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Aidan Ryder
Ryder Interstellar Fuel Services
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Posted - 2007.03.19 23:20:00 -
[1]
Anyone have any forecasts as to how much hulks are going to depreciate in value after the patch? For those of you that dont know, hulks we be considered a variant of covetors therefore making them inventable which should increase market supply for them. |
Treelox
Amarr
Frontier Technologies
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Posted - 2007.03.20 00:05:00 -
[2]
I dont think they will depreciate much in the first few days. In a months time I would guess they will be around 150-200mil isk a peace. Thats just my wild guess. Cause with all the changes that are coming in this patch to invention, there are really so many variables to consider.
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FTEK | Production ~ Research ~ Sales ~ Omber Zombie's Wet Work |
Agif
Devine Industries
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Posted - 2007.03.20 04:01:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Agif on 20/03/2007 04:03:11
Edited by: Agif on 20/03/2007 03:57:40
 Originally by: Aidan Ryder
Anyone have any forecasts as to how much hulks are going to depreciate in value after the patch? For those of you that dont know, hulks we be considered a variant of covetors therefore making them inventable which should increase market supply for them.
Doubt theyd go that low. And are skiffs and Mackinaws getting a variant too?
Hacs have been inventable for a while now but we've only seen about a 20% drop on the price of probably the one you'd want to invent when you look at the vaga.
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Ramblin Man
Empyreum
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Posted - 2007.03.20 04:46:00 -
[4]
I'm guessing Hulks are going to be hit fairly hard. Personally, I'd say 100M-150M after the first surge comes to market, and the market restabilizes.
Hulks aren't HACs. HACs are endgame, but not every endgame combat pilot can fly a given HAC. *Every* endgame miner, on the other hand, *will* be able to fly a Hulk.
Since Hulk demand > HAC demand, it stands to reason that people will recognize this and Hulks will prove a fair amount more attractive to invention than HACs of any given type. Of course, I'm not current on the latest odds of ship invention -- which last I heard was pretty dismal -- so take the above with a grain of salt.
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Roemy Schneider
BINFORD
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Posted - 2007.03.20 05:11:00 -
[5]
too many vague info so far: datacores are lowered "dramatically" and "The Hulk is now listed as a variant for T1 mining barges and can be invented as a result."
if ccp are reaaally evil, all 3 exhumers could come from all barges and the hulk might then be hidden in some tiny corner of chance, for example *shrug*
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.03.20 05:56:00 -
[6]
Originally by: Ramblin Man
Since Hulk demand > HAC demand, it stands to reason that people will recognize this and Hulks will prove a fair amount more attractive to invention than HACs of any given type.
One of the key differences in the invention needs of a barge as opposed to the invention needs of a cruiser is: Availability of the BPC. Someone wants to do some invention on a HAC first get a good cruiser bpo to make bpc's. Just a hop around the block to the corner store. Do the same for a barge. Prices will drop but not to the degree that people believe. Barge BPO owners will be making bpc's for their own personal use OR for resale at a newer higher price then previously. Barge invention will not be a common sport for the masses.
The Eve-Online forums may not have invented whining, but they sure have perfected it.
Arknox > shar with bad hair day >>> solution = suicide and spawn fresh clone :D |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
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Posted - 2007.03.20 08:57:00 -
[7]
I've been telling people to expect 200-250m.
Buy TINY. when I'm right.
MP
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TINY. Stage 2 IPO, because good things come in pairs. |
Foxy Cleopatra
Caldari
Deep Core Mining Inc.
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Posted - 2007.03.20 09:48:00 -
[8]
Well I did try Vagabond invention some time back and lost a few billion in the process. Unless CCP has changed the base probability for all SHIP invention, you are looking at a roughly 20% success rate.
Even with datacores dropping, the process will be costly due to the high cost of the decrypters and base items, with datacores around 5 mil each I see actual cost on the invention process around 150mil to 200mil PER SHIP.
Also, lets not forget start up costs, the ship interfaces sell for around 2 bil atm (I know were around 700mil earlier)
The Covetor BPO cost around 2 bil, making a max run copy takes ages (don't now exact figure but if its anything like the cruisers its at least a few days)
So most likely anyone who is going to be serious about Hulk invention will need several prints of the Coventor BPO.
So prolly 6 to 7 bil to set up operation; bottle neck will be the max run BPCs, so I for the time/money you invest for Hulk invention, I would add at least 100mil per ship, so prolly around 250mil to 350mil sell price to RUN a profitable operation.
Also, it will ultimately depend on supply and demand, if Hulks at around 400mil brings in more buyers than producers/inventors, it might very well stay at 400mil forever.
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Robacz
Essence Trade
Essence Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.03.20 10:02:00 -
[9]
I think they will stay around 300M. Since I have no shares to sell, just send me ISK when I am right. 
_________
Buying/Selling: Implants & Hardwirings
Producing/BPCs: Mining Barges, T2 Components
T2 Distribution: 8 regions covered |
David H'Levi
Sniggerdly
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Posted - 2007.03.20 10:54:00 -
[10]
I wouldn't do the predictions based on % drop, I'd do them based on millions over mineral cost. Currently, hulks are about 400m over mineral cost, if I'm not mistaken, whereas vagabonds were much less. After all, net profit is what's important in this case, not percentage profit, since you have expendible resources beyond the materials.
That being said, there are tons of covetor BPCs on the market, and you can always buy them in 10-run and probably 20-run copies in the BP channel, which you can't do with cruiser BPCs. Sure, you can't get the BPOs as easily, but this will probably make it worthwhile to start carting them back from OR, again.
Given both of these things, I'd say expect drops to 100-200m above mineral cost, or 30-70%. That is, of course, assuming all things being equal with the vaga invention process, which it may well not be.
That being said, feel free to quote me on this: Hulk prices are going to fall faster than my sister's pants after a few lines of coke.
As much as you may love me, your signature must pertain to your in-game persona, and thus I must remove it. -Conuion Meow |
Frabba
Freedom Builders Inc.
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Posted - 2007.03.20 12:01:00 -
[11]
I think the magic number will be around 200 mil.
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Snabbik Shigen
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Posted - 2007.03.20 13:17:00 -
[12]
Since they were selling for 425M before today... Wishful thinking says 200M, but probably more likely in the 250-300M range.
Insurance is only a 29M payout for platinum.
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Pale NPastey
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Posted - 2007.03.20 14:06:00 -
[13]
"Do the same for a barge.
Prices will drop but not to the degree that people believe. Barge BPO owners will be making bpc's for their own personal use OR for resale at a newer higher price then previously.
Barge invention will not be a common sport for the masses."
I pulled that from above...obviously. I feel compeled to post on this though I rarely post on the forums. I agree with the above. Everyone is under the impression that hulk invention will be available to the masses now.....it won't. First of all....how many people actually own a covetor bpo? (Other then me *snickers*) Yes they are available through an npc corp and anyone can buy them but even if you know where they are you have to go all the way out to bad bad territory to purchase one at a steep 2b apiece. So they aren't for the masses and won't be. I would assume that Covetor bpc's are going to skyrocket if they haven't already, secondly loads of idiots will attempt the invention without the appropriate skills trained and it won't be the cheapest invention out there. Lastly, the demand for hulks is so and people are willing to pay so much that the people that do manage to pull out successful bpc's (especially in the beginning) are going to try thier hardest to not lower the prices as much as possible. The HAC comparision is a great one....the cruiser bp's are much more accessable and look how little those prices have dropped. I predict there will be an initial rush, with the majority of folks quitting trying the hulk invention due to failed processes and the price will drop minimally. I hate to put a number to it but I'm going with the 400's....which suits me fine.
This won't be a gravy train for everyone.
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Noth Sey
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Posted - 2007.11.13 14:42:00 -
[14]
As of today hulks are going for 120m
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Ricdic's Hoe
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Posted - 2007.11.13 14:46:00 -
[15]
Originally by: Noth Sey
As of today hulks are going for 120m
Thanks for the necro. Now I can sleep easy. When you read the forums, don't start at page 335 please
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Shar Tegral
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Posted - 2007.11.13 14:53:00 -
[16]
Originally by: Ricdic's Hoe
When you read the forums, don't start at page 335 please
QFT
It's A GIRL!!!!! |
Motivated Prophet
Zerodot Schools
Power Corrupts Industry's
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Posted - 2007.11.13 16:21:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Noth Sey
As of today hulks are going for 120m
And the lottery is no longer inflating the price of datacores.
Also, Xetic no longer controls the South.
Now please exit stage left.
MP
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Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression! |
Matsui Hideki
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Posted - 2007.11.13 17:07:00 -
[18]
Originally by: Noth Sey
As of today hulks are going for 120m
Lich King, is that you?
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.13 18:08:00 -
[19]
Originally by: Robacz
I think they will stay around 300M. Since I have no shares to sell, just send me ISK when I am right.
Wow. I sure hope you haven't argued with anyone else about what will happen in the future cause you were WAY off. 
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Robacz
Essence Trade
Essence Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.11.13 22:53:00 -
[20]
Originally by: Shadarle
Originally by: Robacz
I think they will stay around 300M. Since I have no shares to sell, just send me ISK when I am right.
Wow. I sure hope you haven't argued with anyone else about what will happen in the future cause you were WAY off.
The difference between this quote and yours in another thread is in first two words of my quote.  It was my opinion, clearly stated as an opinion and it was obviously wrong.
On my defense, I think it was posted during intention v1, changes that made invention cheaper happed later.
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Robacz
Essence Trade
Essence Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.11.13 23:02:00 -
[21]
Edited by: Robacz on 13/11/2007 23:02:03
double post
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.11.13 23:05:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Robacz
The difference between this quote and yours in another thread is in first two words of my quote - "I think". It was my opinion, clearly posted as an opinion.
Indeed, however, it was not an oversight that I did not include a caveat that it was my opinion.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Benvie
Benvie Enterprises
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Posted - 2007.11.13 23:17:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Motivated Prophet
I've been telling people to expect 200-250m.
Buy TINY. when I'm right.
MP
I think this is the most funny quote in the thread. I doubt I could sell Tinydot shares much above IPO price now, let alone at any decent compounded monthly return rate (5-7%). Maybe that will change in the near future though? =D
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Ezoran DuBlaidd
Rivers Enterprises
Power Corrupts Industry's
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Posted - 2007.11.13 23:48:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Ezoran DuBlaidd on 13/11/2007 23:52:02
edited: this thread delivers~!! 
solid
liquid |
Aidan Ryder
Ryder Interstellar Fuel Services
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Posted - 2007.11.17 01:30:00 -
[25]
Holy crap... how did this thread get revived?
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POS Fueling Service , 9 months running will soon close. |
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