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Florestan Bronstein
Amarr
Taishi Combine
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Posted - 2011.03.25 19:32:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Florestan Bronstein on 25/03/2011 19:35:33
EyjoG: CCP "may or may not" intervene on the PLEX market to guarantee its stability (without disclosed targets)
What is he trying to achieve?
Being an economist EyjoG doesn't like direct intervention in markets. The purpose of this announcement is to help the market fix itself without CCP intervention.
How? He is trying to create expectations that CCP is going to react to massive shifts on the PLEX market.
If people look at the market graph and expect CCP to intervene, they will engage in market speculation that in itself will make the intervention unnecessary.
(incoming edits to flesh out this post)
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Sebastian Belaqua
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Posted - 2011.03.25 19:35:00 -
[2]
Meaning, they will intervene. Just a matter of time til it something causes it to be "unstable", from CCPs POV
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Adrian Idaho
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Posted - 2011.03.25 19:58:00 -
[3]
So basically he manipulated the markets from outside of the game? 
Also interesting: his statement during the Q&A that more PLEX are being created than used. Wouldn't this mean that PLEX prices should fall in the intermediate future? Maybe that statement of his alone was enough of a manipulation to stabilize the prices around a lower value?
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:02:00 -
[4]
 Originally by: Adrian Idaho
Also interesting: his statement during the Q&A that more PLEX are being created than used.
That's not news. That's almost common knowledge. And old one at that. Linkage
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Malcorian Vandsteidt
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:04:00 -
[5]
Considering the original Value of a PLex when integrated into the market a few years ago was 200 million - 280 million ISK, and only in the last year has it gone up to 360 Mil / 380 Mil. I would say there is some kind of artifical involvement.
Not necessarily CCP but it's quit easy for the trillionair ISKers (and her are a lot of them now days) to buy 2500 plexes easily off the market and reprice then 10 mil higher per buy out.
The intention of the Plex was so players who could not afford the subscription could still play while players who could afford more could make ISK instead of buying it from RMTers. (RMT Battle).
The plex price is now so high that it is nigh impossible for your average Eve player to afford one. In fact most of the orders seem to stem from the Billionairs and trillionairs attempting to battle each other for highest price.
Personally I think restabilization is necessary, especially since CCP can easily loose subscriptions should the Plex price range to high. Which mean less money for them.
Just my own personal thoughts.
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Cyaxares II
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:06:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The intention of the Plex was so players who could not afford the subscription could still play while players who could afford more could make ISK instead of buying it from RMTers. (RMT Battle).
the intention of PLEX was to take a massive interest-free loan from the EVE playerbase.
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Cetus Perle Rote
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:09:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Considering the original Value of a PLex when integrated into the market a few years ago was 200 million - 280 million ISK, and only in the last year has it gone up to 360 Mil / 380 Mil. I would say there is some kind of artifical involvement.
Not necessarily CCP but it's quit easy for the trillionair ISKers (and her are a lot of them now days) to buy 2500 plexes easily off the market and reprice then 10 mil higher per buy out.
The intention of the Plex was so players who could not afford the subscription could still play while players who could afford more could make ISK instead of buying it from RMTers. (RMT Battle).
The plex price is now so high that it is nigh impossible for your average Eve player to afford one. In fact most of the orders seem to stem from the Billionairs and trillionairs attempting to battle each other for highest price.
Personally I think restabilization is necessary, especially since CCP can easily loose subscriptions should the Plex price range to high. Which mean less money for them.
Just my own personal thoughts.
I would disagree with this. Although I am a relatively new trader here, I have researched a bit and what seems to make Eve stand out is the fact that players can control the market if they choose to do so. If CCP did intervene it could cause a domino effect that may not be able to be accurately predicted. If the price is lowered people may also stop buying GTC's and converting them for in game money as their PLEX no longer holds the purchasing power that it once did.
Also from what it seems if anything it is easier to buy PLEX now than what it once was, correct me if I am wrong but is it not easier to make money now than what was once possible? Just looking at general trends it seems everything has been inflating over time, not just PLEX itself.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:15:00 -
[8]
It's in CCP's best interest to keep PLEX price low, if they are low, more have to be purchased when you want some quick ISK. However, to the average user, they want the best value they can. The "consumer" of the PLEX likes low prices because they don't have to spent much.
The counter argument is CCP would like a HIGH PLEX price because it directly competes with ISK Sellers. The higher the PLEX, the cheaper the ISK becomes, via legitimate means. However, high priced PLEX mean they start to become unobtainable for the consumer, so EVE loses players which are subscriptions.
It wouldn't surprise me to hear EyjoG dropped that line in an attempt to make people sell PLEX cheaper.
/Tinhat time :)
EVE is about to undergo a major patch, adding a whole new game basically to the game. Having cheaper PLEX prices means people start activating their alts, players return because PLEX price is obtainable, and with a new monumental patch coming out, the more players in game, the more the word spreads to previous players. The more re-newels at the time of patch. The more subscriptions in game, the bigger CCP can say to it's "investors" Hey look at successful this release was!
I know it's pretty big tinhat but if I heard it from the mouth of CCP, it wouldn't shock me to know they manipulated the price of PLEX to accelerated renewals/player base.
Amarr for Life |
Cetus Perle Rote
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Posted - 2011.03.25 20:20:00 -
[9]
Edited by: Cetus Perle Rote on 25/03/2011 20:21:27
Originally by: SencneS
It's in CCP's best interest to keep PLEX price low, if they are low, more have to be purchased when you want some quick ISK. However, to the average user, they want the best value they can. The "consumer" of the PLEX likes low prices because they don't have to spent much.
The counter argument is CCP would like a HIGH PLEX price because it directly competes with ISK Sellers. The higher the PLEX, the cheaper the ISK becomes, via legitimate means. However, high priced PLEX mean they start to become unobtainable for the consumer, so EVE loses players which are subscriptions.
It wouldn't surprise me to hear EyjoG dropped that line in an attempt to make people sell PLEX cheaper.
/Tinhat time :)
EVE is about to undergo a major patch, adding a whole new game basically to the game. Having cheaper PLEX prices means people start activating their alts, players return because PLEX price is obtainable, and with a new monumental patch coming out, the more players in game, the more the word spreads to previous players. The more re-newels at the time of patch. The more subscriptions in game, the bigger CCP can say to it's "investors" Hey look at successful this release was!
I know it's pretty big tinhat but if I heard it from the mouth of CCP, it wouldn't shock me to know they manipulated the price of PLEX to accelerated renewals/player base.
Actually CCP gains nothing from subscriptions activated via PLEX, once that GTC is bought they made their money already. They have no reason to keep the price low other than to stimulate demand via your 'Tinhat' idea above, but by stimulating demand price would go up and balance out again as it is now. The only way they could control this is to put a cap on PLEX. I honestly don't see how they will be able to do this and still have average players being able to sell them effectively at a moments notice. As stated before the amount created outweighs the amount used, so if there was a price cap, the volume of PLEX would drop dramatically.
To be quite honest I believe CCP should keep the price of PLEX high as it would create more GTC sales, which equates to more money for them.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Minmatar
Vahrokh Consulting
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Posted - 2011.03.25 21:03:00 -
[10]
Quote:
CCP limiting itself to real open-market operations on PLEXes and excluding the possibility to create PLEX from thin air (or destroy them for that matter).
Direct intervention on PLEXes is not needed at all and would really ruin the feeling of "pure market" EvE permeates.
What CCP could do is muuuuuuuuuuuch more evil.
Dr. EyjoG could decide to play
The way to do it is to become market maker like FOREX MMs are. In that case he has insider / early information that is of so higher quality than ours than he could crush the players like little fleas.
All of this without ever using a single CCP "godlike power tool" to make PLEXes vanish or appear out of nowhere.
Quote:
the intention of PLEX was to take a massive interest-free loan from the EVE playerbase
Indeed, PLEXes are a real "futures" equity. People pay today for future consigment of game time.
But not just that.
Through the PLEX for <xyz> and PLEX-transactions (i.e. one to buy restricted dressing and so on) taxable RL earnings become tax free and CCP keeps the difference!
Auditing | Research | 3rd Party | Collateral Holding | EvE RL Charity |
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.25 21:14:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha
But not just that. Through the PLEX for <xyz> and PLEX-transactions (i.e. one to buy restricted dressing and so on) taxable RL earnings become tax free and CCP keeps the difference!
You had me up to that point, but now I'm sitting here scratching my head going "huh?"
From CCP's perspective, they already paid their taxes on it through the original purchase that created the PLEX (or the GTC used to create PLEX).
From a player's perspective (one that buys PLEX with ISK, that is), to argue that RL money saved by purchasing this way could somehow be equated to money earned in RL the player does not pay taxes for... well, I guess you might be able to. Still, that's quite a stretch you're trying to pull there.
Either way, even if we accept that viewpoint, it's very important to mention that the conversion is hardly 1:1. Or, in other words, that not all people that purchase something with PLEX that they purchased with ISK would have ever bothered to spend RL cash to buy that same thing.
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Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.25 21:17:00 -
[12]
I honestly don't see how they can intervene and not **** the whole game up. They gonna buy plexes to raise the price? By creating isk out of thin air? That's a GREAT idea, considering their worry about inflation .. Not. Or perhaps they'll just slam some plex into the market out of thin air, that's a nice idea - free game time, and it costs out of their RL wallet and doesn't alter our game as such .. but the actual implementation of it? A 1 day dump to buy orders wont do anything, they'd have to participate in the market for an extended period of time to keep plex prices low. There's really very little they can do.
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Syds Sinclair
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Posted - 2011.03.25 21:51:00 -
[13]
..Here is my hierarchy of outcomes/motivations for a yay or nay vote on CCP involvement of the PLEX prices:
PRO intervene to lower the PLEX price
~ Keep more subscribers ~ good for obvious reasons.
~ More $$ (or whatever those crazy Icelanders use as ISK) into CCP's pockets ~again obvious reasons
CON intervene
~ Free Market baby
It would be optimal if they could intervene and manipulate by using accounts that don't look like they are what they infect are, to keep the speculation game out of it.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:09:00 -
[14]
My take on this is that there is a "right" price range.
There are big problems with the price falling too low ...
With a low isk price in the 150million range the $ an hour equivalent starts looking good to more average players. Before all of you start going on about the comparison to your Rl income rate, start considering your after tax rate, the relatively lower rate people would be happy to take for shooting at red boxes while watching tv istead of spending more time selling shoes in the mall or whatever
... its not your trade off but the trade off of the incremental provider that matters and plenty of people playing have jobs they don't particlualry want to spend more time doing and some of them like ratting or trading etc.
Also the purchasers of ISK with real $ are important in more than just the $ for that purchase.
If that type of player cannot realize enough isk for their budge of $15 extra bucks a month to buy ships to keep up with their friends with more time to fleet with..those players will leave the game and buy neither their subscription nor the extra gtc to buy isk legally..
Those players are the most vital to keep happy...without them we're lost...
I"d say the risk on the high side is much less to them. The first accoutnsto close would be the 3rd and 4rth accounts which I don't think are game breaking issues. on a play or not basis for most of those that have them.
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Raiku Onni
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:11:00 -
[15]
You are applying way too much though to this. EyjoG didn't notice moon minerals appearing out of thin air for months (years?) yet you seem to think he's stabilizing the market with one extremely carefully crafted statement.
EyjoG could distinguish his buttocks from his elbow.
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Rattus Norwegius
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:15:00 -
[16]
I think you are on the wrong track a bit. The good doctor has stated numerous times that he do not believe in a "right" price for any item, both before and during this presentation. He repeated it just before this announcement. There is also a big, whooping hint in the terms used, "EVE central bank".
Real life (or understanding the economist)
One of the primary functions of a central bank, besides controlling inflation from domestic sources, is to protect the currency from outside manipulations. This is naturally much more important for small economies than big, but Iceland is a small economy, and one that have had problems with manipulation runs in the past. Protecting against such manipulations was one of the (initial) motivations for building a disproportionally large banking industry.
In game (or the special role of PLEX)
There is still one unique thing about PLEX. It is the only major item that can be produced instantaneously in arbitrary quantities*.
As the PLEX proportion of the economy is getting very significant, a (in RL) very rich player, say an aluminum magnate, might create oodles of PLEX and push the price down to 10 isk/PLEX. Why anyone would want to do that is not entirely clear, but a): that has never stopped an EVE player from doing anything, and b): the effects on the entirety of the EVE economy would be dramatic.
The opposite scenario might also happen, of course.
My reading of the announcement is that CCP will consider intervening if the currency (isk) is under threat from such manipulation attempts. The price of PLEX is therefor not the primary interest, but the effect (inflation/deflation) such a manipulation might create.
*Yeah, all trade goods too. But they have unlimited sinks as well, and more importantly are price controlled.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:15:00 -
[17]
If they were to spike too high, the short term "spike" could push a sudden cancelation of accounts by long term players that do find the second and third accounts vital to their game enjoyment... if that drove out great fcs and alliance leaders suddenly.. that would be a problem wit the over all texture of the game..
... that player created environment.. is vital to the games attraction.
A short term supply spike by some sort of implementtion that the market didn't have time to correct for by players changing thier behaviour could have its impact eased by fed (er ccp) intervention
(at some point developers wouldn't want players to be able to buy too much isk per $ creating an inflation but as there is a closed system with money being mostly drained from one player to go to another, its unlikely that a sustained problem to game balance would persist this way.)
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Amrumm
Rhetorical Devices
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:24:00 -
[18]
I doubt CCP is seeing PLEX prices as too high. They have to be a decent value proposition vs. RMT. If currently more PLEX are being created than consumed, a prolonged anti-bot effort by CCP may well reduce PLEX demand further and cause a collapse in price.
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SencneS
Rebellion Against Big Irreversible Dinks
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:26:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Cetus Perle Rote
Actually CCP gains nothing from subscriptions activated via PLEX, once that GTC is bought they made their money already.
This forum has gone down this road before, the fact is we don't know how CCP accounts for PLEXES. If they look at them like gift cards in which they need to keep them on the books until they are consumed, a PLEX in game is a liability.
There is a lot of theories about how CCP looks at PLEXES, I believe they view them as some sort of "Bad" mark on their books. That's why they have these "PLEX FOR < insert natural disaster here>" drives and "Come to Fan Fest with PLEXES!"
It's not unreasonable to believe the amount of PLEXes in game and used per month adjusts the books. So a massive decrease in PLEXes makes their books look better, because they've removed liability. Like I said, it all depends on how CCP looks/records PLEXES. I tend to lean toward CCP keeping Financial standard bookkeep practices in which they would have to record each unused PLEX in game as a liability. But that's just me and few others 
The other theory that once they have the cash they record it as profit and don't care about the sheer amount of PLEXES in game is acceptable as well, but I personally don't like it.
Amarr for Life |
Adrian Idaho
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Posted - 2011.03.25 22:55:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Akita T
Originally by: Adrian Idaho
Also interesting: his statement during the Q&A that more PLEX are being created than used.
That's not news. That's almost common knowledge. And old one at that. Linkage
Well, that data is rather old... Is there anything newer, a blog or QEN that covers 2010 regarding PLEXes?
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.03.25 23:50:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Rattus Norwegius
I think you are on the wrong track a bit. The good doctor has stated numerous times that he do not believe in a "right" price for any item, both before and during this presentation. He repeated it just before this announcement. There is also a big, whooping hint in the terms used, "EVE central bank".
Real life (or understanding the economist)
One of the primary functions of a central bank, besides controlling inflation from domestic sources, is to protect the currency from outside manipulations. This is naturally much more important for small economies than big, but Iceland is a small economy, and one that have had problems with manipulation runs in the past. Protecting against such manipulations was one of the (initial) motivations for building a disproportionally large banking industry.
In game (or the special role of PLEX)
There is still one unique thing about PLEX. It is the only major item that can be produced instantaneously in arbitrary quantities*.
As the PLEX proportion of the economy is getting very significant, a (in RL) very rich player, say an aluminum magnate, might create oodles of PLEX and push the price down to 10 isk/PLEX. Why anyone would want to do that is not entirely clear, but a): that has never stopped an EVE player from doing anything, and b): the effects on the entirety of the EVE economy would be dramatic.
The opposite scenario might also happen, of course.
My reading of the announcement is that CCP will consider intervening if the currency (isk) is under threat from such manipulation attempts. The price of PLEX is therefor not the primary interest, but the effect (inflation/deflation) such a manipulation might create.
*Yeah, all trade goods too. But they have unlimited sinks as well, and more importantly are price controlled.
Generally Agreeing and adddina bit more,
Plex plays a different role then the relative cost of a a Drake to large trimark armor pump. Any concept of "right" price with plex has a lot to do with extranalities beyond the internal virtual world econonomy. (and I listed some above as did you and there are more)
Because it rerpresents by far the easiest and the only legal way to translate real $ to isk and because it influneces the number of active acounts which has at least some corelation to number of humane players (i'd think at somethng far less than 1 to 1 but still a positive corelation even if as extreme as for every 10 plexes activated only one additional person is retained((and its not nearly there)) even if a free floating flex price created the healthiest in game economy, the goal of CCP as a company is to generate the most real money long temr which will only come from attracting and retaining players willing to pay real $ to them for game play privaleges.
While a healthy game econonomy is a valuable game asset, the in game economy can be deemed healthy in many different incarnations. Without the Fun of PVP you'd lose the majority of players for even the non pvp players wouldn't have a very dynamic trading or industrial market if they were all net producers...
The flows of isk an the distribution is quite important to the pleasure of players... and what is and isn't good is subjective but even if precise it can't be left to the whims of how untouched algorithms would play out.
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Alice Celadon
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Posted - 2011.03.26 00:05:00 -
[22]
Just wanted to drop by and say
I TOLD YOU SO!
(those who have been around these boards for long enough know what I mean).
Now for my new prediction that can be blithely ignored. You know all the CCP talk about how CQ and Incarna are going to "increase immersion"? CCP has big investors banking on the idea that EVE as a whole will grow very rapidly if it gets the same *avatar projection/connection* that has made WOW so wildly successful.
When Incarna tanks hard, owing to an abysmal lack of gameplay content and an oversupply of silly fluff, CCP is going to react strongly by coupling existing EVE Markets to avatar-based gameplay.
In other words, look for CCP to make it logistically impossible to ignore the new avatar environments by pressuring the only place in EVE that responds to CCP pressure -- the markets. Do not be surprised when you have to physcially walk your character past clothing stores and gambling dens in order to reprocess your meta2 mods.
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Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
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Posted - 2011.03.26 00:32:00 -
[23]
CCP should learn from real life, the dangers of trying to manipulate a free market.
Bad things happen.
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Rakshasa Taisab
Caldari
Sane Industries Inc.
Initiative Mercenaries
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Posted - 2011.03.26 01:14:00 -
[24]
They're already intervening in the PLEX market... Just look at the PLEX-for-aid campaigns.
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Adunh Slavy
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Posted - 2011.03.26 01:53:00 -
[25]
I would like to know if Doc E prefers the Austrian School or the Keynesian School. If we can get an answer to that, I suspect we'll know more of his thoughts. However, such a decision, intervention, may not be his to make, and he has simply stated a concern given to him.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
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Malcorian Vandsteidt
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Posted - 2011.03.26 02:08:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
I honestly don't see how they can intervene and not **** the whole game up. They gonna buy plexes to raise the price? By creating isk out of thin air? That's a GREAT idea, considering their worry about inflation .. Not. Or perhaps they'll just slam some plex into the market out of thin air, that's a nice idea - free game time, and it costs out of their RL wallet and doesn't alter our game as such .. but the actual implementation of it? A 1 day dump to buy orders wont do anything, they'd have to participate in the market for an extended period of time to keep plex prices low. There's really very little they can do.
Actually All they need to do is Create (Isk) On a CCP character that isn't tagged CCP, Buy out half the market or more and reseed those same plexes for a lower value.
ISK has no actual Value, Plexes do, So the same plexes you wanted to sell fro xxx ISK do, CCP simply reinserts the bought plexes back into the market at a lower value.
This changes nothing as no plexes were added, or removed and the exact same amount stay in circulation.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.26 02:19:00 -
[27]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
This changes nothing as no plexes were added, or removed and the exact same amount stay in circulation. However all plex prices Drop drastically due to these New "competitors" especially if CCP does this over the course of say.. 6 months,making sure the players selling high have no choice but to lower the plex prices in order to compete.
It changes the isk supply, for a start, by creating isk out of thing air. Secondly, this artificial change to supply/demand will have a temporary effect, hence my comment that they'd have to take part in a massive market manipulation going on over a long period of time. Throwing a few billion isk at it wont effect the price for more than an hour, throwing tens of billions wont change it for more than a day or two, get the picture now how CCP intervention isn't so simple or has no side-effects?
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Malcorian Vandsteidt
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Posted - 2011.03.26 02:36:00 -
[28]
Quote:
It changes the isk supply, for a start, by creating isk out of thing air. Secondly, this artificial change to supply/demand will have a temporary effect, hence my comment that they'd have to take part in a massive market manipulation going on over a long period of time. Throwing a few billion isk at it wont effect the price for more than an hour, throwing tens of billions wont change it for more than a day or two, get the picture now how CCP intervention isn't so simple or has no side-effects?
Small incursions over a period of time has great effect in any economy. Just look at history.
All ISK is created out of thin air. It's called Mission Agent's and Bounties. CCP going .addisk CCPmarketer 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, then buying half the market up isn't going to change much in the way of ISK itself. That ISK would make it into game eventually anyway.
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
ISK has no value in Game and whether more is created by CCP in any quantity would never imbalance the game or ISK creatd by players every day.
That's why CCP would use this strategy over any other. It's less Noticibal.. and less messy although more complicated. Also to change an economy it takes time, Short spikes will never work, however long term intervention on this level would.
I mean Honestly.. would you rather buy a plex for 400 million? Or for 280 Million. I think the answer is obvious. So CCP will put the High plex sellers out of Business. Unless they Conform to CCP's seed prices.
Another way to do this would simply be to have NPC stations sell plexes at a set value. Then in order for a player to make any money from the plex he would have to price it lower then the NPC stations.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.26 02:47:00 -
[29]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Quote:
It changes the isk supply, for a start, by creating isk out of thing air. Secondly, this artificial change to supply/demand will have a temporary effect, hence my comment that they'd have to take part in a massive market manipulation going on over a long period of time. Throwing a few billion isk at it wont effect the price for more than an hour, throwing tens of billions wont change it for more than a day or two, get the picture now how CCP intervention isn't so simple or has no side-effects?
Small incursions over a period of time has great effect in any economy. Just look at history.
All ISK is created out of thin air. It's called Mission Agent's and Bounties. CCP going .addisk CCPmarketer 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, then buying half the market up isn't going to change much in the way of ISK itself. That ISK would make it into game eventually anyway.
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
ISK has no value in Game and whether more is created by CCP in any quantity would never imbalance the game or ISK creatd by players every day.
That's why CCP would use this strategy over any other. It's less Noticibal.. and less messy although more complicated. Also to change an economy it takes time, Short spikes will never work, however long term intervention on this level would.
I mean Honestly.. would you rather buy a plex for 400 million? Or for 280 Million. I think the answer is obvious. So CCP will put the High plex sellers out of Business. Unless they Conform to CCP's seed prices.
Another way to do this would simply be to have NPC stations sell plexes at a set value. Then in order for a player to make any money from the plex he would have to price it lower then the NPC stations.
100 trillion .. ? What??
They can't just buy all the plexes then dump the market, day after day .. ANY amount of isk is imbalanced, but enough isk to noticeably and long-term affect the price of plexes in the way you are suggesting would be very imbalancing..oh good grief, I've no idea why I'm even "debating" this with you, you're the same guy from all those other ******ed threads. Go back to the "I have 1million shares, eventually they'll all sell" thread and try not to bring such ignorance into every thread you read.
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
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Posted - 2011.03.26 03:32:00 -
[30]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.
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Atima
Minmatar
House of Marbles
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Posted - 2011.03.26 03:39:00 -
[31]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Quote:
It changes the isk supply, for a start, by creating isk out of thing air. Secondly, this artificial change to supply/demand will have a temporary effect, hence my comment that they'd have to take part in a massive market manipulation going on over a long period of time. Throwing a few billion isk at it wont effect the price for more than an hour, throwing tens of billions wont change it for more than a day or two, get the picture now how CCP intervention isn't so simple or has no side-effects?
Small incursions over a period of time has great effect in any economy. Just look at history.
All ISK is created out of thin air. It's called Mission Agent's and Bounties. CCP going .addisk CCPmarketer 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, then buying half the market up isn't going to change much in the way of ISK itself. That ISK would make it into game eventually anyway.
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
ISK has no value in Game and whether more is created by CCP in any quantity would never imbalance the game or ISK creatd by players every day.
That's why CCP would use this strategy over any other. It's less Noticibal.. and less messy although more complicated. Also to change an economy it takes time, Short spikes will never work, however long term intervention on this level would.
I mean Honestly.. would you rather buy a plex for 400 million? Or for 280 Million. I think the answer is obvious. So CCP will put the High plex sellers out of Business. Unless they Conform to CCP's seed prices.
Another way to do this would simply be to have NPC stations sell plexes at a set value. Then in order for a player to make any money from the plex he would have to price it lower then the NPC stations.
I'm beginning to think that this guy is special.
Lets hope they don't stay around to long.
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.26 03:59:00 -
[32]
Originally by: Alice Celadon
[...]When Incarna tanks hard, owing to an abysmal lack of gameplay content and an oversupply of silly fluff, CCP is going to react strongly by coupling existing EVE Markets to avatar-based gameplay.
In other words, look for CCP to make it logistically impossible to ignore the new avatar environments by pressuring the only place in EVE that responds to CCP pressure -- the markets. Do not be surprised when you have to physcially walk your character past clothing stores and gambling dens in order to reprocess your meta2 mods.
Or, they could add something that everybody wants, something that might actually make some degree of RP sense...
...STOREFRONTS.
We all (hopefully) know what they are, and why they would be a good idea, but also why it would be a bad idea to have them searchable from "regular EVE" or interface with the market directly in any way.
I'd call that a win-win situation.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
_
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Cetus Perle Rote
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Posted - 2011.03.26 04:01:00 -
[33]
100 trillion isk = 50000 players pulling 2bn a day from faucets. I'd say maybe 100 billion a day, maybe a bit more.
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Hieronimus Rex
Minmatar
Infinitus Sapientia
New Eden Research.
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Posted - 2011.03.26 06:28:00 -
[34]
Originally by: Cetus Perle Rote
100 trillion isk = 50000 players pulling 2bn a day from faucets. I'd say maybe 100 billion a day, maybe a bit more.
Your use of logic has no place on MD 
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clixoras
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Posted - 2011.03.26 10:13:00 -
[35]
First of all, CCP already intervenes with the markets by adjusting drop rates / insurances etc.
The 'problem' with the PLEX market is that it's heavily manipulated. I would dare to say that all spikes of the past year where due to manipulation (most of them confirmed by the parties doing so).
Second, stop pretending EVE's economy is real one, rich players generally sit on their isk while in RL they would invest or put it in a bank where it's invested for them.
If you want to improve circulation of isk, look at ways that the fatcats can invest safely into corps. Corps would put the isk to work and with the profit they would be able to buy PLEXES.
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The Breadmaster
|
Posted - 2011.03.26 12:04:00 -
[36]
Greetings,
There is a lot of fancy debate in this thread, but why CCP would
wish to regulate the price of PLEX is rather simple:
High ISK / plex = more players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
fewer players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Low ISK / plex = fewer players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
more players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Whatever price point CCP wants to maintain PLEX will always be relative to
the "cost of living" in game.
Furthermore, the above relationship is a strong incentive for CCP to oscillate
the ISK price of plex relative to this "cost of living" in game. There are a
lot of cute/underhanded ways CCP could achieve this... EVE is their playground
afterall.
Bread
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Scott Ryder
Amarr
Ministry of War
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Posted - 2011.03.26 12:50:00 -
[37]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Quote:
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway.
Indeed, you sir are correct
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Caldariftw123
|
Posted - 2011.03.26 12:53:00 -
[38]
Edited by: Caldariftw123 on 26/03/2011 12:53:06
Originally by: Scott Ryder
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway.
Indeed, you sir are correct
More like ~1 trillion, after sinks.
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Mister Rocknrolla
|
Posted - 2011.03.26 14:19:00 -
[39]
Originally by: SencneS
Originally by: Cetus Perle Rote
Actually CCP gains nothing from subscriptions activated via PLEX, once that GTC is bought they made their money already.
This forum has gone down this road before, the fact is we don't know how CCP accounts for PLEXES. If they look at them like gift cards in which they need to keep them on the books until they are consumed, a PLEX in game is a liability.
There is a lot of theories about how CCP looks at PLEXES, I believe they view them as some sort of "Bad" mark on their books. That's why they have these "PLEX FOR < insert natural disaster here>" drives and "Come to Fan Fest with PLEXES!"
It's not unreasonable to believe the amount of PLEXes in game and used per month adjusts the books. So a massive decrease in PLEXes makes their books look better, because they've removed liability. Like I said, it all depends on how CCP looks/records PLEXES. I tend to lean toward CCP keeping Financial standard bookkeep practices in which they would have to record each unused PLEX in game as a liability. But that's just me and few others
The other theory that once they have the cash they record it as profit and don't care about the sheer amount of PLEXES in game is acceptable as well, but I personally don't like it.
And what about the 'next' step? For what reason would a corporation what to adjust it's liabilities and make it's books look better?
I suspect an even bigger announcement coming from CCP before the end of summer.
People who step back and look at a lot of the OOG activity will connect the dots.
 |
Dirk Decibel
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Posted - 2011.03.26 15:03:00 -
[40]
Originally by: Rakshasa Taisab
They're already intervening in the PLEX market... Just look at the PLEX-for-aid campaigns.
Any additional use for PLEX other than gametime could be considered intervening indeed. Like paying for PLEX for fanfest and for HD live streams of that same fanfest drives demand up and most likely prices.
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Malcorian Vandsteidt
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Posted - 2011.03.26 19:52:00 -
[41]
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.
Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.
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Caldariftw123
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Posted - 2011.03.26 20:08:00 -
[42]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.
Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.
The amount of isk required out of thin air to manipulate the plex market EVERY day is a large enough % of the total daily created isk (which is roughly 1trillion isk) that it would have significant impact on the economy and plex market beyond what you are claiming. PLEX is the single largest market in all of EVE. Not only that but what you are proposing will increase the price in the med-long run of plex because it creates artificial demand, more isk chasing the same number of plexes. You can't simply buy them all and dump on the buy orders to remove them then relist even more plex at a lower price to push the price down day after day after day after day to move the market.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.03.26 20:25:00 -
[43]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.
We have been given the data by developers.. at least one 24 hour flash reading to give us a clue on numbers we'd have very little way to estimate within an order of magnitude
Quote:
A freebie, last 24hrs transaction stats for a selection of faucets and sinks - as you can see, Concord is a very generous organisation!
Trade Total
* Market Transaction 5,848,221,406,963
Faucets
* Bounty Prizes 876,039,478,466
* Agent Mission Reward 68,923,141,163
* Agent Mission Time Bonus 63,450,447,585
* Insurance Payouts 111,942,877,603
Sinks
* Sales Tax 6,227,911,218
* Brokers fee 6,733,818,276
* PI Construction Costs 7,575,185,000
* PI Import Tax 290,289,843
* PI Export Tax 3,355,153,925
* Insurance Cost 43,021,823,156
* Clone Activation 20,197,210,000
* Sovereignty Bill 59,332,000,000
* LP Store 135,343,150,000
Note - that is only a snapshot of some of the stats, others like NPC orders are not there and such. Consider this a freebie until a future QEN and no, we won't provide more or derail the blog!
dev post
Someone above echoed my main point the RMT is the tail that wags the dog on the value of plex and CCP 's concern.
RMT creates all sorts of huge problems for the game balance (more non players playing the game among other things), customer service (increased hassles do to incentive for key loggers to steal as), and at some point and to some degree potential issues for international banking laws which they would like to cast in the best light as possible by making isk in game worth the ablity for players to control extra characters, or play for free, not to recieve RL cash.
A stable exchange rate will also tend to maximize volume by increasing the comfort level of cash purchasers of gtc/plex and incremental revenue doesn't hurt them either.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.03.26 20:54:00 -
[44]
Edited by: Diomedes Calypso on 26/03/2011 20:55:01
In the past I did my best guess using plex volume data from the forge and QEN data to try to come up with an order of magnitude sort of number for the amount of Plex sold by GTC buyers and sold for isk.
past wall of text of mine
Its a really rough number but if you read my reasoning I think its in the order of 500 billion isk bought by players with real $ through ccp meands. It could be twice or half that but in that genral range of magnitude.
It is an important number relative to the faucets and sinks we were presented in the referenced dev post above.... a huge factor that could really warp game play should some temporary impmact of a game mechanic (or a few instituted simaltaneusly ((ending datacores and vastly reducing botting in a fell swoop ??)). Even if the market could likely correct the exchnge rate over time.. a jar of that order would be like a few Japan earthquakes happening simaltaneusly throughout the world... even free marketers would support some intervetion to calm the markets.
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Diomedes Calypso
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Posted - 2011.03.26 21:10:00 -
[45]
Originally by: The Breadmaster
Greetings,
There is a lot of fancy debate in this thread, but why CCP would
wish to regulate the price of PLEX is rather simple:
High ISK / plex = more players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
fewer players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Low ISK / plex = fewer players RMT plex to flip into isk, while
more players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Whatever price point CCP wants to maintain PLEX will always be relative to
the "cost of living" in game.
Furthermore, the above relationship is a strong incentive for CCP to oscillate
the ISK price of plex relative to this "cost of living" in game. There are a
lot of cute/underhanded ways CCP could achieve this... EVE is their playground
afterall.
Bread
I think you put some of my main points in a way people could better understand
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Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
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Posted - 2011.03.26 23:42:00 -
[46]
Edited by: Voogru on 26/03/2011 23:47:08
Edited by: Voogru on 26/03/2011 23:45:32
Originally by: Adunh Slavy
I would like to know if Doc E prefers the Austrian School or the Keynesian School. If we can get an answer to that, I suspect we'll know more of his thoughts. However, such a decision, intervention, may not be his to make, and he has simply stated a concern given to him.
The Austrian school requires a hard money, or rather, no money printing by a central government at all. EVE's currency is a debt free currency (meaning we don't pay interest on our money supply like everyone does in the real world).
For a better explanation, watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swkq2E8mswI
I am personally fairly Austrian in my views. I recently changed my stance on monetary issues though in favor of a debt free currency rather than a metalic standard. The reason for that is simple, the people who control our current money supply also control the metal, so we're right back into the same mess.
While EVE has ISK faucets, the faucets do not give out ISK unless an activity is performed, meaning money is not given to players who are idle, when you kill Estamel and it drops an Estamel Invulnerablity field, there is now a product for ISK to chase.
When you increase the supply of ISK and the supply of products increase in EVE, prices remain stable. If suddenly more ISK is created than products, prices start to rise because you have more ISK chasing after fewer products.
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Alain Kinsella
Minmatar
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Posted - 2011.03.27 06:42:00 -
[47]
Originally by: Caldariftw123
The amount of isk required out of thin air to manipulate the plex market EVERY day is a large enough % of the total daily created isk (which is roughly 1trillion isk) that it would have significant impact on the economy and plex market beyond what you are claiming. PLEX is the single largest market in all of EVE. Not only that but what you are proposing will increase the price in the med-long run of plex because it creates artificial demand, more isk chasing the same number of plexes. You can't simply buy them all and dump on the buy orders to remove them then relist even more plex at a lower price to push the price down day after day after day after day to move the market.
Two possible (and relatively 'free') sources of PLEX that CCP has:
-> PLEX destroyed in combat (shady, but would explain why they don't want to release this number)
-> PLEX confiscated from banned accounts (I think this is more likely)
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Adunh Slavy
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Posted - 2011.03.27 13:41:00 -
[48]
Edited by: Adunh Slavy on 27/03/2011 13:43:04
Originally by: Voogru
Originally by: Adunh Slavy
... Austrian School or the Keynesian School ...
The Austrian school requires a hard money, or rather, no money printing by a central government at all. EVE's currency is a debt free currency ...
Quite true, however my question was more aimed at intervention. Keynesians being quite happy to screw things up, Austrians being happy to let the market decide.
As for your comments on Real World Monetary systems, we see the same way. Gold supply manipulations and the Silver/Gold wars of the 1700s and 1800s clearly show hard money isn't free from manipulations. Not to mention, the ridges on coins exist for a reason.
Ah yeah, Secret of OZ is a good movie.
Here's a blog about some of that sort of thing,
http://diagonalme.blogspot.com/2011/03/how-to-solve-state-debts-is-in-congress.html
Support HR 1098! :)
The Real Space Initiative - V7
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Ludacrys
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Posted - 2011.03.27 18:50:00 -
[49]
Plex price is low > more people buy plex for his accounts > price increases
Plex price is high > more people buy plex with RL money to sell > price decreases
If Plex is used in the future for cosmetic reasons its price is going to skyrocket and a lot of people wont be able to afford them to pay their accounts anymore.
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Breaker77
Gallente
Reclamation Industries
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Posted - 2011.03.27 18:54:00 -
[50]
Originally by: Ludacrys
If Plex is used in the future for cosmetic reasons its price is going to skyrocket and a lot of people wont be able to afford them to pay their accounts anymore.
When I was a kid we had to pay RL money for our accounts, there was no skill queue, and we had to train learning skills uphill both ways!
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Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
We Are John Galt
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Posted - 2011.03.27 22:22:00 -
[51]
Originally by: Adunh Slavy
Support HR 1098! :)
I wish it was that easy, the politicians are bought and paid for by the fed. If the congress performs any actions against the fed, the fed can single handedly collapse the economy, just like the central bank did when Jackson was refusing to renew the banks charter.
Sadly, Jackson forgot to outlaw fractional reserve banking.
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Adunh Slavy
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Posted - 2011.03.27 23:45:00 -
[52]
Originally by: Voogru
... Jackson ...
For fear of getting this thread locked, I agree. Central Banks have been playing the same game for a few hundred years.
Kind of brings us back to why I asked which school the Doc prefered; and mentioned his concern may not be his so much as that of Eve's Central Bankers, as it were.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
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Voogru
Gallente
Massive Damage
We Are John Galt
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Posted - 2011.03.28 00:08:00 -
[53]
Originally by: Adunh Slavy
Originally by: Voogru
... Jackson ...
For fear of getting this thread locked, I agree. Central Banks have been playing the same game for a few hundred years.
Kind of brings us back to why I asked which school the Doc prefered; and mentioned his concern may not be his so much as that of Eve's Central Bankers, as it were.
The thing is there is very little incentive for him to manipulate the currency in EVE, because if they really screw things up, people can just stop playing the game.
In the real world that's not much of an option.
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Taedrin
Gallente
The Green Cross
Controlled Chaos
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Posted - 2011.03.28 02:13:00 -
[54]
Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
Edited by: Florestan Bronstein on 25/03/2011 20:27:12
EyjoG: CCP "may or may not" intervene on the PLEX market to guarantee its stability (without disclosed targets)
And here I thought "may or may not" generally meant that they simply weren't going to rule out any options, and didn't mean that they were trying to subvertly accomplish anything.
----------
Originally by: Dr Fighter
"how do you know when youve had a repro accident"
Theres modules missing and morphite in your mineral pile.
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Caldari Citizen20090217
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Posted - 2011.03.28 14:28:00 -
[55]
:warning - tinfoil hattery from someone with no economic knowledge incoming:
Maybe the statement that CCP may intervene in PLEX prices to preserve stability is a direct response to the perceived threat that aggrieved macroers/RMTers could retaliate against CCP bans by manipulating PLEX prices and thus either hurting CCPs bottom line or making RMT isk a more attractive prospect to players.
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enterprisePSI
Unimatrix 0.1
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Posted - 2011.03.28 14:43:00 -
[56]
tin foil armor integrity down to 50%
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
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Posted - 2011.03.28 21:23:00 -
[57]
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The average daily ISK created is around 100 trillion anyway. (Or so).
Try talking out of your ass less. You're off by two orders of magnitude.
Yea as if you knew, If your not a CCP dev then your talking out of your ass also so stop being a hypcrit. The point is the isk created every day is more then the ammount needed to do what I am talking about.
And as several people pointed out, we do actually have pretty hard numbers for this sort of thing. Please start doing some research before you start making up numbers and insulting others.
______________________________
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Selene D'Celeste
Caldari
The D'Celeste Trading Company
ISK Six
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Posted - 2011.03.28 22:03:00 -
[58]
Originally by: Caldari Citizen20090217
:warning - tinfoil hattery from someone with no economic knowledge incoming:
Maybe the statement that CCP may intervene in PLEX prices to preserve stability is a direct response to the perceived threat that aggrieved macroers/RMTers could retaliate against CCP bans by manipulating PLEX prices and thus either hurting CCPs bottom line or making RMT isk a more attractive prospect to players.
There's also a chance that it was just a random comment by a guy who doesn't think that manipulating plex someday is a big deal, and just mentioned that it's something they could do if there was a reason?
______________________________
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Akita T
Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force
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Posted - 2011.03.28 22:59:00 -
[59]
Originally by: The Breadmaster
There is a lot of fancy debate in this thread, but why CCP would wish to regulate the price of PLEX is rather simple:
High ISK / plex = more players RMT plex to flip into isk, while fewer players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Low ISK / plex = fewer players RMT plex to flip into isk, while more players RMT plex to keep accounts active.
Whatever price point CCP wants to maintain PLEX will always be relative to the "cost of living" in game.
There may be some player speculation now and then (like what usually happens before any campaign where CCP announces it will add some more uses for PLEX, from fanfest passes to donations or even what happened when "PLEX for remap" was just talk), but mostly, the easier it is to make ISK ingame while nothing else changes, the higher PLEX prices go.
All CCP really needs to do to "regulate the price of PLEX" is to not even touch it, but instead, influence the ISK earning potential.
The "cost of living" as you call it (which is a ratio between "ISK earning potential" and the "basket price of typical consumer goods") is mostly self-regulating, since the "basket price" tends to follow the "earning potential", with some non-trivial variations between product classes, but overall, it tends to remain mostly stable. BTW, the PLEX should be included in that basket price too.
Alternatively, either add or remove uses for PLEX, that would also do the trick.
_
Make ISK||Build||React||1k papercuts
_
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.03.29 02:06:00 -
[60]
Originally by: Akita T
There may be some player speculation now and then (like what usually happens before any campaign where CCP announces it will add some more uses for PLEX, from fanfest passes to donations or even what happened when "PLEX for remap" was just talk), but mostly, the easier it is to make ISK ingame while nothing else changes, the higher PLEX prices go.
Offhand, I would say the supply of PLEX is much more variable than the demand for PLEX and the large price swings we see are driven by people coming into the game (or returning) for the expansions and selling large quantities of PLEX. My understanding is that Dr. E was refering to this in his remarks, but I will withhold any additional comments on them until I get a chance to see them for myself.
Longer term, you may be right that the "secular" price of PLEX (as opposed to the cyclical) is determined by inflationary factors (the supply of isk or the "cost of living") and in that way PLEX is the "gold standard" for Eve. But remember that the Eve economy still needs to digest that seasonal influx of PLEX much like Spain in the sixteenth century did every time a ship laden with gold and silver arrived from the new world.
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Florestan Bronstein
Amarr
Taishi Combine
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Posted - 2011.03.29 08:16:00 -
[61]
Edited by: Florestan Bronstein on 29/03/2011 08:40:08
Originally by: Selene D'Celeste
There's also a chance that it was just a random comment by a guy who doesn't think that manipulating plex someday is a big deal, and just mentioned that it's something they could do if there was a reason?
Have you seen EyjoG's face when he announced this? my impression was that he was actually looking forward to see the fallout on MD and the PLEX market resulting from his statements.
I think it's a pretty interesting experiment, too (first time EyjoG does sth useful imo^^) - but then I am pretty deep into the whole "central banks managing expectations" thing anyways.
Edit: according to this blog the verbatim quote is
Quote:
"EVE Central Bank may, or may not, take actions to intervene with the PLEX market if its stability is severely threatened. Important to note that it does not mean that there is a specific target for PLEX prixes or money supply in the future."
Edit2: Looking at the posts in this thread I really seem to be the only one who believes EyjoG that he is looking to stabilize the PLEX price, not to fix it at some arbitrary level.
From my POV the goal is to immunize the market against short-term disruptions (maybe EyjoG was surprised how long it takes the PLEX market to return to its "natural" equlibrium (which is not natural at all) after each manipulation? maybe he is getting scared of what players with huge PLEX stocks could do to the market), not to enforce some long-term price goal as most people in this thread seem to believe. The equilibrium we observe on the PLEX market is obviously not a stable one as the status quo accumulates huge stockpiles that will eventually be returned to the market. PLEX demand and PLEX prices are artificially high and at some point this will come back to haunt the EVE economy. It would be hard and detrimental to CCP to return the market forcefully to the "real" global equilibrium, so the announcement "we will stabilize the progression from the current equilibrium to one with a lower build-up of stocks to protect the market from massive disruptions if necessary" (note that I don't interpret his statements as "we will maintain the current local equlibrium forever") makes perfect sense to me.
too much /tinfoilhat discussion in here for my taste.
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Florestan Bronstein
Amarr
Taishi Combine
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Posted - 2011.03.29 08:49:00 -
[62]
The situation I would dread if I were in EyjoG's shoes is one in which so many people use PLEX stocks as a store of value that the mere rumor of a (long-term) decline in PLEX prices could lead to a massive market panic (and there would be very good reasons to panic in this case).
Ironically the announcement to protect the market from crashing has the potential to make PLEX even more attractive as a store of value.
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Florestan Bronstein
Amarr
Taishi Combine
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Posted - 2011.03.29 08:59:00 -
[63]
Edited by: Florestan Bronstein on 29/03/2011 09:03:27
A 3rd thought:
Maybe EyjoG doesn't like Greenspan and part of his desire for more ISK sinks/less faucets is an attempt to put deflationary pressure on PLEX prices?
(I know that some of the options I have listed contradict each other - but I am not too concerned with that)
edit: rgd the Greenspan reference: if you have a bubble in just one sector of your economy, do you rise interest rates to fight it (depressing the economy as a whole) or do you hope that the market will fix itself?
In the eyes of many observers Greenspan did stick with the 2nd option for too long - he told the public numerous times that he was really concerned about the development of the housing market but was very reluctant to risk depressing the whole economy just to fix this one bubble even when the public obviously didn't react to his cautionary advice.
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Michael J Fox
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Posted - 2011.03.29 09:13:00 -
[64]
Edited by: Michael J Fox on 29/03/2011 09:13:30
edit: forgot question mark
so if there is currently a 'bubble' surrounding plex prices what would you predict the value to be once it bursts and can you estimate a 'burst' point (weeks/months/years)?
I personally remain unconvinced that there is a bubble, i think the current plex prices may be here to stay.
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Herufaia
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Posted - 2011.03.29 09:18:00 -
[65]
Originally by: Cyaxares II
Originally by: Malcorian Vandsteidt
The intention of the Plex was so players who could not afford the subscription could still play while players who could afford more could make ISK instead of buying it from RMTers. (RMT Battle).
the intention of PLEX was to take a massive interest-free loan from the EVE playerbase.
LOL
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Florestan Bronstein
Amarr
Taishi Combine
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Posted - 2011.03.29 10:02:00 -
[66]
Originally by: Michael J Fox
so if there is currently a 'bubble' surrounding plex prices what would you predict the value to be once it bursts and can you estimate a 'burst' point (weeks/months/years)?
no & no.
If you could do that convincingly the bubble wouldn't exist anymore.
I have 2 assumptions:
(1) EyjoG is thinking as an economist not as a CCP drone (this assumption sets me apart from most other posters in this thread).
(2) People are hoarding PLEX as a store of value (because PLEX is widely perceived as the only item in EVE that has some intrinsic value).
The current PLEX demand is determined by demand for consumption and demand for hoarding.
The big question is if people are content to hoard more and more PLEX in their hangars without ever selling/using them.
At that point you can argue either way and if people think EVE will continue forever they might indeed do this, if enough rich veterans leave the game for good with large quantities of PLEX in their hangars this might happen, too.
I expect the demand of players to hoard PLEX to be largely saturated eventually (why would Akita T want to hold more than 200 PLEX? at some point there is no rational reason to increase stockpiles) and I also expect some of the existing stockpiles to find their way back onto the market (what point is there in hoarding "value" if you are never going to use it?). My intuition is that in the long run we will see an equilibrium in which PLEX demand is only slightly larger than PLEX consumption (new players will always want to build some safety buffer, some old players will always leave the game).
I am mainly trying to make sense of EyjoG's statements (without resorting to CCP conspiracy theories) and when you assume that he is a little scared of a PLEX bubble bursting some of his actions line up quite nicely.
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Adunh Slavy
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Posted - 2011.03.29 12:54:00 -
[67]
Edited by: Adunh Slavy on 29/03/2011 12:54:26
One thing that would stabilize the PLEX market is stop these PLEX charity drives, PLEX for fanfest, PLEX for whatever.
IMO the only acceptable use for PLEX is subscription time and what CCP had mentioned last year, vanity items and something like "vanity points" which may be fractional PLEX after some fashion.
All these external influences create the market instability. If CCP wants to do a charity drive, then do a charity drive with paypal and debt cards.
My message to CCP: Stop jacking with your game and then wonder why it gets out of balance and then have to spend resources on balancing what you your self unbalanced. Central Banks - Always blame everyone but them selves.
The Real Space Initiative - V7
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Claire Voyant
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Posted - 2011.03.29 14:08:00 -
[68]
Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
why would Akita T want to hold more than 200 PLEX?
Why would Akita T want to hold more than 70B isk?
I assume Akita can afford to do both and like any smart investor doesn't want to put all her eggs in one basket.
Also, sometimes you are not betting on the way you hope things will go. Sometimes you bet on the way you fear things will go. Low PLEX prices mean Eve is doing good. New players are coming into the game buying characters and ships. Much higher PLEX prices are not a good sign for the game. Either serious inflation or player stagnation (most likely both.)
Of course Akita T could also "cash out" (i.e. RMT) but I don't think you are implying she should do that, are you?
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Adrian Idaho
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Posted - 2011.03.29 15:12:00 -
[69]
Originally by: Claire Voyant
Originally by: Florestan Bronstein
why would Akita T want to hold more than 200 PLEX?
Also, sometimes you are not betting on the way you hope things will go. Sometimes you bet on the way you fear things will go. Low PLEX prices mean Eve is doing good. New players are coming into the game buying characters and ships. Much higher PLEX prices are not a good sign for the game. Either serious inflation or player stagnation (most likely both.)
Huh? High PLEX prices could also mean that a new generation of younger players is making enough money to buy their game time through ISK, and low prices could mean that fewer people are willing to extend their game time. Steadily high PLEX prices might also result from a RL recession (fewer people willing to pay real currency for a game).
Therefore, I don't think that you can determine anything about the health of EVE from the PLEX price.
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