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Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 913	Posted - 2012.10.10 15:25:00 - [1] - Quote If PLEX prices are rising, lets keep it simple, it's one of a few things... #1 - Consuming PLEX for game time #2 - Consuming PLEX for extended amount of gametime (yearly sub basically) #2 - Stockpiling PLEX for market speculation #3 - Consuming PLEX for in game services If it's #2 and #3, then is this a sign that the players have a long time faith in the CCP and EVE franchise into the distant future? The idea is pretty simple, if you were looking at short term needs, then you would be doing just enough to maintain your account but not put your effort/ISK into long term subs. A price spike like this can be a sign of more forward looking investments. Where I am.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 15:41:00 - [2] - Quote I have a stable of more than 30 characters, 11 accounts subbed well into the future and hundreds of PLEX in my Jita hanger of which some are destined for use with in game services (character transfers), some are for my subs and a large portion are for market speculation. I think that puts me in all four of your brackets. I certainly do have faith in CCP and in the long term future of this game. I'm willing to invest my internet spaceship money in that future and I am betting (literally) on CCP not screwing with the PLEX sandbox. The problem is, I think the rising PLEX price has more to do with the people that are unwilling to invest their real world money in that future.
Blueprint Seller 21	Posted - 2012.10.10 15:47:00 - [3] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: If it's #2 and #3, then is this a sign that the players have a long time faith in the CCP and EVE franchise into the distant future? The idea is pretty simple, if you were looking at short term needs, then you would be doing just enough to maintain your account but not put your effort/ISK into long term subs. A price spike like this can be a sign of more forward looking investments. In order to show your faith in CCP and EVE you have to subscribe by recurring 6+ month regular repeating subscription. That is actually putting your resources in to EVE. Playing with your virtual money has no real relevance because if the game ceases to exist or you cease to play then your virtual money ceases to matter.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 913	Posted - 2012.10.10 15:49:00 - [4] - Quote Well, I'm not sure if it's a shortage of supply really. The PLEX market has a relatively shallow breaking point. Looking at market graphs, on a particular day 50% or even 100% more than the average can be traded, and that can immediately cause a price spike. Combined with the buy orders rising, there is clearly a demand for higher priced PLEX that isn't being counteracted quickly enough to stop the rising market. I think what many may neglect in the analysis is the return of students to school and that usually combines with higher demand as well. If these students want to pay for their next 6-8 months then we're looking at a price spike only amplified by certain ongoing PLEX services and usage options (Tournament) driving prices up. Even for the people who want to make their ISK on PLEX, there is an incentive to wait a bit to price your materials (the bulk of sell orders are in the 700m range at the moment, waiting for price rises) - so the ceiling will be reached. The tournament auction is coming this OCT 13th, so there might be another price spike left before there is a drop. So, I'm not sure there is a supply disruption issue as much as a supply withheld issue. Where I am.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 913	Posted - 2012.10.10 15:50:00 - [5] - Quote Blueprint Seller wrote: Bloodpetal wrote: If it's #2 and #3, then is this a sign that the players have a long time faith in the CCP and EVE franchise into the distant future? The idea is pretty simple, if you were looking at short term needs, then you would be doing just enough to maintain your account but not put your effort/ISK into long term subs. A price spike like this can be a sign of more forward looking investments. In order to show your faith in CCP and EVE you have to subscribe by recurring 6+ month regular repeating subscription. That is actually putting your resources in to EVE. Playing with your virtual money has no real relevance because if the game ceases to exist or you cease to play then your virtual money ceases to matter. And this can be represented by buying PLEX in bulk and stockpiling for usage/consuming into your account subscription. Unless you happen to be one of those people that believes that PLEX Is free and doesn't come from real money, at which point I can't help you. Where I am.
Blueprint Seller 21	Posted - 2012.10.10 15:58:00 - [6] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: Blueprint Seller wrote: Bloodpetal wrote: If it's #2 and #3, then is this a sign that the players have a long time faith in the CCP and EVE franchise into the distant future? The idea is pretty simple, if you were looking at short term needs, then you would be doing just enough to maintain your account but not put your effort/ISK into long term subs. A price spike like this can be a sign of more forward looking investments. In order to show your faith in CCP and EVE you have to subscribe by recurring 6+ month regular repeating subscription. That is actually putting your resources in to EVE. Playing with your virtual money has no real relevance because if the game ceases to exist or you cease to play then your virtual money ceases to matter. And this can be represented by buying PLEX in bulk and stockpiling for usage/consuming into your account subscription. Unless you happen to be one of those people that believes that PLEX Is free and doesn't come from real money, at which point I can't help you. No, that would be ********. PLEX cost more than a recurring subscription. PLEX do not generate interest sitting in your hangar. You would be a fool to buy PLEX for use on a future subscription unless you expected subscription prices to rise dramatically (which is unlikely because CCP would be mad to do that). Buying PLEX to sell on to other players is the only sensible use (and the sense in even that is often questionable). You are however correct that buying PLEX for real money is also a show of your faith in CCP and I should really have included that in my previous post.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:05:00 - [7] - Quote Blueprint Seller wrote: subscribe by recurring 6+ month regular repeating subscription I previously did this. It was one of the economies I had to make when I went into semi-retirement (in real life) as I was obviously wealthy enough in game for EVE subs to be entirely optional. Not being quite as wealthy in real life, I chose to opt out of them from now on. To be fair, I think I've shown more support for CCP than most players and I've done more to publicise their game than most too. I doubt CCP begrudge me playing "for free" until they switch the servers off.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 913	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:09:00 - [8] - Quote Blueprint Seller wrote: PLEX cost more than a recurring subscription. PLEX do not generate interest sitting in your hangar. You would be a fool to buy PLEX for use on a future subscription unless you expected subscription prices to rise dramatically (which is unlikely because CCP would be mad to do that). Buying PLEX to sell on to other players is the only sensible use (and the sense in even that is often questionable). You are however correct that buying PLEX for real money is also a show of your faith in CCP and I should really have included that in my previous post. PLEX doesn't generate interest? Well, if you had 100 PLEX sitting in your hangar 2 months ago, you'd have made 200m per PLEX or about 20B ISK by now. In concept, PLEX will rise as inflation rises because it's a baseline representation of how much ISK is flowing or willing to flow to maintain your "membership". So, PLEX can make you money if prices go up, and to some degree will follow inflation rates as more money becomes available prices will go up for all goods, and PLEX will always have a minimum value for EVE Players as long as EVE is being played. Hence why I'm wondering if the rise in PLEX is because of longer term investments than shorter term ones. Where I am.
Blueprint Seller 21	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:18:00 - [9] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: PLEX doesn't generate interest? Well, if you had 100 PLEX sitting in your hangar 2 months ago, you'd have made 200m per PLEX or about 20B ISK by now. Or you could have purchased them now, rather than 2 months ago. The PLEX price is the same, the isk value is the same, but you've had your real world money for 2 months longer (where it does generate interest). A change in exchange rate isn't quite the same as earning interest. Bloodpetal wrote: So, PLEX can make you money if prices go up, and to some degree will follow inflation rates as more money becomes available prices will go up for all goods, and PLEX will always have a minimum value for EVE Players as long as EVE is being played. Hence why I'm wondering if the rise in PLEX is because of longer term investments than shorter term ones. I am certain that many players use PLEX as a long term investment. I do exactly that myself. However, I think the current PLEX market better serves the short term investor.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:21:00 - [10] - Quote Blueprint Seller wrote: I think the current PLEX market better serves the short term investor. It serves the long term investor if they are exiting their position, but I get your point.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:26:00 - [11] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: Well, I'm not sure if it's a shortage of supply really. ...many words... So, I'm not sure there is a supply disruption issue as much as a supply withheld issue. Either way, there is a shortage of supply. The cause, while relevant in a broader sense, doesn't change the effect.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 913	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:27:00 - [12] - Quote Blueprint Seller wrote: Bloodpetal wrote: PLEX doesn't generate interest? Well, if you had 100 PLEX sitting in your hangar 2 months ago, you'd have made 200m per PLEX or about 20B ISK by now. Or you could have purchased them now, rather than 2 months ago. The PLEX price is the same, the isk value is the same, but you've had your real world money for 2 months longer (where it does generate interest). A change in exchange rate isn't quite the same as earning interest. Some people could have bought 100 PLEX with in game money, which doesn't generate interest outside of game anyways and justified it as a long term investment. To do some quick math to work on paralleling In Game Profit Generation VS Real Life Interest Rates you're trying to draw... Hypothetical 2 Months Ago 100 PLEX = $1,700 = 45B Plex Today 100 PLEX = $1,700 = 66B Plex Delta is 21B ISK = $540 in equivalent ISK "profit". (Yes, this accounts for the PLEX fluctuation as well) So you'd have made about 30% on your investment, which if you wanted to say "I was going to put that into EVE anyways", is $540 in PLEX you don't have to buy to use in EVE gameplay. Which is probably better than most investments in real life. So, I don't think that a real life interest rate on your money has anything to do with the discussion. This is about investing into CCP's game as a client, as an expense, not as something you expect an ROI on such as a stock (above and beyond what you get in game from doing so, that is). Where I am.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 16:54:00 - [13] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: Blueprint Seller wrote: Bloodpetal wrote: PLEX doesn't generate interest? Well, if you had 100 PLEX sitting in your hangar 2 months ago, you'd have made 200m per PLEX or about 20B ISK by now. Or you could have purchased them now, rather than 2 months ago. The PLEX price is the same, the isk value is the same, but you've had your real world money for 2 months longer (where it does generate interest). A change in exchange rate isn't quite the same as earning interest. Some people could have bought 100 PLEX with in game money, which doesn't generate interest outside of game anyways and justified it as a long term investment. To do some quick math to work on paralleling In Game Profit Generation VS Real Life Interest Rates you're trying to draw... Hypothetical 2 Months Ago 100 PLEX = $1,700 = 45B Plex Today 100 PLEX = $1,700 = 66B Plex Delta is 21B ISK = $540 in equivalent ISK "profit". (Yes, this accounts for the PLEX fluctuation as well) So you'd have made about 30% on your investment, which if you wanted to say "I was going to put that into EVE anyways", is $540 in PLEX you don't have to buy to use in EVE gameplay. Which is probably better than most investments in real life. So, I don't think that a real life interest rate on your money has anything to do with the discussion. This is about investing into CCP's game as a client, as an expense, not as something you expect an ROI on such as a stock (above and beyond what you get in game from doing so, that is). I think you are missing BS's point. He is talking purely from a real-life finance point of view. His philosophy would be to gain the greatest benefit from limited real life funds. Therefore buying PLEX early is counterproductive given it's fixed price and the oppertunity costs involved with an advanced purchase that yields no benefit. Trading PLEX in-game is an entirely seperate issue and one that, as BS pointed out, has comparitively little value in supporting the real world entity that is CCP.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 913	Posted - 2012.10.10 17:00:00 - [14] - Quote Bad Bobby wrote: I think you are missing BS's point. He is talking purely from a real-life finance point of view. His philosophy would be to gain the greatest benefit from limited real life funds. Therefore buying PLEX early is counterproductive given it's fixed price and the oppertunity costs involved with an advanced purchase that yields no benefit. Trading PLEX in-game is an entirely seperate issue and one that, as BS pointed out, has comparitively little value in supporting the real world entity that is CCP. Well, I'm not discussing how we are helping CCP financially, I'm discussing how the perception of the players is trending towards longer term investments via PLEX given in game ISK (I never mentioned real money in my initial post). Hence, why I say the relevance of the real life interest rate isn't relevant to my current discussion. The only thing I can say is that the rise in in game PLEX value does by extension help CCP sales because more people are willing to purchase PLEX when their value is higher, so there is a tangential affect (even if not massively significant to cause a price drop). Allegorically I know people who are buying PLEX right now because they are so valuable in game. So, there is going to be an affect on PLEX sales. Whether that is counteracting a drop in PLEX sales from certain clients, and being replaced by higher sales from wealthier clients who are willing to convert at the current rate, is impossible to know from our vantage. Again, I'm not discussing how we are financially helping CCP, as much as a psychological trend if players see CCP as a more healthy long term commitment for their _ISK_ investments because if people believed PLEX was going to go down in price, market speculation would be low (And we know there's a lot of speculation going on atm). Where I am.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 17:24:00 - [15] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: The only thing I can say is that the rise in in game PLEX value does by extension help CCP sales because more people are willing to purchase PLEX when their value is higher I'll refer the honourable gentleman to a previous statement: Bad Bobby wrote: If a person is looking to buy 1b isk using PLEX, then which of the following is better for CCP? A) That person buying 3 PLEX at -ú16.99 each and selling them for 333m each to other players. B) That person buying 2 PLEX at -ú16.99 each and selling them for 500m each to other players.
Bad Bobby Bring Me Sunshine 135	Posted - 2012.10.10 17:28:00 - [16] - Quote It is however, as you say, impossible to tell from our position if CCP are selling more or less PLEX now as opposed to when the prices were lower.
Reticle Sight Picture 47	Posted - 2012.10.10 22:06:00 - [17] - Quote Bad Bobby wrote: The problem is, I think the rising PLEX price has more to do with the people that are unwilling to invest their real world money in that future. This is what I was thinking. Makes me wonder whether Dr. E will step in with his pile of confiscated PLEX. The only incentive for them to do so would be if the number of accounts allowed to go inactive exceeds those resubbed with real money by some significant amount. Perhaps this is the reason for allowing the massive FW ISK faucet to continue this long: more wealth means more PLEX burned up. Buddy accounts also make it rather easy to float free characters for almost two months. With a huge stack of ISK made FW farming on those free alts, how many of those accounts were kept active because, hey, I've got the isk for plex? Sounds a little tin foily, but anything that burns PLEX is good for their bottom line.
Robischek Almost Epic Zombie Ninja Space Bears 1	Posted - 2012.10.12 06:37:00 - [18] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: Delta is 21B ISK = $540 in equivalent ISK "profit". (Yes, this accounts for the PLEX fluctuation as well) So you'd have made about 30% on your investment, which if you wanted to say "I was going to put that into EVE anyways", is $540 in PLEX you don't have to buy to use in EVE gameplay. Which is probably better than most investments in real life. zillionB ISK < $1. All of your shiny ISK profits will get assraped by inflation. Any investment in real life > EVEvestment. Grow up boy.
Kara Books Deal with IT. 220	Posted - 2012.10.12 06:55:00 - [19] - Quote Robischek wrote: Bloodpetal wrote: Delta is 21B ISK = $540 in equivalent ISK "profit". (Yes, this accounts for the PLEX fluctuation as well) So you'd have made about 30% on your investment, which if you wanted to say "I was going to put that into EVE anyways", is $540 in PLEX you don't have to buy to use in EVE gameplay. Which is probably better than most investments in real life. zillionB ISK < $1. All of your shiny ISK profits will get assraped by inflation. Any investment in real life > EVEvestment. Grow up boy. Rename header of topic 1600 times, why?
Vaerah Vahrokha Vahrokh Consulting 1935	Posted - 2012.10.12 10:40:00 - [20] - Quote Robischek wrote: Any investment in real life > EVEvestment. Grow up boy. Few if any RL investments created a donation for humanitarian emergencies. PLEX did. Auditing \| Collateral holding and insurance \| Consulting \| PLEX for Good Charity Twitter channel
Tarik ThunderStorm Deep Core Mining Inc. Caldari State 3	Posted - 2012.10.12 12:53:00 - [21] - Quote As long as people are playing eve each month, no matter if you are paying monthly, plex with rl cash to sub, or buying plex with isk either way its all good for CCP. Cause someone is paying for that plex to be in the game...
Mara Rinn Native Freshfood Minmatar Republic 1920	Posted - 2012.10.12 23:51:00 - [22] - Quote Robischek wrote: zillionB ISK < $1. All of your shiny ISK profits will get assraped by inflation. Any investment in real life > EVEvestment. Grow up boy. Any time used to achieve things in real life > time spent playing computer games. If you're playing computer games anyway, instead of helping remote African communities establish clean drinking water supplies and fighting malaria or AIDS, you may as well invest your imaginary money in the great PLEX churner and double it every week. Day 0 advice for new players: Day 0 Advice for New Players
Hrothgar Nilsson Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance 140	Posted - 2012.10.13 23:03:00 - [23] - Quote Bloodpetal wrote: If PLEX prices are rising, lets keep it simple, it's one of a few things... #1 - Consuming PLEX for game time #2 - Consuming PLEX for extended amount of gametime (yearly sub basically) #3 - Stockpiling PLEX for market speculation #4 - Consuming PLEX for in game services #5 - Stockpiling PLEX as a hedge against ISK inflation. A RL would http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8
Ireland VonVicious Vicious Trading Company Alliance of Abandoned Cybernetic Rejects 67	Posted - 2012.10.14 01:28:00 - [24] - Quote I think this idea about it supporting ccp or not is kind of silly. Look at it more from thier perspective: Hight Prices: People will buy plex more often with real life money. Right? Nope. As those needing isk now buy less plex for the same items. Those running on accounts that use ingame money instead of real life money to subscribe start falling off as some won't be able to keep up with the rising cost to do it every month. They either start paying or they go away. If they go away it creates less demand on the plex and ccp has ran off someone who is not willing to pay for the game. This is what drives the prices back down. It has to tip past the breaking point of those falling off v.s. incomming supply. Also less join in on this action when prices are high. Low Prices: People will buy less plex with real life money. Right? Nope. This will vary as those who buy plex with real life money might need more plex to get the isk they needed. This can make prices continue to fall. The other side of low prices is more people start using plex to subscribe instead of using real money. This will continue to happen until the breaking point of where people using subscribe way out number the supply and seen value in plex v.s. real money. CCP makes roughly the same isk either way. They won't mess with this too much unless they absolutely have to. For those of you trying to predict the future: The answer is simple: Follow the over all global markets. As money becomes easier to get due to more poeple working and less unemployment isk prices will rise. When less people are unemployeed many will stop playing ever 24/7 and will start paying with real cash instead of isk. Although some have been long term and have plex that will last for damn near ever. Another thing to think about: Plex prices going up are a great sign for the planet as a whole. If the price of plex in real life goes up along with in game plex prices: it is not due to global growth. Due to pure inflation not economic growth. The Global Markets determine the plex economy in game. Eve's plex market might just be the best real life indicators of global growth.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 952	Posted - 2012.10.15 14:35:00 - [25] - Quote Ireland VonVicious wrote: I think this idea about it supporting ccp or not is kind of silly. . Why's it silly. If people are investing in the one commodity that has been described as "gold" of EVE, and that "Gold" is provided by CCP, then they're investing their ISK faith in something. I'm putting out the question not to make a statement, but to get feedback. Calling that question "Silly" is really unproductive and useless. Hrothgar wrote: #5 - Stockpiling PLEX as a hedge against ISK inflation. A RL example would be stockpiling gold to hedge against a fall in currency. As this guy pointed out, and as I insinuated with stockpiling PLEX in general with Market Speculation - if you're buying PLEX to make more ISK, then you think either that more players will be joining EVE Online and that means there could be a net rise in ISK in the future, and players will spend more on gametime with ISK due to inflation. Alternately, you could think that it doesn't have faith in CCP, because people are buying less PLEX and thus having less interest in playing the game. There isnt' a direct way to know this than if you look at the market graphs, there's a few distinct "spikes" in purchases which coincides with market value. Where I am.
De Guillaume Grim Determination Nulli Secunda 284	Posted - 2012.10.15 18:50:00 - [26] - Quote speaking personally. I can't wait till prices go up by another 200 or more. Has you ever went so far as chose to go even use want to look more like do?
Val'Dore PlanetCorp InterStellar 31	Posted - 2012.10.15 21:40:00 - [27] - Quote I don't think interest means what you all think it means. A far better way to compare PLEX is to Gold. PLEX has a locked in worth, same as gold, the only thing that changes is how much fiat currency people are willing to part with for it.
Bloodpetal Mimidae Risk Solutions 952	Posted - 2012.10.15 21:47:00 - [28] - Quote Val'Dore wrote: I don't think interest means what you all think it means. A far better way to compare PLEX is to Gold. PLEX has a locked in worth, same as gold, the only thing that changes is how much fiat currency people are willing to part with for it. I hope that's directed at others because I'm not the one that's been using the idea of "interest" as anything other than drawing parallels to other people using the word interest. Where I am.
Val'Dore PlanetCorp InterStellar 32	Posted - 2012.10.15 21:55:00 - [29] - Quote I only got to the first page before my education typed that post. Interest has nothing to do with the topic, since PLEX is not debt form currency.
Hrothgar Nilsson Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance 146	Posted - 2012.10.20 10:01:00 - [30] - Quote Val'Dore wrote: I don't think interest means what you all think it means. A far better way to compare PLEX is to Gold. PLEX has a locked in worth, same as gold, the only thing that changes is how much fiat currency people are willing to part with for it. Gold doesn't have a "locked in worth". It's a commodity, like iron ore, oil, or frozen orange juice concentrate. Nothing in this world has a "locked in worth". Gold is subject to the same laws of supply and demand as any other commodity. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8

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