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Hulk Invention Success Rate - Symbiotic Figures - Quick Question

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Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.04.28 13:27:00 - [1] Edited by: Beldaws on 28/04/2007 13:26:11 I just have a quick question about Hulk invention using a Symbiotic Figures datafile. On average, how many attempts is it taking to get a success? I've had 14 failures in a row so far and I'm just trying to get an idea how many more datacores and datafiles that I need to purchase. I have level 4 skills. Thanks in advance for responding.
ShadowRat	Posted - 2007.04.28 16:24:00 - [2] Ello You can belive me or not... you have from 11.8 to 12.3% success chance... acordng to my last success formula. I dont know if it is still accurate... Have nice day
Pizi Gallente	Posted - 2007.04.28 19:43:00 - [3] Originally by: ShadowRat Ello You can belive me or not... you have from 11.8 to 12.3% success chance... acordng to my last success formula. I dont know if it is still accurate... Have nice day well then either your formula or i suck 18/0 here .......... _______________________________________________ EVEpedia[Deutsch/German] add
CaptianBlack Minmatar EFFI Reanchoring	Posted - 2007.04.28 19:59:00 - [4] same here.. lots of attemts with covetor max run bpc's.. but zip so far.. skills are 3/3/4.. i won't mention the 'N' word yet.. but a'nerf is e'nerf.. around 700m down the pan just on bpc's and data-cores & decryptors.. even max run expanded cargo I's with increased runs decryptor, is only dropping 19run bpc's.. kinda poor.. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ http://www.internationalhero.co.uk/c/capblak.htm
WTF	Posted - 2007.04.28 23:38:00 - [5] omg noes we can't totally ruin the t2 bpo owners to where they need to pay people to take their built modules waaaaah
Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.04.29 03:05:00 - [6] There always has to be at least one idiot that has to say something totally stupid that has nothing to do with the current post. Go find somewhere else to troll noob. Originally by: WTF omg noes we can't totally ruin the t2 bpo owners to where they need to pay people to take their built modules waaaaah
Trinity Faetal 0utbreak	Posted - 2007.04.29 06:11:00 - [7] giving hellmarr isk during the dev chat was one way to remove isk from the game.. this is another . hulk invention is high risk/high profit unfortunatly. -- What goes around, goes around, goes around, Comes all the way back around.
Meau	Posted - 2007.04.29 09:47:00 - [8] Edited by: Meau on 29/04/2007 09:53:12 I agree to Trinity, its high risk high profit. Though some people will tell you if you have the isk there are safer ways to earn similar profits. The daily isk turnaround if you want to get steady is results is staggering. Chance of success with 4/4/4 is around 10+-3%, derived from a sample of 120+ tries. Largest number of consecutive failures was 24. And SHADOWRAT. Can you please spare the public of your formula and your results. Your motivation and drive is laudible, but formulaes where you multiply lots of numbers around 1 and claim if you get 1.9 out that 90% and 1 is 0% is not only totally unscientific, but unmathematic. While for people with some knowledge of mathematics it may be only embarrasing, the general public can be misled. I hope its not intentional, but you are spreading misinformation.
The Fitz	Posted - 2007.04.29 11:35:00 - [9] I put in with no decryptor, and got 1/3. Single run BPC. I just put in my first one with the lowest success decryptor, and managed to fluke it first go, 10 run -8 me BPC... I expect the average is somewhere around 1/8. Still means you could at times go 20 in a row with no success... Or others 1/1 :o
Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.04.29 12:29:00 - [10] Thanks for all the responses. It gives me a better feel on how many tries it is taking others to get a bpc. I put in 5 more tries yesterday so I'll see how those turn out in a couple hours.

Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.04.29 12:36:00 - [11] Edited by: Beldaws on 29/04/2007 12:35:20 I'll have to agree on the high profit part of that statement. It doesn't seem to be high risk yet. So far the only risk is whether your profit is high or medium. I definately could have made the same return or better through other investments, but this is something different to try. Besides, I need a few more Hulks for my personal use and this is still cheaper than buying them from someone else. Originally by: Meau I agree to Trinity, its high risk high profit. Though some people will tell you if you have the isk there are safer ways to earn similar profits. The daily isk turnaround if you want to get more or less steady results(by dealing in large numbers) is staggering. My chance of success with 4/4/4 is around 10+-3%, derived from a sample of 120+ tries. Largest number of consecutive failures was 24.
Meau	Posted - 2007.04.29 13:45:00 - [12] Edited by: Meau on 29/04/2007 13:47:20 Originally by: Beldaws Edited by: Beldaws on 29/04/2007 12:35:20 I'll have to agree on the high profit part of that statement. It doesn't seem to be high risk yet. So far the only risk is whether your profit is high or medium. If you have the isk to keep it running for some time yes ;). Isk breed isk. But imagine some player with less than a few billion isk to start with, buying the interface for 600M, starting invention and getting more than 20 fails in a row. Could hurt. And there are currently lots of ways to lose or risk money doing hulk invention, depending on type of bpc and decryptor you use, among other things. (but i agree, if you are doing it right(and figuring it out isnt exactly rocket science) and you had the cash to start with, profits are high and risk is low, or i wouldnt have done 120+ runs so far, would i? ^^)
Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.04.29 14:14:00 - [13] Good point. If someone threw every isk they had into this then getting 20 fails in a row would be a little scary. 17 failures in a row for me now. More finishing later today so I'll keep my fingers crossed on those. Originally by: Meau If you have the isk to keep it running for some time yes ;). Isk breed isk. But imagine some player with less than a few billion isk to start with, buying the interface for 600M, starting invention and getting more than 20 fails in a row. Could hurt. And there are currently lots of ways to lose or risk money doing hulk invention, depending on type of bpc and decryptor you use, among other things. (but i agree, if you are doing it right(and figuring it out isnt exactly rocket science) and you had the cash to start with, profits are high and risk is low, or i wouldnt have done 120+ runs so far, would i? ^^)
ShadowRat	Posted - 2007.04.29 19:36:00 - [14] All you want to know are posted already. All my attemps (hulk invention) and 2 times 'proposition' of formula. Nothing more or less.. Quote: lots of numbers around 1 and claim if you get 1.9 out thats 90% and 1 is 0% is not only totally unscientific, but unmathematic. And I dont know why you dont understand this... If you OLNY LEARN how to count with stiks and apples... and you dont imagine how to count with coconuts or somting diferent .... that will be hard to discous about anything. This is only interpretation of numbers.... if 1.9 => 90% and 1.0 =>0 % you have all to IMAGINE (or recalculate) rest... 1.45 => 45 % in example... What is hard here? I can put more calculation to formula that give you simply % succes ratio, but why? This formlu will be less readable and I know for shure you will start to disscous about dots and why it have 3 rows and why not 2... No point in this. We disscous here how to BUILD this... Anyway you can simply skip my posts... but I'm suprised that you dont want to know why this works or dont... Have nice day
Siopaos Soltueur Gallente Pegasus Mining and Securities	Posted - 2007.04.29 19:41:00 - [15] just keep at it beld
The Fitz	Posted - 2007.04.29 21:34:00 - [16] Ok, I'm scared now, so far 2 successes from 2 on making the 10 run BPCs... now I guess I have to prep for 18 failures.... Mind you, I did lose a capital ship this week so perhaps it's my luck balancing out.
Meau	Posted - 2007.04.30 07:15:00 - [17] Edited by: Meau on 30/04/2007 07:12:57 Originally by: ShadowRat All you want to know are posted already. All my attemps (hulk invention) and 2 times 'proposition' of formula. Nothing more or less.. Quote: lots of numbers around 1 and claim if you get 1.9 out thats 90% and 1 is 0% is not only totally unscientific, but unmathematic. And I dont know why you dont understand this... If you OLNY LEARN how to count with stiks and apples... and you dont imagine how to count with coconuts or somting diferent .... that will be hard to discous about anything. This is only interpretation of numbers.... if 1.9 => 90% and 1.0 =>0 % you have all to IMAGINE (or recalculate) rest... 1.45 => 45 % in example... What is hard here? I can put more calculation to formula that give you simply % succes ratio, but why? This formlu will be less readable and I know for shure you will start to disscous about dots and why it have 3 rows and why not 2... No point in this. We disscous here how to BUILD this... Anyway you can simply skip my posts... but I'm suprised that you dont want to know why this works or dont... Have nice day I am, but believe me, i do have a fairly good understanding of what the formulae looks like ;). While i do agree that as long as it works(which i doubt, but thats besides the point), "counting" using a slightly different set of math is of course possible, and if it works it may have its merits. Still i am absolutely sure that CCP is using standard math, and a formulae roughly looking like: Base chance(0.2 to 0.4) * skill modifiers(1 to 1.something) * decryptor modifier(0.4 to 1.3) * some part with meta level in it(probably 0.5 to 1 or something) Thus you get a result between somthing like 0.05 to 1, which using standard math is the definition of 5% to 100%, without inventing new weird math. So even in case your formula works at the moment(last time i checked it didnt, but was 2 weeks ago) it will never be able to fully emulate the real formula used in game, and thus always fall short. Please dont take the above personally, but using the same math everybody and CCP uses would probably profit you and all readers more.
Dominique Vasilkovsky Techmart Industries	Posted - 2007.04.30 09:16:00 - [18] My success rate for 66 Hulk jobs is 12%, highest number of consecutive fails 19. Screw t3. I'm waiting for t20. Just like t2, but it's free. - xArmagedunx
Lord Dynastron Mystical Knights Legionnaire Services Ltd.	Posted - 2007.04.30 17:34:00 - [19] I have failed the last 10 tries....then ran out of Mechanical Engineering Datacores... I would be willing to bet there was a stealth nerf in there at the beggining of all this mess because the first 8-10-ish tries I ever did succeeded
Docain Skull Knockers	Posted - 2007.04.30 20:16:00 - [20] If there is a stealth nerf, it would be nice to know if it just applies to doing lots of invention for exactly one item (hulks, hulks and hulks), or applies to all invention jobs in general. But somehow i doubt CCP will publish such information... :/

Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.04.30 21:02:00 - [21] Blackjack! Oh wait wrong game. 21st attempt was the lucky one. Got my Hulk BPC today.
Siopaos Soltueur Gallente Pegasus Mining and Securities	Posted - 2007.04.30 23:34:00 - [22] Originally by: Beldaws Blackjack! Oh wait wrong game. 21st attempt was the lucky one. Got my Hulk BPC today. wrong game, right number. grats mate
Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.05.02 15:16:00 - [23] Only took 15 tries to get the 2nd Hulk BPC.
Heavan Caldari Technology and Manufacturing	Posted - 2007.05.03 19:48:00 - [24] Are all of those attempts with the use of Datacores and Symbiotic figures ? Are Covetors thrown into the guzzler to account for the 12% success rate ? Just curiois what went into the attempt ..
Christopher Dalran Gallente Deadly Alliance	Posted - 2007.05.03 20:42:00 - [25] Edited by: Christopher Dalran on 03/05/2007 20:42:37 Try using a decyryptor that does not give you 40% the chance to suceed than if you used no decryptor at all. Ship sucess rates are so low because of the pathetic meta level on the t1 variants. Module sucess rates are high because of the high meta levels on the best named versions. You realy should be allowed to use the t2 version in its own invention job in conjunction with the t1 version BPO (reason being that named variants simply dont exist for ships). I believe the fact that named versions dont exist was simply overlooked and thats why ship invention is so risky. Because of this its not worth your isk to use decryptors on ship invention jobs, however with the High metal levels on named version those decryptors end up making a huge difference on module invention jobs (only speaking about the multiplier for sucess rates). Please CCP, let us use t2 versions in their own invention jobs. ------------------------------- C.D's Formula for success ------------------------------- Credit Card = Game Time Card Gametime Card = ISK Therefore Credit Card = ISK.
Domosan Caldari Incoherent Inc	Posted - 2007.05.03 21:41:00 - [26] Originally by: Christopher Dalran Edited by: Christopher Dalran on 03/05/2007 20:42:37 Try using a decyryptor that does not give you 40% the chance to suceed than if you used no decryptor at all. Ship sucess rates are so low because of the pathetic meta level on the t1 variants. Module sucess rates are high because of the high meta levels on the best named versions. You realy should be allowed to use the t2 version in its own invention job in conjunction with the t1 version BPO (reason being that named variants simply dont exist for ships). I believe the fact that named versions dont exist was simply overlooked and thats why ship invention is so risky. Because of this its not worth your isk to use decryptors on ship invention jobs, however with the High metal levels on named version those decryptors end up making a huge difference on module invention jobs (only speaking about the multiplier for sucess rates). Please CCP, let us use t2 versions in their own invention jobs. Having to buy a hulk which costs 350 million on the market will make the bpc cost way, way too high. I would rather keep things the same, except code for ships to automatically have a higher meta level or change decryptors to have separate decrytors for modules and ships. The ship decrytors could have significantly higher success modifiers built into them to offset the meta level 1 of T1 ships. Regards
Lord Dynastron Mystical Knights Legionnaire Services Ltd.	Posted - 2007.05.03 23:30:00 - [27] Originally by: Domosan Originally by: Christopher Dalran Edited by: Christopher Dalran on 03/05/2007 20:42:37 Try using a decyryptor that does not give you 40% the chance to suceed than if you used no decryptor at all. Ship sucess rates are so low because of the pathetic meta level on the t1 variants. Module sucess rates are high because of the high meta levels on the best named versions. You realy should be allowed to use the t2 version in its own invention job in conjunction with the t1 version BPO (reason being that named variants simply dont exist for ships). I believe the fact that named versions dont exist was simply overlooked and thats why ship invention is so risky. Because of this its not worth your isk to use decryptors on ship invention jobs, however with the High metal levels on named version those decryptors end up making a huge difference on module invention jobs (only speaking about the multiplier for sucess rates). Please CCP, let us use t2 versions in their own invention jobs. Having to buy a hulk which costs 350 million on the market will make the bpc cost way, way too high. I would rather keep things the same, except code for ships to automatically have a higher meta level or change decryptors to have separate decrytors for modules and ships. The ship decrytors could have significantly higher success modifiers built into them to offset the meta level 1 of T1 ships. Regards Hulks are down to 220m... there were a few at 210 but...well... we will stick at 220. What is the break even price for Hulks? At 10% success rate... and 20mil a covetor....200mil is about as low as you can go no?
Dominique Vasilkovsky Techmart Industries	Posted - 2007.05.04 00:40:00 - [28] Originally by: Lord Dynastron Hulks are down to 220m... there were a few at 210 but...well... we will stick at 220. What is the break even price for Hulks? At 10% success rate... and 20mil a covetor....200mil is about as low as you can go no? The profit margin will reach zero around 110mill unless the datacores drops drastically in price. snipnot needed - hutch
Beldaws Gallente Just Me and My Alts	Posted - 2007.05.04 01:56:00 - [29] I haven't been adding Covetors. Doesn't seem to be worth it to me. Originally by: Heavan Are all of those attempts with the use of Datacores and Symbiotic figures ? Are Covetors thrown into the guzzler to account for the 12% success rate ? Just curiois what went into the attempt ..
MaVla Minmatar	Posted - 2007.05.04 08:10:00 - [30] 32 attempts so far 3 times successful. 1 x 10 run (using 10 run copy) 2 x 9 run (using 1 run copy) MaVla



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