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March rabbit
Mosquito Squadron The-Culture
1885
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Posted - 2016.09.04 19:00:08 -
[31] - Quote
IChooseYou wrote:See, I tend to disagree. What is important is not that more people will grind for a plex, but rather, what is the ratio of people that will grind vs those that will buy plex with RL money and sell it on the market.
At least initially, I wouldn't be surprised if the new players decide to fork out $20-$60 to sell plex on the market and "be rich". Only once they are rich (which is not easy to do with t1 mods and non-faction ships), would they upgrade.
This would mean that, at least initially, plex prices would drop. You know the problem: they have nothing to use their ISK for. Skillset is so limiting that their most expensive fits will be around 20-30mil a pop (not talking about artificially inflated prices of meta stuff).
The same can be said about 'returning vets': most of their stuff they will not be able to use if they return as alphas. Not sure if i personally would enjoy to return to the game if i would need to buy new 'limited' stuff just to be able to do anything when my t2/deaspace stuff collecting dust in stations. And used to run lvl4s i will only be able to touch lvl2 (maybe)..... Or after pvp-eing in pirate/t2 ships i will enjoy to pvp in t1/meta stuff getting dunked all the time by omegas.
time will show ....
The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
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Alexi Stokov
State War Academy Caldari State
137
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Posted - 2016.09.04 23:14:44 -
[32] - Quote
I wonder if CCP will introduce the ability to purchase rights to train skills not initially allowed. Free to play games take in a surprising amount of money because they offer free play and the ability to spend a few $ to get a different charactors or weapon etc. What does eve offer currently for someone to purchase via $? PLEX and skins (of which how many can an alpha clone make use of?)? Seems a little bit limited to take advantage of what allows FTP to make money. |
Scotsman Howard
The Mjolnir Bloc The Bloc
154
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Posted - 2016.09.07 19:54:10 -
[33] - Quote
I think this whole thread is missing the main point. Right now there are two theories:
1. F2P players will grind to plex.
2. F2P players will buy plex for isk.
Both of these are misguided in my opinion, so let's start looking at 1.
1. F2P players will grind to plex their accounts. If this is true, then technically this player is no longer F2P. They are just another player who grinds to plex their account. Now yes, some of you will say that they can use plex to gain skills, and yes this is true, but if the person does not continuously plex the account then those skills are useless. According to the block, any skills not in the alpha list will not work even if trained. Those two statements mean we should not be looking at what a F2P player will do but rather a player who is just plexing rather than playing (something we already have).
2. F2P players will buy plex to sell for isk. What does this really get them? They either grind for their isk or pay money for the isk. If they buy plex (even if it is just for isk) then even if they are still alphas, they are no longer pure F2P. They are for the most part the same as a sub person (in the eyes of CCP) except for the skills they can train.
IMPORTANT NOTE: The above viewpoint is purposefully avoiding the implications on FW. The ability to get isk via LP in FW from hundreds of free accounts is something that would change what I said above if looked at in just that vacuum. |
Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
5902
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Posted - 2016.09.08 08:00:00 -
[34] - Quote
Nouva MacGyver wrote:Is there detailed information on what are the skill/gameplay restrictions of being an Alpha Clone yet? As a permanently docked Jita resident I may actually convert myself to this - but not if it takes away my trade skills or anything related to my performing these activities as it is, or gimps the communication or corporation management tools present to me now.
IIRC you will lose access to Tycoon, Wholesale and the 5th tier of Retail, which will seriously hamper trading characters. This includes losing the benefit of the skills if you already have them trained.
Not sure about Contracting.
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Toobo
Project Fruit House Solyaris Chtonium
141
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Posted - 2016.09.08 08:14:13 -
[35] - Quote
I have a different perspective, not on economy, but on F2P crowd. You'd be surprised how much those F2P gamers spend in cash to buy Loot Box, Card Packs, Tokens, whatever they are.
F2P is very commercially successful model atm because people spend a LOT to get ahead on their 'free' game.
People spend thousands of dollars for microtransacrions which often ends up more than flat fee subscription model like EVE.
If CCP 'progress' with microtransacrion successfully without harming the game they could be in for good success.
I don't think F2P with the only commercial goal being turning them into subscribers is what CCP is thinking. That would be too naive.
If the commercial people at CCP have studied and planned for this, I would imagine they have cash cow microtransaction models for future.
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Tipa Riot
Federal Navy Academy Gallente Federation
2835
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Posted - 2016.09.08 13:48:39 -
[36] - Quote
Toobo wrote:I have a different perspective, not on economy, but on F2P crowd. You'd be surprised how much those F2P gamers spend in cash to buy Loot Box, Card Packs, Tokens, whatever they are. (...)
With the F2P model proposed by CCP so far, Alpha players have nothing to gain from injecting cash into the game except becoming Omegas, then comes skill injectors and the vanity stuff from the store. We will see, whether this is enough. A next step could be to axe subscription plans and have Omega status only granted by PLEX. But this would be a risky move for CCP ...
I'm my own NPC alt.
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Toobo
Project Fruit House Solyaris Chtonium
141
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Posted - 2016.09.08 15:04:38 -
[37] - Quote
Tipa, yes as things stand now and what's announced, what you say is correct. But I have a feeling that there will be more goodies to come as microtransactions for Alpha players. For some time I foresee Omega subscription continuing as we are used to, but I wouldn't be surprised if microtransactions become more varied and available in small chunks for alpha players. They could tie it with Aurum or do direct cash purchase, so you can be Alpha player but can pay $$$ to unlock things like being able to use small T2 weapons, T2 tanks, or some new faction mods suited to these players available through random goodie bag.
I imagine one could be an Alpha player and pay 99 cent to access T2 weapons for a week. 1.99 dollar to buy a goodie bag that contains faction mods useable on Alpha pilots, etc.
CCP cannot just rely on enticing and turning Alpha players into Omega subscription as a commercial model. My tin foil hat says CCP will (or has already in plan) develop microtransactions to monetise from Alpha players. 0.99 dollar here, 1.99 dollar there.
I'm purely thinking from commercial point of view, not eve pov. So yes, I could be wrong, but I see this as the way forward for CCP yo rake in cash.
Toobo is a lucky talisman. Try Toobo's lucky referral link at the awesome iwantisk website and have a great time
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Remeber - you win by luck and lose by luck. Don't go crazy. ;)
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March rabbit
Mosquito Squadron The-Culture
1885
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Posted - 2016.09.08 15:27:15 -
[38] - Quote
Algarion Getz wrote:The change to F2P will without doubt attract hordes of new players.
- The casuals will ragequit after they get wtfpwned the 10th time by a maxxed out Svipul and they will perceive EVE as a terrible P2W game.
- The hardcore F2P players will spend an insane amount of time grinding ISK and drive up the PLEX prices.
Players who cant afford or dont want to pay a 12Gé¼ sub will never buy 20Gé¼ PLEXes. Demand for PLEX will skyrocket, while supply wont increase much. I predict that a PLEX will cost 3-4 bill 1 year after the change to F2P. AFAIK you don't need real money to start account now. And being 'hardcore F2P player' you already can grind for PLEX. You don't need many SPs or shiny ship/fit. FW farming already provides easy ISK right from the start.
So what will change in November?
The Mittani: "the inappropriate drunked joke"
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IChooseYou
Tradors'R'us
11
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Posted - 2016.09.08 16:24:10 -
[39] - Quote
March rabbit wrote:Algarion Getz wrote:The change to F2P will without doubt attract hordes of new players.
- The casuals will ragequit after they get wtfpwned the 10th time by a maxxed out Svipul and they will perceive EVE as a terrible P2W game.
- The hardcore F2P players will spend an insane amount of time grinding ISK and drive up the PLEX prices.
Players who cant afford or dont want to pay a 12Gé¼ sub will never buy 20Gé¼ PLEXes. Demand for PLEX will skyrocket, while supply wont increase much. I predict that a PLEX will cost 3-4 bill 1 year after the change to F2P. AFAIK you don't need real money to start account now. And being 'hardcore F2P player' you already can grind for PLEX. You don't need many SPs or shiny ship/fit. FW farming already provides easy ISK right from the start. So what will change in November?
You shouldn't underestimate the marketing that will be associated with this F2P event. The way I understand it, CCP will use this to re-brand itself - and try to get a ton of new players. CCP is not going to target the F2P audience. F2P is only there to get them started.
With this influx of new people that know little to nothing about the game, I suspect that a lot of the new players who fall in love will subscribe and some fork out the $ for a plex. I don't think that people will want to stay in the F2P clone and I don't think that they will want to grind for a plex in a T1 cruiser (certainly not the majority).
Buying all pilots at the best prices out there!
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Princess Adhara
University of Caille Gallente Federation
50
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Posted - 2016.09.09 02:54:52 -
[40] - Quote
Toobo wrote:Tipa, yes as things stand now and what's announced, what you say is correct. But I have a feeling that there will be more goodies to come as microtransactions for Alpha players. For some time I foresee Omega subscription continuing as we are used to, but I wouldn't be surprised if microtransactions become more varied and available in small chunks for alpha players. They could tie it with Aurum or do direct cash purchase, so you can be Alpha player but can pay $$$ to unlock things like being able to use small T2 weapons, T2 tanks, or some new faction mods suited to these players available through random goodie bag.
I imagine one could be an Alpha player and pay 99 cent to access T2 weapons for a week. 1.99 dollar to buy a goodie bag that contains faction mods useable on Alpha pilots, etc.
CCP cannot just rely on enticing and turning Alpha players into Omega subscription as a commercial model. My tin foil hat says CCP will (or has already in plan) develop microtransactions to monetise from Alpha players. 0.99 dollar here, 1.99 dollar there.
I'm purely thinking from commercial point of view, not eve pov. So yes, I could be wrong, but I see this as the way forward for CCP yo rake in cash.
If they go the way of microtransactions, what makes you think they will restrict them to alpha clones? Other games with a freemium model don't.
Soon new skills/ships/structures will require EVERYONE (omega clones included) to buy an unlock via microtransaction. Then we'll see lots of forum threads like:
PLAYER 1: w00t? Greedy developer, I already pay my subscription! PLAYER 2: Your subscription only pay for server maintenance, electric bill etc. You have to pay for NEW CONTENT like everyone else! PLAYER 1: But I never had to! Expansions should be free for subscribers! PLAYER 2: Don't be an entitled kid, you shouldn't expect things FOR FREE! Developers have to eat, too! ....
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Princess Adhara
University of Caille Gallente Federation
50
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Posted - 2016.09.09 03:03:22 -
[41] - Quote
Subscription will basically stand for the monthly rental of a package of unlocks that basically encompass everything we have right now.
Everything new will be monetized. Nothing will be "free". Yes, they will call it "free" if you don't buy it even if you are subscribed.
New T3 frigate? Not included in the "omega package". But you can buy it piecemeal for 500 "CCP coins".
Everything will be sold for prices in multiples of 500 coins, but you can only buy coins in multiples of 499 coins.
Everything we ask from the devs will be monetized: - Want the old camera back? Not included in the omega package, 1500 coins, please. - Locator agents telling if someone is offline or online? 500 coins per week. - Want to see local in your wormhole? 5000 coins per month. - Want to block afk cloaking in your nullbear system? 50000 coins per month.
There's no limit to what can be monetized in F2P game. Even if you subscribe, don't be entitled to any of it. |
Toobo
Project Fruit House Solyaris Chtonium
141
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Posted - 2016.09.09 03:17:16 -
[42] - Quote
Adhara, nothing makes me think they will restrict it to Alpha toons only for long term. And yes, I can also foresee that kind of posts coming. But I would imagine these things will come gradually into EVE, so maybe start with Alpha as specific target customers, then expand onto other things eventually. As long as CCP sticks to the principle that everything can be bought with ISK on market, and that ISK is made from in-game activities, there is room for integrating microtransactions.
I think we could have golden ammo eventually, with option to buy it in cash or in ISK.
You could say that EVE already accomodates for this. Anyone can buy PLEX and sell for ISK and everyhing can be bought with ISK.
Toobo is a lucky talisman. Try Toobo's lucky referral link at the awesome iwantisk website and have a great time
http://www.iwantisk.com/?ref=1216023697
Remeber - you win by luck and lose by luck. Don't go crazy. ;)
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Ze Chelien
The Ore Hogs Intergalactic Research Foundation
0
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Posted - 2016.10.31 12:48:23 -
[43] - Quote
Princess Adhara wrote:
If they go the way of microtransactions, what makes you think they will restrict them to alpha clones? Other games with a freemium model don't.
Soon new skills/ships/structures will require EVERYONE (omega clones included) to buy an unlock via microtransaction. Then we'll see lots of forum threads like:
PLAYER 1: w00t? Greedy developer, I already pay my subscription! PLAYER 2: Your subscription only pay for server maintenance, electric bill etc. You have to pay for NEW CONTENT like everyone else! PLAYER 1: But I never had to! Expansions should be free for subscribers! PLAYER 2: Don't be an entitled kid, you shouldn't expect things FOR FREE! Developers have to eat, too! ....
The only way CCP might even think of doing that is if they lose a lot of subscribers because they switch to F2P but even then they might just say if you want this expansion pay $4.99 or pay for subscription and get it "free" (free meaning you don't pay for the expansion out right but rather just the subscription cost.)
Also, if anything server costs doesn't cost $10/$15 a month per player but the alpha players won't be paying for their share of server cost so, the money the omegas are paying to contribute to their content and server cost have to be shared with the alpha clones. Therefore if CCP doesn't get a lot of subscribers from this you might be right because the subscription cost that you pay to play and have more content is being redirected to alpha clones instead of new content. |
General Muller
RpG-CONVICTS-FEDERATION
2
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Posted - 2016.11.01 10:04:11 -
[44] - Quote
Ze Chelien wrote: The only way CCP might even think of doing that is if they lose a lot of subscribers because they switch to F2P but even then they might just say if you want this expansion pay $4.99 or pay for subscription and get it "free" (free meaning you don't pay for the expansion out right but rather just the subscription cost.)
Also, if anything server costs doesn't cost $10/$15 a month per player but the alpha players won't be paying for their share of server cost so, the money the omegas are paying to contribute to their content and server cost have to be shared with the alpha clones. Therefore if CCP doesn't get a lot of subscribers from this you might be right because the subscription cost that you pay to play and have more content is being redirected to alpha clones instead of new content.
Also, I know this is an old topic but I wanna spark the conversation again :)
Alpha players will be subscribing and buying plex to unrestrict their accounts.
The amount of Alpha players however won't "double" the game's player base.
Guild Wars 2 for instance had far less new players when the game went free-to-play compared to old buy players who have left the game and after the first financial quarterly report following the first expansion release only about 1 million out of total 10 million accounts upgraded.
Only a small portion of Alpha players who give EVE a try for the first time will stick around, because as a reasonably new player and fairly experienced gamer I can tell you the learning curve and level of entry due to time gated skill training is ****!
The greatest factor hampering CCP right now are veteran players who probably make out the majority of the player base and don't pay because of already having all the necessary skills leveled to make easy ISK to buy plex with.
EVE needs the veterans to keep the game active and the veterans need new players to feed them plex for game time.
As with Guild Wars 2, everyone who wanted to try the game and check it out have pretty much already done so, so finding new players is becoming a lot more tricky and the number of annual adolescent people aren't enough to rely on.
For CCP to keep their revenue stream healthy they need to adopt an approach to convince former players to return to the game. "Doing new things" is all part of that and riding the fascination and nostalgia wave has a lot to do with it, because these people either have to subscribe or buy plex. |
Captain Tardbar
Sunken Ships
1161
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Posted - 2016.11.02 14:36:59 -
[45] - Quote
I'm on the fence.
I don't way to pay sub anymore even though that restricts a lot ships and skills.
That said, if I choose to PVP those ships are mostly cruiser and below anyways.
Which leads me to the question, would buying PLEX be viable for F2P players?
If they let you buy ships bigger than a cruiser than I would say the need for selling PLEX for ISK would be there.
Even if I was in FW, I doubt I would go through 1 billion isk worth of ships per month.
It might be something every 6 months or so.
Still that's something for CCP.
"Entitlement" is a euphemism for "I hate the way you play and it makes me cry like a baby".
If you fantasize about being immoral it means you enjoy being immoral deep down.
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motie one
Secret Passage
124
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Posted - 2016.11.04 22:17:44 -
[46] - Quote
Overall, in the early stages the effect of alpha clones will be a wash. Plex may go up or down slightly, some will pay to get some starting isk, and some will grind to become omega.
As time passes however the wash so to speak becomes less balanced and players may become more extreme in their behaviour. For the first six months the purchase of choice will be skill injectors, probably funded fby buying plex and selling. Beyond that, It is not possible to predict at this time.
However, CCP are reducing skin prices massively in ascention, so that will soak up a fair bit of that extra alpha isk, and encourage plex purchases to buy isk.
Alphas aside, the new structures will soak up a lot of alliance isk stockpiles and increase the sale pressure on Plex and reduce demand as a safe haven, the uncertainties of the new mechanics of player grades will also reduce the security of plex as a safe asset as well.
When Beta, Gamma, delta, epsilon clone grades arrive, plex may appear to be as desireable a safe haven as cowrie shells, the economy will be turned into a completely different mechanic. The old "sure thing" will not be and a great diversification of stored wealth will occur.
So TLDR, The free lunch is no longer a sure thing, hedge your risk. |
Cista2
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
277
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Posted - 2016.11.25 07:20:29 -
[47] - Quote
Yes yes, so far PLEX have reach a six-month low. I pity those who bought heavily into PLEX at 1200 based on advise such as given in this thread :) Time for some comments?
My channel: "Signatures"
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erg cz
Eleutherian Guard Villore Accords
530
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Posted - 2016.11.25 08:38:50 -
[48] - Quote
Cista2 wrote:Yes yes, so far PLEX have reach a six-month low. I pity those who bought heavily into PLEX at 1200 based on advise such as given in this thread :) Time for some comments?
I did not bought a single PLEX over 1 b (yet ;) ) but it seems to me, that current PLEX price drop related to new toys ppl buy right now. All those Raitaru, excavator drones etc... As soon, as new toys will not be that new any more, price will get back to 1,2 b, IMHO.
Absolutely free trial extension. Just click the link and get extra 250 000 SP for free!
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u3pog
Caldari Provisions Caldari State
785
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Posted - 2016.11.25 22:20:07 -
[49] - Quote
I expected a Black Friday at some point and here we go. PLEX is going down the roller coaster. I wonder how long will that ride be... |
Clair Bear
Ursine Research and Production
9
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Posted - 2016.11.27 08:10:48 -
[50] - Quote
Plex drop so far looks 100% related to the Black Friday sale. And, both the sale and the drop appear over.
The training time for new alphas is brutal. It's going to take many, many days for them to do anything useful. They're not going to stick around OR buy skins for their crappy starter ships. OTOH, the same amount of time means "free" SP farmer accounts won't be showing up for 5 more months.
So far I've seen a ton of bittervets (like me) returning to ship spin and chat. A few are PLEXing up, others like me are perfectly content to be alphas (even if the 100M or so more a day I spend on bonus transaction taxes means not plexing is a lose).
There's little demand for new players to buy skill injectors for hogtied alpha clones, and absolutely nothing to spend microtransaction (if you can call $20 a microtransaction) money on. Newbies don't know about meta4 or faction gear, and earing miserable level1 mission money can't see the ROI of spending big.
OTOH, plenty of old crappy characters can now be logged on for free and melted down into valuable skill injectors. I'm shocked skill injectors aren't plummeting while extractors and PLEX aren't rocketing up; but give it another month.
I concur with a price target of over 2 billion "long term", subject to other changes by CPP of course.
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Sabriz Adoudel
Move along there is nothing here
5935
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Posted - 2016.11.27 21:14:08 -
[51] - Quote
Princess Adhara wrote:Subscription will basically stand for the monthly rental of a package of unlocks that basically encompass everything we have right now.
Everything new will be monetized. Nothing will be "free". Yes, they will call it "free" if you don't buy it even if you are subscribed.
New T3 frigate? Not included in the "omega package". But you can buy it piecemeal for 500 "CCP coins".
Everything will be sold for prices in multiples of 500 coins, but you can only buy coins in multiples of 499 coins.
Everything we ask from the devs will be monetized: - Want the old camera back? Not included in the omega package, 1500 coins, please. - Locator agents telling if someone is offline or online? 500 coins per week. - Want to see local in your wormhole? 5000 coins per month. - Want to block afk cloaking in your nullbear system? 50000 coins per month.
There's no limit to what can be monetized in F2P game. Even if you subscribe, don't be entitled to any of it.
If EVE goes to that level of paid cheating, I will liquidate all of my assets, sell my characters, and give the ISK to the New Order.
I support the New Order and CODE. alliance. www.minerbumping.com
Sabriz's Rule: "Any time someone argues for a game change claiming it is a quality of life change, the change is actually a game balance change".
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Bad Bobby
Bring Me Sunshine In Tea We Trust
1595
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Posted - 2016.11.28 04:39:10 -
[52] - Quote
Clair Bear wrote:I'm shocked skill injectors aren't plummeting Their traded volume is up and it's mostly going to sells, so it would appear they are in demand for someone.
I personally sold off 200B worth of injectors during the market peak ~28 days ago and they flew out of the door then too.
Clair Bear wrote:PLEX aren't rocketing up; but give it another month. I'm expecting it to saunter downwards during the next couple of months, but it really does depend so much on CCP's behaviour that I wouldn't make any strong bet on it. I sold off my stockpile of ~500 PLEX at 1.2B at the same time as I dropped my injectors, now I've picked up another 100 PLEX at the recent minimum (~980m) and I'm holding off on buying more on the chance that I'm right, CCP performs as I expect and the PLEX price slumps down to ~900m over the winter.
Clair Bear wrote:I concur with a price target of over 2 billion "long term", subject to other changes by CPP of course. Long term maybe, but I'm expecting the usual wave before that and no 2B pricetag until summer, maybe not even this summer.
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Toobo
Project Fruit House Solyaris Chtonium
320
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Posted - 2016.12.02 02:29:56 -
[53] - Quote
What Bad Bobby said is pretty much what I have been thinking and been saying here too regarding PLEX prices. I also did pick up a lot of PLEX when they crashed earlier this year after Citadel patch (many bought at even below 900m mark at that point outside of Jita), and I sold them at around 1.1b mark later, and then they crashed again when CCP did crazy good sale on PLEX with discount PLUS extra PLEX (I think it was early summer or just before that). Then PLEX crashed again and went up to again, only to drop a bit again later, etc.
Through these cycles and 'new' PLEX prices we have been seeing, and with the changes CCP have been talking about, I imagined PLEX will drop to around 900m mark again over the winter. They could reach 2b 'long term', but anything could double its value over 'long term' depending on your definition of 'long term' and such.
PLEX is a bit different though, and when you look at the market history it does get affected very heavily by CCP's PLEX sales/discounts/etc. It's not purely player driven prices based on 'in-game factors', because CCP doing discounts on them have big impact on their prices, which is an out of game factor and totally out of player control.
I could have held on to the cheap PLEXes I bought earlier in the year, and maybe they hit 2b mark some day, but I just didn't feel that it was worth it to keep too much ISK tied up to PLEX for such long term. Theoretically, if you make 20% profit on 100b principle every month, you only need 5 months to 'double' your 100b and reach 200b mark (well very simplistically speaking). PLEX ain't gonna 'double' its value in 5 months time. If I have to keep them for 1 year+ I think there are other things I can flip which will generate more ISK than PLEX doubling.
But of course, if you already have many other things going on, and if you can get them at below 1b mark or even at around 900m, it's quite alright to keep some quantity as a long term thing. But I would definitely not put majority of my ISK into PLEX and hold for long term. Riding the cycles of PLEX with majority of your ISK is a different story though, as that's not the same as 'holding' them with majority of your ISK.
"When faced with my demons, I clothe them and feed them,
and I smile, yes I smile as they are taking me over" - Strange Glue
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