by: GateScout on 27/01/2011 03:29:55
Originally by: Autumnries Mahm I concur. However I would suggest it's a lot harder to be evil with a game like Blink, in which every lottery has a winner.
It seems to me that the real targets for rigging are the sites you see where it's you versus the house-- where it's "oops, your number didn't come up, try again". That's why Blink sticks solely to games where someone always wins.
Of course, we don't know if we are playing against the house. Please note, I'm not suggesting that Blink is, in fact, using in-house ALTs to scam. However, it would be trivial to have a stable of always changing alts that could quite easily rack up more than enough isk to cover any overhead and make an even larger profit than you already are. Even if you are only winning 1% of Binks with your stable of ALTs, you've brought in 165 billion isk. That accounts only for ~1700 of your 170k binks. Even with a small number of accounts, this would be easily masked. That's just a bare minimum when you're not choosing which Blinks you're winning.
If you are scamming, you're picking large, highly profitable Blinks, and there is no way to discover this if you are mildly sneaky.
Bravo! My guess is that you're rolling in isk.
Again, I am NOT accusing you of cheating, but it could be easily accomplished. ...and I would be surprised if you're not skimming off the top.
Well played.
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Andrev Nox
SOMER Blink Cognitive Development
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Posted - 2011.01.27 03:32:00 -
[30]
Sure, the above scenario is possible - but, boiled down, that would be a lot more work and risk, for not that much more profit.
Better by far to not kill the golden goose, in our eyes :)
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