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N'kano Hunyeq
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:12:00 -
[1]
Edited by: N''kano Hunyeq on 26/03/2007 12:10:13
Hulk invention, each job used
max run covetor bpc with high me/pe
stolen formulas decryptor
t1 covetors
2x 5/5/5 skill characters, meaning best possible trained inventors for gallente ship invention.
First character did 8 jobs, 4 of these were successful and produced a hulk bpc. (50% success rate)
Second character did 10 jobs, 1 of these was successful and produced a hulk bpc. (10% success rate)
Both characters had identical skills, gallente encryption methods 5, gallentean starship and mechanical engineering 5.
Possible i know, but this kind of thing happens often.
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Joerd Toastius
Octavian Vanguard
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:15:00 -
[2]
You do understand what "random" means, right?
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N'kano Hunyeq
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:26:00 -
[3]
Edited by: N''kano Hunyeq on 26/03/2007 12:23:32
Just noticed, the character doing 10 jobs was actually doing 11, forgot he was trained to use 11 lab slots, i've been putting in the jobs until no more can be done, lose track of counting, entering invention jobs takes so much time...
So 4 out of 8 jobs success, followed by 1 out of 11 success.
Overall success rate? 25%.
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Marquis Dean
The Last Thing You'll Ever See
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:28:00 -
[4]
Sounds about right. 
---
 Originally by: [email protected]
Trolling
Hi, Marquis Dean
You are receiving this notice in regard to the post below...
So deal with it.  |
Benglada
Infinitus Odium
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:33:00 -
[5]
random has no correlation with percentage :S
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Originally by: Arkanor
0.0 is the Final Frontier. Bring money and friends.
Sig nerfz0r - maximum allowed siz0r is 24000 bytz0r. - Devil ([email protected])
Sig By Ortos |
Olsen'Kra
Minmatar
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:36:00 -
[6]
Yea, that seems about right, according to the many many people doing invention on hulks, it seems the success rate is about 20-30%.
If the success rate on 1 character is 30%, and the success rate on 100 characters is 30%, it stands to reason that the success rate on 2 characters is about 30%.
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Oops, I have posted while undressed again. Silly me. |
Xs 142
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Posted - 2007.03.26 12:56:00 -
[7]
You only remember the failures..
Originally by: Oveur
Eternally yours,
The other dumbass 
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heheheh
Singularity.
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Posted - 2007.03.26 13:03:00 -
[8]
Look up RANDOM in the dictionary,
Working as intended.
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Roy Batty68
Caldari
Immortal Dead
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Posted - 2007.03.26 13:08:00 -
[9]
If you got exactly the same % and results from both, then you might have reason to ask if the random number generator was broke...
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Say What? |
Maam
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Posted - 2007.03.26 13:12:00 -
[10]
If I flip a coin 10 times in a row and get heads each time, what are the odds it will come up tails the 11th time?
(I know!)
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Jarjar
Celestial Apocalypse
Insurgency
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Posted - 2007.03.26 13:32:00 -
[11]
Originally by: Maam
If I flip a coin 10 times in a row and get heads each time, what are the odds it will come up tails the 11th time?
(I know!)
*drumroll* How about 50%?
What are the odds that you will flip 10 heads in a row, given that you have 50% each time?
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Raekone
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Posted - 2007.03.26 13:35:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Jarjar
Originally by: Maam
If I flip a coin 10 times in a row and get heads each time, what are the odds it will come up tails the 11th time?
(I know!)
*drumroll* How about 50%?
What are the odds that you will flip 10 heads in a row, given that you have 50% each time?
(1/2)^10 :p
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Ortu Konsinni
KIA Corp
KIA Alliance
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Posted - 2007.03.26 13:38:00 -
[13]
Seems to me like you were just unlucky.
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High quality pics of ALL EVE ships!
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Jarjar
Celestial Apocalypse
Insurgency
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Posted - 2007.03.26 14:06:00 -
[14]
Originally by: Raekone
Originally by: Jarjar
Originally by: Maam
If I flip a coin 10 times in a row and get heads each time, what are the odds it will come up tails the 11th time?
(I know!)
*drumroll* How about 50%?
What are the odds that you will flip 10 heads in a row, given that you have 50% each time?
(1/2)^10 :p
I forgot to add the "(I know!)"
My point is, with a 50% change every time having a success rate of 9.1% is unlikely. 
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Spaceman Jack
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Posted - 2007.03.26 14:34:00 -
[15]
Sounds random to me
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emepror
Gallente
Magners Marauders
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Posted - 2007.03.26 15:00:00 -
[16]
how much for a BPC?
i really want a hulk
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Maze La'Zie
Caldari
Technology La'Zie
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Posted - 2007.03.26 15:58:00 -
[17]
To the OP:
I would not be concerned - the number of jobs you have run is too small to suggest anything is wrong.
If you run 100 jobs on each character and the percentages are still the same, then it might start to look interesting.
___________________
Chief Scientific Officer
Technology La'Zie
Author of The End |
Randolf Sightblinder
Ex Coelis
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Posted - 2007.03.26 16:32:00 -
[18]
Lets fix some of the comments here shall we?
If I flip a coin 10 times and get 10 heads, the chance for tails on 11 is still 50% The chance doesn't change but the odds do I think it would be 1/11 here.
Also the percentage should approach the chance as the sample size grows.
Right now it looks like the chance is nearing 25%. I think 19 might be a bit of a small sample size, give us a call back at 100 and lets see what happens.
Randolf
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prsr
Gallente
JuBa Corp
Lotka Volterra
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Posted - 2007.03.26 16:38:00 -
[19]
Also, remember you need a decent sample size too if you want to evaluate the chance of success. Personally I'd guess that you need at least 30 or so attempts to get a significant resultset.
--
.sig apathy ftw |
Humpalot
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Posted - 2007.03.26 16:48:00 -
[20]
I don't know why but for some reason the random number generators in games seems to be streaky. That is, you seem to get a run of good luck or bad luck which is pretty much what the OP described. Of course overall the random number generator produces the odds it is meant to. If it is set for a 50/50 chance then 10 "heads" in a row followed by 10 "tails" in a row is right on the money.
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Szprinkoth Sponsz
Chaos Reborn
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Posted - 2007.03.26 16:59:00 -
[21]
Is this a Magic Online shuffler whine thread?
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N'kano Hunyeq
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Posted - 2007.03.26 17:01:00 -
[22]
Edited by: N''kano Hunyeq on 26/03/2007 16:57:38
Originally by: Szprinkoth Sponsz
Is this a Magic Online shuffler whine thread?
No, this is the "i'm making 5 billion isk a day inventing hulks thread" Thank you and goodbye.
To all the others, i've done 100 jobs, success rate is around 25% overall.
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heheheh
Singularity.
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Posted - 2007.03.27 16:41:00 -
[23]
Originally by: Humpalot
I don't know why but for some reason the random number generators in games seems to be streaky. That is, you seem to get a run of good luck or bad luck which is pretty much what the OP described. Of course overall the random number generator produces the odds it is meant to. If it is set for a 50/50 chance then 10 "heads" in a row followed by 10 "tails" in a row is right on the money.
I know what you mean, although still random, the same thing tends to happen more than you'd have thought it would.
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Anthal
Order's Chaos
FREGE Alliance
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Posted - 2007.03.27 16:56:00 -
[24]
Edited by: Anthal on 27/03/2007 16:52:26
I could go into a huge post about how a computer generated random number isn't actually random, but most people would get bored. Essentially the randomness is based off of a seed which produces a string of seemingly random numbers (which, in fact, it isn't).
Blah blah blah, read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudo-random_number_generator
Your sample size was too small. 19 tries is a start, but I'd look at numbers approaching 100 before I got concerned or even bothered to look at my results. Even then, if you only managed to get 1 hulk BPC from that, it could just be bad "luck" and not something broken. It's improbable, but still possible.
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Joerd Toastius
Octavian Vanguard
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Posted - 2007.03.27 19:42:00 -
[25]
Originally by: Humpalot
I don't know why but for some reason the random number generators in games seems to be streaky. That is, you seem to get a run of good luck or bad luck which is pretty much what the OP described. Of course overall the random number generator produces the odds it is meant to. If it is set for a 50/50 chance then 10 "heads" in a row followed by 10 "tails" in a row is right on the money.
More likely it's just that you only notice when it's streaky. How many times have you thought "oh, worked on the third attempt, exactly what I'd expect, it must be working perfectly"? The human mind picks up patterns, so you notice the occasional time when the numbers form a pattern (streak of result) and discard all the times it worked randomly.
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Humpalot
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Posted - 2007.03.27 19:50:00 -
[26]
Originally by: Joerd Toastius
Originally by: Humpalot
I don't know why but for some reason the random number generators in games seems to be streaky. That is, you seem to get a run of good luck or bad luck which is pretty much what the OP described. Of course overall the random number generator produces the odds it is meant to. If it is set for a 50/50 chance then 10 "heads" in a row followed by 10 "tails" in a row is right on the money.
More likely it's just that you only notice when it's streaky. How many times have you thought "oh, worked on the third attempt, exactly what I'd expect, it must be working perfectly"? The human mind picks up patterns, so you notice the occasional time when the numbers form a pattern (streak of result) and discard all the times it worked randomly.
Not so sure as I have seen this time and again. I slummed in WOW for awhile (I know, I know but I gave it up) and as people would "/roll 100" (I think that was the command for a random number from 1-100 in there) people would see bad or good streaks all the time. Very often one guy would get the majority of loot from the raid. This was so noticeable to so many people that it was frequently a topic brought up on the forums. A common answer would be it just appeared that way so people would pay close attention and it looked wrong somehow.
The Devs even looked in to it a few times and pronounced the random number generator to be working fine although I wonder if they looked for streaks. I am sure the random number generator was random on a very large sample of numbers but like I said if I flipped a coin 1000 times and every ten it came up heads and the next ten tails (and so on) I wouldn't call that terribly random even if I am hitting my 50/50 mark overall.
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Joerd Toastius
Octavian Vanguard
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Posted - 2007.03.27 20:18:00 -
[27]
Seen it time and time again, or noticed it time and time again?
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Humpalot
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Posted - 2007.03.27 20:56:00 -
[28]
Originally by: Joerd Toastius
Seen it time and time again, or noticed it time and time again?
???
Not sure of the distinction you are trying to draw.
In WOW myself and many others saw this happen many times where one guy would have a lucky streak and walk away with most of the loot from that particular outting. It wasn't an "impression" after the fact. It was a confirmed deal that Person-Y walked off with 95% of the good loot and it was a repeatable occurrence. This was remarked on by many people on the forums and seemed a common experience rather than a sometime thing. Of course who was "lucky" that day seemed random
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Joerd Toastius
Octavian Vanguard
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Posted - 2007.03.27 22:59:00 -
[29]
My point is that every time you see something wierd, like a "streak", or one guy making most of the loot, you'll remember it. But you won't remember the other times when it worked normally nearly as vividly, because there was nothing special about it. If it happened say once a month then you'll remember that it happened fairly regularly. However, you need to compare it to all the times when someone didn't get a streak to see if there's an actual statistical problem, or if it's just behaving as expected and throwing out a streak occasionally as the game logic does its work.
I'm not saying it didn't actually happen, I'm just saying your perception of how often it happened, relative to the number of times it didn't happen, may be skewed because of the way the human mind remembers stuff.
And frankly, I'd be worried if you didn't get streaks occasionally, as that would suggest that something in the code was forcibly preventing them, which would make the process less random.
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