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probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 21:12:05 -
[1] - Quote
Introduction:
I've found a way to double all my liquid isk on patch-day. I want to get as much liquid isk as I can so that I can multiply it all. The thing I found is not patch speculation, it is just simple patch mechanics. It does not rely on demand, it does not rely on supply, it does not rely on the market at all. The only thing that can interfere is competition, and even then, all it can do is delay my cashing out. Competition is easy to spot, and there are no signs of competition right now (though that is probably just people being smart and not showing their cards 7 days ahead of time).
Simply, it pretty much is just every bit of liquid isk I have before patch-night will be multiplied post-patch. Complicated, every bit of liquid isk I have before patch-night will be multiplied post-patch, and out of it I will be able to withdraw 50bil per post-patch day that I log on. Again, independent of market forces.
Yes, this sounds ridiculous. Yes, I have checked it, both in theory, and in-game. No, I'm not going to talk about the method any more than I just did.
Meat of the post:
I would like more isk. I am liquidating everything that is not characters. That leaves me with nothing, other than characters, to use as collateral. I use all the characters that I have, and I would resume using them after the patch happens. Hence, instead of just melting them down, selling them at 5.5mil sp, and then re-making them, I would like to simply pawn/collateral them, and buy them back post-patch. I am looking for something of the kind where I transfer all these alts pre-patch for some figure (say, 250bil), I do my patch magic, and post-patch I buy them all back for some much larger figure (say, 450bil).
List of alts that I want to turn liquid. I will naturally provide further details if there is interest. Note that they all have Cyber V and +5s:
- 9 x 5.6mil sp
- 3 x 8.5mil sp
- 9 x 10.1mil sp
- 2 x 17.7mil sp
- 1 x 25.4mil sp (JF)
- 1 x 63.2mil sp (sub-cap PvP)
- 1x 14.6mil sp (BR / DST alt ; doesn't have +5s, but has emotional attachment due to KB)
I've been informed that 5.5mil sp Cyber V, +5s, characters are going for ~4bil on the bazaar. With that in mind, base price of the characters:
- 9 x 3.1bil
- 3 x 7.1bil
- 9 x 8.8bil
- 2 x 16.7bil
- 1 x 24.7bil
- 1 x 64bil
- 1 x 13.5bil
And price I'd have to pay to re-inject them:
- 9 x 7.2bil
- 3 x 11.8bil
- 9 x 14.3bil
- 2 x 26.3bil
- 1 x 38.4bil
- 1 x 104.9bil
- 1 x 21.4bil
Having quickly calculated that, the minimum I'd be looking at is actually the exact example I used earlier. I get 250bil pre-patch, and I pay 450bil post-patch to get them back. I would obviously love to get more than 250bil, but that would be asking for an undercollateralized loan.
Methods of carrying this out? Well, there's two I've come up with:
- I pawn these characters. Someone buys them for 250bil, then sells them back to me for 450bil.
- I use these characters as collateral for a loan. Someone loans me 250bil, I transfer these characters to a 3rd party, pay the 3rd party 1 month of PLEX costs, I return the loan post-patch with 200bil interest, I get the characters back from the 3rd party.
As far as I can tell, both methods are equivalent for me. I like the word "collateralized loan" more than "pawn", but I don't care either way.
Personal background:
What I'm probably best-known for right now is crashing the T3 sub Jita market for about 2 months now. I've had 2-3 days worth of daily bought value of every T3 sub up as buy orders in Jita for quite a while now, shutting most other producers out of Jita. Many people can attest to this. Before I found this patch-trick, I was getting ready to start doing the same thing for T3 destroyers. I'm the guy that, every time someone asks "Who's dumping T3 sub prices like this?", links to a ****** altervista.org website. This is why I actually need all those characters (minus the PvP one), and this is why I dare hint that giving me an undercollateralized loan would be okay.
I stopped producing yesterday, and as of this morning I'm starting to relist my existing stock at lower and lower prices, to get it all to sell before the patch hits.
I've actually been around for much longer than 2 months. It's just that in the past, whenever I'd flood some part of the market like this, eventually someone would message me in game and we'd come to some sort of deal where they'd 0.01isk for me. If anyone remembers RUSROG from Hard Knocks (note, I never actually saw his forum thread, only his full API key), I was the thing he was investing in.
I like walks by the beach, watching the sun set, and shitposting. You can trace back my shitposting at least two years on /r/eve, and people on Slack can attest that I've also started shitposting there this year. I am never, ever, giving up this character name, not in a million years. Same with my PvP alt I'm wanting to pawn. If someone steals that alt, I'll have a new long-term goal in Eve.
References:
Well, I mean.
- Rita Jita, Jupitess are two people that often light up my Wallet Transactions and could confirm my manufacturing.
- Most regulars of the #scc-lounge can confirm my shitposting.
- Daugan once even logged into Eve, ran a locator agent, and came by to visit my POS. He liked my set-up.
- rhivre was on #scc-lounge when I came to the realization that I can use the patch to multiply isk, and he saw the comments I made about it before I wisened up and deleted them all.
- A couple of other people from Slack have had given me private advice about how to procure loans, but I won't name them in public.
|

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 21:12:16 -
[2] - Quote
FAQ:
Q: This sounds like bullshit. A: Sure does!
Q: I know what your trick is and I'm going to reply to this thread with a post detailing exactly how to do it. A: Please don't.
Q: Why don't you just strip down, sell, and re-inject all those characters? A: That is my last resort. First off, I have a level of attachment to even the indy alts. Second off, I am holding on to the hope that I'll be offered an undercollateralized loan.
Q: Why aren't you a bit more serious about this? A: I have 0 credibility and thus 0 expectations.
Q: Why don't you post your Evernus / EveMentat / IPH / etcetera? A: I started at a time when all those tools were, well, not useful compared to what I could code. I made my own tools from scratch. They're not user-friendly. (They're still better than EveMentat and IPH last I checked.) And the only personal logs they keep is daily production lists, which I imagine is useless. I can give you cache-scraped historical market data from 2012 onwards if you want it though!
Q: Can I just give you money, have you double it, and get it back post-patch? A: If you trust me, yeah, you definitely can. Just know that: 1) The patch will do more than just double it. That was just meant to catch the eye. So I'm going to making a higher profit than you'd think. 2) If you give me 1T, I can only withdraw 50bil/day (technically up to 100bil with competition and 150bil with 0 competition, but I prefer pessimism). |

Thermal Damage
Black Rebel Rifter Club The Devil's Tattoo
189
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 21:33:05 -
[3] - Quote
I feel like you have overvalued your toons.
I can lend you 30bil for your subcap pvp toon.
I was found guilty of Nitshe by the CoCaP
|

Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
875
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 21:39:36 -
[4] - Quote
As he mentioned in his post, I did see what probag posted in Slack before he realised that it might be a bad idea to tell a room full of people about his findings.
I cant/wont say whether it will pay off or not, so, as with all investment stuff in MD, people will have to look at the value of the characters and see whether they think it is worth it for them.
Fluffy Bunny Pic!
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probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 21:53:02 -
[5] - Quote
Thermal Damage wrote:I feel like you have overvalued your toons.
I can lend you 30bil for your subcap pvp toon.
Maybe. I valued them at extraction profit + 4bil once they reached 5.5mil sp. I was advised that that was an approximately fair evaluation. If that's wrong, that's wrong, and I'll get less isk out of it.
Though that particular toon... I'm going to need a 3rd party :). |

Absolute Trading
Natural Trading II
5
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 22:09:35 -
[6] - Quote
Q: If on my ISK the ROI is 80%, what % you make on it?
Q: Can you share a eveboard of the JF toon? Q: Does it have a JF?
Q: Do any of the other chars have maxed/high jump navigation?
I would consider the JF toon, even more if it has a JF. |

Marsha Mallow
2825
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 22:10:35 -
[7] - Quote
Confirming a private discussion on slack with OP regarding this proposal.
I valued stripped alts at 3.5-4b @ 5m SP based upon current bazaar prices (utility alts with +5s and optimised mapping tend to get closer to 4b). See examples: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5. Prices have settled around this level since Injector/Extractors were introduced and the market remains reasonably strong as people are investing in faming alts.
Can't speak as to the investment proposal itself, but if anyone has some ISK to invest and is willing to accept characters as collateral this might be worth a look.
Knowing they have more SP than I do isnGÇÖt going to stop me from taking the fight if I was going to take it.
|

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 22:27:29 -
[8] - Quote
Absolute Trading wrote:Q: If on my ISK the ROI is 80%, what % you make on it?
Q: Can you share a eveboard of the JF toon? Q: Does it have a JF?
Q: Do any of the other chars have maxed/high jump navigation?
I would consider the JF toon, even more if it has a JF.
A: What I make on it due to the patch? I've been advised to not give out unnecessary details, but I will personally make between 200% and 2000% on any isk I have. What will I offer you? I'll actually edit this into the 2nd post. I'm willing to offer 80% per month on everything that is collateralized, and 25% per month on anything extra (uncollateralized)
A: I would have to make an eveboard of it. Give me a while. It has JF V, Freighter V, Minmatar Freighter V, with Gallente Freighter V almost done. JDC V and JFC V too. A: It does have a JF currently.
A: I extracted JF skills off all but 2 alts, and the other one is kind of unpawnable at the moment. Sorry :/. |

lanyaie
Nocturnal Romance Cynosural Field Theory.
1099
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 22:40:27 -
[9] - Quote
I'll post some figures here in a bit.
Spaceprincess
My services thread
|

Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
847
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 23:07:48 -
[10] - Quote
You're valuing these at like double the quick liquidation price, which is a huge risk for the lender / third party who has to deal with a minimum of 9 accounts.
The interest would make it worth it, but people have defaulted over much less.
WTS ME 10 TE 20 BPOs & BPO Packs
WTS Collectible Large Rigged Small/Medium Ships
|

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 23:25:31 -
[11] - Quote
Elizabeth Norn wrote:You're valuing these at like double the quick liquidation price, which is a huge risk for the lender / third party who has to deal with a minimum of 9 accounts.
The interest would make it worth it, but people have defaulted over much less.
I can and will halve the valuation then. I don't like risk. Give me some time to find time, and to seek opinions. |

Caleb Ayrania
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
302
|
Posted - 2016.04.20 23:59:28 -
[12] - Quote
You could have found a unicorn, but I find it highly risky to bet on anything relating to patch changes.
In these there are always 3 scenarios..
1. The change is not scalable and thus any benefit is practically impossible to "abuse" above a certain level. These are also often tweaked later, so not a lasting benefit.
2. The oportunity is considered a mistake and an exploit from ccps side and as soon as its discovered any benefits after that is void and rolled back, and risking the "user" getting banned.
3. The change is public known and the competition effect will be a lot larger than the investor expects, a great example would be the good old Battleship changes "sure thing" that everyone and their mother got in on and it took 2 years to dry up the overstock.
Aside from these 3 basic ones, there have been a few outside these categories, but they are extremely rare, and usually goes in the negative direction to players, so its more related to potential huge loss, and who got out in time, than the positive speculation ones..
I wish you good luck with your project, but would not touch something like this with a 10 foot pole, especially knowing that ccp are not as naive as they were 5+ years ago.. |

Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
847
|
Posted - 2016.04.21 00:38:32 -
[13] - Quote
probag Bear wrote:Elizabeth Norn wrote:You're valuing these at like double the quick liquidation price, which is a huge risk for the lender / third party who has to deal with a minimum of 9 accounts.
The interest would make it worth it, but people have defaulted over much less. I can and will halve the valuation then. I don't like risk. Give me some time to find time, and to seek opinions.
I'd fill this for around extraction price, but unless you have some sort of attachment to these characters, do you really want to pay out so much in interest when you could just liquidate the characters and buy similar ones with the profit / ISK you would save from not paying any interest to investors.
WTS ME 10 TE 20 BPOs & BPO Packs
WTS Collectible Large Rigged Small/Medium Ships
|

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.21 02:22:36 -
[14] - Quote
lanyaie wrote:Value of collateral
The base price of your 5.5m characters is quite irrelevant to me as an investor that wants their money back ASAP, but I'm going to assume that I can pawn them off for 1b profit each taking into account the 2 plex transfer cost. I am now out 109billion ISK.
Obviously, extracting characters is not the best way to recoup my losses, but as a potential investor - I do not want to have to individually sell 29 characters. Even if I was to do so, I'm pretty sure I would not be able to close the 109b difference that remains to be filled by selling.
I think this is pretty much what I got as well. It's just that I was valuing advised by a character-trader, for the audience of character-traders, who would apparently take the husks at 3.5-4bil each. If that does not happen, I will give up on getting that extra 3.5-4bil each and just take Liz Norn up on her offer.
lanyaie wrote: Initial investment Holding 29 characters as collateral requires me to pay an amount of 9.5 billion in plex fees per month. Transferring 29 characters will cost you roughly 30b and another 30b to get them back. Although, the seller is required to pay the fee as per the CCP rules so you'd have to work around that. I'm just going to assume you'll be paying all the fees the investor has to deal with. Having said that, you will be paying an initial amount of 30b and then an additional 9b per month. At the end, you'll pay another 30b. This leaves us with 69b of any profits you make to simply "disappear"
The character transfer cost is actually twice of what you think :p. So that's actually 120bil + ~10bil per month. The key is that I only pay half of that up front: 60bil. If I can pay 60bil to transfer these characters and get an immediate injection of 120bil back, that's worth it. In the first sentence of the thread, I talk about doubling my isk. In that case I break even (120 - 2 x 60), and the multiplication factor on my method is actually a few times higher than two. So I make a profit, no matter how much I have to pay post-patch.
Quote:Not to mention that IF anything falls through in your investment, you will be down at least 70b in plex fees that cannot be recouped.
70bil is not hard to cover. If anything happens, I'm already down ~30bil due to liquidating all my assets, and more importantly for me it means I'll have had to pause my operation for a couple of weeks.
I should have 350bil liquid by patch-day, on my own, no loans or pawning. That's enough to cover 200bil interest + 70bil PLEX fees. I know how to work my way up from being under 50bil net worth; I was there last year, and the only reason I'm up to my current amount is because I made myself a new goal that required more capital. |

Thermal Damage
Black Rebel Rifter Club The Devil's Tattoo
193
|
Posted - 2016.04.21 06:41:02 -
[15] - Quote
30bil still stands for that pvp toon. I'm fine with using a third party.
Details regarding transfer and subscription fees are still a bit murky to me. If you are happy to accept 30bil, mail me regarding details
I was found guilty of Nitshe by the CoCaP
|

Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
875
|
Posted - 2016.04.21 12:22:15 -
[16] - Quote
Ok, so, I have spoken at length last night and this morning with Probag about his plan.
I can confirm that what he says in his OP regarding the plan is accurate (to the best of my knowledge regarding Eve)
Fluffy Bunny Pic!
|

Pookoko
Sigma Sagittarii Inc.
154
|
Posted - 2016.04.21 19:53:19 -
[17] - Quote
I can't comment on the OP's business plans, as I don't know what it is. But I can confirm from transaction records that he has indeed been dumping T3 subs of many varieties in Jita, which I'm personally very happy with. |

Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
245
|
Posted - 2016.04.22 00:39:27 -
[18] - Quote
So much trouble for so little isk.
Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
|

Lord Ra
Section XII The Southern Querious Drug Cartel
60
|
Posted - 2016.04.22 09:24:08 -
[19] - Quote
probag Bear wrote:FAQ: Q: This sounds like bullshit. A: Sure does! Q: I know what your trick is and I'm going to reply to this thread with a post detailing exactly how to do it. A: Please don't. Q: Why don't you just tell someone trustworthy the method you found, so they can vouch for it? A: Paranoia. I may yet choose to do that, especially if people express interest in that option.Edit: I have told rhivre. Q: Why don't you just strip down, sell, and re-inject all those characters? A: That is my last resort. First off, I have a level of attachment to even the indy alts. Second off, I am holding on to the hope that I'll be offered an undercollateralized loan. Q: Why aren't you a bit more serious about this? A: I have 0 credibility and thus 0 expectations. Q: Why don't you post your Evernus / EveMentat / IPH / etcetera? A: I started at a time when all those tools were, well, not useful compared to what I could code. I made my own tools from scratch. They're not user-friendly. (They're still better than EveMentat and IPH last I checked.) And the only personal logs they keep is daily production lists, which I imagine is useless. I can give you cache-scraped historical market data from 2012 onwards if you want it though! Q: Can I just give you money, have you double it, and get it back post-patch? A: If you trust me, yeah, you definitely can. Just know that: 1) The patch will do more than just double it. That was just meant to catch the eye. So I'm going to making a higher profit than you'd think. 2) If you give me 1T, I can only withdraw 50bil/day (technically up to 100bil with competition and 150bil with 0 competition, but I prefer pessimism). Q: How much % are you actually willing to offer? A: 80% per month on everything collateralized, 25% per month on everything uncollateralized. The 25% figure is so small solely to lower the possibility that I scam (I can easily pay 25% on 1T). I can do 100% per month on everything, with no problem, but I feel that such a figure would drive off people, rather than attract them. Q: How soon are you willing to purchase your characters back for that 80% per month? A: I can easily do it on May 4th, and even if that's not 1 month, I'll still pay the full amount. I would prefer not to do it that particular week (following May 1st), as that is my Easter. But I can. Q: How certain are you of your method? A: 100% certain it is inevitable and cannot be fixed by any kind of last-moment change. 100% certain that it will multiply isk the way I calculated it to. 99% certain that competition can only slow down my cashing out, not actually stop it. References: Well, I mean.
- Rita Jita, Jupitess are two people that often light up my Wallet Transactions and could confirm my manufacturing.
- Most regulars of the #scc-lounge can confirm my shitposting.
- Daugan once even logged into Eve, ran a locator agent, and came by to visit my POS. He liked my set-up.
- rhivre was on #scc-lounge when I came to the realization that I can use the patch to multiply isk, and he saw the comments I made about it before I wisened up and deleted them all.
- A couple of other people from Slack have had given me private advice about how to procure loans, but I won't name them in public.
10/10 |

lanyaie
Nocturnal Romance Cynosural Field Theory.
1103
|
Posted - 2016.04.23 12:08:51 -
[20] - Quote
http://lanyaie.com/20169493.png
I doubt anyone actually offering you an uncollaterized loan is being serious besides wanting to know what you found.
The most serious offer is the one posted in this thread by Elizabeth Norn from what I can see. Also lol at "manager" being required 
Currently I'd just wait to see and if you don't get your goal, sell what you found to someone else to make money of of it.
Spaceprincess
|

Bumblefck
Kerensky Initiatives
11785
|
Posted - 2016.04.23 12:13:37 -
[21] - Quote
Would CCP have any objections to this, from an EULA POV? I myself can't see any, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there aren't any :D
Got a HoleySheet1 corpse? I'll buy it for 200m!
Bumble's Space Log
|

Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
875
|
Posted - 2016.04.23 15:33:23 -
[22] - Quote
lanyaie wrote:http://lanyaie.com/20169493.png I doubt anyone actually offering you an uncollaterized loan is being serious besides wanting to know what you found. The most serious offer is the one posted in this thread by Elizabeth Norn from what I can see. Also lol at "manager" being required  Currently I'd just wait to see and if you don't get your goal, sell what you found to someone else to make money of of it.
"manager" was just a joke term that someone used when I was told the plan, something like "So I guess that Rhiv is your manager now"
In reality, all I am doing is batting questions from people going "WHATS THE SEKRIT", and replying to mails because eve mail on a phone is really bad for formatting and reading :p
Fluffy Bunny Pic!
|

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.24 20:59:13 -
[23] - Quote
Offer has been taken up by May Darkb at 240bil. Getting things ready for the transfer now.
440bil will be returned by May 24th in exchange for my characters back. |

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:17:50 -
[24] - Quote
May Darkb wrote: Hey there,
I am pretty good, finally become sober now. I am going to send isk. 240 millions right?
Oh, wait, that's 240 BILLIONS?! But I only have 240m in my pant's pocket, wait again, I am not wearing pants. Will you accept 240m as loan lol? If yes, I will use it to buy all your characters out of mercy. :)
omg, what terrible things have I done. I just ruined you auction with several mails. I shut down your broadcast for rep, neutralized your time, I am sooo sorry for that. Now your time is less than 20 hrs, and you have no way to get a loan. You have to melt down your toons, by your hand, in tears. I must have destroyed a squad of titans and ******** their pilots' minds.
So what should I say? op success lol. I will remember this killmail even after quitting eve. I am ready for that this time.
Okay then. Back to the original plan: going to just manually extract everything.
May Darkb, your actually was success. Having all those alts drop corp, pause their skill queues, and then post in the thread through the "your account is younger than a week, and so you have to wait 5 minutes between posts" filter was incredibly painful. I never want to go through that again. |

Elizabeth Norn
Nornir Research
852
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:25:44 -
[25] - Quote
Well the thread is still up .
WTS ME 10 TE 20 BPOs & BPO Packs
WTS Collectible Large Rigged Small/Medium Ships
|

Nixarat Syfodias
Phantasm Rtd.
2
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:35:39 -
[26] - Quote
I'm investing 5b. I expect 10b to be returned by May 3rd. Isk transferred to the character probag Bear. Probag, please confirm receipt of isk. |

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:38:31 -
[27] - Quote
Nixarat Syfodias wrote:I'm investing 5b. I expect 10b to be returned by May 3rd. Isk transferred to the character probag Bear. Probag, please confirm receipt of isk.
Confirmed. I will post when I return your 10b. |

Karin Yang
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
26
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:40:04 -
[28] - Quote
lol, actually you may still get some loan from me. |

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:45:47 -
[29] - Quote
Karin Yang wrote:lol, actually you may still get some loan from me.
For the characters? Please yes. I don't want to have gone through the work of setting up that hellish thread for nothing. PM me. |

Thermal Damage
Black Rebel Rifter Club The Devil's Tattoo
200
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:48:26 -
[30] - Quote
My offer still stands
I was found guilty of Nitshe by the CoCaP
|

Karin Yang
Sebiestor Tribe Minmatar Republic
26
|
Posted - 2016.04.26 20:50:54 -
[31] - Quote
probag Bear wrote:Karin Yang wrote:lol, actually you may still get some loan from me. For the characters? Please yes. I don't want to have gone through the work of setting up that hellish thread for nothing. PM me. PMed |

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.27 21:21:59 -
[32] - Quote
As Tuesday dragged on, I reverted to my bitter self and grew more and more disillusioned with the world. I ended up turning my pre-patch alarm off and going back to sleep, so eventually, I only had time to throw about 70bil into this. 70bil multiplied still isn't bad, but it's definitely not story-worthy.
My mistake was telling rhivre about this. That made me feel obligated to treat the entire matter with at least an air of seriousness, instead of just shooting the **** and teasing people about it like I had originally planned. Not to say that I wasn't feeling the temptation to treat this seriously regardless. I just would not have acted on it. Wouldn't have lost any sleep, wouldn't be feeling any disappointment right now, would've extracted all my sp without actually trying to pawn it instead.
Going to pay rhivre and Nixarat after I get some sleep, then go away until manufacturing structures get added into the game.
May Darkb, thank you for being a ray of hope in that otherwise terrible yesterday. You actually cheered me up quite a bit; without your stunt, if everything else had gone identically, I don't think I would've actually bothered to wake up before the patch and try to throw at least a bit of isk at it.
tl;dr: "probag's really quite bitter right now that he didn't manage to successfully scam anyone" |

Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
877
|
Posted - 2016.04.27 22:46:45 -
[33] - Quote
probag Bear wrote:As Tuesday dragged on, I reverted to my bitter self and grew more and more disillusioned with the world. I ended up turning my pre-patch alarm off and going back to sleep, so eventually, I only had time to throw about 70bil into this. 70bil multiplied still isn't bad, but it's definitely not story-worthy.
My mistake was telling rhivre about this. That made me feel obligated to treat the entire matter with at least an air of seriousness, instead of just shooting the **** and teasing people about it like I had originally planned. Not to say that I wasn't feeling the temptation to treat this seriously regardless. I just would not have acted on it. Wouldn't have lost any sleep, wouldn't be feeling any disappointment right now, would've extracted all my sp without actually trying to pawn it instead.
Going to pay rhivre and Nixarat after I get some sleep, then go away until manufacturing structures get added into the game.
May Darkb, thank you for being a ray of hope in that otherwise terrible yesterday. You actually cheered me up quite a bit; without your stunt, if everything else had gone identically, I don't think I would've actually bothered to wake up before the patch and try to throw at least a bit of isk at it.
tl;dr: "probag's really quite bitter right now that he didn't manage to successfully scam anyone"
Its so much storyworthy.
Fluffy Bunny Pic!
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probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.27 23:14:10 -
[34] - Quote
10bil sent to Nixarat. |

Zahara Cody
Imperial Corrections Service.
254
|
Posted - 2016.04.28 00:45:30 -
[35] - Quote
That's too bad. I really had 10 tril to throw at this.
Hating is free, that's why poor people do it the best.
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probag Bear
Xiong Offices
90
|
Posted - 2016.04.28 01:05:51 -
[36] - Quote
Zahara Cody wrote:That's too bad. I really had 10 tril to throw at this.
That would definitely have made people notice post-patch. Alas. Maybe if we had had more concurrent online time, we could've actually gone through with the 3rd party idea. |

Sammy Jaay
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
1
|
Posted - 2016.04.28 04:13:31 -
[37] - Quote
So, let me get this right. There was no great ability to multiply your isk? And this was indeed a scam? |

May Darkb
School of Applied Knowledge Caldari State
0
|
Posted - 2016.04.28 04:50:43 -
[38] - Quote
probag Bear wrote:May Darkb wrote: Hey there,
I am pretty good, finally become sober now. I am going to send isk. 240 millions right?
Oh, wait, that's 240 BILLIONS?! But I only have 240m in my pant's pocket, wait again, I am not wearing pants. Will you accept 240m as loan lol? If yes, I will use it to buy all your characters out of mercy. :)
omg, what terrible things have I done. I just ruined you auction with several mails. I shut down your broadcast for rep, neutralized your time, I am sooo sorry for that. Now your time is less than 20 hrs, and you have no way to get a loan. You have to melt down your toons, by your hand, in tears. I must have destroyed a squad of titans and ******** their pilots' minds.
So what should I say? op success lol. I will remember this killmail even after quitting eve. I am ready for that this time.
Okay then. Back to the original plan: going to just manually extract everything. May Darkb, your actually was success. Having all those alts drop corp, pause their skill queues, and then post in the thread through the "your account is younger than a week, and so you have to wait 5 minutes between posts" filter was incredibly painful. I never want to go through that again. I should have said "plz move them all to Rens, and I would loan you 500m more for each one you moved" :) |

Nixarat Syfodias
Phantasm Rtd.
2
|
Posted - 2016.04.28 12:08:52 -
[39] - Quote
Confirm recieving 10b back.
edit: I might be the only person in EVE who actually got his isk doubled xD |

Areen Sassel
90
|
Posted - 2016.05.02 23:14:49 -
[40] - Quote
https://www.themittani.com/features/plex-wall-incident carries an explanation of what was going on... well, I say "explanation" but frankly the step where one actually turns a profit eludes me. At the end "You now have about 0 ISK in your wallet, and buy orders for a total of 250,000 PLEX on the market" - all of which will evaporate as soon as they are touched because you have no ISK to back them up. (Even if you retained a modest quantity, you'll never fill all 250,000 or anything like it).
Someone explain it to me? |

Rhivre
TarNec Invisible Exchequer
880
|
Posted - 2016.05.03 00:24:46 -
[41] - Quote
Areen Sassel wrote:https://www.themittani.com/features/plex-wall-incident carries an explanation of what was going on... well, I say "explanation" but frankly the step where one actually turns a profit eludes me. At the end "You now have about 0 ISK in your wallet, and buy orders for a total of 250,000 PLEX on the market" - all of which will evaporate as soon as they are touched because you have no ISK to back them up. (Even if you retained a modest quantity, you'll never fill all 250,000 or anything like it).
Someone explain it to me?
Because the orders dont fill all at once, and when he starts selling, he starts getting isk back to fill more orders
So, once 18000 have been bought and sold, he is left with profit on 18000 plex.
So, say he put in 100b, and got 1% profit on 18T isk, he would have 180b, if 2% 360b, if 3% 540b etc.
Fluffy Bunny Pic!
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Areen Sassel
90
|
Posted - 2016.05.03 02:47:50 -
[42] - Quote
Rhivre wrote:Areen Sassel wrote:Someone explain it to me? Because the orders dont fill all at once, and when he starts selling, he starts getting isk back to fill more orders.
This seems risky; the sellers have only got to get ahead of his cash-in-hand once, and every single order vanishes. Presumably he has to sleep sometimes.
Furthermore, I appreciate what you're saying - that in the ideal scenario, he could get the return on an enormous number of PLEX by having placed all these orders with the pre-patch broker fee so he's able to work with a smaller spread that anyone else... but what if the slump continues, and people just aren't buying enough? Again, all the buy orders go *pffft*. |

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
91
|
Posted - 2016.05.04 16:01:56 -
[43] - Quote
Areen Sassel wrote: This seems risky; the sellers have only got to get ahead of his cash-in-hand once, and every single order vanishes. Presumably he has to sleep sometimes.
That is indeed the only risk. I've already talked to two people who have pointed out that they could easily make all my buy orders evaporate. The only disincentive is that it would also make them lose a lot of isk in the process.
Quote:Furthermore, I appreciate what you're saying - that in the ideal scenario, he could get the return on an enormous number of PLEX by having placed all these orders with the pre-patch broker fee so he's able to work with a smaller spread that anyone else... but what if the slump continues, and people just aren't buying enough? Again, all the buy orders go *pffft*.
If the slump continues, I relist orders at a lower price. Instead of say a 3.888x muliplier at 1B, I have a 3.69x multiplier at 0.8B. Still worth it.
Quote:You have to keep them selling fast enough to refill the wallet to keep up with people selling into your buy orders.
Why? I think this is your main misconception. There's nothing that forces me to sell at a certain speed. I've played Eve for a total of ~180 minutes since patch-day so far. What would force me to stay on 24/7? |

Areen Sassel
95
|
Posted - 2016.05.04 18:08:17 -
[44] - Quote
probag Bear wrote:Areen Sassel wrote: This seems risky; the sellers have only got to get ahead of his cash-in-hand once, and every single order vanishes. Presumably he has to sleep sometimes.
That is indeed the only risk. I've already talked to two people who have pointed out that they could easily make all my buy orders evaporate.
If the market at large is mostly selling - especially, if it's relatively price insensitive because Mr VISA wants the ISK for a citadel right now - this will happen without effort on anyone's part, won't it?
Quote:Quote:You have to keep them selling fast enough to refill the wallet to keep up with people selling into your buy orders. I think this is your main misconception. There's nothing that forces me to sell at a certain speed. I've played Eve for a total of ~180 minutes since patch-day so far. What would force me to stay on 24/7?
Because otherwise you would risk, with your depleted wallet (if you had dumped all your ISK into it as originally planned), your wallet becoming empty and all your buy offers evaporating at once. If you're online, you can combine selling and relisting to stay solvent (although relisting all those orders would be agony [1]); if not, a sufficiently large market movement will wipe you out.
(To be clear, I'm not trying to play the usual forum willy-waving game. If you explain to me in a civil fashion why I am mistaken, I will be pleased and grateful.)
[1] I suppose having placed them all once you could stagger the prices on relisting, which would make a complete wipeout much less likely. |

probag Bear
Xiong Offices
92
|
Posted - 2016.05.04 21:59:10 -
[45] - Quote
Areen Sassel wrote: [1] I suppose having placed them all once you could stagger the prices on relisting, which would make a complete wipeout much less likely.
I relist all my orders at 700mil each (in reality, I did 850mil). When I log on, I bring them up to current market price two at a time. A complete wipeout would require someone to temporarily take PLEX prices down to 700mil. |
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