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Kazuo Ishiguro
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Posted - 2007.05.18 16:19:00 -
[1]
I'm not the first person to raise this topic:
http://oldforums.eveonline.com/?a=topic&threadID=501464
However, I'm curious to know where people think that datacore prices will eventually settle. Demand for them has never been higher, and the volumes traded have been increasing for months as more people acquire the skills for invention.
Mechanical Engineering has fallen behind Molecular Engineering over the last few days - the typical sell price has fallen by about 25% (~1m per unit). Most of the other more expensive datacores have dropped in price as well. I'm putting off buying for as long as possible 
My theory is that datacore prices, in the long term, will drop to the lowest state where people can still fund a second account using game time codes bought with isk gained purely from selling datacores. I think we have some way to go until that happens, and I'm not sure of the numbers (I'm a bit unfamiliar with this aspect of the game).
It'll probably take a very long time for this equilibrium to be reached, as so many players have accumulated vast stocks of RP while waiting to T2 BPOs offers that have never emerged. Would anyone qualified to comment care to venture a guess as to how long this might take?
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Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant tanking |
Jinx Barker
GFB Scientific
Interstellar Corporate Alliance
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Posted - 2007.05.18 19:18:00 -
[2]
Keep in mind that RPs have been collecting for many yeas, on thousands of accounts, there is a veritable plethora of Datacores out there. And I am willing to bet that until the lottery system is over we will not see nearly 75% of RPs cashed in.
My guess it, as soon as the lottery is finished the datacores will drop well bellow 500k/unit - for a long time. Till they are either bought up and used or bought up and used for market manipulation.
My ALTs, collectively, have over 4 million RPs all over the industry spectrum, too bad no BPO yet. Stupid Lottery. 
I am not going to cash any of the RPs till Lottery is finished and done with, since I hope to get a BPO before it ends.
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Shadarle
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Posted - 2007.05.18 19:56:00 -
[3]
Edited by: Shadarle on 18/05/2007 19:54:47
I think 500k is a very high number considering how many data cores will flood the market when the lottery ends. There will be insane amounts of data cores being sold... and with no one saving up anymore it will stay low in price.
IMO CCP may end up regretting how cheap they've made data cores to purchase. I wouldn't be surprised if they drop under 100k assuming the supply of the other invention items is high enough. If the other items lack the supply then people will have no use for all those data cores and they will be basically worthless.
Tanking Setups Compared
Stacking Penalty / Resists Explained |
Roemy Schneider
BINFORD
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Posted - 2007.05.18 20:44:00 -
[4]
there's still a lot of interesting blueprints available... i'll give the lottery another two months before it really looses attractiveness.
in addition, more and more people have picked up r&d when the new round was initiated, some have started mech.eng. just for the isk - and they're probably still skilling further, and the dream of self sufficiency drives even more introverted players towards RP...
before datacores got "cheaper", mech.eng. circulated for roughly 20mil. with more people in that field, i'd say 500k if we're lucky
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"Ready for your... sponge bath?" |
Marena Bijo
Black Ice Industries
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Posted - 2007.05.18 22:59:00 -
[5]
When d'you think the lottery will end? I'd heard talk about them Accelerating the end of it.
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Heikki
Gallente
Wreckless Abandon
Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2007.05.19 00:54:00 -
[6]
Your point about datacore equilibrium price is insightful indeed; might even rise up GTC prices a bit.
Checking the fields on some of my agents still show dozens and dozens blue prints available, with bunch of ship ones as well. When there are only few patents left, the R&D points start to lose their lottery value and we'll see the crash.
-Lasse
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Grash Freedom
Gallente
MAZA Solutions
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Posted - 2007.05.19 02:56:00 -
[7]
 Originally by: Marena Bijo
When d'you think the lottery will end? I'd heard talk about them Accelerating the end of it.
End of May probably, you can never be sure tho
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Jinx Barker
GFB Scientific
Interstellar Corporate Alliance
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Posted - 2007.05.19 21:28:00 -
[8]
Originally by: Marena Bijo
When d'you think the lottery will end? I'd heard talk about them Accelerating the end of it.
I think CCP is doing "measured" acceleration of the T2 Release. In other words, they have to balance the possibility of Invention overwhelming the T2 BPO Viability, and juxtaposed it against maintaining a healthy economy in T2 industry.
I believe that the "accelerated" schedule Oveur was talking about is more of a candy to soothe a crying baby, read players. In all reality, I think, at current prices - we will not see certain BPOs again.
We will not see Vagabond, Hulk, Deimos, Cerberus, given out, even if they are listed. Whatever you currently see that hit the "rock-bottom" prices
My Guess is - Auction will end at the End of August/Begining of September.
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Ho1iday
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Posted - 2007.05.20 02:53:00 -
[9]
Problem I think with the accumulated RPs people have are that too many of them are in Starship Engineering, thats the reason for the low price of those cores atm, compared to some of the less popular research fields.
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Heikki
Gallente
Wreckless Abandon
Triumvirate.
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Posted - 2007.05.21 09:57:00 -
[10]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
datacore prices .. eventually
Some fuzzy math based on your idea, trying to get idea of cores value after BPO lottery.
Say character farmer can reasonably quickly train 3 chars to use 5 agents on one field, and raise the standings to get access to lv3 agents. That would mean about 3 chars * 5 agents * 60 rp/day. That is 900 rps, or 18 datacores per day, or 1620 cores per 90-day GTC period.
Hence such farmer would get the account for free as long as cores sold for amount of GTC cost divided by 1620, or 370M/1620 = 220k per core on non-startship research fields. Calculating for 6 lv4 agents the price would around 140k.
This is assuming the eventual resale value of the chars would counter the grinding needed to get standings with the agents. And that CCP won't further tweak the system.
-Lasse
who did cash his 3000 nanite cores
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Kazuo Ishiguro
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Posted - 2007.05.21 11:14:00 -
[11]
Edited by: Kazuo Ishiguro on 21/05/2007 11:12:19
Originally by: Heikki
This is assuming the eventual resale value of the chars would counter the grinding needed to get standings with the agents. And that CCP won't further tweak the system.
If I was going to do this, I'd only grind standings once- with this character- to gain access to level 4 R&D agents in several fields. Then I'd start a new corp with this character and have all the alts join it. Having no standings, the alts would take on those of the corp and would be able to use all the same agents as soon as they trained the science skills to level 4 (I think). This would reduce the resale value of the alts, but as they'd pay for themselves indefinitely I doubt that that would be a problem.
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Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant tanking |
William Alex
Caldari
Viscosity
Dark Synergy
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Posted - 2007.05.21 20:06:00 -
[12]
Originally by: Kazuo Ishiguro
...If I was going to do this, I'd only grind standings once- with this character- to gain access to level 4 R&D agents in several fields. Then I'd start a new corp with this character and have all the alts join it. Having no standings, the alts would take on those of the corp and would be able to use all the same agents as soon as they trained the science skills to level 4 (I think). ...
Problem with this solution is, having corp standings doesn't grant access to agents. I've tried this exact strategy and when it didn't work I petitioned it. The GM who responded assured me that corp standings doesn't grant access to agents.
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Kazuo Ishiguro
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Posted - 2007.05.21 22:38:00 -
[13]
Hmm - so that trick works for installing jump clones and anchoring high sec starbases but not for agents? 
That'd be a pain to set up, then.
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Spreadsheets: Top speed calculation - Halo Implant tanking |
Svanna Gulmi
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Posted - 2007.05.22 08:28:00 -
[14]
The datacore crash over the last few weeks was player made! I've been playing that market for a few months and have been making a nice living from it, thats over in the short run sadly All i can say is there are some VERY smart traders and customers, and some VERY dumb traders out there.
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Dreck Morrison
Amarr
No Quarter.
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Posted - 2007.05.22 13:59:00 -
[15]
I decided I didn't need 10 nanite engineering research agents and rebalanced out 4 of them this last week. Switched each into 4 areas to make sure I have a "free supply" of data cores.
1) Molecular
2) Rocket
3) Hydromagnetics
4) High Engergy Physics.
Once the lottery is over I will move another one to Graviton and one to Electromagnetic.
I thought this was the best way to be in ahead of the "coming crash" and still have some bets in the bpo game.
The 4 cashed out nanite agents made 3600 datacores all by themselves (currently 1.5M isk per unit!!). I will be quite happy if they sell for that amount.....the only question is should I use the profits to buy a tech 2 bpo?
Dreck
(p.s. before you laugh at my nanite agents, they have brought me 4 tech 2 bpos in the last 2 years!). From what I read on the forums I should be happy with that hit rate. |
Ulrich Sternaxe
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Posted - 2007.05.31 14:43:00 -
[16]
Edited by: Ulrich Sternaxe on 31/05/2007 14:42:45
noob question: so once you have the standing, do you still need to do missions or anything else with those alts or do the RP come in automatically and you never have to have another look at them until you decide to cash out?
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Casper Blake
Caldari
Science and Trade Institute
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Posted - 2007.05.31 16:14:00 -
[17]
Originally by: Ulrich Sternaxe
Edited by: Ulrich Sternaxe on 31/05/2007 14:42:45
noob question: so once you have the standing, do you still need to do missions or anything else with those alts or do the RP come in automatically and you never have to have another look at them until you decide to cash out?
The research agents give you an amount of RP daily automatically. You can do 1 mission each day for the agent to double that amount.
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Ulrich Sternaxe
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Posted - 2007.06.01 09:27:00 -
[18]
So the only time investment is the time you spent on getting the standing? Some investment in skills and you're all set? Never look back and keep doing what you would normally do and get a passive income that way without ever having to lift a finger for it again?
Am I correct, or is there something I'm overlooking?
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Shin Ra
BURN EDEN
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Posted - 2007.06.01 10:22:00 -
[19]
The datacore market can be compared to a real life commodities market.
Right now there is huge supply because everyone has lots of rp. When sales were first allowed, limited people moved into the field but in doing so they sued up their entire supply. Demand is not going anywhere, but supply is varied. One of the biggest factors here is that supply takes a long time to reach equilibrium. Right now, this is not an issue but consider this:
As supply gets used up more an more, it certain cores will be demanded more than others. But, supply takes a considerable amount of time to catch up due to the time it takes to enter the market. Lets say in 6 months laser physics suddenly become popular for one reason or another. It takes a certain amount of time for suppliers to generate sufficient supply to match this. During this time, prices will soar.
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Wyke Mossari
Gallente
Solar Research Corporation
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Posted - 2007.06.01 16:44:00 -
[20]
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 01/06/2007 16:44:00
The two top Roden agents in Quantum physics have nothing predictable. I'm guessing the rest are the same.
There has also seen a 30% drop in the value of Quantum datacores from over 2m each to 1.2m in Sinq. So it looks like these are flooding onto the market.
I really wish I could short these.
/me shakes head and looks for another way to exploit the fall.
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Baun
4S Corporation
Morsus Mihi
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Posted - 2007.06.01 19:20:00 -
[21]
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 01/06/2007 16:44:00
The two top Roden agents in Quantum physics have nothing predictable. I'm guessing the rest are the same.
There has also seen a 30% drop in the value of Quantum datacores from over 2m each to 1.2m in Sinq. So it looks like these are flooding onto the market.
I really wish I could short these.
/me shakes head and looks for another way to exploit the fall.
Wow I didn't even check this before I dumped mine yesterday. Looks like I had some nice blind luck.
The Enemy's Gate is Down
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Nemotal
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Posted - 2007.06.01 22:44:00 -
[22]
Originally by: Baun
Originally by: Wyke Mossari
Edited by: Wyke Mossari on 01/06/2007 16:44:00
The two top Roden agents in Quantum physics have nothing predictable. I'm guessing the rest are the same.
There has also seen a 30% drop in the value of Quantum datacores from over 2m each to 1.2m in Sinq. So it looks like these are flooding onto the market.
I really wish I could short these.
/me shakes head and looks for another way to exploit the fall.
Wow I didn't even check this before I dumped mine yesterday. Looks like I had some nice blind luck.
*cough* yes, blind luck.. bet someone hates you now :P
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