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Where will Hulk prices settle with the onset of invention?

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Kazuo Ishiguro	Posted - 2007.03.29 21:54:00 - [1] Although some people have recently cast doubts on whether this would even happen, it is no longer deniable that Hulk prices are falling fast; so far, prices are down by 100-200m and show no sign of stopping. This is not a mere seasonal variation I think we are past the tipping point, beyond which it is no longer viable for people to buy up every hulk on the market for ~420m. The buyers have been in retreat for quite a few days now. I am not familiar enough with the invention process to estimate the costs involved in Hulk production sans BPO, so I hope someone will be kind enough to give us all a rough idea of the figures involved. I'm only interested in the cost of the decryptors and other consumables, not the data interfaces or any other assets. From what I've read elsewhere, I suspect prices will settle at 100-200m, but that's just off the top of my head, and I'd really like to see a few detailed estimates from people who have actually tried this (or at least done their research). ------ Top speed calculation spreadsheet - updated for the recent speed nerf :) Army of doom headcount: 26,045
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.03.30 01:41:00 - [2] They will drop closer to actual production costs obviously. There really is no way to know just how low prices will go currently... but it seems all t2 items are in free-fall, which is nice imo. I will be happy to snatch up a few handy BPO's once prices hit rock bottom. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Ramblin Man Empyreum	Posted - 2007.03.30 06:58:00 - [3] Hulks and Invention [p.5] I don't think anyone actually spent any time finding a concrete basis for their numbers, though. Nor have I been in the SSO forum recently enough to see if someone has reworked the stuff with all the changes that have happened since Invention was first patched in. Last I commented though, datacores were a ***** to value, because there's probably at least ten different ways you can look at it (free market, sustainability, full exploitation, etc. etc.). ++ Insightful on the freefall comment though, as it got me thinking. I think what we're in actuality going to see will be the freefall of "flavor of the month" items. From an Inventor's perspective, he wants to get in an uninvented market, sell off all his goods as quickly as possible, and make his profit. Therefore, he really has utterly no concern about maintaining any given price level -- as it's doubtful he'll make a living out of inventing this single item (a la the T2 BPO owners). Now multiple that by 100 (200, 500?) people doing invention, and I think they are just going to crash item after item and then move on. It'll be interesting to see how this whole cycle plays out in the long term (i.e. after the Hulk price has decreased enough that inventors move on).
Roemy Schneider BINFORD	Posted - 2007.03.30 07:30:00 - [4] well... converted into current market values... datacore gal ship: 1mil (where i am now) x8 datacore mech eng: 5mil x8 covetor bpc: 10mil per run - (either the inventors sucked that market dry or my one-minute-search didn't yield enough o_O - usually they're 5mil/run) stolen formula (decryptor) ehhh n/a where i am right now... appearantly, inventors went berserk here aswell and they're at 100mil? humm sry... only a rough estimate here - don't quote me on these numbers ^^ but you get the dimensions ^^ so lets round it up a lil to 160mil per _invention_ job. some guy in general discussion complained that his attempts succeeded, like, only 10% of the time - with all three involved skills at V (total of 15 ranks). sooo for 10 attempts, you'll have blown 1600mil, hopefully gotten 1x 5runBPC with ME -4 (not sure on these numbers in 1.4 - the complaining guy didn't post any details about the bpc themselves) building one hulk costs about 45mil (negative ME is evil) thats when you blew out more than 1.8bil on 5 hulks - 390mil uhm... not exactly el dorado granted, these numbers arent totally accurate but you wanted an outline ^^ sry if i made it look like skywriting in an A380 -.- btw, the demand for hulk invention related items is through the roof (especially decryptors), so i wouldnt say it'll always be like this: more and more people pick up mechanical engineering r&d, exploration is gaining popularity etc.
Akita T Caldari Caldari Navy Volunteer Task Force	Posted - 2007.03.30 08:35:00 - [5] Well, hulk BPO owners can still make'em at well under 40 mil. Inventors need over 50 mil plus invention-related costs, which would probably stabilize at about 150 mil per run or so. Inventors need to sell well above 200 mil to make a minimal profit, so most likely they won't be selling below that given the time and effort needed. At the same price, BPO owners make over 400% markup... so no reason they shouldn't just churn out hulks as usual. And then resellers chime in, and probably prices will stabilize around 250-300 mil per Hulk. Still a lot better as the previous 550 mil or so, and with a much larger number of units on the market. _ MySkills \| Module/Rig stacknerfing explained
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.03.30 16:23:00 - [6] I didn't realize they only cost 50 mil to produce... my god, what a markup there has been. It's about time these money press T2 BPO's are coming down in value imo. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Llaurel Vieta Caldari Double Helix Research and Assembly	Posted - 2007.03.31 00:19:00 - [7] I think prices for hulks are going to begin stabilizing and possibly start going back up. I'll give my opinion as to why I believe this. The prices on Hulks started dropping even before it was theoretically possible for an invented hulk to have been put on the market. Many owners of hulks wanted to sell theirs while the price was still high with plans to repurchase later at a lower price. This caused a lot of undercutting and increased supply right off the bat. Datacore prices are creeping back up. Immediately after the patch you could get mech engineering datacores for 1-2million, they are returning to around 4.5-5million. You can still get them for a lower price but it takes patience and a lot of constant order management. The best decrypter only drops in one location out of 4 cans, these cans are camped quite often by the same people. Prices have risen on them up to 185 million. A lot of initial inventors are no longer attempting hulks. They may have had some initial success but not enough to keep them trying. I know some are working on getting their skills to higher levels and hoping CCP will do something about the Stolen Formulas decypter before trying again. Most of the people that will be left inventing are those that prepared in advance and saved up materials, these people aren't idiots and won't be dropping prices by a large margin. Of course, I could be wrong. I'll give you an idea of what it currently costs to invent a Hulk. These are just approximations. 1-run bpc 5m Covetor 25m Stolen Formula 185m 8 GSE datacores 8m 8 Mech Eng datacores 40m 273 million per attempt The talk on the forums seems to suggest you can expect 20-30% success. One extremely unlucky person went 2 for 20 with max skills. So lets say you make 10 attempts and we'll be generous and give you 3 succesful jobs with 4 runs each. 10 attempts = 2.73billion production costs on 12 hulks 600m total = 3.33billion or 277 million per hulk If you get the more likely 2 successes or a depressing one, the price per hulk increases dramatically to the point where you will not make any profit. On the other hand you can use a max run bpc if you have contacts or can find them. This will give you an extra run per succesful job and add 500m+ to your 10 attempts. You can also use symbiotic figures. This yields a 9 or 10 run bpc depending on the runs of your bpc. Using a 1 run bpc you can make ten attempts for less than 800m. Problem is you may not get a single success. Other decypters will give 1 or 2 runs and differing levels of success. I don't have any experience with them so I won't comment on them. Anyway, this is just my opinion based on my experiences and what I've read or been told by others. If your experience differs, please share.
Roemy Schneider BINFORD	Posted - 2007.03.31 08:27:00 - [8] as you can see; 2 only slightly different analysis can gain quite a distance when it comes to the success rate. ^^ and we're back to the infamous luck component. so... it's all about decryptors right now. thus far we can only assume a price between 300-400mil.
Ariel Dawn SniggWaffe Pandemic Legion	Posted - 2007.03.31 15:54:00 - [9] Edited by: Ariel Dawn on 31/03/2007 15:50:56 Originally by: Llaurel Vieta I'll give you an idea of what it currently costs to invent a Hulk. These are just approximations. 1-run bpc 5m Covetor 25m Stolen Formula 185m 8 GSE datacores 8m 8 Mech Eng datacores 40m 273 million per attempt They'll get tons cheaper once people realize that NOT using Stolen Formulas and instead running THREE SEPERATE invention runs for the same cost using the cheap decryptors gives you a higher chance of success collectively and can net you 2x the runs as you would normally get using Stolen Formulas. Im very surprised that people actually use Stolen Formulas at their current prices.
Motivated Prophet Zerodot Schools Power Corrupts Industry's	Posted - 2007.03.31 17:33:00 - [10] Edited by: Motivated Prophet on 31/03/2007 17:29:14 grammar fixed Originally by: Ariel Dawn Edited by: Ariel Dawn on 31/03/2007 15:50:56 Originally by: Llaurel Vieta I'll give you an idea of what it currently costs to invent a Hulk. These are just approximations. 1-run bpc 5m Covetor 25m Stolen Formula 185m 8 GSE datacores 8m 8 Mech Eng datacores 40m 273 million per attempt They'll get tons cheaper once people realize that NOT using Stolen Formulas and instead running THREE SEPERATE invention runs for the same cost using the cheap decryptors gives you a higher chance of success collectively and can net you 2x the runs as you would normally get using Stolen Formulas. Im very surprised that people actually use Stolen Formulas at their current prices. There are a startling number of what I'll charitably call "dilettante" (the word I want to use is "stupid") inventors in the market right now. Barring significant changes to the Invention process, I'm sticking with my 200-250m estimate that I made in the thread Ramblin Man linked. MP -- TINY. Stage 2 IPO, because good things come in pairs.
Llaurel Vieta Caldari Double Helix Research and Assembly	Posted - 2007.03.31 19:28:00 - [11] Originally by: Ariel Dawn They'll get tons cheaper once people realize that NOT using Stolen Formulas and instead running THREE SEPERATE invention runs for the same cost using the cheap decryptors gives you a higher chance of success collectively and can net you 2x the runs as you would normally get using Stolen Formulas. Im very surprised that people actually use Stolen Formulas at their current prices. This is why I am glad I picked up a few before the patch.
Logos Lt50	Posted - 2007.10.15 03:40:00 - [12] so im wondering what complexes decrypters drop in? anyone know?
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2007.10.15 04:47:00 - [13] Originally by: Logos Lt50 so im wondering what complexes decrypters drop in? anyone know? Did you need to bump an 8 month old thread to ask a completely unrelated question? Need Empire Research Slots. Click here
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.10.15 06:43:00 - [14] Actually the bumping of this thread is quite handy. It shows how badly a lot of the market "elders" speculate on future prices. MP, Akita, Llaurel, and Roemy were a bit too caught up in groupthink of the 200-300+ range. Clearly they were all far off. I think this is a good example of T2 BS price speculation being wrong as well. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2007.10.15 06:51:00 - [15] Originally by: Shadarle I think this is a good example of T2 BS price speculation being wrong as well. Yeh but the guy who bumped it seems to have been talking about something else... Need Empire Research Slots. Click here
Benvie Benvie Enterprises	Posted - 2007.10.15 06:56:00 - [16] Originally by: Shadarle Actually the bumping of this thread is quite handy. It shows how badly a lot of the market "elders" speculate on future prices. MP, Akita, Llaurel, and Roemy were a bit too caught up in groupthink of the 200-300+ range. Clearly they were all far off. I think this is a good example of T2 BS price speculation being wrong as well. The estimates were correct for the prices of datacores and decryptors at the time. This was before the RP to datacore rate was changed no?
Mangold Freelance Unincorporated Ushra'Khan	Posted - 2007.10.15 07:11:00 - [17] How much is a Hulk on the market today?
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.10.15 07:20:00 - [18] Originally by: Benvie Originally by: Shadarle Actually the bumping of this thread is quite handy. It shows how badly a lot of the market "elders" speculate on future prices. MP, Akita, Llaurel, and Roemy were a bit too caught up in groupthink of the 200-300+ range. Clearly they were all far off. I think this is a good example of T2 BS price speculation being wrong as well. The estimates were correct for the prices of datacores and decryptors at the time. This was before the RP to datacore rate was changed no? Which is exactly the point. You can't base prices on future invention on prices now. Prices change when demand changes. Plus you can never expect CCP to not change a thing. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Benvie Benvie Enterprises	Posted - 2007.10.15 07:31:00 - [19] Originally by: Shadarle Which is exactly the point. You can't base prices on future invention on prices now. Prices change when demand changes. Plus you can never expect CCP to not change a thing. Oh I agree. I'm not going forward with any assumption on the prices of the new tech 2 ships. About my only assumption is that, as long as they are in high enough demand, they will be profitable to make no matter what the cost of datacores and decryptors is.
Shinhan Phoenix Knights Dark Nebula Galactic Empire	Posted - 2007.10.15 07:57:00 - [20] Originally by: Mangold How much is a Hulk on the market today? About 100 mil. Check http://eve-central.com/home/ when its back up. -- Selling apples, 1 signature each. ѼѼѼѼѼѼѼ
Robacz Essence Trade Essence Enterprises	Posted - 2007.10.15 10:28:00 - [21] Originally by: Shinhan Originally by: Mangold How much is a Hulk on the market today? About 100 mil. Hulk sell price is 120-130 in most regions.
Mashie Saldana Minmatar Hooligans Of War Insurgency	Posted - 2007.10.15 10:54:00 - [22] Originally by: Robacz Originally by: Shinhan Originally by: Mangold How much is a Hulk on the market today? About 100 mil. Hulk sell price is 120-130 in most regions. Yes but if you put in a 100mill buy order it won't take long to be filled. Jita fix: The distributed market hub
Minerva Vulcan Caldari The Nexus Foundation	Posted - 2007.10.15 11:31:00 - [23] Having an alt less than a week from being Hulk-capable, the lower they go the better I say.
Motivated Prophet Zerodot Schools Power Corrupts Industry's	Posted - 2007.10.15 14:26:00 - [24] Originally by: Shadarle Actually the bumping of this thread is quite handy. It shows how badly a lot of the market "elders" speculate on future prices. MP, Akita, Llaurel, and Roemy were a bit too caught up in groupthink of the 200-300+ range. Clearly they were all far off. I think this is a good example of T2 BS price speculation being wrong as well. Actually, no. I was correct; they sat at approximately 200-250m until the BPO lottery ended. Though I didn't say it in the thread RM linked, you can tell there are other threads where I initially made the prediction, along with its full complement of caveats, thus the "I've been saying". As to datacore cost, these comments were made after the announcement of lower datacore prices, at least, though I'm not sure if the lower price was implemented at the time. Take a look at the price history graph for Hulks. There was a significant plateau that lasted for about a month just below 200m, and I know that for several weeks, the lowest price in Jita was being kept at 199,999,999.99 isk. I felt pretty vindicated by that. MP -- Proud steward of 47 billion isk in public money, and counting. Ask me about mineral compression!
Ricdic Caldari Corporate Research And Production Pty Ltd Zzz	Posted - 2007.10.15 14:34:00 - [25] No-one who speculated in the old days should feel the need to come here and defend themselves. It is after all speculation and CCP have the ability to change any variable to make any belief invalid. I did read back on old replies and both cases were speculated and both were lined with "I believe" or "I think". Need Empire Research Slots. Click here
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.10.15 18:23:00 - [26] Originally by: Motivated Prophet Take a look at the price history graph for Hulks. There was a significant plateau that lasted for about a month just below 200m, and I know that for several weeks, the lowest price in Jita was being kept at 199,999,999.99 isk. I felt pretty vindicated by that. Perhaps in Jita the price plateau'd for a bit, but this was due more to speculation than real values. In other regions the price did not plateau for very long at all. Two weeks at most. And again, the reason it did so was because everyone on the forums said prices would stabilize there... so people were buying and selling around this assumption. Once demand got too strong prices dropped very quickly due to a false plateau. I'm not saying people have to defend their guesses. I'm saying people should take current guesses about T2 BS's with a grain of salt. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Shadarle	Posted - 2007.10.15 18:24:00 - [27] Originally by: Mashie Saldana Originally by: Robacz Originally by: Shinhan Originally by: Mangold How much is a Hulk on the market today? About 100 mil. Hulk sell price is 120-130 in most regions. Yes but if you put in a 100mill buy order it won't take long to be filled. I should note here that Hulk Prices are starting to rise again. As will most items impacted by invention. Prices will go up drastically on some items when Rev3 hits. Tanking Setups Compared Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained
Logos Lt50	Posted - 2007.10.15 19:41:00 - [28] Originally by: Ricdic Originally by: Logos Lt50 so im wondering what complexes decrypters drop in? anyone know? Did you need to bump an 8 month old thread to ask a completely unrelated question? quite obviously i did, because i can't find info on them anywhere else. and i notice that the question is still unanswered.
Shar Tegral	Posted - 2007.10.15 20:06:00 - [29] Originally by: Logos Lt50 quite obviously i did, because i can't find info on them anywhere else. and i notice that the question is still unanswered. Well than quite obviously you failed at asking the right question in the right place. I.e. Make a thread of your own asking a question. Don't necro a thread, ask a woefully incomplete question, and then act slightly offended that you did not get an answer. Market Forum Rule #1 - No one here is obligated to give you a damn thing. So I reiterate, want an answer, ask a fully formed question in your own thread. At least you'll have a chance. (PS: Of course now that I've told you this someone will answer just to prove me wrong but ... ... meh.) It's A GIRL!!!!!
Rhiraven Gallente Epic Empire Exa Nation	Posted - 2007.10.15 20:23:00 - [30] NECRO THREAD NECRO THREAD

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