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Icanti	Posted - 2011.06.11 18:36:00 - [1] Edited by: Icanti on 11/06/2011 18:38:34 Edited by: Icanti on 11/06/2011 18:35:57 Hello.... Just logged in then, and was greeted with a new advert, which said something along the lines of "plexes are rising, is this a boom for traders or a bubble waiting to burst?" Sorry as it only displays once I didn't catch the exact wording. Clicking on the ad goes to.... http://wiki.eveonline.com/en/wiki/30_days_Concord_Pilot_License_Extension Whats the deal with this add? Are CCP trying to scare people into buying more plex?
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.11 18:47:00 - [2] Theyre trying to scare people into SELLING their Plex. They did the same last week when the price was around 410. It doesn't only display once :) Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u
Azthais	Posted - 2011.06.11 18:59:00 - [3] Everyone sells their PLEX -> PLEX lowers -> Incarnia comes out and PLEX rises back to normal. Smart traders hoard their PLEX's until Incarnia, when PLEX rises due to AUR being implemented. And don't bother yelling at me for "ruining" trading stuff, any and all traders, smart or stupid, will know this already. CCP can try all they like to drop the prices, but it's not going to help much.
Rhivre Caldari TarNec	Posted - 2011.06.11 19:25:00 - [4] Unless all the people who panic bought stacks of plex the other week are also thinking "Yay! plex for aurum, we can cash in!"
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.06.11 19:34:00 - [5] Originally by: Tutskii Theyre trying to scare people into SELLING their Plex. Well, actually scare people into buying GTCs and selling PLEX. Pretty good plan too, because PLEX are probably about to take a dip so now is a good time to buy GTCs before the Incarna rush. I assure you though, CCP is not trying to scare any of us MD types into selling our PLEX.
Grossly Inferior Jeans	Posted - 2011.06.11 21:07:00 - [6] Though it is always fun to see weak willed weekend traders 100,000 isking eachother in stacks of 20+ in a rush to unload.
Brock Nelson Caldari T2 Technologies Unlimited	Posted - 2011.06.11 22:05:00 - [7] Plex dropped to a cool 365 in Jita 4-4
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.11 22:09:00 - [8] Originally by: Claire Voyant Originally by: Tutskii Theyre trying to scare people into SELLING their Plex. Well, actually scare people into buying GTCs and selling PLEX. Pretty good plan too, because PLEX are probably about to take a dip so now is a good time to buy GTCs before the Incarna rush. I assure you though, CCP is not trying to scare any of us MD types into selling our PLEX. I assure you that more than a few MD types sold their PLEX. Some of them, before the price dropped too much. I think its safe to assume that they are very happy they did, what with the massive price drop and all. Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u
Grossly Inferior Jeans	Posted - 2011.06.11 22:37:00 - [9] Edited by: Grossly Inferior Jeans on 11/06/2011 22:37:07 We just saw a huge PLEX fluctuation a week or two ago. Did the prices stay at 445? Prices are only going down from today right? (sigh) I guess some people just aren't. that. smart.
Judicator Saturnius Amarr Viziam	Posted - 2011.06.11 22:52:00 - [10] CCP: "Problem?"

Tanaka Kharn	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:32:00 - [11] OK im sorry i just dont get what just happened. Did CCP just step in and mess with the mkt directly or is this really just the result of the Ad and everyone panic dumped ?
The Illustrious Juden	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:45:00 - [12] Maybe they are just confident that Incarna will lower PLEX prices and made a coincidental decision to sell, which happened to coincide with the measured decision of others vOv
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:46:00 - [13] Originally by: Grossly Inferior Jeans Edited by: Grossly Inferior Jeans on 11/06/2011 22:37:07 We just saw a huge PLEX fluctuation a week or two ago. Did the prices stay at 445? Prices are only going down from today right? (sigh) I guess some people just aren't. that. smart. Its a market cycle. You sell when it's up, you buy when its down. At this time, its probably as low as its going to get, for instance, so you might safely buy for the next time when it is at 390+ With Incarna around the corner and Aurum, its a sure bet that itll increase again. When it gets too high, CCP make another terrorist banner, and the cycle repeats. Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:49:00 - [14] Originally by: Tutskii Originally by: Claire Voyant Originally by: Tutskii Theyre trying to scare people into SELLING their Plex. Well, actually scare people into buying GTCs and selling PLEX. Pretty good plan too, because PLEX are probably about to take a dip so now is a good time to buy GTCs before the Incarna rush. I assure you though, CCP is not trying to scare any of us MD types into selling our PLEX. I assure you that more than a few MD types sold their PLEX. Some of them, before the price dropped too much. I think its safe to assume that they are very happy they did, what with the massive price drop and all. Wasn't the question what was CCP's intent in running the ad? Isn't it clear that their motive was to sell more GTC's while their isk value was still high? Causing players to dump existing stocks of PLEX and crash the price would seem to defeat the purpose. Anyway, players dumping PLEX were probably acting on their own initiative and didn't need any prompting from CCP.
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:52:00 - [15] I disagree Claire, I believe the intent was to get players to lower the price of Plex before Incarna. Why? Because Aurum is likely to make Plex shoot up, by building volatility into it, they make it less desirable to hoard it and may set up a price wall through entirely psychological means. They did the same when it was at 410. I don't think it has anything to do with GTC's. But, if you have information that supports that, do post it. I comment solely on what I can see, which is a massive drop in price immediately following the CCP statement. Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:54:00 - [16] Originally by: Tutskii At this time, its probably as low as its going to get, for instance, so you might safely buy for the next time when it is at 390+ You are entitled to your opinion, but look at the timing of previous lows relative to expansions.
The Illustrious Juden	Posted - 2011.06.11 23:59:00 - [17] There was also some commentary during the AT broadcast which I think contributed to it. I would say some of the people holding PLEX are/were a bit jumpy. The end result as it stands now is a price swing of just 10m for today in Jita.
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.12 00:00:00 - [18] Originally by: Claire Voyant Originally by: Tutskii At this time, its probably as low as its going to get, for instance, so you might safely buy for the next time when it is at 390+ You are entitled to your opinion, but look at the timing of previous lows relative to expansions. I'm sorry, I haven't been playing that long, I forgot the name of that expansion where they introduced more mainstream uses for Plex, a new currency tied to Plex, goods that can be bought only with Plex (unless someone resells for isk), etc. Please let me know the name of said expansion so that I may compare this with the historical precedent. All little me has to go on is the prices and how they have been impacted by the recent announcements, starting with the ccp blog on Aurum that launched plex to 420 million immediately after. Do excuse the ignorance of a new player. Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.06.12 00:10:00 - [19] Originally by: Tutskii Because Aurum is likely to make Plex shoot up, by building volatility into it, they make it less desirable to hoard it and may set up a price wall through entirely psychological means. I expect that they will throttle the release of aurum store items to throttle the demand for PLEX and keep the price from shooting too high. How high is too high is a debatable question, but my guess is they will err on the side of caution and we will see almost no detectable aurum bump in the PLEX price at least detectable in the middle of the usual expansion crash. The main issue effecting PLEX prices over the next month will be whether the influx of new and returning players for Incarna buying GTCs outweighs the increased demand for PLEX from aurum.
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.12 00:26:00 - [20] Originally by: Claire Voyant Originally by: Tutskii Because Aurum is likely to make Plex shoot up, by building volatility into it, they make it less desirable to hoard it and may set up a price wall through entirely psychological means. I expect that they will throttle the release of aurum store items to throttle the demand for PLEX and keep the price from shooting too high. How high is too high is a debatable question, but my guess is they will err on the side of caution and we will see almost no detectable aurum bump in the PLEX price at least detectable in the middle of the usual expansion crash. The main issue effecting PLEX prices over the next month will be whether the influx of new and returning players for Incarna buying GTCs outweighs the increased demand for PLEX from aurum. I believe you are completely wrong as far as Aurum not affecting Plex. A sometimes steady, sometimes sudden increase of price has markedly accelerated by the announcement of Aurum. The 420 million just recently, would suggest that much. I noticed you failed to provide the name of the expansion you are using for precedent, so I went ahead and looked up the price of Plex this time last year: Under 300 million on average. Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u

Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.06.12 00:27:00 - [21] Originally by: Tutskii All little me has to go on is the prices and how they have been impacted by the recent announcements, starting with the ccp blog on Aurum that launched plex to 420 million immediately after. Have you noticed that the price of PLEX has now dropped below the level before the aurum dev blog? Maybe you should have listened to the older players who warned you not to speculate on PLEX in response to that blog. The GTC supply glut starts before the expansion and the aurum demand can't start until after the expansion so the timing is all wrong. Aurum can only temper the PLEX crash, not prevent it.
Tutskii	Posted - 2011.06.12 00:32:00 - [22] Originally by: Claire Voyant Originally by: Tutskii All little me has to go on is the prices and how they have been impacted by the recent announcements, starting with the ccp blog on Aurum that launched plex to 420 million immediately after. Have you noticed that the price of PLEX has now dropped below the level before the aurum dev blog? Maybe you should have listened to the older players who warned you not to speculate on PLEX in response to that blog. The GTC supply glut starts before the expansion and the aurum demand can't start until after the expansion so the timing is all wrong. Aurum can only temper the PLEX crash, not prevent it. I noticed that it did so directly after the Eve Related promotion that will only display once (which has displayed more than once!). I have also noticed that its shooting back up from a low of 365 just an hour or so ago. As for listening to older players that warned not to speculate on PLEX? I have made over 2 billion playing with it. I think I did well compared to older players that didn't speculate on Plex in response to that blog. But what do I know. To be honest, if someone asked me for advice, I'd say the same thing. Buy, buy buy. Its not going anywhere but up. But hey, the precedent and historical data completely back up your argument. Oh, wait, they don't. Go make a new disaster, that's what I'm counting on. You're someone else's problem, now I only want you gone... http://www.eveonline.com/iNgameboard.asp?a=topic&threadID=1516147mcvs![/u
Claire Voyant	Posted - 2011.06.12 00:33:00 - [23] Originally by: Tutskii I noticed you failed to provide the name of the expansion you are using for precedent, so I went ahead and looked up the price of Plex this time last year: Under 300 million on average. Now you are cooking.
Aroh X	Posted - 2011.06.12 03:57:00 - [24] The plex price in Jita has been hovering around 380-390 for the last week, so while it has dropped a little today, it's not by a massive amount, the 410+ prices we saw over a week ago didn't last very long... it'll probably hover around this price for the next week and a day or two out from Incarna will probably start to climb again. It'll be interesting to see what some of the stuff you can buy with AUR will resell for in ISK, that could have a bearing on the post incarna price of plex too.
Vaerah Vahrokha Minmatar Vahrokh Consulting	Posted - 2011.06.12 05:45:00 - [25] Nothing really special going on. Some days ago the price went hyperbolical (a sign of uptrend liquidity diminishing a lot), the guys at CCP saw it and punctured the bubble while it was weak, before some too much enterprising player would try give the uptrend a new push up. They wanted to avoid a Technetium-alike laddering. Auditing \| Research \| 3rd Party \| Collateral Holding \| EvE RL Charity
Commander Godsmack	Posted - 2011.06.12 12:01:00 - [26] the Pr0 Tip of Plex: Nothing is going to happen ----- This little pony show going on right now will only go down to cement Plex trends; then after this there shouldn't be anymore speculation that plex will ever go above 420
Atima Minmatar House of Marbles	Posted - 2011.06.12 13:40:00 - [27] Originally by: Vaerah Vahrokha Nothing really special going on. Some days ago the price went hyperbolical (a sign of uptrend liquidity diminishing a lot), the guys at CCP saw it and punctured the bubble while it was weak, before some too much enterprising player would try give the uptrend a new push up. They wanted to avoid a Technetium-alike laddering. Big words like hyperbolical and CCP intervention sounds really special to me.
Adunh Slavy	Posted - 2011.06.12 14:34:00 - [28] Originally by: Tutskii Theyre trying to scare people into SELLING their Plex. They did the same last week when the price was around 410. It doesn't only display once :) I doubt they're trying to scare people into selling existing plex, so much as encourage the purchase of new PLEX to be sold. Reposted from GD ... I doubt this banner was an attempt at moral suasion with the goal of calming PLEX markets, it was an advertisement. The result seems to be the ISK price went down. Was the price move due to people selling ones they had sitting in a hangar due to fear? Was it new PLEX bought and then sold on the market as some attempted to get in when the ISK price was high? Could it be wise traders knew this was an advertisement and decided they better move their stock before a new supply hits the market? CCP is a corporation who's motive is ultimately profit. Why put up a banner with the hopes that it would lower the value of a product you sell? The banner was a "get em while they're hot" advertisement. The Real Space Initiative - V7
Elhazzared	Posted - 2011.06.12 15:05:00 - [29] Yeah CCP doesn't do anything to make the PLEX drop it's price. In fact CCP quite expertly manipulated the PLEX price to be as high as it was when compared to the 300 M that's been it's steady price months ago. It started lowering to 270 which is why they manipulated the market and now they don't let it go bellow 360 as far as I've seen.
Clair Bear Ursine Research and Production	Posted - 2011.06.12 18:49:00 - [30] Originally by: Elhazzared Yeah CCP doesn't do anything to make the PLEX drop it's price. In fact CCP quite expertly manipulated the PLEX price to be as high as it was when compared to the 300 M that's been it's steady price months ago. It started lowering to 270 which is why they manipulated the market and now they don't let it go bellow 360 as far as I've seen. That is just silly. The PLEX has value to the purchaser of GTC in that it buys in-game goods and services. If the price of GTC is high, fewer of them need to bought from CCP to reach in-game ISK goals. It is counter-productive to CCP as a company to do things which result in fewer GTC being bought. As a thought experiment, consider GTC being worth 1,337 trillion ISK. Only one GTC would ever need to be bought by anyone, ever. That would result in less income to CCP. On the other hand, if GTCs were about 10 million isk people would decide it's not worth their RL money and grind for ISK instead. That's not good for CCP either. A very complex model would be needed to estimate the optimal ISK price of GTC that results in maximum CCP revenue. Here's my take on it. Having seen Dr.E's market analysis in the past, I'm confident beyond the smallest shadow of a doubt he's incapable of coming up with an ideal ISK price that optimizes CCP's income. Definitely not within 60M ISK or so. Possibly not within 200M isk. And he's alleged eve economy expert on staff! In conclusion, application of Occam's Razor demands I point and laugh at you for thinking CCP is the entity manipulating PLEX price with such precision. And in summary, bigger blobs are the answer. Now what was the question?



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