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Jita Dancer
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Posted - 2011.01.27 22:06:00 -
[1]
Can someone who knows invention tell me amidoinitrite?
I'm trying to work out if something is profitable to invent - its a bit of a chore, and I don't want to trawl through loads of mods, ships etc only to find I'm forgetting something or am an idiot :o)
Here's how I'm going about it, say for Inventing and Astarte (I know that this isn't likely to be profitable - I just want to work out how much)
So I go to the chruker invention calculator, throw in my skills (4,4,4 - probably not a good start!) throw in the decryptor for ME0. It tells me the chance of success with a 20* base chance (for battlecruisers) is 24.13%.
To run a single job, I'm assuming that the print is free (its not) - the decryptor is 7m, the datacores are 5.6m using Jita prices - that means to successfully invent a 1 run me0 Astarte blueprint it will cost me in the long run, 12.6 * 100/24.13 = 52m - per run.
Then looking up the components of the me0 Astarte print, for my builder char I get 188m in bits (Jita price). Which means that an Astarte will cost me 240M + fees to invent + BPC costs + fees to build. I can buy one on Jita market for 133M - ergo the Astarte is not even close to profitable for me - not surprising cause a) its crap and b) I have 4/4/4/ skills
Assuming that all command ships will come in close to 240M, the Sleipner, Vulture are selling for 230-240 - so they might come in at break even and be worth a closer look. If I skill up to 5/5/5 I might turn a small profit over the long term - assuming that the 5/5/5 will reduce my print cost a bit, and I've rounded things up not down - but inventing command ships at me0 looks to be a dead end.
Looking at the me2 Decryptor and an me2 print - the build cost jumps to 218M, the decryptor cost 30M (not 7M) and my invention chance jumps to 28.95% - BUT I get 1 extra run if I use a max run BPC as I'm not using the me0 decryptor - so my cost per print is 35.6 * 100/(28.95 * 2) = 61m in the long run - Astarte build 279M at me2 - even worse.
Is this the right approach? Are my numbers what you would (broadly!) expect?
If so, who is selling Astartes at 133M? Original BPO holders who have researched their lottery prints? burnt speculators? people who don't cost their invention right?
Is this the pattern I should be looking for - if the unpopular variants of something are at 50%-60% of popular variants then the unpopular ones aren't being invented (and are being totally supplied by BPO holders) while the popular ones will likely be break even or close to?
Is anything worth inventing? I'm not asking what, but is it worth even doing the research or does the market automatically correct to razor thin margins?
SK
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Ruziel
Minmatar
Twilight Military Industrial Complex
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Posted - 2011.01.27 23:11:00 -
[2]
First of all, I think you need to take a look at what decryptors do again. There is no decryptor that will give you a ME0 or ME2 T2 BPC, the best you can do is ME-1. The ME and PE values on decryptors are modifiers that are applied to the base of -4 ME/PE invented BPC that you get without using decryptors.
Second of all, I wouldn't suggest starting with inventing Command Ships. In most cases, the volume on these ships tends to be small enough that yes, the T2 BPO holders for these ships can supply enough to keep the cost below what inventors can produce them for, or nearly enough that it's not worth the effort to do so.
Yes, there are things worth inventing, but I nor other inventors will tell you which. Doing so would cut into our own profits, and a sudden influx of people into that market segment would end up killing it.
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Mirac Factar
Gallente
Hypergolic
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Posted - 2011.01.28 01:13:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Mirac Factar on 28/01/2011 01:13:02
Yeah, I would start with something smaller like modules rather than command ships.
Run the calculations with 5/5/5 skills the difference isn't that much. I've made plenty with invention in the past and none of my skills are at 5.
There are huge amounts of things that are worth inventing, but it changes with the markets and regions. You'd have to do the hard yards to work it out.
You also need to be able to adsorb strings of failures, just because it's a 25% chance of success this DOES NOT mean that 1/4 of your jobs will be successful in any given batch. Only that over time, your success rate will approach that value as you do more jobs. In the case of 25% chance, there is about a 5.6% chance in a batch of 10 that none of your jobs will be successful.
This just in, the energizer bunny has been arrested and charged with battery. |
Rattus Norwegius
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Posted - 2011.01.28 06:57:00 -
[4]
According to your own post, the component cost of a ME 0 print (10% waste) is way more than the cost of a ship. Even with a perfectly researched T2 BPO, you would loose isk.
The problem is therefor not related to invention at all.
Either the component prices in Jita has risen sharply recently, and the Astarte market hasn't caught up yet, or either you or the Astarte producer has made an error in the calculations somewhere. Moon materials are very unstable at the moment, so my money would be on that as the main culprit.
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JohnPaulJones
Caldari
Valhalla Naval Corp
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Posted - 2011.01.28 11:48:00 -
[5]
The market is razor thin on some things yes. On others however the proit per day is superb. You need to CAREFULLY study the effects of the decryptors and the ME they render. Second you need to carefully go over T2 from the moon,to the reactors to the market step by step. Drop the math for now and go over the basics of the materials you will need to build with. I was a POS operator and know the steps leading to T2 ships and items. Follow that road,it'll lead you where you seek to go.
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RaTTuS
BIG
Majesta Empire
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Posted - 2011.01.28 12:38:00 -
[6]
start with mods -
look at the me -4 values [no decryptor]
look at the cost of T2 comps [can you make them cheeper]
look at the decryptors - they are modifiers from -4
the best you can do is -1
command ships are / have always been thin profits - even for bpo holders
other ships move a lot more and can be much more profitable
--
Join BIG
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Spectre Wraith
Darwin Inc.
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Posted - 2011.01.28 13:16:00 -
[7]
Edited by: Spectre Wraith on 28/01/2011 13:16:17
The main issue with Command Ships is that the market for them is so thin that it's one of the few markets where BPO holders can sustain the demand. There are very few markets the T2 bpo holders can lay total claim over, CS is one of them.
Do your research, there is isk to be made but no one in their right mind will tell you where to look.
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Jita Dancer
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Posted - 2011.01.28 14:55:00 -
[8]
Cool - thanks for the replies :o)
Wasn't looking for the exact things to invent - I realize people would be stupid to give me that - was more looking at whether my assumptions were valid, and whether its worth doing the research
Seems I'm making some mistakes on what Decryptors do that make the profits even worse than I had calculated (bad news!) but that there are some things out there worth doing (good news!)
Think Ill get the calculator out and settle in for a weekend of excel-online. Or perhaps its finally time to import the DBExport and try and reduce the gruntwork a bit.
Cheers for the help.
SK
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Lore Varan
Caltech Shipyards
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Posted - 2011.01.28 17:28:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Lore Varan on 28/01/2011 17:32:59
Try my spreadsheet.
It takes all the donkey work out of the invention calculations.
Just input your skills and the costs of the components and it works out the build cost for every possible invention method then highlights the best ( cheapest )
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