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matarkhan
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Posted - 2007.05.17 04:40:00 -
[1]
Is this happening to anyone else?
I've got 4/4/4 for the low-end mod I'm inventing.
I've been running 4 jobs a day for over a month now, with a 50% success rate.
Over the last week, success rate has plummeted. I've gotten 10 of the last 12 jobs, and failed 9 in a row.
I've spoken to a few people in the Invention channel who've had the same experience.
Is this happening to other people as well?
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Haffrage
Sharks With Frickin' Laser Beams
Mercenary Coalition
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Posted - 2007.05.17 04:46:00 -
[2]
There will always be people who suddenly have crap luck. Same way if you play dice you might get snake eyes every game for a month. It's not likely, but there IS a chance you'll fail continuously. It might even be less than 1%, but it's still there.
That said, no, I'm not experiencing a drastic fall in success. I've failed a few more times than my average today, but it's all in the game.
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Tech 2 Tier 2 Battlecruisers |
Jmanis Catharg
Caldari
Dusk Blade
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Posted - 2007.05.17 04:52:00 -
[3]
Yeah,,, unforutnately due to EVE's quite regimented game mechanics, people get too used to regularity, and in a chance based system, get surprised when chance just doesnt roll with them one day.
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Gnulpie
Minmatar
Miner Tech
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Posted - 2007.05.17 05:26:00 -
[4]
It happens. Usually I have a success rate of 60% but the last few jobs were 17 of 20 which is a success rate of 85%. Then I also had times where the rate was rather bad.
It is chance based. Sometimes you have better times, sometimes you have not so good times.
And you say you had 10/12 success and then 9 failures. That is 10/21 in total. Which is a success rate of 45%. Compared to your average 50% I cannot see anything that wrong.
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Setana Manoro
Gallente
Firefly Inc.
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Posted - 2007.05.17 06:25:00 -
[5]
Edited by: Setana Manoro on 17/05/2007 06:25:36
Actually the probability to fail 9 in a row when you have 50% chance / job is 0.195% ... :)
PS: Actually I am wrong, might be even lower than that, will dig up my old statistics course.
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http://dojo.fi/~rancid/loituma__.swfAlways look on the bright side |
Jim McGregor
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Posted - 2007.05.17 06:25:00 -
[6]
 Originally by: Setana Manoro
Actually the probability to fail 9 in a row when you have 50% chance / job is 0.195% ... :)
Hey, this reminds me of how ECM used to work... 
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Eve Wiki | Eve Tribune |
matarkhan
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Posted - 2007.05.17 13:29:00 -
[7]
Originally by: Gnulpie
And you say you had 10/12 success and then 9 failures. That is 10/21 in total. Which is a success rate of 45%. Compared to your average 50% I cannot see anything that wrong.
Well, I was saying that i had 10/12 failures, with 9 in a row.
Perhaps it is just luck, I will keep trying and see how it goes.
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Demarcus Gainah
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Posted - 2007.05.17 13:52:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Setana Manoro
Edited by: Setana Manoro on 17/05/2007 06:25:36
Actually the probability to fail 9 in a row when you have 50% chance / job is 0.195% ... :)
PS: Actually I am wrong, might be even lower than that, will dig up my old statistics course.
Well, if you take it as a whole it should be much, much lower. But really, the best way to look at it is simply "50/50" for each individual job.
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Rusla
Significant Figures
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Posted - 2007.05.17 17:09:00 -
[9]
I've noticed that in the last 2-3 weeks, my average success rate over maybe 100 attempts has dropped from about 50% to about 30%.
Personally I think that CCP have been tweaking the chances of a successful invention. The size of the drop in successful jobs, coupled with the amount of jobs I've been doing suggests that it's a bit more than a random fluctuation.
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Ehranavaar
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Posted - 2007.05.17 17:45:00 -
[10]
speaking of dice the wierdest things i have seen so far are a rolled sequence of 17 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 on 3d6. i watched another guy roll percentile dice and get 100 no less than 8x in a row. to see either sequence in a lifetime would be amazing much less both. 
they were not crooked dice in either case as they've shown no such strangeness since.
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