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Gogela
Freeport Exploration Loosely Affiliated Pirates Alliance
1194
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Posted - 2012.10.03 23:44:00 -
[1] - Quote
So I'm getting into the market speculation game because so many capsuleers have made so much damn ISK doing it and I want in on it. Sadly, I'm very nub to this! I was wondering of anyone out there had market data on items before and after patch changes that they wouldn't mind linking so I can look it over and become less dumb. Thanks in advance for any replies!
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Maria Yumeno
Venomous Cloud Scorned Syndicate
3
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Posted - 2012.10.04 01:26:00 -
[2] - Quote
Gogela wrote:So I'm getting into the market speculation game because so many capsuleers have made so much damn ISK doing it and I want in on it. Sadly, I'm very nub to this! I was wondering of anyone out there had market data on items before and after patch changes that they wouldn't mind linking so I can look it over and become less dumb. Thanks in advance for any replies!
You have to wait for the Dev blogs and also trawl through forum posts with Dev comments if you want to speculate effectively. |
David Forge
Forge Enterprises
135
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Posted - 2012.10.04 01:56:00 -
[3] - Quote
I don't know your history, but unless you know what you're doing (from past market activity) I would stay well clear of speculation. There's no better way to make huge amounts of your ISK vanish. |
Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
9
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Posted - 2012.10.04 04:21:00 -
[4] - Quote
speculation is easy enough, you just have to get in early. Pay attention, keep your eyes open for opportunities 1 or 2 patches before they happen.
There was a lot revealed in the fan fest videos about what will become profitable. I know that one of my investments has increased in value by at least 500% and it isn't a well documented or known about feature and there aren't many people involved in it yet.
There are a couple of short term speculations worth getting into at the moment that a few people are hoping a couple of features get included in the winter expansion and then there is at least one very obvious long term speculation.
You just have to do your reading and be smart. If you get in early enough there is really no risk as you get in during normal market conditions hoping for an increase in price. If it doesn't, the normal market conditions still exist and you just get out without much loss. |
Gogela
Freeport Exploration Loosely Affiliated Pirates Alliance
1197
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Posted - 2012.10.04 06:16:00 -
[5] - Quote
Ok. I got a feeling about this.
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1922
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Posted - 2012.10.04 06:24:00 -
[6] - Quote
Gogela wrote:Ok. I got a feeling about this.
There's a general rule that applies to any market (both RL and in game): if / when you feel compelled about asking on the forum or if / when you read about a market opportunity on the media, it's way too late and your only destiny is to become liquidity provider for those who got in in time.
Another general rule that once again applies to both RL and EvE: if you ask for finance related advice, you risk a lot to be fed "information" that will make someone else richer. Guess who is going to provide the "someone else"'s money? Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
9
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Posted - 2012.10.04 08:34:00 -
[7] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Gogela wrote:Ok. I got a feeling about this. There's a general rule that applies to any market (both RL and in game): if / when you feel compelled about asking on the forum or if / when you read about a market opportunity on the media, it's way too late and your only destiny is to become liquidity provider for those who got in in time. Another general rule that once again applies to both RL and EvE: if you ask for finance related advice, you risk a lot to be fed "information" that will make someone else richer. Guess who is going to provide the "someone else"'s money?
I wouldn't go as far as to say the opportunity has passed, however it becomes a lot more risky and difficult to profit of, together with being much less profitable.
One sure fire way to make isk, although it isn't very speculative, is to wait for new rigs/ships/modules to be released. Log in straight after DT and start building, don't even bother to put research into the BPOs. If you are first to enter the market then you can set the prices. This situation doesn't last very long, so you have to be quick and it is a lot of effort. however, it is possible to make billions of isk within a few hours if you are willing to put in the work.
I am only sharing this as i no longer bother, it takes too much effort and there are better, more passive ways (even if they are a little slower) to make isk.
I made my first few billion as a few month old character with very low industry skills when the new sized rigs were introduced, i did it again later with a few other items, but only half heartedly because, as i mentioned earlier, it is rather a lot of effort. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1924
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Posted - 2012.10.04 16:30:00 -
[8] - Quote
@Gogela
I suggest you to read my RL analysis threads (old forums and new) and try at least the subset of methods using the in game graphs. If anything, you'll get a grasp about markets and how you can "speculate" even outside of patch notes.
I'll also tell you, there are at least 3 huge markets that are lining up for upward moves in the next week(s), you could easily make 200-300% of your investment in them if you catch them in time. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1924
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Posted - 2012.10.05 07:54:00 -
[9] - Quote
Correction: the crimewatch changes suggest a number of items will tank and another - of older technology - will rise. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Ravenclaw2kk
Blue Republic RvB - BLUE Republic
9
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Posted - 2012.10.05 14:30:00 -
[10] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote:Correction: the crimewatch changes suggest a number of items will tank and another - of older technology - will rise.
Look at officer tags :p |
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Demolishar
United Aggression
368
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Posted - 2012.10.05 16:21:00 -
[11] - Quote
Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: I'll also tell you, there are at least 3 huge markets that are lining up for upward moves in the next week(s), you could easily make 200-300% of your investment in them if you catch them in time.
PLEX in Jita, PLEX in Amarr, PLEX in Dodixie. What do I win?
Also, nice trolling Gogela. |
Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1926
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Posted - 2012.10.05 17:51:00 -
[12] - Quote
Demolishar wrote:Vaerah Vahrokha wrote: I'll also tell you, there are at least 3 huge markets that are lining up for upward moves in the next week(s), you could easily make 200-300% of your investment in them if you catch them in time.
PLEX in Jita, PLEX in Amarr, PLEX in Dodixie. What do I win?
Nothing, it's not that. Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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Dinsdale Pirannha
Pirannha Corp
328
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Posted - 2012.10.05 18:14:00 -
[13] - Quote
I have not examined the faction smartbomb market since the dev blog that wipes out drones, but I would suggest doing your investigation in that one.
Small drones will be utterly trashed by NPC frigs, so people will have to start fitting smartbombs with maximum range to their BS mission runners.
Also, any gun boat faction BS will soar in price, when all the Domi, Rattlesnake, Gila, and Ishtar ratters experience the full effect of the new AI.
Hell, even small and heavy drones will likely experience a short-lived jump in price as demand soars to replace lost drones, but that one will be very short-lived as players abandon drone boats as a PVE platform. |
Kara Books
Deal with IT.
216
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Posted - 2012.10.06 17:52:00 -
[14] - Quote
I tell you what to buy and why and you give me iskies, of course in most cases you must have the means and actual time to acquire the goods.
Im also a safe style trader, chances of losses with me are almost zip. |
Smodab Ongalot
Shadows Of The Federation Drunk 'n' Disorderly
119
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Posted - 2012.10.10 17:07:00 -
[15] - Quote
Look at logistics frigates. There is plenty to speculate there. And due to low cost of items, might be a good place to learn about speculation as you limit the amount of isk you loose.
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Marsan
Production N Destruction INC.
51
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Posted - 2012.10.10 17:44:00 -
[16] - Quote
Honestly it's a little late to get in on the winter changes. Also there are not clear winners like with other expansions. In the past you know that certain ships base mineral cost would increase, that PI would be a lot more expensive or minerals would increase in price. The main areas you can get in on now:
- Buy under valued frigates on the market which suck now, but are slated to be buffed a lot. - Buy frigate and cruiser BPOs that are slated to be the new hotness, and research the BPOs up for sale when demand for research BPOs is high. - Watch drake, tengu, and cane prices, and contracts for people getting rid of their "nerfed" ships. - Heavy Missiles are being nerfed so expect that HAMs, and guns will increase in price. - Items from the FW store are going to increase in price with the Faction Warfare changes. Some of these are the same items that come from other LP stores which come from missions which will be harder.
The issue is the base price of these many of these items are set by mineral prices whicth may kill your profit as minerals may move for other reasons. I haven't looked at the overall market for minerals so I can't comment on the wisdom of investing in anything other than BPOs. This is not an expansion that will make people a lot of isk from simple trades. In past releases you could just buy POS fuel, or minerals wait a month and get a nice profit. For example in one release I simply flew around buying ships that were priced at or below market rate then put them back on the market for +20% for 3 months, because I knew the drone poo nerf was coming in a month which increased mineral prices. (And yes nearly everthing sold.) Most of the isk this release will be made from people like you who aren't experienced to jump off the market roller coaster at the right time. |
Gogela
Freeport Exploration Loosely Affiliated Pirates Alliance
1257
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Posted - 2012.10.10 17:54:00 -
[17] - Quote
Marsan wrote:Honestly it's a little late to get in on the winter changes. Also there are not clear winners like with other expansions. In the past you know that certain ships base mineral cost would increase, that PI would be a lot more expensive or minerals would increase in price. The main areas you can get in on now:
- Buy under valued frigates on the market which suck now, but are slated to be buffed a lot. - Buy frigate and cruiser BPOs that are slated to be the new hotness, and research the BPOs up for sale when demand for research BPOs is high. - Watch drake, tengu, and cane prices, and contracts for people getting rid of their "nerfed" ships. - Heavy Missiles are being nerfed so expect that HAMs, and guns will increase in price. - Items from the FW store are going to increase in price with the Faction Warfare changes. Some of these are the same items that come from other LP stores which come from missions which will be harder.
The issue is the base price of these many of these items are set by mineral prices whicth may kill your profit as minerals may move for other reasons. I haven't looked at the overall market for minerals so I can't comment on the wisdom of investing in anything other than BPOs. This is not an expansion that will make people a lot of isk from simple trades. In past releases you could just buy POS fuel, or minerals wait a month and get a nice profit. For example in one release I simply flew around buying ships that were priced at or below market rate then put them back on the market for +20% for 3 months, because I knew the drone poo nerf was coming in a month which increased mineral prices. (And yes nearly everthing sold.) Most of the isk this release will be made from people like you who aren't experienced to jump off the market roller coaster at the right time. I think you are wrong... there are several changes that as of this moment are still going to be very profitable. There's one feature I'm counting on being in a soon-to-come devblog that I'm already in on. Also, some market segments take longer to react than others. Things having to do with industry changes, for example, can take a long time for the market to correct, and thus further down the production line there are profits to be made. There are items in this expansion that are rare and formerly worthless since the start of EvE, and after this expansion they will accrue great value. Could see things go up by orders of magnitude. ...plus DUST. More people in the game can mean market movements too...
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Vaerah Vahrokha
Vahrokh Consulting
1932
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Posted - 2012.10.10 23:38:00 -
[18] - Quote
Marsan wrote:Honestly it's a little late to get in on the winter changes. Also there are not clear winners like with other expansions. In the past you know that certain ships base mineral cost would increase, that PI would be a lot more expensive or minerals would increase in price. The main areas you can get in on now:
...
The issue is the base price of these many of these items are set by mineral prices whicth may kill your profit as minerals may move for other reasons.
Hear, hear!
A patch where instead of having profits fed to everyone bothering to read a devblog, they have to actually trade for a profit.
Auditing | Collateral holding and insurance | Consulting | PLEX for Good Charity
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