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EVE Reserve Bank Proposed Market in War Futures

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JP Moregain Gallente EVE Reserve Bank	Posted - 2006.09.28 23:45:00 - [1] Hi All, While I will continue to work on my long term project of helping to set up some bank infrastructure in EVE(if it is at all possible under the current game structure), the initiation of hostilities between BoB and ASCN set me to thinking. Why not create a market for War Futures as is done with U.S. Presidential elections by the University of Iowa? The trading of these instruments is usually a good predictor of election results, so I am hoping that the same effect might develop within EVE for wars. I don't want this to get out of hand, so I will be limiting trading accounts to 1000 isk until I can get appropriate infrastructure set up (read I will be doing this by spreadsheet for a while...)and learn the best way to manage this market. Proposed contracts for the month of October: "BW" = Bob Wins: ASCN suffers some loss of its current territory (current defined as as of 0:00 EVE time 09/29/2006) as displayed on the official territory maps of Joshua Foiritain (http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=331220) , by EVE time 0:00 of 11/01/2006. This contract pays 100 isk if the proposed conditions are met. "AW" = ASCN Wins: ASCN suffers no loss of current territory (current defined as as of 0:00 EVE time 09/29/2006), as displayed on the official territory maps of Joshua Foiritain (http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=331220) by EVE time 0:00 of 11/01/2006. This contract pays 100 isk if the proposed conditions are met. You will note these contracts are mutually exclusive. One of the two will pay 100 isk, the other will pay zero. You cannot short the contracts (sell contracts you don't already have) You cannot buy on margin (you must have cash in your account to buy contracts) For the first week we will only be accepting orders for "Bundle" trades for 100 isk each ( a bundle is both an BW and an AW contract). Notably, given that the contracts are mutually exclusive a bundle is inherently worth 100 isk no matter what. Once we hopefully have enough contracts issued for some liquidity (starting at 0:00 on 11/08/2006) we will begin taking buy and sell orders for the seperate contracts (either at "market" or a specific price between 1 isk and 100 isk) The clearing of the transactions will be done at least weekly and based on evemail timestamps for trade requests to my daughter's account (Anne Moregain). Note that the requests are only valid if 1) you have enough isk on you account to execute and 2) you have the contracts in your account to execute. I will report the results of trading at least weekly (hopefully more often) and will also be showing cash/contract balances with numbered accounts on the EVE Reserve Bank website so you can check you balances yourself, but with some privacy (no wardecs for bets please...) All opening account balances should be sent to the "Anne Moregain" account with the note: WAR FUTURES ACCOUNT, and followed by an EVE mail titled the same. Do not send more than 1000 isk or I will return all of your isk. This is not intended to be a money making venture at this point , but rather an experimental market. Joshua Foiritain (and all members of Coreli Corporation) is disqualified from opening an account. All characters less than 30 days old are also excluded ( I don't want 50,000 trial accounts involved). I will follow with more details, but if you want a general idea of how these markets work go to http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ as I intend to follow this model as close as I can within the confines of the game and RL time contraints. Thanks for your interest. Please ask questions and I am sure I have not thought of everything and would like to have the groundwork fully down before we begin trading the individual contracts on 11/08/2006. If I do not have sufficient interest to make this worth my time/learn something I will refund all isk. Best Regards, JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
Anne Moregain Gallente Moregain Holdings	Posted - 2006.09.28 23:47:00 - [2] Hi Daddy, Thanks for including me... Anne (THIS IS THE ACCOUNT FOR ALL TRANSACTIONS AND ACCOUNT OPENINGS. ANY ACCOUNT SPECIFIC REQUESTS SENT TO THE JP MOREGAIN ACCOUNT WILL BE IGNORED) "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
JP Moregain Gallente EVE Reserve Bank	Posted - 2006.09.28 23:52:00 - [3] RESERVED FOR FUTURE INFO "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
Treelox Amarr Storm Industries	Posted - 2006.09.29 00:06:00 - [4] Edited by: Treelox on 29/09/2006 00:07:59 your missing the third option, what if ASCN takes BOB territory? just pointing out an option you missed, not making a prediction, suggestion or smacktalk. Since your "AW" option isnt really winning, but maintance of the status quo. Signature edited - this is your last warning - Jacques
JP Moregain Gallente EVE Reserve Bank	Posted - 2006.09.29 01:50:00 - [5] Most definitely a possibility... Given that BoB was the first to declare their intention of 'all out war' I thought I would try to keep it simple with just 2 mutually exclusive contracts that were easily definable (this is just an experiment for now after all). If there is enough interest I will definitely expand the contracts available to cover more possibiliites. If I add the "Bob loses some territory" contract then I need to add the 'Neither loses any territory" and "both lose some territory" to completely cover the possibilities and have a zero sum game, as this market is set up to be... Either ASCN loses some territory or they don't, that is my fairly simplified starting point for now. I have also considered something even more simple: Either the ASCN Titan gets destroyed during October (as "TD" october contract) or the ASCN Titan survives the month of October ("TS" October contract). The only problem is verifibility of the event in this case by a third party. Though given the very small amounts of ISK we are dealing with as a starting point, I am not that worried about any arguements (this is basically an experiment for market geeks...) Let me know if you think the titan futures contracts would be more fun/ or if you think I should just go ahead and offer those for October also. JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
Treelox Amarr Storm Industries	Posted - 2006.09.29 02:16:00 - [6] Edited by: Treelox on 29/09/2006 02:19:46 Originally by: JP Moregain If there is enough interest I will definitely expand the contracts available to cover more possibiliites. If I add the "Bob loses some territory" contract then I need to add the 'Neither loses any territory" and "both lose some territory" to completely cover the possibilities and have a zero sum game, as this market is set up to be... no three way bet? from your orginal post i took it to really read as...... Originally by: JP Moregain "BW" = Bob Wins: ASCN suffers some loss of its current territory ASCN loses territory Originally by: JP Moregain "AW" = ASCN Wins: ASCN suffers no loss of current territory No one loses territory Thats why i offered the 3rd option BoB loses territory. I especially thought it prudent to bring it up, for the sake of argument. Say "BW" occurs and ASCN loses 10% of its current turf, but at the same time ASCN takes 20% of BOB's turf. While the conditions as you described them for a "BW" have occured, ASCN would have won more. Now betting......um i mean taking out futures on the Titan sounds a lot more cut and dry. 1. Titan survives October 2. Titan doesnt survive October Originally by: JP Moregain Either ASCN loses some territory or they don't, that is my fairly simplified starting point for now. that view, even though unintended shows bias on your part, and thus makes the impartialness of the future suspect, imo. Since normally in the RL, futures are based on a single comodity and the said value of that comodity. You in your intial proposal are offering value on ASCN territory but not Bob's. p.s. not trying to bust your nutz or anything like that, just having a discussion on a novel idea. Signature edited - this is your last warning - Jacques
Treelox Amarr Storm Industries	Posted - 2006.09.29 02:24:00 - [7] Edited by: Treelox on 29/09/2006 02:24:39 Originally by: Treelox Originally by: JP Moregain Either ASCN loses some territory or they don't, that is my fairly simplified starting point for now. that view, even though unintended shows bias on your part, and thus makes the impartialness of the future suspect, imo. Since normally in the RL, futures are based on a single comodity and the said value of that comodity. You in your intial proposal are offering value on ASCN territory but not Bob's. just to tie this back to, "U.S. Presidential elections by the University of Iowa". Comodity = presidental office value = canidate 1, canidate 2, etc, etc Signature edited - this is your last warning - Jacques
JP Moregain Gallente EVE Reserve Bank	Posted - 2006.09.29 02:30:00 - [8] Basically at that point we are getting into semantics and titles, rather than the clearly definable stuff. Pehaps I should just call them "A" contracts and "B" contracts to avoid any political entanglements. Using your above scenarios I would offer: "A" = ASCN Loses no territory and BoB loses some "B" = BoB Loses no territory and ASCN loses some "U" = Unclear results as either both lose some territory, or neither loses territory. I believe that would satisfy our need for both clarity and mutally exclusive results... Thanks for your feedback. JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."
Treelox Amarr Storm Industries	Posted - 2006.09.29 02:48:00 - [9] now to be the arse does the lost territory have to have been lost to the other allaince? or does loss to the vultures that will show up count? just helping ya flush out the fine print Signature edited - this is your last warning - Jacques
JP Moregain Gallente EVE Reserve Bank	Posted - 2006.09.29 03:08:00 - [10] Not being an arse at all, I appreciate the help/interest... It just has to be lost, not specifically lost to the other alliance. I dont want to be making judgement calls on when allies or Mercenaries are brought in... JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."

JP Moregain Gallente EVE Reserve Bank	Posted - 2006.09.30 04:12:00 - [11] First accounts opened. www.evereserve.com Thanks for participating in this experiment, lets see how it goes... JP "In JP We Trust, All Others Require Collateral..."


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