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Hulk Invention Nerfed ???

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Mistah Ewedynao Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 397	Posted - 2013.04.01 14:57:00 - [1] - Quote Have made four (4) 10 copy max run invention tries since last expansion. I have Gallente Starship, Mech Engineering and Hacking at level 5 I use +20% decryptors..Test reports I am getting like 1 out of 10 BPC's where I was getting at least 3 out of 10 prior to expansion. Yeah, yeah...random But it's not. Am seeing pretty much poorer results across the board but especially Hulks. Stealth Invention nerf??? Nerf Goons Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Haulie Berry 308	Posted - 2013.04.01 15:14:00 - [2] - Quote Reported for trolling.
Krixtal Icefluxor INLAND EMPIRE Galactic 3950	Posted - 2013.04.01 15:27:00 - [3] - Quote It's random. It just happens sometimes. There is much to be said in favour of modern journalism. By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, it keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community.-á-á-á-á - Oscar Wilde
Mistah Ewedynao Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 397	Posted - 2013.04.01 21:30:00 - [4] - Quote Haulie Berry wrote: Reported for trolling. Wow.....who's trollin? A completely honest observation, wiith the facts of how it happened. 3 month dry spell is NOT random. Nerf Goons Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Derath Ellecon Washburne Holdings Situation: Normal 1249	Posted - 2013.04.01 21:45:00 - [5] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Haulie Berry wrote: Reported for trolling. Wow.....who's trollin? A completely honest observation, wiith the facts of how it happened. 3 month dry spell is NOT random. With facts that show your data pool is way too small to be able to make any useful conclusion.
Dave Stark 2287	Posted - 2013.04.01 21:50:00 - [6] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: 3 month dry spell is NOT random. yes it is. you waste time reading this?
Haulie Berry 314	Posted - 2013.04.02 02:10:00 - [7] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Haulie Berry wrote: Reported for trolling. Wow.....who's trollin? A completely honest observation, wiith the facts of how it happened. 3 month dry spell is NOT random. A completely honest observation about some statistically insignificant, anecdotal data. Also, why are you using max run BPCs? IIRC they fixed the issue that caused you to lose a run when using a decryptor with a non-max-run BPC, and the natural max of a T2 ship BPC is 1, so you may as well just use a 1 run copy.
Steve Ronuken Fuzzwork Enterprises 1254	Posted - 2013.04.02 09:00:00 - [8] - Quote Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics. It's not exactly intuitive. After all, each run you do has no effect on whether the next one will succeed or not. You only have, at most, a 30.24% chance of success, per run. 4 successes out of 40 happens. Steve Ronuken for CSM 8 Handy tools and SDE conversions Twitter: @fuzzysteve on Twitter
Haulie Berry 315	Posted - 2013.04.02 16:14:00 - [9] - Quote Steve Ronuken wrote: Welcome to the wonderful world of statistics. It's not exactly intuitive. After all, each run you do has no effect on whether the next one will succeed or not. You only have, at most, a 30.24% chance of success, per run. 4 successes out of 40 happens. You should even see a straight 0/40 at roughly a 5.5 in 10 million probability. Understand, OP, that, on a micro scale (that is, your personal experience), probability might seem like a question of whether something does or does not happen. On a macro scale, though, it's a given that it WILL happen - the probability is the statistical frequency with which it happens. Someone's going to pull the short straw, occasionally it's going to be you.
Slumpert Hookers and Quafe 14	Posted - 2013.04.04 19:46:00 - [10] - Quote Some dude out there has been getting 80% sucess rate since the same patch and he has been "Quiet" about it because he didn't want CCP to nerf him.
Kara Books Deal with IT. 479	Posted - 2013.04.05 03:25:00 - [11] - Quote In reality, invention chances. is just a big ruse to get you to waste goods ingame. FACT Try to get that % chance as every one states, because you cant, because its a big lie. there's no one, ever, who has gotten 80% success FACT
Kara Books Deal with IT. 479	Posted - 2013.04.05 03:26:00 - [12] - Quote Slumpert wrote: Some dude out there has been getting 80% sucess rate since the same patch and he has been "Quiet" about it because he didn't want CCP to nerf him. He told me 101% and my friend 65%, Im still trying to convince my friend he is telling the truth
Haulie Berry 322	Posted - 2013.04.05 15:40:00 - [13] - Quote Kara Books wrote: In reality, invention chances. is just a big ruse to get you to waste goods ingame. FACT Try to get that % chance as every one states, because you cant, because its a big lie. there's no one, ever, who has gotten 80% success FACT Yeah... ** all that math and fancy booklearnin'. Just type "FACT" after everything in all caps and your ignorant bull ** shall magically become true!
Mistah Ewedynao Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 397	Posted - 2013.04.06 15:29:00 - [14] - Quote Well I just got 1 out of 10, on Covetor BPC's, 1 run BPC's this time with +10% decryptors. Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention??? I mean continually since the expansion? That's is like 3 or 4 sucesses out of 50 tries, max relevant skills and all with 10% or 20% decryptors. WAY WORSE than I was getting pre-expansion. Nerf Goons Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Dave Stark 2454	Posted - 2013.04.06 15:47:00 - [15] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention??? no, but just because i flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads doesn't mean it's not a 50% chance. you waste time reading this?
Beckie DeLey Hyperfleet Industries xXPlease Pandemic Citizens Reloaded Alliance.Xx 439	Posted - 2013.04.06 16:08:00 - [16] - Quote Dave Stark wrote: Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention??? no, but just because i flip a coin 10 times and get 7 heads doesn't mean it's not a 50% chance. That coin needs to get nerfed. The risk/reward on it is completely out of whack. So... i started an industry blog at www.derbk.com/eve . Updated almost thrice a year! Also, i am prettier than Saskia. True story. But don't tell her, little princess is sensitive.
Haulie Berry 323	Posted - 2013.04.06 17:35:00 - [17] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Well I just got 1 out of 10, on Covetor BPC's, 1 run BPC's this time with +10% decryptors. Do any of you "random experts" actually do exhumer invention??? I mean continually since the expansion? That's is like 3 or 4 sucesses out of 50 tries, max relevant skills and all with 10% or 20% decryptors. WAY WORSE than I was getting pre-expansion. Wow, a whole batch of 10! Come talk to us when you average 1/10 over 10,000 attempts.
Mistah Ewedynao Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 397	Posted - 2013.04.06 20:32:00 - [18] - Quote Once again....I realize you random fans might just think a little differently than others. Has anyone else here been doing exhumer invention jobs pre and post expansion? I have been doing over 30 exhumer invention jobs a month for aprroximately 15 months. They suck now...and it ain't freakin random! You do realize each type of ship/module has a different sucess factor/chance right? That could be stealth nerfed with a decimal change probably. If you do not do exhumer invention YOU are the trolls not I. Here's one somebody can answer I hope. Do T2 BPO's exist for Hulks and Mackinaws ?? Nerf Goons Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Dave Stark 2460	Posted - 2013.04.06 20:34:00 - [19] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: and it ain't freakin random! due to your lack of evidence for this claim; it is random. you waste time reading this?
hellcane Never Back Down 3	Posted - 2013.04.07 00:11:00 - [20] - Quote While you are randomly getting 10% on a small sample, some guy could get 100%. The difference is the happy guy won't come and ***** on the forums, so all you see are the people that are upset because they are having bad luck. As someone said before, assuming a balanced coin, if you get 5 heads out of 5 flips, that doesn't mean you have a 100% chance to flip a head.
Haulie Berry 324	Posted - 2013.04.07 17:15:00 - [21] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Once again....I realize you random fans might just think a little differently than others. I... what? What is that even supposed to mean? It's a system that utilizes probability and a randomly generated value as mechanics. There are some pretty well established mathematics for dealing with probability. It's not a matter of being a "fan" of anything. We know the basic formula for invention chance, and we know the mathematics for calculating values based on probability. Using that information, we can determine that your run of bad luck is completely within expected norms and not, in isolation, indicative of any mechanical change. Quote: Has anyone else here been doing exhumer invention jobs pre and post expansion? No, it's just you. You're supplying the entire exhumer market, all by your lonesome. Quote: I have been doing over 30 exhumer invention jobs a month for aprroximately 15 months. They suck now...and it ain't freakin random! The extremely small numbers you are citing indicate that it is, in fact, random. And that, really, is something you need to understand: The numbers you are citing are so small as to be completely irrelevant. Do a few thousand jobs and see what you average then. Quote: You do realize each type of ship/module has a different sucess factor/chance right? That could be stealth nerfed with a decimal change probably. If you do not do exhumer invention YOU are the trolls not I. Gosh, really? This is brand new information, of which we were all completely unaware until just now. Fortunately a lauded master of invention has seen fit to grace us with his knowledge and expertise, or we may have remained wholly ignorant of this trivially obtained information for all time. All modules/rigs/ammo have the same base rate of 40%. Ship base success rates are delineated as follows: Frigate/Destroyer/Skiff (pretty sure JFs are in this group, too): 30% Cruiser/industrial/Mackinaw: 25% BC/BS/Hulk: 20% Quote: Here's one somebody can answer I hope. Do T2 BPO's exist for Hulks and Mackinaws ?? Yes, they exist. What, precisely, do you imagine they would have to do with your recent run of bad luck?
Haulie Berry 324	Posted - 2013.04.07 17:47:00 - [22] - Quote Oh, and just to really drive the point home: The expected invention cost of a hulk at current market prices, using Test Reports and perfect skills, and valuing the BPC at 0, is about 21 million isk per output run. This assumes a 30.24% probability. If it were dropped to 10% - as you more or less seem to be claiming - that cost skyrockets to about 64 million per output run. Unless the entire Hulk manufacturing population of Eve decided that they would generously continue to manufacture Hulks at a huge loss, we would obviously see that increase reflected in the price of hulks. Furthermore, in addition to making Hulk invention more expensive, this would also directly reduce supply by virtue of the fact that it would take more invention jobs to produce the same number of Hulks as before. Again, this is something we would see reflected in the price of Hulks. Over the last 3 months, the price of Hulks has gently declined from about 210 million to 190 million. Conclusion: You're very, very wrong.
Zhilia Mann Tide Way Out Productions 1134	Posted - 2013.04.07 18:49:00 - [23] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Once again....I realize you random fans might just think a little differently than others. Has anyone else here been doing exhumer invention jobs pre and post expansion? I have been doing over 30 exhumer invention jobs a month for aprroximately 15 months. They suck now...and it ain't freakin random! You do realize each type of ship/module has a different sucess factor/chance right? That could be stealth nerfed with a decimal change probably. If you do not do exhumer invention YOU are the trolls not I. You are very, very bad at math. I'd highly suggest you fix that at some point, but it's really up to you. My ratios have been normal. But they're about on par with yours on volume, which means my data alone means absolutely nothing, much like yours. But I'm showing normal. Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Here's one somebody can answer I hope. Do T2 BPO's exist for Hulks and Mackinaws ?? Yes. What of it?
Ave Kathrina My Ass Is On Fire 36	Posted - 2013.04.07 19:51:00 - [24] - Quote Op, I just completed a 20 slot inventin run for Hulks. I'll going to enjoy building the 12 successful prints..... So.... Lol your dice suck. I've done some really stupid **** in this game.
Mistah Ewedynao Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 398	Posted - 2013.04.09 03:12:00 - [25] - Quote Ave Kathrina wrote: Op, I just completed a 20 slot inventin run for Hulks. I'll going to enjoy building the 12 successful prints..... So.... Lol your dice suck. And the tooth fairy is real, right? Nerf Goons Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Haulie Berry 357	Posted - 2013.04.09 04:19:00 - [26] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Ave Kathrina wrote: Op, I just completed a 20 slot inventin run for Hulks. I'll going to enjoy building the 12 successful prints..... So.... Lol your dice suck. And the tooth fairy is real, right? Oh and go to Vegas, Monaco or wherever and gamble alot NOW, becuase you are a very lucky person. Curiously, if it really happenend, did you use decrytors? I haven't got anywhere near that success rate EVER, maybe once with drones, certainly not cruiser class or exhumers. 12 out of 20 Hulks....I call BS. 12/20 is well within possible values. A bit rare, but not exorbitantly so.
Krixtal Icefluxor INLAND EMPIRE Galactic 4083	Posted - 2013.04.09 13:52:00 - [27] - Quote One of my old corp members got 0 out of 30 Hulk Inventions once. It is indeed a random process. There is much to be said in favour of modern journalism. By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, it keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community.-á-á-á-á - Oscar Wilde
Mistah Ewedynao Center for Advanced Studies Gallente Federation 400	Posted - 2013.04.09 13:59:00 - [28] - Quote Krixtal Icefluxor wrote: One of my old corp members got 0 out of 30 Hulk Inventions once. It is indeed a random process. But did anybody ever get even 10 out of 20? I MAYBE got 6 or 7 out of 20 on my best ever run. I do realize that a year and a half is not that long in eve, but... It's been nerfed in my completely uneducated opinion. Just gonna collect Exhumer BPC's for awhile...and quit wasting +20% decryptors on them. Nerf Goons Nuke em from orbit....it's the only way to be sure.
Haulie Berry 363	Posted - 2013.04.09 14:34:00 - [29] - Quote Mistah Ewedynao wrote: Krixtal Icefluxor wrote: One of my old corp members got 0 out of 30 Hulk Inventions once. It is indeed a random process. But did anybody ever get even 10 out of 20? I MAYBE got 6 or 7 out of 20 on my best ever run. I do realize that a year and a half is not that long in eve, but... It's been nerfed in my completely uneducated opinion. Just gonna collect Exhumer BPC's for awhile...and quit wasting +20% decryptors on them. I think what's lost on you (well, one of the many, many things) is that the amount of invention jobs you're dealing with is really just incredibly ***** small. You're talking about doing 30 jobs a month over 15 months - about 450 jobs in total. An efficient operation that keeps its lines busy could exceed that in one** month.
Elena Thiesant Sun Micro Systems 264	Posted - 2013.04.09 14:41:00 - [30] - Quote I had 4/5 Ishtars succeed this morning, that's with a 29.36% success chance. Probably get 0/5 on my next 3 sets, but that's random for you. The important thing here is that the success chance is independent of previous runs. Just like flipping coins, each invention chance of success is unrelated to whether the previous invention attempt succeeded or failed. Random processes do indeed have runs like you're seeing, that's part of random behaviour. Perfect, exact adherence to the average at low sample sizes is not required and if you were to have exactly 3/10 successes every time with a 30% success chance, it would suggest that the process is not completely random. If you study statistics and random behaviour, you'll see that it's not necessarily intuitive. p.s. If you search back through the forum, you'll find 'invention nerfed' posts after just about every single patch. Same thing every time, low sample set and conclusions that the maths does not support.

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