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Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
715
   |
Posted - 2013.04.27 02:14:00 -
[1] - Quote
After half a decade of stockpiling that ****, your payday finally comes.
Gratz. |
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
6
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 03:58:00 -
[2] - Quote
Stockpiling Thulium has never been an easily thing. I have actively purchased many sell orders over about 4 years and only managed to stockpile 10 million units. Could have been more but I weren't going to pay high prices for a useless item. Almost every time you purchased 500k+ of the stuff the price increased too much (risk vs reward) because there where so few sellers in the market. Before every patch it was too aggressive to buy in any volume. 3k+/unit for a item that was worthless over so many patches wasn't exactly worth the risk of buying and keeping its price up and hence paying more on future purchases. Until this year it has generally always been under 1k a unit except at patch times.
btw I am not the person that got the 20 mil unit 6 months ago or the person that got 10 million units only a month ago. Congrats to whoever it was a month ago as I was making my mind up to buying out the sell orders when all of a sudden they were gone.
IMO anyone that has been collecting stock deserve a payoff. Plus it isn't over yet, Thulium will now take a long time for the price to go up and stay up so that it can be sold in any volume. It will probably take longer than the technetium price rise did and wont be anywhere as high. Hopefully the number of holders of Thulium are very few and the competition from them selling wont be to bad. Otherwise I will be selling in two years like I did with tech. One thing Thulium has going for it is that maybe people that collected it years ago probably wont be in too big a hurry to sell straight away. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
926
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 04:03:00 -
[3] - Quote
22m units in my hanger, acquired (very slowly) between 1600 and 1800. Feels good man.
The oversupply might not be as bad as you think, too. While it's true that by total moon count it was oversupplied by like a thousand percent, I doubt anywhere near all of those moons were actually mined. The stuff was so worthless that it even a small tower was only barely profitable for pure mining. The majority of the supply probably came from towers that were there for other reasons, with the Thulium mined as an incidental.
Or maybe that's wishful thinking. 
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Whereis Mebong
Invictus Australis
Scrap Iron Flotilla.
0
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 04:18:00 -
[4] - Quote
I done the buy a month ago, 5 million, it was my first speculative buy ever. Bought it at the 2.5-2.7k mark. Must of been some spooked people because some buys were over a million units. I done some math, and 4 million units was around 1 moon been mined for 1660 days, or 5 years. That should give you an idea of the amount of thulium being mined, dotlan says around 40 odd thulium moons, but u could prob double that easy for the acutual amount around.
What i dont know, was the actual usage per day, or what was being bought or stock piled. I also have no clue on what the actual usage will be, after the change. All i do know is i had 12b sitting around, and after following mynnna for sometime, thought i would throw it at something that would give minimal risk, (there was the shake announced quite some months ago that resulted in the price change and the buys), with the possibility of massive gains. Im just interested to see where all the r64's will go, will minmatar be the highest, as lets face, there t2 ships and modules are extensively used, or some other race.
All i gotta do now is stop going mad from thinking every 10 minutes should i hold or sell.
I can tell you playing this side of eve, is probably more exciting then 99% of the pvp ive done in eve. |
AnakieNine
Imperial Academy
Amarr Empire
6
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 04:51:00 -
[5] - Quote
Mebong, congrats and welcome to this side of eve. If that was your first buyout well done and I'm glad it will pay off. When you first pushed the price up I sold around a million units into sell orders thinking the 20million order was fake and trying to push the price up. Not sure if that was yours. It never moved... I ended up buying about 750k units back off the market when playing the gap a little bit and realizing the patch day speculation had started early on Thulium.
If I was you I would probably sell a little back to the market to regain some isk asuming you invested too heavy on your first item. It will be a month before any usage starts and depending on how the sellers react could be a while before you can sell any volume. It is always easier to sell into a panic market if you are happy with the price. With Odyssey there are so many market items that will change 30%+ price wise that you can make isk off. It is not always a good idea to put all your eggs in one basket.
btw Not a lot of moons have been mined for sale on the market. Most of the moons that have been mined tend to be extra moons held by corps and they mined them only because they where r64. Also Akita T did a study on moons and how much Thulium is out there a few years ago. |
Sabre Rolf
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
1
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 04:55:00 -
[6] - Quote
Whereis Mebong wrote: will minmatar be the highest, as lets face, there t2 ships and modules are extensively used, or some other race.
Gallente has always been the highest (cause Gallente + Ore), I dont see why that should change |
Dood Toon
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
9
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 05:17:00 -
[7] - Quote
Whereis Mebong wrote: Im just interested to see where all the r64's will go
==>
CCP wrote:back to the rarest mineral types (R64), spreading that value more evenly among those four rarest minerals
current Jita prices:
Promethium: ~22.000
Dysprosium: ~30.000
Neodymium: ~52.500
Thulium: ~14.000
go figure  |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
715
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 05:49:00 -
[8] - Quote
Dood Toon wrote:CCP wrote:back to the rarest mineral types (R64), spreading that value more evenly among those four rarest minerals current Jita prices: Promethium: ~22.000 Dysprosium: ~30.000 Neodymium: ~ 52.500Thulium: ~14.000 go figure
Congratulations on a spectacularly ill-considered post.
|
Dood Toon
Native Freshfood
Minmatar Republic
9
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 06:51:00 -
[9] - Quote
Varius Xeral wrote:
Congratulations on a spectacularly ill-considered post.
coming from the Spaceship-ego-grinding-goon who creates "gratz-threads" with alts just to give his main a reason to brag about.
but, thanks!
|
wallenbergaren
Garoun Investment Bank
Gallente Federation
73
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 10:17:00 -
[10] - Quote
"Current jita prices"
rofl |
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
931
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 13:03:00 -
[11] - Quote
Dood Toon wrote:Varius Xeral wrote:
Congratulations on a spectacularly ill-considered post.
coming from the Spaceship-ego-grinding-goon who creates "gratz-threads" with alts just to give his main a reason to brag about. but, thanks!
He's right though. "Current jita price", a day after the changes have been announced and over a month before they're actually added into the game, is a spectacularly dumb way of judging the success of the changes.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Felicity Love
STARKRAFT
Joint Venture Conglomerate
534
|
Posted - 2013.04.27 23:45:00 -
[12] - Quote
Accumulated a small pile over a couple of years --- after all my bitching about it on Forums, what else could I do ? 
Proud Beta Tester for "Bumping Uglies for Dummies" |
Rual Storge
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
8
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 14:24:00 -
[13] - Quote
What are the price expectations? What range could it end? |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
738
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 14:39:00 -
[14] - Quote
Personally I think the stockpiles are massive, and there's now already a mad dash to find and tower every thulium currently in existence and get the spice flowing. Coupled with the fact that they've committed (hopefully) to tweaking component inputs to avoid a bottleneck mineral, it could be within the realm of possibility that thulium is depressed for a long time relative to the other 3 r64s, perhaps for as long as the current moon system lasts.
My guess is you'll see a price of around 5k pu for a long time, followed by a long and slow climb to 15k pu or so. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
935
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 14:46:00 -
[15] - Quote
Varius Xeral wrote:Personally I think the stockpiles are massive, and there's now already a mad dash to find and tower every thulium currently in existence and get the spice flowing. Coupled with the fact that they've committed (hopefully) to tweaking component inputs to avoid a bottleneck mineral, it could be within the realm of possibility that thulium is depressed for a long time relative to the other 3 r64s, perhaps for as long as the current moon system lasts.
My guess is you'll see a price of around 5k pu for a long time, followed by a long and slow climb to 15k pu or so.
Bottlenecked minerals are not bad. In fact, if they want R64 minerals to be valuable, they have to be bottlenecked. And with the new system, they are. Or rather, they can be, if the new moons are distributed right.
The problem with Tech as a bottleneck was that it was also regional.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
738
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 14:56:00 -
[16] - Quote
mynnna wrote:Bottlenecked minerals are not bad. In fact, if they want R64 minerals to be valuable, they have to be bottlenecked. And with the new system, they are. Or rather, they can be, if the new moons are distributed right.
The problem with Tech as a bottleneck was that it was also regional.
Right, I was keeping it simple and referring to the historic single "bottleneck" (with runner-up partner) that draws the vast majority of the value of the t2 market into itself.
My impression is that they want the bottleneck to be spread across the r64s, keeping the values within a relative range through alchemy and even tweaking component inputs if necessary. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
936
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 16:17:00 -
[17] - Quote
Varius Xeral wrote:mynnna wrote:Bottlenecked minerals are not bad. In fact, if they want R64 minerals to be valuable, they have to be bottlenecked. And with the new system, they are. Or rather, they can be, if the new moons are distributed right.
The problem with Tech as a bottleneck was that it was also regional. Right, I was keeping it simple and referring to the historic single "bottleneck" (with runner-up partner) that draws the vast majority of the value of the t2 market into itself. My impression is that they want the bottleneck to be spread across the r64s, keeping the values within a relative range through alchemy and even tweaking component inputs if necessary.
This is correct, yes. Or I assume it is, anyway. And if my work is correct (I basically duplicated Akita T's old technetium work) then it's possible to bottleneck all four R64s equally. They just have to place the moons right.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
Rastlor
Dissident Aggressors
Mordus Angels
2
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 16:54:00 -
[18] - Quote
mynnna many congratulations on the CSM seat, do you mind me asking how are you going to continue your market domination now that you're a member of the CSM with privileged info etc.
I've enjoyed your articles / bits on here but are you able to continue once your NDA'd to the hilt?
Apologies to the OP for hijacking the thread - curiosity got the better of me. |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
740
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 17:02:00 -
[19] - Quote
Rastlor wrote:Apologies to the OP for hijacking the thread - curiosity got the better of me.
I was gonna say "f him anyway" until I realized it was me.
Go nuts. Started this thread more to laugh about people holding thulium for five years than any real discussion about how it will play out. |
Sabre Rolf
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
1
|
Posted - 2013.04.29 17:56:00 -
[20] - Quote
the demand of Gallentium should actaully be quite big, given that its acutally used for two races and the ore ships are quite CPU/processor heavy (e.g.1x invented hulk will require 12.000 units Gallentium).
There must be huge stockpiles, indeed. But im taking a wild guess that most of these stockpiles arent split through too many hangars, so I wouldnt expect too many market fighting.
climbing fuelblock prices and the coming Commadship/Hac balancing might do their part too.
needless to say that all that is very speculative and all im trying to say is that its quite possible that thulium could actually become one of the most expensive moon minerals.
...or not.
|
Sabre Rolf
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
15
|
Posted - 2013.05.09 06:43:00 -
[21] - Quote
wow, just sold my stash @ 20.000...whats going on? |
forestwho
Foonfleet Investment Banking
45
|
Posted - 2013.05.09 10:40:00 -
[22] - Quote
Sabre Rolf wrote:wow, just sold my stash @ 20.000...whats going on?
Someone bought 4-6 mil units and everyone is stockpiling result: current jita price 29k
(Or someone has dev info that predicts a much higher price & bought out the market to hop on a late train, which is more likely) |
Sabre Rolf
Republic University
Minmatar Republic
15
|
Posted - 2013.05.09 13:15:00 -
[23] - Quote
forestwho wrote:Sabre Rolf wrote:wow, just sold my stash @ 20.000...whats going on? Someone bought 4-6 mil units and everyone is stockpiling result: current jita price 29k
well if you sort by price, the lowest sell price is actually 24k but yea thats what is obvious to see. However the reason (if there is any other than pure manipulation) why they did that is what I-¦d like to know. my transaction log show at least 3 diff. ppl buying my sell orders. |
stagz
Invictus Australis
Scrap Iron Flotilla.
25
|
Posted - 2013.05.22 02:29:00 -
[24] - Quote
So im considering buying, even at its current 15-17k range.
Although i have some questions, why is it that thulium hasnt stayed at the 25k + range?
As it will soon be required for T2 production i would have assumed that this would be its value.
Or is the current low price purely a result of alot of speculation and caution holding prices down given that there is little knowledge about how much has been horded and can be dumped on the market post patch? |
Varius Xeral
Galactic Trade Syndicate
944
|
Posted - 2013.05.22 02:48:00 -
[25] - Quote
stagz wrote:Or is the current low price purely a result of alot of speculation and caution holding prices down given that there is little knowledge about how much has been horded and can be dumped on the market post patch?
Yes, people have been betting on Thulium for years. The stockpiles could be vast.
It'll go down before it goes up. If you're not an avid market player and plan to hold forever anyway, then I'd wait for it to wander closer to 10k than 15k.
Good luck.
|
Whereis Mebong
Invictus Australis
Scrap Iron Flotilla.
1
|
Posted - 2013.05.22 03:19:00 -
[26] - Quote
Its basically a wait and see approach, we need to see the usage, the moon count, who owns the moons, etc etc. The guys stockpilng are not going to sell @10k-15k, they will wait, and trickle feed as the market demands it. Come the patch, when t2 production changes to whats required, all t2 manurfactures will have to buy if they have not all ready, the racial r64's to build there respective t2 items, so its really a guessing game to see how much moves in the first few days of odyessy, or perhaps just before it.
Goons prob sitting on a squillion units of thulium anyways, thems and there crafty financial ways.
One this is a certain though, gone are the days when it wasn't worth towering a thulium. |
Alex Grison
Grison Interstellar
303
|
Posted - 2013.05.22 03:22:00 -
[27] - Quote
Ok guys.
About the Thulium.
I stockpiled a lot of it.
And it spilled.
Docking bay #1578 at Jita 4-4 is now closed. |
mynnna
GoonWaffe
Goonswarm Federation
1177
|
Posted - 2013.05.22 03:40:00 -
[28] - Quote
Whereis Mebong wrote:Goons prob sitting on a squillion units of thulium anyways, thems and there crafty financial ways.
http://i.imgur.com/37PFau3.png
Not quite that much.
Member of the Goonswarm Economic Warfare Cabal |
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