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Cristobal
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Posted - 2005.07.19 18:33:00 -
[1]
Edited by: Cristobal on 19/07/2005 18:35:00
Please note that the prices indicated are taken from the Yulai Solarsystem in the Genesis Region. They are within 1 jump of that system and are not to be used as regional pricing, but rather as indicators of the market trends.
There has been much speculation about inflation as of late, and how it is affecting our economy. Rumors abound about how it is running rampant through out all segments of the market. In fact, based upon a review of the foundation materials in the Yulai system we are not in the midst of a rampant inflation cycle but in reality a gradual leveling and decline in those products. With the exception of Minerals, this is the only segment in the foundation materials that Market Watch monitors all of the other materials show a decline in sellerÆs prices. This really makes one wonder how the extremely high prices that individuals pay for Tech II components are just an indication of producers taking advantage of the limited blueprint availability, or if it is the result of individuals willing to pay those prices because they just have to have it now, regardless of the price, or a combination of both.
The rise in Minerals in many ways was expected due to the Cold War happenings. With the increase of avenues into the lower security areas of the Galaxy also comes the reverse of what was expected; the migration from the Empire areas to the lower security areas. There has been a great deal of activity from Pirate groups in Empire systems that until the Cold War were not heavily traveled by those groups, but since they can now come and go with greater ease one sees dramatic increases in the patrols of Empire mining areas. It is much easier to ply their hostilities on industrial operations than to deal with the better organized and skilled pilots of Alliance forces one finds in lower security systems. The Alliance forces usually make quick work of encroachments by roving bands of Pirates giving no quarter and expecting none. Industrial operations now are faced with increased risk in their own back yards and then couple that with the time to transport refined minerals to the market the rise is expected. However, it is predicted that eventually we will begin to see a leveling and gradual decline in their selling prices once they figure out how to work together to counter the Pirate hostilities.
Minerals - Overall UP 30%.
Leaders:
- Morphite UP 40%
- Zydrine DN 1%
Ice Products - Overall DN 11%.
Leaders:
- Oxygen Isotopes UP 13%
- Heavy Water DN 29%
Raw Materials - Overall DN 6%
Leaders:
- Atmospheric Gases UP 124%
- Titanium DN 59%
Processed Materials - Overall DN 13%
Leaders:
- Carbon Polymers UP 163%
- Vanadium Hafnite DN 74%
Advanced Materials - Overall DN 21%
Leaders:
- Fullerides UP 20%.
- Tungsten Carbide DN 94%
-- C r i s t o b a l --
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Saerid
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Posted - 2005.07.20 01:41:00 -
[2]
Excellent stuff. One additional bit of information that would be useful is rough sales volume over the observed time period. It's critical for deciding on if the price ranges quoted are relevant, especially for reactions. Though the volume issue applies more for the hub markets than Yulai. A relevant market would be one that trades,say, 3-4 complex reactions worth of materials a week or more (for example)
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Cristobal
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Posted - 2005.07.20 02:25:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Cristobal on 20/07/2005 02:26:37
 Originally by: Saerid
One additional bit of information that would be useful is rough sales volume over the observed time period. It's critical for deciding on if the price ranges quoted are relevant, especially for reactions. Though the volume issue applies more for the hub markets than Yulai. A relevant market would be one that trades,say, 3-4 complex reactions worth of materials a week or more (for example)
Saerid thank your comments. Up until now I have been gathering both the sellerÆs and buyerÆs listings. I am finding that the sellerÆs side of the equation presents a much better picture of market activity than the buyerÆs side which appears to cater to the sell it quick thinking of many market visitors. With that in mind I have considered dropping the buyerÆs data collection and concentrating on the sellerÆs listings exclusively. If I go that route than I will begin gathering the quantity of each sellerÆs order and post that information, and in that manner we will be able to consider the relevancy of the orders.
I have asked in the other Market Watch postings for a reasonable jump radius and quantity level but so far I have not receive any responses. That would be of considerable help in forming the postings. Currently I am using a 1 jump radius and the quantity levels are just what looks to me like a acceptable number. Any help there would be appreciated.
-- C r i s t o b a l --
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La Sannel
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Posted - 2005.07.20 02:30:00 -
[4]
GOOD JOB~~
the interesting thing is
in overall, every group related to POS is dropping
DN6% -DN21%
La Sannel
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Saerid
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Posted - 2005.07.20 16:28:00 -
[5]
Originally by: La Sannel
the interesting thing is
in overall, every group related to POS is dropping
DN6% -DN21%
La Sannel
As expected. T2 component demand probably went down due to the highway change, complex reaction output for any given amount of simple reactions and raw materials went up. Less demand - More supply --> Prices will be going down until enough producers go out of business or demand recovers.
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Lao Tzu
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Posted - 2005.07.20 20:16:00 -
[6]
Yes, the output from reactions was severly changed with the patch, so now prices for said reactions is also dropping.
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Alain Josviar
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Posted - 2005.07.20 21:23:00 -
[7]
The simple fact of T2 and POS is that there aren't enough T2 manufacturers to support the regional market hubs. The largest cause is the T2 bpo lottery that throttles the release of BPOs thus throttling the POS business. Yet again the got struck by lightening T2 BPO winners reap the rewards while the grunt POS operators get screwed.
CCP needs to either seed 4x the BPOs or just do what's right and put them on the market and revamp research agents into an actual research agent instead of a state lottery commisioner.
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Barbicane
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Posted - 2005.07.21 08:12:00 -
[8]
It's a great job you are doing with the price comparisons, and very much appreciated!
However, for advanced materials the production yields have been increased with the Cold War patch. For the same amount of processed materials as before, you now get 20-50% (I don't know the exact range) more advanced materials than before. While the component demand is presumably relatively level, this change would naturally cause a drop in advanced material prices.
To get more accurate predictions, I would recommend that you use a later comparison date for your price trends.
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Svetlana Scarlet
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Posted - 2005.07.21 19:41:00 -
[9]
It seems to me that making judgements about the market just based on Yulai at this point is a bit of a flawed methodology -- Yulai's prices were far out of whack with the rest of the gate web prior to the reorganization of the gates.
My guess is that the price changes you are seeing are more than likely just Yulai getting adjusted because of the restructuring of the gate web rather than an indicator of global trends (I know prices for ships, at least, were far higher in Yulai than they were even a few jumps away before the gate change -- by 200-300% in some cases). It might be a better idea to sample in a few regional markets, such as Domain or Tash Murkon, the Forge or Lonetrek, Essence or Sinq Laison, and Metropolis or Kador, and then examine those to determine a more likely trend. When you only sample the Yulai or Genesis prices, you're looking at a single datapoint that isn't even that central anymore (though it may still be valid for prices in Amarr and Caldari space).
Still, it is interesting to see these statistics, especially from the point of view of a minerals speculator. Do you have a more complete rundown of the price changes in minerals? I've found a drop in prices for nocxium lately, and noticed that the price of tritanium has not gone up nearly as much as I expected it to in the region of space I'm currently working in.
--
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