Otto Runkter
Pator Tech School
Minmatar Republic
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Posted - 2014.03.23 00:24:00 -
[1] - Quote
I strongly suspect it will affect the more expensive minerals more than the cheapies. It doesn't take long to mine tremendous quantities of trit. Recyclers may out number miners, but takes a LOT of people recycling to equal what one guy can mine in a mack in an hour- and there's a LOT of macks out there mining scordite and veldspar in high sec. I wonder if you don't realize just how many miners there are in high sec. And in many systems all they have to mine is scordite and veldspar. They still strip them. We're talking many many belts, many many systems every day. The percentage of minerals used in high sec that come from reprocessing vs. mining has got to be much higher in noxium and megacyte than the cheapest minerals. Obviously a lot larger raw quantity of trit comes from reprocessing (and a lot more is needed as well), but it's a drop in the ocean compared to trit mined versus the rarer minerals that are maybe more of a drop in a Solo cup. OK, that's a bad analogy, I'm sure both are more than a drop, but you get the idea.
Due to the OCD psyche of miners combined with the fact that, with enough effort, ore yields can be slightly higher (theoretically significantly higher in upgraded null stations) than they are now I don't think trit prices will skyrocket. Even an increase of 1 ISK is, percentage-wise, a pretty huge gain. 950 nox is much more realistic than 10 trit (or even 7 trit for that matter). Personally, I think trit is more likely to stay the same or slightly decrease than it is to go up, as even a slight ore yield gain may be able to offset the recycling loss. Or will there be enough ore refined in null for those potentially large yield gains to come into play?
A big question is what percentage of minerals go into capital and supercapital production (or large battleship operations in null for that matter). If it's high then we probably will see some level 3 stations where I think they get ore yields like 115%-120% compared to what they are now, so that could offset A LOT of lost repossessed mod minerals. OR, and this is a cool possibility, if any group started LARGE scale ore refinement in null to re-import back into high sec. It would be pretty awesome to see a convoy of 80 freighters with a heavy carrier escort (also full of compressed ore or minerals) moving through null and back. If you could turn profits of even 15% on something that's as scalable as ore and minerals, although still maybe unlikely for someone to do, it could be possible. It's probably one of the most scalable business a multi-trillionaire could get into. Maybe takes too many people/accounts to get enough volume to make it worth the effort though, I really don't know.
One unknown factor, as in real life, is besides what effect this actually has, is what effect is it perceived to have? Whether in EVE or in the stock market knowing when to sell is often harder than picking winners. The run up to this change, that will be even more important, and even harder to predict. Even if I'm right we could see mineral prices shoot up if everyone agrees with you, regardless of who's right. If that happens, whatever you do, don't be afraid to sell. I hope it works for you (well... not really; I don't really want higher mineral prices, but I don't wish anyone to lose ISK is the point), but if trit gets to 6-6.5 just enjoy your profit (personally I'd dump at 5.5, but then I wouldn't invest in it in the first place). It ain't gonna get to 10. Of that I'm sure. Just remember if you do make some money, then it goes way back down, any token of gratitude for my wisdom will, as always, be much appreciated. It would be no fun sitting on that much trit if it did hit 6.5, only to fall down to 4 a couple months later, even though I wouldn't count on it spiking in the first place. OR, even if I'm wrong does everybody have huge piles of junk scattered around the galaxy that they're gonna reprocess now while they can and push prices down? Just how big is the collective pile of junk that everyone just kinda puts off doing something with? A few trillion worth of minerals? 20? 50? More!?!?? I'm sure it's huge in any case, but how huge is difficult to know or even guess at. If everybody liquidated that would be a hell of a thing. If you've got your finger on the pulse of the big industrialists and market movers maybe you have some chance of predicting the former "feeling"; the later size of the junk pile you'll just have to guess though. I'm not even gonna try to answer either.
Disclosure: I have no large mineral investments; I'm not confident that this couldn't go either way... or nowhere. I do think nox (or maybe even isogen) is a much better shot than trit though if I were to make a play at it. Although my theory about their recycling impact is correct, but the collective "junk reserve" is big enough and gets liquidated, they very well could be the worst investment- at least for awhile. That's why I'm sitting this one out. |