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Chekov Nikahd
Viziam
Amarr Empire
0
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Posted - 2016.01.04 05:13:31 -
[1] - Quote
Got a feeling the price is gonna drop further.
There's about 6 years worth (and counting!) of quafe zero dumped on the market so far, and price only fell by half. About every 5-7 days another years supply goes on the market. Total daily trade volume is up about 100x from previous baseline. I'd be willing to bet pretty much everyone trading it right now is a speculator. I've heard of people with 5,000+ stockpiled up in WH space still, so even after frostline ends (next day or two? Already?) the supply increase is going to continue, probably for a month or three.
When's the panic sell coming?
Some numbers:
~24-25 million units on the market over the course of about a month
For the past 2-3 years before Frostline, total volume was around 11,000 per day.
24m / 11k = 2181 days of supply. Divide by 360 = ~6 years of supply.
AFAIK, this isn't the ACTUAL volume of product, since stuff that gets bought, relisted and sold is counted twice (or more) from all the trading, but still, it's a very big increase, and I frankly don't see the price staying where it is right now for much longer.
Where's the floor? My guess is somewhere between 2-5m isk, but that's just intuition, not math.
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Cista2
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
198
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Posted - 2016.01.04 07:11:30 -
[2] - Quote
You don't know the 2016 daily volume of the product.
FYI, Geno 3 and 4 were given out for the second time more than half a year ago. Over half a year later, the daily volume is still TWO HUNDRED times higher than the volume before the re-release.
The People like Quafe. The People need Quafe.
My channel: "Signatures"
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Recommended: "The Biomass Bar" (for corpse selling)
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Chekov Nikahd
Viziam
Amarr Empire
0
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Posted - 2016.01.04 07:26:32 -
[3] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:The People like Quafe. The People need Quafe.
They sure do.
p.s. sell orders are beginning to pick up a bit. Think the sell-off is coming.
Get your liquid isk ready  |
Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
24
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Posted - 2016.01.04 07:31:12 -
[4] - Quote
The price is already at or very near the bottom.
When they first introduced the stuff they gave every account something like 4-5 cans of QZ. Evem woth all that supply the price was about 4m/can and could only be traded on contracts. It took 4+ years for the price to go from 4m/can to just under 20m/can in jita.
As soon as word got out that they were re-introducing QZ in the December patch people like me liquidated our stockpiles.
As soon as frostlines end we will return to the situation where we have a useful consumable with a fixed supply. Like before prices have no place to go but up. They are not going to go up quickly, but they will rise. It will likely take a year or 2 for the price to get back to pre-frostline levels.
Assuming they don't re-re-introduce QZ (or something similar) in a later patch owning the stuff is a good long-term investment imo.
Rothbard's Casino
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Cista2
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
198
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Posted - 2016.01.04 07:52:37 -
[5] - Quote
Edwin Rothbard wrote:The price is already at or very near the bottom. In fact there was a bottom 10 days ago when price hit 5 mil in Forge, 4 mil in many other regions. I doubt it will go below that again, but we'll see.
My channel: "Signatures"
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Recommended: "The Biomass Bar" (for corpse selling)
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Edwin Rothbard
Interstellar Arbitrage
24
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Posted - 2016.01.04 08:03:13 -
[6] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:In fact there was a bottom 10 days ago when price hit 5 mil in Forge, 4 mil in many other regions. I doubt it will go below that again, but we'll see.
Agreed. I just checked the 3 month price history graph in game and the "panic" selling was from late november to mid december and the bottom came in right after that. Now begins the slow slog upwards.
Rothbard's Casino
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Solecist Project
The Scope
Gallente Federation
30048
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Posted - 2016.01.04 15:11:04 -
[7] - Quote
Excuse me ... how can you determine a bottom?
I mean... why can't the price drop even lower, considering the insane amount of them?
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
The game has changed little from my point of view ... yet here I am, playing again with 3 accounts...
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Cista2
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
199
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Posted - 2016.01.04 15:37:29 -
[8] - Quote
Solecist Project wrote:Excuse me ... how can you determine a bottom?
I mean... why can't the price drop even lower, considering the insane amount of them? Hence *a* bottom.
I am guessing your 30,000 likes did not come from MD, during my absence.
My channel: "Signatures"
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Recommended: "The Biomass Bar" (for corpse selling)
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Solecist Project
The Scope
Gallente Federation
30075
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Posted - 2016.01.04 15:54:29 -
[9] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:Solecist Project wrote:Excuse me ... how can you determine a bottom?
I mean... why can't the price drop even lower, considering the insane amount of them? Hence *a* bottom. I am guessing your 30,000 likes did not come from MD, during my absence.
No, but they have no meaning whatsoever anyway.
Yes, a bottom. "Very near the bottom", see above, which means it won't go lower than that.
Hence my question how people determine such an "above zero" bottom.
If you don't like me asking questions, there's a "hide posts" button on the left. :)
Indahmawar Fazmarai wrote:
The game has changed little from my point of view ... yet here I am, playing again with 3 accounts...
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Cista2
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
199
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Posted - 2016.01.04 16:40:25 -
[10] - Quote
Solecist Project wrote:"Very near the bottom", see above Sorry, I thought your remark was directed at me.
The important thing when looking at the graph is that is that it has moved slowly and deliberately after the initial announcement shock. The bottom at 5 mil came after more than 10 days of availability of the things, and the price has since climbed slowly to double that price. If it should fall down towards 5 mil again, most people that have sold at 9-10 mil will be very happy to buy again.
Very very happy.
My channel: "Signatures"
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Recommended: "The Biomass Bar" (for corpse selling)
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Solecist Project
The Scope
Gallente Federation
30362
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Posted - 2016.01.05 15:21:07 -
[11] - Quote
Thank you!
RoAnnon wrote:
O Bob, wonGÇÖt you buy a new Svipul for me
I just scanned for sites and I found a C3
The fleet is now forming, FC wants T3s
O Bob, wonGÇÖt you buy a new Svipul for me
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