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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
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Posted - 2016.08.10 23:40:31 -
[1] - Quote
Greetings playas, this much I start a long thread.
For those who know me, howdy! For those who think they know me - get a life, it's just another alt. Messed up with some, they got all offensive and such, what they need is loveeeee...
For ease of explanation I will use February and July econ report. Now the following might not make sense or feel counterintuitive but I assure you, if there is some error in judgement it is due to the late night and some tequila, because tequila... anyway.
I need feedback on this to see if I am going right because main hypothesis going here is lack of economic regulation which leads to loss in playerbase. I tried to find more data but it was rather unachievable.
Thus we start by noticing that July edition lacks data by regions you can find in February edition.
- Active ISK - important measure of currency supply and its representation of economic wealth and purchase power fluctuation.
We see that since March 12 till August 16 supply gained almost whopping half a quadrillion isk. That's some good old QE right there.
- Productivity and Mining w/o considering destruction is roughly 3.5-4.5 Trillion ISK. If you see July results of productivity increase, those are citadels.
- Now check TOP 20 Key Econ FIgures. The acute change happened mainly in Net Exports change of roughly 150 T and Trade value in Jita drop from 707 T to 367 T ISK in volume. Some is written off by summer stagnation just like the increase of active isk. You can see august/september boredom every year on the chart.
- In export/import we see that Lonetrek has huge brakethrough in it's net results while Forge is walking back. We could assume that it is seasonal change between the two but more data is required.
- We also can see shrinkage of near-balanced reagions deviations in net exports figure which indicates a reduction in activity in those regions due to summer time which is mild and due to concentration of efforts on other matters as we can see with certain regions that started emerging.
- Tequila tastes to good to be too deep into analysis but I will try my best but nothing tastes as good as ISK sinks and faucets. I think they should include scam turnover for a more complete picture however we can see that everything goes well along the data with few changes mainly again due to summer shift and then you see the skills.
Yep, that is Skill injectors and extractors of the very rich of EVE screeching to gain more power in shorter period of time. I did some myself on other characters, believe me that is "everyone takes same time to train skills" dying right there. I am sorry but 3 Trillion increase in skills in 6 month?
Now check the bounty price increases of 9 Trillion in six month, isn't it just quackin' crazy? I wonder why...
- Velocity of currency - now we can see in July edition that magic spike after which all the economic reports started appearing every month. Player online peak was of 38K on circa 2nd February 16. Which was steady throughout last month considering November 15 circa drop, which showed something was going on which was mainly PLEX record.
Consequent flush of PLEX into economy which made everyone hungry for ISK became one of the reasons for increase in the velocity but the increased supply of ISK and stable productivity should have fomented inflation and we would see a general price increase. Considering Tranquility is closed economy, unles we start trading with Serenity, such increases in money supply are not beneficial in the long run without price increase adequate for the change.
Knowing that several paramters offset the gap in volumes we still have to see this general increase in prices but first there will be deflation.
- Considering that ISK is not backed by any real value good which could be PLEX but it is more of a bond-like commodity that foments the growth in supply of ISK. The trade of synthetic margins which stimulates shortages creates debt that cannot be paid which brings PLEX to huge levels of price. These levels having positive effect for players that buy PLEX from CCP, their numbers are insufficient to reduce overal price increase during the cycle, and their gains are shortcoming. This, in turn, makes in-game players of lower income give away more than they can afford which is long lasting saying in EVE: "Don't use what you cannot afford to lose."
Knowing that wealthy conglomerates fund wars with manipulations including PLEX ones, it is rather unsettling that the overal fall of player base dedicated to shallow gameplay will reduce in its numbers. The inability to support the conglomerates, shallow gameplay users will tend to leave the game altogether, with exceptions of low influence. The inability will continue with the ever growing supply of currency that doesn't represent true value of the goods and which would lead to hyperinflation.
If that happens, eve economy will follows the world economy. No rare materials be thet officer or DED modules or weaponry will be able to substitute and represent the currency as it is due to their various settings and uses which will lead everyone into dark age of barter.
- Increasing contract trading just shows how more players tend to bargain on terms far from station sale taxes and ever more speculative trade.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
|
Posted - 2016.08.10 23:41:09 -
[2] - Quote
Tequila ended up folks, I gotta go. I will reserve few slots to line up econ indices left and see whether hypothesis is consistent.
Share what you think, what you noticed that I might have overseen. Maybe some errors...
Phuuuu did all in one breath or rather in one bottle...
Nighty night
07
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
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Posted - 2016.08.10 23:41:58 -
[3] - Quote
Reserved... these posting timers make me suffer...
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
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Posted - 2016.08.10 23:44:06 -
[4] - Quote
Die last reservation. I promise. 07
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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Lex Gabinia
Res Repetundae
108
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Posted - 2016.08.11 00:24:31 -
[5] - Quote
Reserved for future ridicule, finger pointing and laughter. |
Doc Fury
Furious Enterprises
8540
|
Posted - 2016.08.11 00:47:07 -
[6] - Quote
tl;dr:
EVE is dying.. Now with big words and TPS reports.
.
Gÿ+
The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the ho's and politicians will look up and shout 'Save us!' and I'll look down, and whisper: 'Hodor'.
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ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
Escalating Entropy
10402
|
Posted - 2016.08.11 01:08:11 -
[7] - Quote
That first post there... is this what happens when financially obsessed people with Aspergers don a tinfoil hat?
How did you Veterans start?
The Mustache and Beard Thread
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Serene Repose
2625
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Posted - 2016.08.11 01:35:05 -
[8] - Quote
Voluminously inarticulate. Luminously ineffective. Now you've blocked out the space with a brave subject line, a revisit while sober might be in order. Should that happen, I'll then revisit and revise my response. Should that not happen, I'll chalk this up to more inebriated enthusiasm which inevitably fades with the light of day and ensuing hangover.
We must accommodate the idiocracy.
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Nevyn Auscent
Broke Sauce
3506
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Posted - 2016.08.11 01:48:43 -
[9] - Quote
@ Op. Your problem is you started with Feb.
Feb was actually a highly atypical month with massive trade volumes. Most of your 'points' are directly linked to the Citadel expansion, pre patch market speculation and preparation and post patch construction.
Go back to older data and you start to find interesting things.
About the only thing of any note you actually found was the average 10 trillion jump in bounty faucet which directly dates to citadel buffing carriers and a massive increase in carrier ratting as a result. |
Anke Eyrou
Hades Sisters
84
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Posted - 2016.08.11 05:48:33 -
[10] - Quote
Having read what to me appears to be a rant about markets and wasted 2 minutes of my time and a further 3 typing this reply shouldn't this be in the markets discussions forum?
I expect to get this post deleted or locked. So much for freedom of expression.
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Paranoid Loyd
9398
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Posted - 2016.08.11 06:11:50 -
[11] - Quote
Am I too late to reserve a table for 6? Meema and her 4 children (they're really cats) are in town, I really want to impress them.
Fix the Prospect! New Server Hardware!
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ShahFluffers
Ice Fire Warriors
Escalating Entropy
10404
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Posted - 2016.08.11 06:27:58 -
[12] - Quote
Paranoid Loyd wrote:Am I too late to reserve a table for 6? Meema and her 4 children (they're really cats) are in town, I really want to impress them.
Come to my booth Loyd! It is spacious and I already have cashews and drinks ready.
I'll get some orders of Fancy Feast for the "children." 
How did you Veterans start?
The Mustache and Beard Thread
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Bienator II
madmen of the skies
3547
|
Posted - 2016.08.11 07:20:29 -
[13] - Quote
reserved - spot for sale
how to fix eve: 1) remove ECM 2) rename dampeners to ECM 3) add new anti-drone ewar for caldari 4) give offgrid boosters ongrid combat value
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
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Posted - 2016.08.11 10:19:41 -
[14] - Quote
Nevyn Auscent wrote:@ Op. Your problem is you started with Feb.
Feb was actually a highly atypical month with massive trade volumes. Most of your 'points' are directly linked to the Citadel expansion, pre patch market speculation and preparation and post patch construction.
Go back to older data and you start to find interesting things.
About the only thing of any note you actually found was the average 10 trillion jump in bounty faucet which directly dates to citadel buffing carriers and a massive increase in carrier ratting as a result.
If you mean this. It will ocme in hand later on and it doesn't change the picture. Also before Citadel, the bounties jumped 4 trillion from february to march. Just in two month. If we consider Citadel launch on 27th April we can include April result as well where Bounty actually drop and Blueprints rise again. Only after in May Bounties rebounced back to higher values. Some of the points are linked to Citadel and it is rather a shock to economy then a major happening with short lasting volatility which we don't consider in here but was worth mentioning. Pre-market speculation? Elaborate on that one because I want to see what you mean rather than saying nothing while trying to say something. Also where do you have the data about carriers ratting as a result? Any evidence or is it general "knowledge"? I need to see it.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
|
Posted - 2016.08.11 10:20:39 -
[15] - Quote
Lex Gabinia wrote:Reserved for future ridicule, finger pointing and laughter.
That intellect of yours even with chipset won't do any better.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
17
|
Posted - 2016.08.11 10:22:04 -
[16] - Quote
ShahFluffers wrote:That first post there... is this what happens when financially obsessed people with Aspergers don a tinfoil hat?
Not obsessed but surely a tinfoil is in place... also Aspergers will allow me to protect myself from Reptilian mind control... uuuuuuu
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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Nana Skalski
Poseidaon
14365
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Posted - 2016.08.11 10:38:37 -
[17] - Quote
I too feel like I could understand everything after a bottle of Tequilla. 
Every part of a game helps to tell a story. =ƒôò
Where is Angry CONCORD guy when you need him.
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
18
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Posted - 2016.08.11 10:49:35 -
[18] - Quote
Doc Fury wrote:tl;dr:
EVE is dying.. Now with big words and TPS reports.
.
So you didn't understand it but draw a conclusion. Nice mental job right there. Also since when playerbase shrinkage is end of eve? Serenity is small, yet alive; but let's listen to guru of which we have dozens living in forums with superiority complex.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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Doc Fury
Furious Enterprises
8556
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Posted - 2016.08.11 14:39:09 -
[19] - Quote
William Legrand-Marx wrote:Doc Fury wrote:tl;dr:
EVE is dying.. Now with big words and TPS reports.
. So you didn't understand it but draw a conclusion. Nice mental job right there. Also since when playerbase shrinkage is end of eve? Serenity is small, yet alive; but let's listen to guru of which we have dozens living in forums with superiority complex.
Try posting while sober next time buckaroo.
Gÿ+
The accumulated filth of all their sex and murder will foam up about their waists and all the ho's and politicians will look up and shout 'Save us!' and I'll look down, and whisper: 'Hodor'.
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
18
|
Posted - 2016.08.11 14:50:26 -
[20] - Quote
Doc Fury wrote:William Legrand-Marx wrote:Doc Fury wrote:tl;dr:
EVE is dying.. Now with big words and TPS reports.
. So you didn't understand it but draw a conclusion. Nice mental job right there. Also since when playerbase shrinkage is end of eve? Serenity is small, yet alive; but let's listen to guru of which we have dozens living in forums with superiority complex. Try posting while sober next time buckaroo.
How do you know I was drunk or how do you know I finished whole bottle? Too much for a little man to think about I suppose.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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Dirty Forum Alt
Forum Alts Anonymous
491
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Posted - 2016.08.11 16:21:49 -
[21] - Quote
William Legrand-Marx wrote:How do you know I was drunk or how do you know I finished whole bottle? Too much for a little man to think about I suppose.
Scientifically proven fact - you *can not* be drunk if you leave at least 1 sip in the bottom of the bottle...  |
Solecist Project
32018
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Posted - 2016.08.11 16:45:27 -
[22] - Quote
I would like to request that you fill the reserved posts properly as well.
You reserved them, so there's more waiting.
Quote:Knowing that several paramters offset the gap in volumes we still have to see this general increase in prices but first there will be deflation. I want to write "so buy now, sell later just as usual", but then i recalled that prices don't necessarily are destined to go upwards only. You're saying prices go down at first and will go up significantly more afterwards. I say significantly, because it seems implied. You wouldn't bother mentioning it if prices after deflation just went back to their previous levels.
I'm trying to translate what you wrote into a way that brings it down to the core essentials with which everything can be deducted, but i'm too dumb to fully comprehend and researching it myself would take me far more time than i'd be comfortable with.
Can you tell me what I want to know?
The core essentials that allow me to travel that cognitive path of yours.
Cheers!
"That ringing in your ears you're experiencing right now is the last gasping breaths of a dying inner ear as it got thoroughly pulverised by the point roaring over your head at supersonic speeds." -- Tippia
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Serene Repose
2637
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Posted - 2016.08.11 19:08:18 -
[23] - Quote
hoo boy
We must accommodate the idiocracy.
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
26
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Posted - 2016.08.11 20:06:29 -
[24] - Quote
Solecist Project wrote:I would like to request that you fill the reserved posts properly as well. You reserved them, so there's more waiting. Quote:Knowing that several paramters offset the gap in volumes we still have to see this general increase in prices but first there will be deflation. I want to write "so buy now, sell later just as usual", but then i recalled that prices don't necessarily are destined to go upwards only. You're saying prices go down at first and will go up significantly more afterwards. I say significantly, because it seems implied. You wouldn't bother mentioning it if prices after deflation just went back to their previous levels. I'm trying to translate what you wrote into a way that brings it down to the core essentials with which everything can be deducted, but i'm too dumb to fully comprehend and researching it myself would take me far more time than i'd be comfortable with. Can you tell me what I want to know? The core essentials that allow me to travel that cognitive path of yours. Cheers!
That is exactly what I meant, it will cause deflation first after which it will go one of two most common ways, a even bigger inflation unless econ guy gets some decision and deflates it all. You can notice deflation every time in small cycles happening to certain goods every year. Also, I will fill the reserved slots as soon as I get time to do so.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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Anke Eyrou
Hades Sisters
85
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Posted - 2016.08.11 20:21:00 -
[25] - Quote
William Legrand-Marx wrote:Solecist Project wrote:I would like to request that you fill the reserved posts properly as well. You reserved them, so there's more waiting. Quote:Knowing that several paramters offset the gap in volumes we still have to see this general increase in prices but first there will be deflation. I want to write "so buy now, sell later just as usual", but then i recalled that prices don't necessarily are destined to go upwards only. You're saying prices go down at first and will go up significantly more afterwards. I say significantly, because it seems implied. You wouldn't bother mentioning it if prices after deflation just went back to their previous levels. I'm trying to translate what you wrote into a way that brings it down to the core essentials with which everything can be deducted, but i'm too dumb to fully comprehend and researching it myself would take me far more time than i'd be comfortable with. Can you tell me what I want to know? The core essentials that allow me to travel that cognitive path of yours. Cheers! That is exactly what I meant, it will cause deflation first after which it will go one of two most common ways, a even bigger inflation unless econ guy gets some decision and deflates it all. You can notice deflation every time in small cycles happening to certain goods every year. Also, I will fill the reserved slots as soon as I get time to do so.
You mean you will fill them when you have drunk some more Tequila to lossen up your rambling thought processes.
I expect to get this post deleted or locked. So much for freedom of expression.
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William Legrand-Marx
Nemesis Ad Astra
RUST415
31
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Posted - 2016.08.12 15:10:09 -
[26] - Quote
Anke Eyrou wrote:William Legrand-Marx wrote:Solecist Project wrote:I would like to request that you fill the reserved posts properly as well. You reserved them, so there's more waiting. Quote:Knowing that several paramters offset the gap in volumes we still have to see this general increase in prices but first there will be deflation. I want to write "so buy now, sell later just as usual", but then i recalled that prices don't necessarily are destined to go upwards only. You're saying prices go down at first and will go up significantly more afterwards. I say significantly, because it seems implied. You wouldn't bother mentioning it if prices after deflation just went back to their previous levels. I'm trying to translate what you wrote into a way that brings it down to the core essentials with which everything can be deducted, but i'm too dumb to fully comprehend and researching it myself would take me far more time than i'd be comfortable with. Can you tell me what I want to know? The core essentials that allow me to travel that cognitive path of yours. Cheers! That is exactly what I meant, it will cause deflation first after which it will go one of two most common ways, a even bigger inflation unless econ guy gets some decision and deflates it all. You can notice deflation every time in small cycles happening to certain goods every year. Also, I will fill the reserved slots as soon as I get time to do so. You mean you will fill them when you have drunk some more Tequila to lossen up your rambling thought processes.
To widen your thought process you need to follow the guys from the valley and fall into ocean of neurostimulants that will help you survive the creative crysis of the tech giants.
There is nothing worthy in this world even if others think it is worth something...
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Dornier Pfeil
Caldari Provisions
Caldari State
11
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Posted - 2016.08.12 19:07:15 -
[27] - Quote
ShahFluffers wrote:That first post there... is this what happens when financially obsessed people with Aspergers don a tinfoil hat?
Don't forget the tequila. NEVER FORGET THE TEQUILA!! |
Rhivre
TarNec
Invisible Exchequer
932
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Posted - 2016.08.19 17:34:03 -
[28] - Quote
So, your premise is "Lack of economic regulation causes a drop in playerbase"
How does that fit with player numbers pre-2014?
Perhaps the death of DUST514 caused the drop off in playerbase.
Fluffy Bunny Pic!
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TackyTachy1
Royal Amarr Institute
Amarr Empire
96
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Posted - 2016.08.21 03:17:38 -
[29] - Quote
My biggest problem is setting the proper tension on the tow line as I tow my massive spreadsheet through null-sec. And then the dirty so and so's keep mucking about with my carefully constructed and quite elegant formulae.
Either English is not his first tongue or he's split-faced.
Or both.
Forum Rep for a bunch of characters, couple corps
and one seriously Lost In Space multiboxer.
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